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乌克兰战争与大国竞争
https://issuu.com/esdu/docs/esdu_2022_3/s/17249424
欧洲安全与防务联盟 欧洲安全与防务联盟 第 44 期
欧洲安全与防务联盟
摘自欧洲安全与防务联盟第 44 期，第 38 页
文章来自：欧洲安全与防务联盟第 44 期
欧洲的军事机动性...
欧洲有可能成为三巨头的玩具 乌克兰战争和大国竞争
作者：Harald Kujat，将军（退役）、前德国国防部长、前北约军事委员会主席，Lögow
21 世纪的标志是中华民国 (PRC) 作为经济和军事世界强国的崛起，以及美利坚合众国 (US)、俄罗斯和中国等大国之间的竞争。 乌克兰战争清楚地表明，只有中国，而不是俄罗斯，才能取代美国成为世界头号强国。 美国国家安全战略 (10/2022) 指出，“中华人民共和国是唯一一个既有意重塑国际秩序，又拥有越来越多的经济、外交、军事和技术力量来重塑国际秩序的竞争对手。北京有雄心 扩大印太势力范围，成为世界领先力量”。
美国和俄罗斯的野心
美国在乌克兰战争中不言而喻的地缘政治目标是在政治、经济和军事上削弱俄罗斯，以便能够集中力量对抗中国。 对于这场冲突，美国希望将欧洲国家纳入一个与对抗俄罗斯同样团结的合作伙伴和盟友网络。 在这方面，北约正在搭建一个重要的桥梁。 美国成功地让北约与澳大利亚、日本和韩国等地区盟友一起对抗中国。 2022 年 6 月 29 日通过的北约战略构想指出，它将“解决中国对欧洲大西洋安全构成的系统性挑战，并确保北约有持久的能力保障盟国的国防和安全。” 俄罗斯希望保持与美国同等的战略核超级大国地位，减少美国在欧洲 — — 至少在东欧 — — 的影响力，并通过继续成为不可或缺的原材料和能源供应国来确保其世界强国地位。
欧洲的地位不稳固
能源供应依赖俄罗斯，安全依赖美国，经济和技术上尤其是数字化上依赖美国和中国，内部矛盾又面临着自身的挑战，欧洲在大国实力计算中处于劣势。 越来越落后了。 欧洲国家与美国并肩站在一起，声援哈拉尔·库贾特·乌克兰将军（已退役），该将军曾担任国际法军事委员会主席，因违反国际法而受到袭击，并于 2002 年至 2005 年在布鲁塞尔的北约总部提供支持。 政治、经济、金融和军事 1942年出生，加入德国空军支援国家。 1959 年的欧洲部队。1980 年至 1884 年间，联盟 (EU) 打算进一步扩大对乌克兰的军事援助，他曾担任过两任德国总理，后来被任命为 ISM/成员国和北约武器交付部主任。 他于 1998 年通过在波恩国防部训练乌克兰武装部队并于 2000 年成为德国首席部队的训练而担任政策总监。 为此，在柏林成立了“欧洲防务联盟”（CHOD）。 乌克兰军事支援团”（EUMAM乌克兰）和培训委员会
“乌克兰战争是一个警告信号，只会产生一个后果：欧洲坚决走上地缘政治自我主张之路，在政治、经济、技术以及最后但并非最不重要的军事上。”
两个成员国将制定指令，尽管这增加了乌克兰战争升级的风险，包括战斗的加剧和延长以及可能的扩大甚至核升级。
乌克兰战争对欧洲的影响
在大国地缘政治博弈的背景下，乌克兰战争将欧洲带到了十字路口。 这场战争不仅关系到乌克兰的安全和领土完整，从长远来看，它还关系到欧洲大陆所有国家都拥有一席之地的欧洲安全与和平秩序。 然而，这场战争对作为工商业所在地的欧洲造成的巨大全球经济后果正变得越来越明显。 在针对俄罗斯的“经济战”中，欧盟对其实施了广泛的制裁。 这些举措的目的是迫使俄罗斯停止对乌克兰的攻击，并假设制裁既不会影响能源价格，也不会损害欧洲国家。 事实恰恰相反。 为了消除美国的保留意见，德国已经接受了重大的经济劣势。 长期以来，美国看到了合作的风险。
将德国资本和德国技术与俄罗斯原材料和俄罗斯生产潜力相结合。 然而，德国现在已经切断了来自俄罗斯的能源供应，并通过财政捐赠、武器和军事装备的供应，以及对俄罗斯的制裁等方式向乌克兰提供重要支持。 德国经济的长期损害，特别是预计今年冬季能源紧急情况的后果以及对德国经济国际竞争力的影响，也将对整个欧盟产生重大的长期影响。 更糟糕的是，还有针对中国的经济限制迹象。 如果对德国和欧洲经济有利的全球化进一步受到限制，将对依赖世界贸易的德国经济和整个欧洲造成不可挽回的损害，包括大规模的去工业化。 但尽管对俄罗斯的制裁造成了挫折，欧洲仍然是一个经济力量因素。 因此，对于中国来说，欧洲是否会屈服于美国的地缘政治目标，还是坚持自己的路线，这一问题至关重要。 因为对于中国能否成功取代美国成为世界主导力量，欧洲有发言权。
新的集团和不确定的未来
乌克兰战争鼓励了相互竞争的地缘政治集团的形成。 随着美国、欧盟和北约的关系越来越密切，围绕中国和俄罗斯的第二个地缘政治集团已经出现。 其核心由金砖国家、巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非组成，目前人口占世界人口的40%（G7+日本：12.5%）。 此外，中国、印度、伊朗、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、巴基斯坦、俄罗斯、塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦还成立了上海合作集团。 其他州也想加入这两个组织。 西方民主国家与欧盟联合起来，既没有找到阻止乌克兰战争的方法，也没有找到遏制乌克兰战争的方法，也没有通过平衡相关国家的利益来通过谈判实现和平。 相反，欧洲大陆的命运将由这场战争的两个主要参与者决定：美国和俄罗斯。 尽管俄罗斯最近在军事上取得了成功，但它显然无法实现其所有政治战争目标。 美国也无法成功消除俄罗斯这一地缘政治对手。 此外，必须假设军事上击败俄罗斯不符合中国的利益。 美国意识到，中国将利用这样的发展既可以缓解俄罗斯的压力，又可以维护自己的利益，但美国无法发动双线战争。
一颗定时炸弹
因此，20世纪90年代“震惊与敬畏”理论的提出者、美国战略专家哈兰·厄尔曼就乌克兰战争关切地问道：“美国对中国展开战略双线军事对抗，是否犯了非受迫性错误？” 还有俄罗斯呢？” 哈伦将美国的双线战略描述为“定时炸弹”。 对于欧洲来说也是如此。 不仅美国政府，甚至欧洲人都明显低估了他们参与乌克兰事务的地缘战略动力。 乌克兰战争是一个警告信号，只会产生一个后果：欧洲坚决走上地缘政治自我主张之路，在政治、经济、技术以及最后但并非最不重要的军事上。
The Ukraine war and the rivalry of the great powers
https://issuu.com/esdu/docs/esdu_2022_3/s/17249424
Military mobility for European...
Europe risks becoming a toy for the Big Three The Ukraine war and the rivalry of the great powers
by Harald Kujat, General (ret), former German Chief of Defence and former Chairman Military Committee NATO, Lögow
The 21st century is marked by the rise of the Peoples’ Republic of China (PRC) as an economic and military world power and by the rivalry between the great powers: the United States of America (US), Russia and China. The Ukraine war has made it clear that only China, and not Russia, can replace the US as the leading world power. The US National Security Strategy (10/2022) states that "the PRC is the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do it. Beijing has ambitions to create an enhanced sphere of influence in the IndoPacific and to become the world’s leading power”.
The ambitions of the US and Russia
It is the unspoken geopolitical goal of the US in the Ukraine war to weaken Russia politically, economically and militarily in order to be able to concentrate on the conflict with China. For this conflict, the US want to integrate the European states into a network of partners and allies of the same unity as against Russia. In this regard, NATO is forming an important bridge. The US has managed to position NATO against China alongside regional allies such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. The NATO Strategic Concept adopted on 29th June 2022 states that it will “address the systemic challenges posed by the PRC to EuroAtlantic security and ensure NATO’s enduring ability to guarantee the defense and security of Allies.” Russia wants to maintain its status as a strategic nuclear superpower equally with the US, reduce the influence of the US in Europe – at least in eastern Europe – and secure its position as a world power by staying an indispensable supplier of raw materials and energy.
Europe’s unconsolidated position
Dependent on Russia for energy supply and on the US for security, depending economically and technologically – especially in digitalisation – on both the US and China, struggling with selfmade challenges due to internal contradictions, Europe, in the power calculation of the great powers, is falling more and more behind. European states have stood shoulder to shoulder with the US in solidarity with General (ret.) Harald Kujat Ukraine, which was attacked in violation served as Chairman Military Committee of international law, and are providing at NATO HQ in Brussels from 2002–2005. political, economic, financial and miliBorn in 1942, he joined the German Air tary support to the country. The EuropeForce in 1959. Between 1980–1884 an Union (EU) intends to further expand he served two German Chancellor’s and military assistance to Ukraine through was then appointed as Dep Director ISM/ arms deliveries from Member States and NATO. He became in 1998 Director Policy through the training of Ukrainian armed at MOD Bonn and in 2000 German Chief forces. To this end, a “European Union of Defence (CHOD) in Berlin. Military Support Mission for Ukraine” (EUMAM Ukraine) and training com
“The war in Ukraine is a warning sign that can only have one consequence: resolutely taking the path to geopolitical self-assertion for Europe, politically, economically, technologically and, last but not least, militarily.”
mands will be formed in two Member States, even though this increases the risk of an escalation of the war in Ukraine, both with regard to an intensification and prolongation of the fighting and a possible expansion or even a nuclear escalation.
The impact of the Ukraine war on Europe
Against the background of the geopolitical rivalry of the great powers, the Ukraine war has brought Europe to a crossroads. This war is not only about Ukraine’s security and territorial integrity, but in the long term it is also about a European security and peace order, in which all the states of the European continent have their place. However, the dramatic global economic consequences of this war for Europe as an industrial and business location are becoming increasingly apparent. In the “economic war” against Russia, the EU has imposed extensive sanctions against it. These were started with the aim of forcing Russia to end its attack on Ukraine and on the assumption that the sanctions would neither affect energy prices nor harm European states. Exactly the opposite happened. Germany has accepted major economic disadvantages in order to dispel American reservations. For a long time, the US saw a risk in combining German capital and German technology with Russian raw materials and Russian production potential. However, Germany has now cut off energy supplies from Russia and is providing Ukraine with significant support – through financial donations, the supply of weapons and military equipment, and not to forget, the sanctions against Russia. The longterm damage to the German economy, in particular the consequences of the energy emergency expected for this winter and the effects on the international competitiveness of the German economy will also have a significant longterm impact on the entire European Union. To make matters worse, there are also signs of economic restrictions in relation to China. If globalisation, which has developed so beneficially for the German and European economies, is further restricted, irremediable damage will result for the German economy, which is dependent on world trade, and for Europe as a whole, including extensive deindustrialisation. But Europe is an economic power factor, despite the setbacks resulting from the sanctions against Russia. For China, therefore, the question of whether Europe will submit to US geopolitical goals or maintain its own course is of vital importance. Because Europe has a say in whether China succeeds in replacing the US as the dominant world power.
New blocs and an uncertain future
The war in Ukraine has encouraged the formation of competing geopolitical blocs. As the US, EU and NATO move closer together, a second geopolitical bloc has emerged around China and Russia. Its core is formed by the BRICS countries, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, which currently make up 40% of the world’s population (G7 + Japan: 12.5%). Furthermore, the Shanghai Cooperation Group was formed with China, India, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Other states want to join both groups. Western democracies, joined together in the European Union, have neither found a way to prevent the war in Ukraine nor contain it and achieve a negotiated peace by balancing the interests of the powers involved. Rather, the fate of the European continent will be decided by the two main players in this war: the US and Russia. Russia obviously cannot achieve all its political war goals despite its recent military successes. Neither will the US succeed in eliminating Russia as a geopolitical rival. Furthermore, it must be assumed that a military defeat of Russia would not be in China’s interest. The US is aware that China would use such a development both to relieve Russia and to assert its own interests, but that the US would not be able to wage a twofront war.
A ticking time bomb
The American strategy expert Harlan Ullman, author of the doctrine of “Shock and Awe” in the 1990s, therefore asks with concern, regarding the war in Ukraine: “Has the United States committed an unforced error by opening a strategic twofront military confrontation against China and Russia?” Harlan describes the American twofront strategy as a “ticking time bomb”. This is also true for Europe. Not only the American government but even Europeans have obviously underestimated the geostrategic dynamics of their engagement in Ukraine. The war in Ukraine is a warning sign that can only have one consequence: resolutely taking the path to geopolitical selfassertion for Europe, politically, economically, technologically and, last but not least, militarily.
