风萧萧_Frank
以文会友
游历中国，我清楚地意识到，中国很快就会成为世界上最强大的国家
Stephen Davies 15 June 2025
Dr. Stephen Davies, Faculty of Humanities, History McMaster University 教授， 麦克马斯特大学人文与历史学院
Stephen.Davies@viu.ca
中国统治世界
今年五月，我有幸在中国游历了一个月。在那里，很多事情引起了我的注意。总的来说，通过观察、与当地人的交流以及导游和其他人的介绍，我留下了一些深刻而清晰的印象。
首先，过去三十年甚至更短时间内建成的基础设施令人惊叹，不仅令人印象深刻，而且令人叹为观止。最引人注目的是自2005年左右以来修建的高铁网络。目前，此类线路总长3万英里，全部建于过去二十年。铁路网也得到了大规模扩建，包括高铁线路在内，总长已达9.6万英里，计划到2050年将其延伸至17万英里。根据外部观察人士的最佳估计，这项投资的回报率在6%到8%之间。由于该系统大部分是从零开始建造的，因此拥有与机场航站楼大小相当的全新大型车站。列车时速200英里，舒适干净，乘坐体验非常平稳，几乎感觉不到速度的提升。
1506 中国铁路1506 中国铁路
不仅仅是火车。中国各地还有一系列机场，其中大多数规模与欧洲主要国际机场相当。同样，这些机场都是全新的。铁路沿线是密集的长途高速公路网，以及现代化的省级和地方公路。中国拥有11.4万英里的高速公路，其余国家公路网总长130万英里（190万公里）。与铁路系统一样，中国也在不断延伸。需要注意的是，建设基础设施是一回事（西方国家并非如此），真正的挑战在于维护。
任何到访中国的人都会注意到，基础设施建设的另一个方面是城市发展。过去二十年，中国经历了一场戏剧性的城市发展进程，新城市如雨后春笋般涌现，老城区也新增了数百万套住房。这种发展呈现出一种独特的形式，即高楼林立、高密度。中国城镇的向上发展和向外扩张一样迅猛。城市中高楼林立，通常有30到40层。最初的印象是千篇一律，但仔细观察就会发现并非如此。大多数塔楼并非简单的盒子状，而是将装饰元素融入设计之中，看似单一的体量分解成风格相似的塔楼群。在地面层，可以清晰地看到每个塔楼群都被围起来，形成一个封闭式社区，零售和其他设施则位于塔楼的低层。因此，这些新城拥有高密度的模块化结构。
1506年中国道路地图1506年中国道路地图
中国城市发展的另一个特点是城市绿化程度高。到处都是树木和绿地，大部分树木显然是在过去三十年种植的。高速公路和主干道的支柱两侧爬满了常春藤，沿路摆放着成箱的花草，所有这些都得到了维护。这种模式被称为“海绵城市”，在高层住宅区、老旧的低层住宅区和超高层商业中心之间，留有绿化和开放空间的“缝隙”。这种模式远不如美国模式以汽车为中心，尽管汽车数量众多，但它们目前并非主要的交通工具。主要的交通工具是电动滑板车，成群结队地在街道上飞驰，公共交通和步行是其补充。
中国城市与许多西方城市的另一个区别是它们的秩序。这里没有无家可归的人或乞丐，尽管城市充满活力，但你看不到或发现反社会行为。公共场所一尘不染，部分原因是拥有一支名副其实的街道清洁工大军（其中大多数是老年人），也是因为乱扔垃圾的情况根本不存在。其中一个原因是低调但无处不在的警察：每个小社区都有专门的警察，警察的照片和联系电话都挂在墙上。警察的身影随处可见。然而，有证据表明，警察只是在支持强有力的公共行为社会规范，而这些规范强烈反对反社会行为。
秩序的阴暗面在于管控的程度。所有交通枢纽和大多数主要历史遗迹或公共建筑都设有安全检查。参观许多地方需要
需要带照片的身份证明，外国人需出示护照，本地人需出示身份证。但这有一个重要的限制条件：虽然安全检查和身份证系统是全国统一的，但众所周知的社会信用体系并非如此——它在各个省份或地区之间存在很大差异。这反映了中国政府的一个主要特点，即相对分散的权力。党并非统一而单一的。虽然有国家战略和政策，但每个省级甚至市级党组织都拥有很大的自主权，可以在很大程度上推行自己的战略。因此，中国各地的政策和战略细节存在很大差异。这并不是什么新鲜事——它反映了自公元前221年建国以来贯穿中国国家历史的治理体系。
周末假期，北京，身着清朝服饰的妇女们在天坛拍照留念。周末假期，北京，身着清朝服饰的妇女们在天坛拍照留念。——Andy Wong/AP
这反映了我最令人惊讶的观察之一：中国传统思维方式和生活方式的持续存在，甚至有所保留。尽管城市和基础设施令人印象深刻，但农村的繁荣与发展才是最引人注目的。在中国大部分地区，乡镇和村庄都拥有新建的现代化住房，这些住房通常由私人储蓄提供资金。除了主干道网络之外，还有密集的小型铺装道路和小径系统，将农村与国家电网连接起来。此外，这里还几乎完全实现了电气化和互联网覆盖。农业模式非常传统，与西方模式截然不同。乡村景观（以及城市周围和城市内部的大部分空地）是由非常小的田地组成的，更像是分配地。这里实行的是中国传统的集约化永续农业，即定期轮作和混合耕作。这种农业模式产量很高，但不依赖高能源投入。然而，它仍然高度劳动密集，但随着城市化进程的推进，这种情况正在改变。然而，城乡之间仍然保持着非常紧密的联系，许多迁入城市的人仍然与农村土地保持着联系，并承担着部分土地的责任，至今仍在耕种。农业高度集约——无论在哪里，都不会有一寸适合耕种的土地被闲置。
农业只是古老中国延续和复兴的众多方式之一。诸如阴阳两极之类的传统观念依然根深蒂固。在年轻人中，传统宗教信仰和教规明显复兴，尤其是佛教，也包括道教和儒教。佛教寺庙里挤满了年轻人，尤其是女性，她们并非以游客的身份前来，而是来祈福的。党对此习以为常，并在许多地区积极鼓励，重建佛寺，甚至儒家寺庙。（这令人惊讶，因为儒家思想是帝制中国的官方哲学。）
事实上，人们获得的印象是，国家的意识形态基础正在缓慢但稳步地转变，转向一种既源于儒家思想和法家思想历史传统，也源于现代思想的混合体。对毛泽东的崇拜，尽管在官方层面依然盛行，但正在逐渐消退，与其说是因为意识形态的否定，不如说是因为时间的流逝。毛泽东正在成为一位重要的历史人物，在很多方面与他的榜样——秦始皇——相似。现行体制仍然具有强大的合法性，但文化大革命令人惋惜。对于中年人来说，最受敬仰的人物是邓小平，他被誉为中国对外开放的功臣，并将经济体制从计划经济转变为市场经济。另一位受人尊敬的人物是孙中山，他是20世纪20年代共和国的缔造者。独特的是，他在海峡两岸都受到崇敬，国家的实际政策不仅源于他的“三民主义”，也源于社会主义（尤其是“民族主义”和“福利主义”）。
人们对中国历史有着广泛的兴趣，并对其中的大部分历史内容表示崇敬。有趣的是，年轻人，尤其是女性，会穿着历史服饰参观历史遗迹。这因地区而异——在北京，人们主要穿着清朝满族宫廷服饰，在西安则穿着唐代服饰，而在长三角城市，人们则穿着宋代服饰。历史并非不加批判地被接受，而是普遍受到人们的钦佩和尊重。广受推崇的历史人物包括秦始皇、明朝洪武和永乐皇帝，以及
武则天和唐太宗。一般来说，汉、唐、明三朝受人推崇，宋、清则逊色一些。共同点在于，受人尊敬的人物和朝代，往往被认为促进了中国的繁荣富强和对外开放；而受人贬低的人物和朝代，则与中国相对世界其他地区的弱势和文化衰落联系在一起。这一切都反映了另一种正在复兴的古老观念：国家成功的关键并非制度或政策，而是领导力的素质。
中国是一个充满活力和创新精神的社会，在个人和家庭层面也竞争激烈。它高度面向未来，但又与过去息息相关，过去以各种方式受到人们的崇敬。中国拥有一个威权但高效能的政府。这一切能持续多久尚待观察，但如今的中国正成为“国家能力”理念的宣传标杆。中国文化中强烈地崇尚教育和自我完善，这种崇尚往往非常物质化。这种现象在个人层面上体现为对身体健康的投入，公共健身课程是城市生活的主要特征。此外，强烈的职业道德也起着重要作用。
所有这些都面临着挑战。目前尚不清楚，在现代移动通信和社交媒体的冲击下，道德集体主义和职业道德还能维持多久。官方圈子对低于更替水平的出生率感到担忧，甚至近乎恐慌，但与其他地方一样，没有迹象表明国家的生育政策正在产生任何效果。人口老龄化是未来的巨大挑战，但当前最严峻的问题，与世界各地一样，是大城市的住房成本——上海的住房成本与北美或欧洲的主要大都市相当。这与持续不断的住房供应相吻合，表明造成这种情况的并非供应紧张，而是住房金融化和全球货币体系的紊乱。许多当地人评论的一件事是新冠疫情的持续影响——例如，它导致国内航空旅行减少了一半。
目前，所有证据表明，中国是一个充满活力的社会，国家和经济运转高效，并且对其历史和身份认同感到安心。中国坚定地致力于与世界其他国家接触并保持开放，并渴望看到中国恢复唐朝时期的世界领先地位。我们才刚刚开始看到这种模式对世界其他国家的影响。长期以来，中国视自己为世界的中心或中间王国，而世界其他国家则视其为最强大、最文明的国家——这种情况直到18世纪70年代之后才有所改变。我们几乎肯定会回归到这种状态。
Travelling through China, it is clear this will soon be the most powerful nation in the world
Stephen Davies 15 June 2025
Dr. Stephen Davies, Faculty of Humanities, History McMaster University
Stephen.Davies@viu.ca
In May I had the opportunity to spend a month travelling around China...
In May I had the opportunity to spend a month travelling around China. Many things caught my attention while I was there. In general, I came away with some strong and clear impressions, from what I observed, from interactions with people there and from things guides and others said.
The first is that the infrastructure that has been built in the last thirty years or less is simply amazing, not just impressive but jaw-dropping. Most spectacular is the network of high-speed railway lines built since roughly 2005. Currently there are 30,000 miles of such lines, all built in the last twenty years. The total railway network, which has also been massively expanded, stands at 96,000 miles including the HSR lines with the plan being to extend it to 170,000 miles by 2050. According to the best estimates by outside observers, the return on this investment is between six and eight per cent. Since the system has largely been built from scratch, it features enormous brand-new stations the size of airport terminals. The trains, which run at 200 mph, are comfortable and clean and the ride is so smooth that the speed is almost unnoticeable.
It is not only trains. There is also a series of airports all over China, most as big as major international ones in Europe. Again, these are brand new. Alongside the railways is a dense network of both long-distance motorways and modernised provincial and local roads. There are 114,000 miles of expressways with the rest of the national highway system amounting to 1.3 million miles (1.9 million kilometres). As with the rail system, this is being constantly extended. The big caveat is that building the infrastructure is one thing (not that Western countries are doing that) but the real challenge is maintaining it.
The other aspect of infrastructure that anyone visiting China notices is the urban development. China has seen a dramatic process of urban development in the last two decades, with new cities springing up everywhere and older ones adding millions of new housing units. This takes a distinctive form, which is high-rise and high-density. Chinese cities and towns have grown upwards as much as outwards. Cities feature forests of high-rise towers, typically of thirty to forty floors. The initial impression is of uniformity but on closer examination that changes. Most of the towers are not simple boxes but have decorative features as part of the design and what seems a single mass resolves into grouped clusters of towers with similar styles. At ground level it becomes clear that each cluster is fenced off and forms a single gated neighbourhood, with retail and other facilities on the lower floors of the towers. The new cities thus have a high-density modular structure.
The other feature of Chinese urban development is how green the cities are. There are trees and green spaces everywhere with most of the trees clearly planted in the last thirty years. The expressways and major roads have ivy growing up the sides of supporting pillars and boxes of flowers and plants along their lengths, all maintained. The pattern is what is known as a “sponge city” with threads and “holes” of greenery and open space between the high-rise neighbourhoods and the older low-rise ones and the very high-rise commercial centres. This pattern is far less car-centric than its American equivalent and although there are many cars, they are not at present the primary means of transportation. That is the electric scooter with swarms of them zooming around all of the streets, supplemented by both public transport and walking.
Another difference between Chinese cities and many Western ones is their orderliness. There are no homeless people or beggars and although the cities are lively and dynamic you do not see or find anti-social behaviour. Public spaces are spotlessly clean, partly because of a veritable army of street cleaners (most of them older people) but also because littering simply does not happen. One reason for this is a low-key but pervasive police presence: each small neighbourhood has its own attached police officer with photographs of them displayed along with that officer’s mobile number for contacting them. Police are highly visible. However, the evidence suggests that the police are simply backing up strong social norms of public behaviour, which strongly disapprove of anti-social conduct.
The darker side of the orderliness is the degree of control. There are security checks at all transport terminals and most major historical sites or public buildings. Visiting many places requires photo identification, passports for foreigners, ID cards for locals. There is an important qualification to this though: while the security checks and ID system are uniform and national, the well-known social credit system is not – it varies considerably from one province or locality to another. This reflects a major feature of the Chinese state which is its relative decentralisation. The Party is not uniform and monolithic. Although there are national strategies and policies, each provincial or even city level Party has a great deal of autonomy and can pursue its own strategy to a great extent. As a result there is considerable variation in details of policy and strategy from one part of China to another. This is not novel – it reflects a system of governance found throughout the history of the Chinese state all the way back to its formation in 221 BC.
This reflects one of the most surprising observations I made, the persistence and even reassertion of older Chinese ways of thinking and living. Although the cities and infrastructure are impressive, the striking feature is the prosperity and success of the countryside. Across most of China, rural towns and villages have new, modern housing, often funded by private savings. Alongside the network of major roads is a dense system of smaller paved roads and paths that connect the countryside to the national system. This is coupled with both near-complete electrification and internet provision. The pattern of agriculture is very traditional and strikingly different from the Western model. The rural landscape (and much of the open space around and within cities) is one of very small fields, more like allotments. What is practised is traditional Chinese intensive permaculture with regular rotation of crops and mixed farming, a pattern of agriculture that is very efficient in terms of yields but which does not rely on high energy inputs. It is however still very labour intensive but this is changing with urbanisation. However, there are still very strong connections between countryside and city, with many who have moved to the city retaining a connection with and responsibility contract for portions of rural land, which they still farm. The farming is very intensive – not a square inch of land suitable for farming is left idle no matter where it is.
Agriculture is only one of many ways in which old China persists and re-emerges. Traditional ideas, such as the polarity of Yin and Yang are as strong as ever. Among the young there is a clear revival of traditional religious belief and observance, notably of Buddhism, but also of Taoism and Confucianism. Buddhist temples are crowded with young people, particularly women, who come not as tourists but to pray. The Party is comfortable with this and in many regions actively encourages it, rebuilding Buddhist temples and even Confucian ones. (That is surprising because of Confucianism being the official philosophy of imperial China.)
In fact, the impression gained is that the ideological basis of the state is slowly but steadily shifting, to a hybrid one that owes as much to the historic traditions of Confucianism and Legalism as modern thought. The cult of Mao, while officially as strong as ever, is slowly fading not so much because of ideological repudiation as the simple passage of time. Mao is becoming simply another major historical figure, similar in many ways to his own role model, the First Emperor Ch’in Shi Huang Ti. The current system still has strong legitimacy but the Cultural Revolution is regretted. For middle aged people the figure who is admired is Deng Xiaoping, credited with the opening of China to the rest of the world and the transformation of the economic system from a command economy to a dirigiste market one. Another revered figure is Sun Yat Sen, the founder of the Republic in the 1920s. Uniquely, he is venerated on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and the actual policy of the state owes as much to his “Three Principles” as socialism (particularly “Nationalism” or Minzu and Welfarism or Minsheng).
This is a very dynamic and innovative society that is also intensely competitive at an individual and familial level. It is highly futuristic and forward looking but also connected to its past, which is venerated in various ways. It has an authoritarian but effective and competent government. How long all this will survive is another matter but right now China is an advert for the idea of “state capacity”. There is a strong cultural commitment to ideals of education and self-improvement, often very materialistic. One form this takes at a personal level is commitment to physical fitness and health, with public exercise classes being a major feature of urban life. This is coupled with a powerful work ethic.
All of this faces challenges. It is not clear how long the ethical collectivism and work ethic will survive the impact of modern cellular communications and social media. There is concern, getting close to panic in official circles, about the below replacement birth-rate but, as elsewhere, there is no sign that the pro-natalist policies of the state are having any effect. The ageing population poses a massive challenge going forward but the current acute problem, as everywhere in the world, is housing costs in major cities – Shanghai has costs comparable to major metros in North America or Europe. That this coincides with massive and continuing supply suggests that it is not supply constraints that cause this but the financialisation of housing and the derangement of the global monetary system. One thing that many locals commented on was the continuing impact of the Covid pandemic – it has halved domestic air travel for example.
For now, China is, on all of the evidence, a dynamic society with a functioning and effective state and economy that is comfortable with its past and its identity. There is a strong commitment to engagement with and openness to the rest of the world and a desire to see China recover the kind of position it had under the Tang, as the leading world civilisation. We are only starting to see the impact this model will have on the rest of the world. For a long time, China saw itself as the central or middle kingdom of the world and the rest of the world regarded it as the most powerful and most civilised state – this only changed after the 1770s. We are almost certainly going to revert to that.
