Stephen Harper 此时此刻 颠覆时代的政治与领导力

就在此时此刻：颠覆时代的政治与领导力

斯蒂芬·J·哈珀 2018年10月9日 页数：240
https://www.indigo.ca/en-ca/right-here-right-now-politics-and-leadership-in-the-age-of-disruption/9780771038624.html

在这本适时而富有洞察力的新书中，加拿大第22任总理斯蒂芬·J·哈珀借鉴其十年担任七国集团领导人的经验，帮助商界和政界的领导者理解、适应并在这个前所未有的颠覆时代蓬勃发展。

世界瞬息万变。颠覆性的技术、理念和政客正在挑战世界各地的商业模式、规范和政治惯例。作为商界和政界的领导者，我们如何应对至关重要。一些人拒绝承认任何变革的必要性，而另一些人则主张彻底的调整。但这两种立场都无法持续解决心怀不满的公民的合理关切。

《此时此刻》通过分析经济、社会和公共政策趋势（包括资本、商品和服务以及劳动力的全球化流动）如何影响我们的经济、社区和政府，为商界和政界领袖提出了务实且具有前瞻性的愿景。

哈珀认为，唐纳德·特朗普出人意料的选举和执政议程清楚地表明，政治、经济和社会机构必须更加积极地回应公众对公共政策、市场监管、移民和技术的合理担忧。

哈珀敦促读者不要只关注风格和庄重，而是深入探讨了唐纳德·特朗普能够接替巴拉克·奥巴马成为美国总统的实质性基础，以及这些力量在其他西方民主国家是如何体现的。

通过分析国际贸易、市场监管、移民、技术以及政府在数字经济中的作用，哈珀阐述了务实领导力作为解决当今企业和政府面临的不确定性和风险的有效解决方案的案例。

独家：斯蒂芬·哈珀在新书中称，在这个动荡的时代，民粹主义是未来

摘录：在《就在此时此刻：动荡时代的政治与领导力》一书中，这位前总理认为，“可悲之人”有一些重要的事情要告诉我们

斯蒂芬·哈珀，《国家邮报》特约撰稿人，2018年10月5日

民粹主义的兴起——无论是在北美大陆还是其他地区——都招致了来自各个政界的谴责。但正如前总理斯蒂芬·J·哈珀在其新书《就在此时此刻：动荡时代的政治与领导力》的独家摘录中所言，那些投票罢免建制派人物的所谓“可悲之人”的声音值得认真倾听。他们的担忧指向了全球化的深层问题——而且这些问题不会消失。

如果你对政治感兴趣，你会记得2016年11月8日你在哪里。当时我正在地下室的客厅里观看美国总统选举。我的（临时）继任者、加拿大保守党领袖罗娜·安布罗斯阁下和我在一起。阿尔伯塔联合保守党领袖杰森·肯尼阁下也在场。那天晚上，我没想到唐纳德·J·特朗普会当选总统。

但与大多数观察家不同，我确实认为这至少是可能的。我花了很长时间才意识到这一点。但特朗普赢得了共和党提名，现在他正在赢得总统大选。于是，我问自己：发生了什么？我可能得出了大多数评论员得出的结论。他们预测特朗普赢不了——他永远赢不了——因为他是个傻瓜，是个偏执狂。因此，他们推测，选民也一定是傻瓜，是个偏执狂。那些抱有愚蠢和先入为主观念的人，才是真正犯下大错的人。现在是时候重新审视我们的假设了。

简而言之，这就是我的重新审视。很大一部分美国人，包括许多美国保守派，投票支持特朗普，是因为他们自己的日子过得并不好。简而言之，全球化的世界对我们许多人来说并不好。我们可以假装这是一种错误的认知，但事实并非如此。我们现在有一个选择。我们可以继续试图让人们相信他们误解了自己的生活，或者我们可以试着理解他们在说什么。然后我们才能决定该怎么做。

2018年10月2日，特朗普的支持者在密西西比州南黑文的集会上祈祷。有些人认为特朗普“让美国再次伟大”的号召纯粹是沙文主义，但哈珀写道，轻视他反全球化言论的本能反应，就忽略了其更深层次的意义。 （美联社/Evan Vucci）
2018年10月2日，特朗普的支持者在密西西比州南黑文的集会上祈祷。一些人将特朗普“让美国再次伟大”的号召斥为纯粹的沙文主义，但哈珀写道，轻视特朗普反全球化言论的本能反应，就忽略了其更深层次的意义。（美联社/Evan Vucci）
文章内容
保守派赢得了冷战。罗纳德·里根、玛格丽特·撒切尔和他们那一代人反对国外的共产主义，反对国内的社会主义。他们在很大程度上取得了成功。我们的价值观——自由社会、自由市场、自由贸易、自由流动——已传播到世界各地。问题在于：全球化对世界上许多人来说非常成功，但对我们自己来说却并非如此。全球十亿人——主要来自亚洲新兴经济体——已经摆脱了贫困。然而，在许多西方国家，劳动人民的收入在过去的四分之一世纪里停滞不前，甚至有所下降。在美国尤其如此。特朗普显然深谙此道。

一些人将特朗普总统“让美国再次伟大”的号召斥为纯粹的沙文主义，但轻视他反全球主义言论的本能反应，就忽略了其更深层次的意义。这番言论引起了民主党核心成员的共鸣，他们曾支持罗纳德·里根和乔治·W·布什，以及他们坚定的国际主义立场。他的言论也引起了相当一部分传统民主党选民的共鸣，其中许多人转而支持他，让他当选总统。

在我看来，这或许是特朗普现象中最容易理解的部分。美国经历了十五年的外交政策，为“美国优先”的方针奠定了基础。

首先是阿富汗和伊拉克战争。坦白说：我支持这两项倡议，现在仍然支持关于阿富汗的决定。然而，“国家建设”付出了巨大的人力和财力代价，却收效甚微。在此过程中，在海外推广美国理念的想法遭受了沉重打击。随后，新政府决心避免过度扩张。然而，全球安全形势却进一步恶化。因此，近期的记录与现任美国政府的取向几乎如出一辙。然而，这只是故事的一部分，无法完全解释人们本能的反应。

对特朗普政府的“美国优先”倾向来说，这既有积极的一面，也有消极的一面。

就在此时此地：颠覆时代的政治与领导力

https://quillandquire.com/review/right-here-right-now-politics-and-leadership-in-the-age-of-disruption/

作者：斯蒂芬·J·哈珀

“我不希望这本书过多地关注唐纳德·特朗普，”前总理斯蒂芬·哈珀在他关于21世纪保守主义以及他所期望的公共政策未来的新书开篇写道。但2016年美国大选引发的强烈余震或多或少确保了任何试图为当前形势制定政策方案的人都必须与宾夕法尼亚大道1600号的现任总统抗衡。哈珀也不例外。尽管有人反对，但唐纳德·特朗普在“就在此时此地”已经无处不在。

在哈珀看来，特朗普“并非真正的保守派，甚至算不上共和党人”。他之所以赢得总统大选，是因为他能够利用庞大的（且大多未被意识到的）工薪阶层和中产阶级选民群体中民粹主义的不满情绪，而这些选民被全球化的飞速发展抛在身后。哈珀认为，推动特朗普上台的民粹主义力量高涨，为保守派提供了机会，只要他们愿意抓住这个机会。

作为一名公开反对凯恩斯主义的经济学家，哈珀摒弃了维持现状的保守主义，即提倡降低富人的税收并大量接收非技术移民，这主要是因为他认为推行这种政策组合会将政治权力拱手让给左翼。他也反对盲目地奉行民粹主义，部分原因是这会导致产生一些无法当选的候选人。 （哈珀以失败的阿拉巴马州参议员候选人罗伊·摩尔为例；在哈珀看来，摩尔最大的罪过并非针对他的那些可信的性行为不端和性侵犯指控，而是他对共和党造成的“品牌损害”。）

哈珀倡导的正是他所谓的“民粹保守主义”。他将其定义为“并非植根于抽象的‘基本原则’，而是根植于应用于劳动人民需求的现实世界经验”。这听起来很有道理，但人们会意识到这个定义实际上是多么模糊和不精确。

事实证明，这正是哈珀这本书的一个关键败笔：作者一次又一次地陷入泛泛而谈，而具体的例子才是更好的选择。“保守派真正有机会捍卫广大劳动人民，尤其是有偿工作，”哈珀写道。 “然而，这要求我们在监管、税收、教育和环境保护等政策领域，在自由市场教条主义和纯粹的政治权宜之计之间找到一个平衡点。” 这个平衡点究竟如何，谁也说不准。

列举哈珀未能为紧迫问题提供解决方案的具体领域并不难。气候变化——当今人类面临的真正生存危机——只被寥寥几页的篇幅所提及，并且被企业在经济增长方面的迫切需求所取代。哈珀沾沾自喜地向加拿大原住民就寄宿学校制度的恐怖行径道歉，却拒绝承认他的保守党政府未能为保护区提供清洁饮用水，也未能解决原住民普遍存在的过度监禁和自杀问题。等等。

这在很大程度上是意料之中的。更令人惊讶的是，哈珀总体上不愿清晰地描绘出他的保守主义愿景在实践中将如何发挥作用。他首先提出要回答唐纳德·特朗普最喜欢问的一个问题：“到底发生了什么？”读完哈珀的书后，读者仍然没有找到答案。

Right Here, Right Now: Politics And Leadership In The Age Of Disruption

Stephen J. Harper Oct 09, 2018 Pages 240
https://www.indigo.ca/en-ca/right-here-right-now-politics-and-leadership-in-the-age-of-disruption/9780771038624.html

In this timely and insightful new book, Stephen J. Harper, Canada's 22nd Prime Minister, draws on a decade of experience as a G-7 leader to help leaders in business and government understand, adapt, and thrive in an age of unprecedented disruption.

The world is in flux. Disruptive technologies, ideas, and politicians are challenging business models, norms, and political conventions everywhere. How we, as leaders in business and politics, choose to respond matters greatly. Some voices refuse to concede the need for any change, while others advocate for radical realignment. But neither of these positions can sustainably address the legitimate concerns of disaffected citizens.

Right Here, Right Now sets out a pragmatic, forward-looking vision for leaders in business and politics by analyzing how economic, social, and public policy trends--including globalized movements of capital, goods and services, and labour--have affected our economies, communities, and governments.

Harper contends that Donald Trump's surprise election and governing agenda clearly signal that political, economic, and social institutions must be more responsive to legitimate concerns about public policy, market regulation, immigration, and technology.       

Urging readers to look past questions of style and gravitas, Harper thoughtfully examines the substantive underpinnings of how and why Donald Trump was able to succeed Barack Obama as President of the United States, and how these forces are manifesting themselves in other western democracies.  

Analyzing international trade, market regulation, immigration, technology, and the role of government in the digital economy, Harper lays out the case for pragmatic leadership as a proven solution to the uncertainty and risk that businesses and governments face today.

Exclusive: The future is populist in this age of disruption, Stephen Harper says in new book

Excerpt: In Right Here, Right Now: Politics and Leadership in the Age of Disruption, the former PM argues the ‘deplorables’ have something important to tell us

By Stephen Harper, Special to National Post Oct 05, 2018

 

The rise of populism — on this continent and beyond — has drawn condemnation from across the political spectrum. But as former prime minister Stephen J. Harper argues in this exclusive excerpt from his new book, Right Here, Right Now: Politics and Leadership in the Age of Disruption, the so-called “deplorables” who have voted establishment figures out of office deserve a careful hearing. Their concerns point to deep problems with globalization — and they aren’t going away. 

 

If you are interested in politics, you will remember where you were on November 8, 2016. I was watching the U.S. presidential vote in my basement living room. My (interim) successor as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, the Hon. Rona Ambrose, was with me. So was the leader of the United Conservative Party of Alberta, the Hon. Jason Kenney. I did not expect Donald J. Trump to be elected president that evening.

 

But unlike most observers, I did think it was at least possible. It had taken me a long time to even get there. But Trump won the Republican nomination, and now he was win­ning the presidential election. So, I asked myself: What happened? I could have concluded what most commentators concluded. They had predicted Trump could not win — that he could never win — because he is a fool and a bigot. Therefore, they surmised, the voters must be fools and bigots as well. The ones with the foolish and preconceived notions were those who got it so wrong. It is time to re-examine our assumptions.

 

So here is my re-examination in a nutshell. A large proportion of Americans, including many American conservatives, voted for Trump because they are really not doing very well. In short, the world of globalization is not working for many of our own people. We can pretend that this is a false perception, but it is not. We now have a choice. We can keep trying to convince people that they misunderstand their own lives, or we can try to understand what they are saying. Then we can decide what to do about it.

 

Trump supporters pray at a rally in Southhaven, Miss., on Oct. 2, 2018. Some dismiss Trumpâ??s clarion call to Make America Great Again as sheer jingoism, but to minimize the visceral embrace of his anti-globalist message is to miss its larger significance, Harper writes. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

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Conservatives won the Cold War. Ronald Reagan, Margaret Thatcher, and their generation stood against communism abroad and socialism at home. And they were largely successful. Our values — free societies, free markets, free trade, free movement — have spread around the world. The problem is this: globalization has been very successful for many of the world’s people, but not so much for many of our own. A billion people worldwide — mostly in the emerging economies of Asia — have moved out of poverty. Yet, in many Western countries, the incomes of working people have stagnated or even declined over the past quarter-century. This is especially true in the United States. Trump clearly understood this.

Some dismiss President Trump’s clarion call to “Make America Great Again” as sheer jingoism, but to minimize the visceral embrace of his anti-globalist message is to miss its larger significance. It resonated with the core of the party that supported Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush and their robust internationalism. His message also had resonance with a considerable body of traditionally Democratic voters, many of whom crossed over to give him the presidency.

 

 

To my mind, this is perhaps the most easily understood part of the Trump phenomenon. America has been through a decade and a half of foreign-policy experiences that laid the groundwork for an America First approach.

 

To start with, there were the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Full disclosure: I supported both initiatives and still support the decision on Afghanistan. Nonetheless, enormous human and financial costs have been incurred through “nation-building,” with very limited success. In the process, the idea of promoting America’s ideals abroad was dealt a terrible blow. Then came a new administration determined to avoid over-extension. However, global security deteriorated further. Thus, the record of the recent past draws a pretty straight line to the orientation of the current U.S. administration. Still, it is only part of the story. It cannot fully explain the gut-level responses, both positive and negative, to the America First bent of the Trump administration.

 

Right Here, Right Now: Politics and Leadership in the Age of Disruption

 

https://quillandquire.com/review/right-here-right-now-politics-and-leadership-in-the-age-of-disruption/

by Stephen J. Harper

“I do not want this book to focus too much on Donald Trump,” writes former prime minister Stephen Harper at the outset of his new volume on conservatism in the 21st century and the future of public policy as he would like to see it unfold. But the seismic aftershocks emanating from the 2016 U.S. election more or less ensure that anyone attempting to craft policy prescriptions for the current moment must contend with the present occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. And Harper is no exception. Protestations to the contrary notwithstanding, Donald Trump is all over Right Here, Right Now.

Trump, who in Harper’s own estimation is “not really a conservative and not even a Republican,” won the presidency because he was able to tap into a populist vein of discontent among a large (and largely unacknowledged) group of working-class and middle-class voters left behind by the galloping speed of globalization. The surging populist forces that brought Trump to power provide an opportunity for conservatives, Harper suggests, if only they are willing to take it.

As an avowed anti-Keynesian economist, Harper discards status-quo conservatism promoting lower taxes for the very rich and high levels of unskilled immigration, largely because he believes that pursuing this policy mix would cede political power to the left. He also dismisses an adherence to unbridled populism, in part because it would produce candidates who are unelectable. (Harper uses as an example failed Alabama Senatorial candidate Roy Moore; in Harper’s conception, Moore’s greatest sin was not the credible allegations of sexual misconduct and assault levied against him but the “brand damage” he inflicted on the Republican party.)

What Harper advocates instead is what he calls “populist conservatism.” He defines this as being “rooted not in abstract ‘first principles’ but in real-world experience applied to the needs of working people.” Which sounds perfectly worthwhile until one realizes how vague and imprecise this definition really is.

This proves to be one of the key failings of Harper’s book: time and again the author retreats into generalities where specific examples would be preferable. “Conservatives have a real opportunity to champion working people in general and paid work in particular,” Harper writes. “However, it will require that, in policy areas like regulation, taxation, education, and environmental protection, we find a space somewhere between free-market dogmatism and pure political expediency.” What that space might look like is anybody’s guess.

It would be easy to enumerate specific areas in which Harper neglects to provide solutions to pressing problems. Climate change – the one truly existential crisis facing humanity today – is afforded a scant few pages and takes a back seat to the exigencies of business in growing the economy. Harper congratulates himself on apologizing to Indigenous people in Canada for the horrors of the residential school system but declines to acknowledge that his Conservative government failed to provide reserves with clean drinking water or address the rampant problems of over-incarceration and suicide among Indigenous people. And so on.

This is largely to be expected. What is more surprising is Harper’s general unwillingness to sketch a clear picture of how his conservative vision might work in practice. He begins by suggesting he will address one of his favourite questions from Donald Trump: “What the hell is going on?” By the end of Harper’s book, a reader is no closer to an answer.