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萨默斯称 习近平把特朗普打趴下了

(2025-08-08 06:21:17) 下一个

萨默斯称中国国家主席习近平赢得与特朗普的贸易战

 

彭博社 2025年8月7日
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/summers-says-chinas-xi-wins-185656161.html

前财政部长劳伦斯·萨默斯表示,他对其他国家声称将在美国投资持怀疑态度。他表示,唐纳德·特朗普总统正在疏远世界其他国家。“在我们推行的战略中,确实有一个赢家。他的名字是习近平,”萨默斯指的是中国国家主席习近平。萨默斯在彭博电视台与大卫·威斯汀主持的《华尔街周刊》节目中发表了讲话。

拉里·萨默斯称特朗普的政策“可怕地”像阿根廷的庇隆

前财政部长劳伦斯·萨默斯警告称,唐纳德·特朗普总统

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/larry-summers-says-trump-policies-are-scarily-like-argentinas-peron

特朗普的政策有可能使美国走上与战后阿根廷类似的道路,后者从一个相对先进的发达国家沦为经济落后者。

克里斯托弗·安斯蒂 彭博新闻 2025年8月7日
2023年7月13日星期四,哈佛大学名誉校长兼教授拉里·萨默斯在美国爱达荷州太阳谷举行的艾伦公司媒体与技术大会上接受彭博电视采访。该峰会通常是促成并购而非握手的热门话题,但今年在交易量低迷、通货膨胀和利率上升的背景下,其基调可能会大不相同。
2023年7月13日星期四,哈佛大学名誉校长兼教授拉里·萨默斯在美国爱达荷州太阳谷举行的艾伦公司媒体与技术大会上接受彭博电视采访。该峰会通常是促成并购而非握手的热门话题,但今年在交易量低迷、通货膨胀和利率上升的背景下,其基调可能会大不相同。摄影:大卫·保罗·莫里斯/彭博社

(彭博社)——美国前财政部长劳伦斯·萨默斯警告称,唐纳德·特朗普总统的政策可能会使美国走上与战后阿根廷类似的道路,后者从一个相对先进的发达国家沦为经济落后国家。

萨默斯在彭博电视台大卫·韦斯汀主持的《华尔街周刊》节目中表示:“阿根廷完全偏离了正轨,是因为一位通过民主选举产生的领导人在几年内做出的决定,他追求独裁而不是推崇民主。这应该成为商界和政治进程中每个人的警示。”

已故的胡安·庇隆于1946年创立了民粹主义运动,当时一些观察家认为阿根廷与加拿大、澳大利亚和新西兰等国一样,是一个拥有丰富自然资源的成熟经济体。庇隆主义倡导进口替代和高关税,以刺激阿根廷的国内产业发展。根据智库OMFIF发布的2023年评估报告,贸易保护主义是导致阿根廷经济衰落的“关键政策”。

“随着时间的推移,民族主义情绪蔓延,经济成功越来越取决于谁与政府友好,而越来越不取决于谁真正擅长生产产品并与外国人竞争——阿根廷的经济表现变得灾难性,”哈佛大学教授、彭博电视台付费撰稿人萨默斯说道。“如果你仔细想想,就会觉得这种模式与我们目前正在做的事情惊人地相似。”

萨默斯强调,美国确实拥有“高度韧性的机构”和优势,而这些是庇隆执政时期阿根廷所不具备的。但他将阿根廷的威权主义历史与这个南美国家的威权主义历史进行了类比,包括保护主义、“围绕领导人的个人崇拜”以及对媒体、大学和律师事务所等公民社会部分成员的攻击。

萨默斯表示,战后阿根廷以及一战后一些欧洲国家的专制经历“是非常值得警示的教训,我认为美国人需要更加关注,坦率地说,也需要更广泛地讨论”。

特朗普及其内阁首脑们认为,他威胁征收的高额关税赋予了华盛顿与贸易伙伴之间的筹码,与一些国家达成的协议将为美国扩大出口提供重大机遇。他们还对许多其他国家和公司承诺的总额达数万亿美元的重大投资项目表示欢迎。

中国是赢家

萨默斯对其中一些承诺表示怀疑。
文章内容
“你不知道它们的含义,因为你不知道基准线应该是多少,”他说。

这位前财政部长还警告说,“将会有大量投资流出——因为当我们提高所有投入品的价格时,我们正在使自己成为一个更加麻烦的生产中心。”

特朗普已经实施或计划实施

针对钢铁、铝、半导体和铜等多种用于制造制成品的产品,进行了反复的抨击。

“我怀疑,其中一些后果很可能是制造业在数量上规模缩小,质量上也更差,”他说道。

更广泛地说,萨默斯表示,保护主义和民族主义政策“正在疏远世界其他国家”。“更高的投入成本、给投资者带来更大的不确定性以及疏远客户,这不可能是正确的策略,”他说道。

“这里有一个赢家——在我们推行的战略中,确实有一个赢家。他的名字是习近平,”萨默斯在谈到中国国家主席时说道。

Summers Says China's Xi Wins Trade War With Trump

Bloomberg  
 
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers says he's skeptical of other countries that say they are going to invest in the US. He says President Donald Trump is alienating the rest of the world. "There's a winner here there really is a winner here in the strategy that we are pursuing. His name is Xi Jinping," Summers said, referring to China's president. Summers speaks on Bloomberg Television's Wall Street Week with David Westin.
 
Larry Summers Says Trump Policies Are 'Scarily' Like Argentina's Peron
 
Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned that President Donald
 
 
Trump’s policies risk putting the US on a similar path to that of postwar Argentina, which descended from being a relatively advanced developed nation into an economic laggard.
 
Christopher Anstey Bloomberg News  Aug 07, 2025
Larry Summers, president emeritus and professor at Harvard University, during a Bloomberg Television interview at the Allen & Co. Media and Technology Conference in Sun Valley, Idaho, US, on Thursday, July 13, 2023. The summit is typically a hotbed for etching out mergers over handshakes, but could take on a much different tone this year against the backdrop of lackluster deal volume, inflation and higher interest rates.
Larry Summers, president emeritus and professor at Harvard University, during a Bloomberg Television interview at the Allen & Co. Media and Technology Conference in Sun Valley, Idaho, US, on Thursday, July 13, 2023. The summit is typically a hotbed for etching out mergers over handshakes, but could take on a much different tone this year against the backdrop of lackluster deal volume, inflation and higher interest rates. PHOTO BY DAVID PAUL MORRIS /Bloomberg
 
(Bloomberg) — Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned that President Donald Trump’s policies risk putting the US on a similar path to that of postwar Argentina, which descended from being a relatively advanced developed nation into an economic laggard.
 
“Argentina went completely off track because of decisions made in a few years by an elected — through a democracy — leader who pursued autocracy rather than venerating democracy,” Summers said on Bloomberg Television’s Wall Street Week with David Westin. “And that should be a cautionary tale for everyone in the business community and everyone involved in our political process.”
 
The late Juan Perón founded a populist movement in 1946 at a time when Argentina was grouped by some observers with the likes of Canada, Australia and New Zealand as a sophisticated economy with abundant natural resources. Peronism championed import substitution and high tariffs in an effort to stoke Argentina’s domestic industry. Trade protectionism was “the key policy” leading to its economic downfall, according to a 2023 assessment published by the think tank OMFIF.
 
“Over time, as the nationalism took hold, as economic success became more and more about who is friends with the government — and less and less about who was really good at producing products and competing with foreigners — Argentina’s economic performance became calamitous,” said Summers, a Harvard University professor and paid contributor to Bloomberg TV. “It’s a model that, if you think about it, is scarily reminiscent of what we are doing right now.”
 
Summers highlighted that the US does have “highly resilient institutions” and strengths such that Argentina didn’t have when Peron came to office. But he drew parallels with the South American nation’s authoritarian past including protectionism, “a cult of personality around the leader” and attacks on parts of civil society such as media outlets, universities and law firms. 
 
The autocratic experiences of postwar Argentina, along with a number of European nations after World War I “are very cautionary lessons that I think Americans need to pay more attention to and frankly, need to be more widely discussed,” Summers said.
 
Trump and his cabinet chiefs have argued that the steep tariffs he’s threatened have given Washington leverage with trading partners, and that deals with some nations will provide a major opportunity for the US to expand its exports. They have also hailed pledges for major investment projects from a slew of other countries and companies, totaling trillions of dollars.
 
China as Winner
 
Summers expressed skepticism about some of those promises.
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“You don’t know what they mean, because you don’t know what the baseline would have been,” he said. 

The former Treasury secretary also cautioned that there’s going to be “a lot of investment that goes out — because we’re making ourselves such a more problematic hub for production when we’re raising the price of all the inputs.”
 
Trump has imposed or planned tariffs on a number of products used in making manufactured goods, such as steel, aluminum, semiconductors and copper.
 
“I suspect the consequence of some of this may well be a manufacturing sector that is both quantitatively smaller and qualitatively inferior,” he said.
 
More broadly, Summers said “we are alienating the rest of the world” with protectionist and nationalist policies. “Higher priced inputs, much more uncertainty for investors and alienating of customers can’t be the right strategy,” he said.
 
“There’s a winner here — there really is a winner here in the strategy that we are pursuing. His name is Xi Jinping,” Summers said, referring to China’s president.
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