16 Nobel Prize-winning economists letter warns Trump policies

We the undersigned

16 位诺贝尔经济学奖得主遇见特朗普通货膨胀炸弹

信息由 2001 年诺贝尔经济学奖得主约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨率先发出

1... George A. Akerlof (2001) 

University of California, Berkeley
Department of Economics
Tel No. [phone] Fax No. [phone]
[e-mail]

2... Sir Angus Deaton (2015) 

School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
[e-mail], [e-mail]

3... Claudia Goldin (2023)

Henry Lee Professor of Economics, Harvard University
[e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail]

4... Sir Oliver Hart (2016) 

Lewis P. and Linda L. Geyser University Professor, Harvard University,
[e-mail]
Tel: [phone] Fax: [phone]
[e-mail]

5... Eric S. Maskin (2007) 

Adams University Professor, Harvard University,
 [e-mail]
Tel: [phone],     Fax: [phone]
[e-mail]

6... Daniel L. McFadden (2000) 

E. Morris Cox Professor Emeritus of Economics
Presidential Professor of Health Economics at USC
University of California, Berkeley
Department of Economics
Tel No. [phone]
Fax No. [phone]
[e-mail]

7... Paul R. Milgrom (2020) 
Professor, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research

8... Roger B. Myerson (2007) 

Roger Myerson, Professor of Global Conflict Studies, University of Chicago
[e-mail]

9... Edmund S. Phelps (2006) 

Edmund S. Phelps, professor International Affairs, Center on Capitalism and Society at Columbia University
Phone: [phone]
Fax: [phone]
Email: [e-mail]

10... Paul M. Romer (2018) 

Professor Center for the Economics of Ideas,  Boston College
Tele: 617-552-3985
[e-mail] 

11... Alvin E. Roth (2012) 

Alvin E. Rothm Professor of Economics, Stanford University
Phone: [phone]
Email: [e-mail]

12... William F. Sharpe (1990) 

William F. Sharpe,  Professor of Finance, Stanford University

13... Robert J. Shiller (2013) 

Robert J. Shiller,  Sterling Professor of Economics,  Yale University
[e-mail]
Tele: [phone]
Fax:  [phone]

14... Christopher A. Sims (2011) 

Department of Economics, Princeton University

Tele: 609 258 4033 [e-mail], [e-mail]              

15... Joseph E. Stiglitz (2001) 

Joseph E. Stiglitz, University Professor
[e-mail]
212-854-0671, Fax: [phone]

16... Robert B. Wilson (2020)

Robert Wilson, Professor of Management, Stanford University
[phone]
[phone]
[e-mail]

16 位诺贝尔经济学奖得主遇见特朗普通货膨胀炸弹

https://www.axios.com/2024/06/25/nobel-prize-winners-biden-economy-trump-inflation

Scoop: 16 Nobel economists see a Trump inflation bomb

Hans Nichols   Jun 25, 2024 - Politics & Policy

16 位诺贝尔经济学奖得主加入总统竞选，并发出严厉警告：如果前总统特朗普在 11 月获胜，他的计划将重新引发通货膨胀并对全球经济造成持久损害。
重要性：诺贝尔奖得主利用他们的学术声望支持拜登政府数周来一直在提出的政治论点：特朗普执政期间，通货膨胀会更严重。

• “虽然我们每个人对各种经济政策的细节都有不同的看法，但我们都同意，乔·拜登的经济议程远远优于唐纳德·特朗普，”这 16 位经济学家在一封信中写道，这封信最先由 Axios 获得。
放大：自 2022 年夏季物价飙升以来，民主党一直在为经济问题辩护。

• 但他们的各种解释——包括短暂使用“拜登经济学”一词和大规模媒体购买——似乎都没有奏效。

• 选民们并不认同白宫所说的经济状况很好。

• 现在拜登的团队想要发起攻势，引起人们对特朗普实际提议的关注——包括他计划对所有进口产品征收 10% 的新关税，以及对中国商品征收最低 60% 的关税。
新闻热点：经济学家的说法是拜登竞选团队更广泛尝试的一部分，旨在将 2024 年大选变成两位候选人未来计划之间的选择——而不一定是对拜登履历的全民公投。

• “我们认为，特朗普的第二个任期将对美国在世界上的经济地位产生负面影响，并对美国国内经济产生不稳定影响，”经济学家在信中写道。

• “许多美国人担心通货膨胀，通货膨胀已经下降得非常快。人们有理由担心唐纳德·特朗普会以他财政上不负责任的预算重新引发这种通货膨胀，”他们写道。

这一信息由 2001 年诺贝尔经济学奖得主约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨率先发出。

• 与他一起发出信息的还有乔治·阿克洛夫 (2001)、安格斯·迪顿爵士 (2015)、克劳迪娅·戈尔丁 (2023)、奥利弗·哈特爵士 (2016)、埃里克·S·马斯金 (2007)、丹尼尔·L·麦克法登 (2000)、保罗·R·米尔格罗姆 (2020)、罗杰·B·迈尔森 (2007)、埃德蒙·S·菲尔普斯 (2006)、保罗·M·罗默 (2018)、阿尔文·E·罗斯 (2012)、威廉·F·夏普 (1990)、罗伯特·J·席勒 (2013)、克里斯托弗·A·西姆斯 (2011) 和罗伯特·B·威尔逊 (2020)。
现状：预计经济将成为周四晚间总统辩论的焦点，两位候选人都在加强对钱包问题的处理。

• 除了承诺将美国企业税率从 21% 降至 20% 外，特朗普还希望取消休闲和酒店业工人的小费税。

• 拜登坚持提高企业税的计划——并承诺年收入低于 40 万美元的家庭不会增加税收。

• 根据一项新的无党派分析，这两种做法背后都隐含着持续增长的联邦债务，特朗普第一任期内的减税和支出使债务增加的幅度几乎是拜登的两倍。
缩小：拜登执政期间，经济稳步增长，劳动力市场强劲，通胀率居高不下。

• 选民们对前两个问题并不看好，但将第三个问题归咎于他，他们告诉民意调查人员，高物价是他们经济不安的主要原因。超过一半的选民（错误地）认为美国正处于衰退之中。

• 根据福克斯新闻最近的一项调查，约 68% 的美国人仍然认为经济“不太好”或“糟糕”。其余 32% 的选民认为经济“非常好”或“很好”。

• 这项民意调查显示，与之前更为严峻的调查相比，情况有所改善。
拜登政府正试图与选民达成妥协，要求他们接受通胀已经下降的事实，同时承认还有更多工作要做。

• 官员们也在利用他们拥有的手段试图说服选民，他们专注于降低价格。财政部长珍妮特·耶伦周一宣布了一项 1 亿美元的计划，用于支持经济适用房融资。

• 白宫也开始持消极态度，警告称特朗普当选总统将使通胀率达到新的高度，1 月 6 日对民主机构的攻击可能会破坏全球经济稳定。

16 位诺贝尔经济学奖得主警告称，特朗普的经济计划可能会重新引发通货膨胀

作者：Aimee Picchi 2024 年 6 月 25 日

选民对通货膨胀和整体经济感到沮丧 02:11

全球 16 位最著名的经济学家（均为诺贝尔经济学奖得主）警告称，如果前总统唐纳德·特朗普在 11 月赢得总统大选并推进其经济计划，他可能会引发通货膨胀。

“许多美国人都担心通货膨胀，通货膨胀已经下降得非常快。人们有理由担心唐纳德·特朗普会因其财政不负责任的预算而重新引发通货膨胀，”根据经济学家签署的一封信，其中包括 2001 年获得诺贝尔经济学奖的哥伦比亚大学教授约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨；以及 2013 年获得诺贝尔经济学奖的耶鲁大学教授罗伯特·席勒。

这一警告发布之际，美国仍在与顽固的通胀作斗争，美联储维持 20 多年来的最高利率，目标是冷却经济并将通胀率降至 2% 的年率。尽管通胀率已从 2022 年 6 月 9.1% 的近期峰值回落，但对通胀感到厌倦的美国人对经济感到沮丧，根据最新的 CBS 新闻民意调查，有 60% 的人将其评为糟糕、相当糟糕或非常糟糕。

其他经济学家也警告称，特朗普的政策可能会引发通胀，例如他提议对所有进口产品征收 10% 的全面关税以驱逐移民。彼得森国际经济研究所的专家表示，关税计划将为典型的美国家庭每年增加 1,700 美元的成本，本质上是一种通胀税。
经济学家警告称，驱逐移民可能会减少劳动力，给美国工人带来更多竞争，推高工资，也会增加通胀压力。

虽然斯蒂格利茨和其他 15 位诺贝尔奖获得者的信中没有详细说明特朗普计划的任何部分，但它确实赞扬了拜登总统的一些经济政策，从他的《通胀削减法案》到对美国制造业的投资。

信中说：“在担任总统的头四年里，拜登签署了对美国经济的重大投资法案，包括基础设施、国内制造业和气候投资。”“这些投资加在一起，可能会提高生产力和经济增长，同时降低长期通胀压力，促进清洁能源转型。”

他们补充说：“虽然我们每个人对各种经济政策的细节都有不同的看法，但我们都同意拜登的经济议程远远优于唐纳德·特朗普。”

“顶级经济学家、诺贝尔奖获得者和商界领袖都知道，美国承受不起特朗普危险的经济议程，”拜登竞选发言人詹姆斯·辛格告诉 CBS MoneyWatch。

“在唐纳德·特朗普的美国，富人支付更少，而工薪阶层支付更多，”他补充道。

“美国人民不需要毫无价值、与现实脱节的诺贝尔奖获得者来告诉他们哪位总统给他们带来了更多钱，”特朗普竞选全国新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特在发给 CBS MoneyWatch 的电子邮件声明中表示。

如果再次当选，特朗普计划实施“支持增长、支持能源、支持就业的议程，以降低生活成本并提升所有美国人的生活水平，”她补充道。

“我们签名者”：阅读这封信
您可以在下面阅读这封信的文本：

我们签名者对特朗普第二届政府对美国经济的风险深感担忧。

经济成功的最重要决定因素包括法治以及经济和政治确定性。对于像美国这样与其他国家有着深厚关系的国家来说，遵守国际规范并与其他国家保持正常稳定的关系也是必不可少的。唐纳德·特朗普及其行为和政策的变化无常威胁着这种稳定以及美国在世界上的地位。

虽然我们每个人对各种经济政策的细节都有不同的看法，但我们都同意乔·拜登的经济议程远远优于唐纳德·特朗普。在担任总统的头四年里，乔·拜登签署了对美国经济的重大投资法案，包括对基础设施、国内制造业和气候的投资。这些投资加在一起可能会提高生产力和经济增长，同时降低长期通胀压力并促进清洁能源转型。

在乔·拜登担任总统期间，我们还看到了劳动力市场异常强劲和公平的复苏——这得益于他的疫情刺激计划。乔·拜登再当四年总统，将使他能够继续支持包容性的美国经济复苏。

许多美国人担心通货膨胀，而通货膨胀已经下降得非常快。人们有理由担心唐纳德·特朗普会重新点燃这种通货膨胀，因为他的

财政上不负责任的预算。包括 Evercore、安联、牛津经济研究院和彼得森研究所在内的无党派研究人员预测，如果唐纳德·特朗普成功实施他的议程，将会增加通货膨胀。

这次选举的结果将在未来几年甚至几十年产生经济影响。我们认为，特朗普的第二个任期将对美国在世界上的经济地位产生负面影响，并对美国国内经济产生不稳定影响。

签名，

乔治·A·阿克洛夫（2001）

安格斯·迪顿爵士（2015）

克劳迪娅·戈尔丁（2023）

奥利弗·哈特爵士（2016）

埃里克·S·马斯金（2007）

丹尼尔·L·麦克法登（2000）

保罗·R·米尔格罗姆（2020）

罗杰·B·迈尔森（2007）

埃德蒙·S·菲尔普斯（2006）

保罗·M·罗默（2018）

阿尔文·E·罗斯（2012）

威廉·F·夏普（1990）

罗伯特·J·席勒（2013）

克里斯托弗·A·西姆斯（2011）

约瑟夫·E·斯蒂格利茨（2001）

罗伯特·B·威尔逊 (2020)

Scoop: 16 Nobel economists see a Trump inflation bomb

 

Hans Nichols   Jun 25, 2024 - Politics & Policy

 

Sixteen Nobel prize-winning economists are jumping into the presidential campaign with a stark warning: Former President Trump's plans would reignite inflation and cause lasting harm to the global economy if he wins in November.

Why it matters: The Nobel laureates are lending their academic prestige to a political argument the Biden administration has been making for weeks: Inflation would be worse under Trump.

 

• "While each of us has different views on the particulars of various economic policies, we all agree that Joe Biden's economic agenda is vastly superior to Donald Trump," the 16 economists write in a letter, first obtained by Axios.

Zoom in: Since prices spiked in the summer of 2022, Democrats have been playing defense on the economy.

 

• But their various explanations — including a brief embrace of the term "Bidenomics" and big media buys — don't seem to have worked. 

 

• Voters aren't vibing with an economy that the White House says is great.

 

• Now Biden's team wants to go on offense and draw attention to Trump's actual proposals — including his plans to impose fresh 10% duties on all imports, and minimum 60% tariffs on Chinese goods.

 

Driving the news: The economists' claim is part of a broader attempt by Biden's campaign to turn the 2024 election into a choice between the two candidates' plans for the future — and not necessarily a referendum on Biden's record.

 

• "We believe that a second Trump term would have a negative impact on the U.S.'s economic standing in the world, and a destabilizing effect on the U.S.'s domestic economy," the economists write in the letter.

 

• "Many Americans are concerned about inflation, which has come down remarkably fast. There is rightly a worry that Donald Trump will reignite this inflation, with his fiscally irresponsible budgets," they write.

The message was spearheaded by Joseph Stiglitz, who won the Nobel prize for economics in 2001. 

 

• He was joined by George A. Akerlof (2001), Sir Angus Deaton (2015), Claudia Goldin (2023), Sir Oliver Hart (2016), Eric S. Maskin (2007), Daniel L. McFadden (2000), Paul R. Milgrom (2020), Roger B. Myerson (2007), Edmund S. Phelps (2006), Paul M. Romer (2018), Alvin E. Roth (2012), William F. Sharpe (1990), Robert J. Shiller (2013), Christopher A. Sims (2011), and Robert B. Wilson (2020).

State of play: The economy is expected to be a focus of Thursday night's presidential debate, and both candidates are sharpening their approach to pocketbook issues.

 

• Besides promising corporate America to lower its tax rate from 21% to 20%, Trump wants to eliminate taxes on tipped wages for workers in the leisure and hospitality industries.

 

• Biden is sticking with his plan to raise taxes on corporations — and his promise that households who make less than $400,000 a year wouldn't see a tax increase.

 

• Looming behind both approaches is a federal debt that continues to grow, with tax cuts and spending in Trump's first term adding nearly twice to the debt as much as Biden's, according to a new nonpartisan analysis.

Zoom out: Biden has presided over a period of solid growth, a strong labor market, and stubbornly high inflation.

 

• Voters don't give him much credit for the first two but they blame him for the third, telling pollsters that high prices are a major source of their economic unease. More than half of voters (wrongly) think the U.S. is in a recession.

 

• Some 68% of Americans still think the economy is "not so good" or "poor" according to a recent Fox News survey. The remaining 32% of voters say it's "excellent" or "good."

 

• And that poll showed some improvement over earlier and grimmer surveys.

The Biden administration is trying to meet voters halfway, asking them to accept that inflation has come down while acknowledging there's more work to do.

 

• Officials also are using the levers they have to try to convince voters that they're focused on lowering prices. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's on Monday announced a $100 million plan to support affordable housing financing.

 

• The White House also is going negative, warning that a Trump presidency would take inflation to new heights and that Jan. 6-style attacks on democratic institutions could undermine global economic stability.

16 Nobel Prize-winning economists warn that Trump's economic plans could reignite inflation

By Aimee Picchi  June 25, 2024

Voters feeling frustrated with inflation and overall economy 02:11

Sixteen of the world's most notable economists — all Nobel Prize winners — are warning that former President Donald Trump could stoke inflation if he wins the presidency in November and moves forward with his economic plans. 

"Many Americans are concerned about inflation, which has come down remarkably fast. There is rightly a worry that Donald Trump will reignite this inflation, with his fiscally irresponsible budgets," according to a letter signed by the economists, who include Joseph Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor who won the Nobel prize for economics in 2001; and Yale professor Robert Shiller, who won the Nobel prize for economics in 2013. 

The warning comes as the U.S. continues to battle sticky inflation, with the Federal Reserve maintaining the highest interest rates in more than two decades with the goal of cooling the economy and driving inflation down to a 2% annual rate. Even though inflation has cooled from a recent peak of 9.1% in June 2022, inflation-weary Americans are glum about the economy, with 6 in 10 rating it as either bad, fairly bad or very bad, according to the latest CBS News poll. 

Trump's policies could prove to be inflationary, other economists also warned, such as his proposal to create a 10% across-the-board tariff on all imports to deporting immigrants. The tariff plan would add $1,700 in annual costs for the typical U.S. household, essentially acting as an inflationary tax, according to experts at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. 

Deporting immigrants could shrink the labor force, creating more competition for U.S. workers and pushing up wages, also adding to inflationary pressure, economists warn. 

While the letter from Stiglitz and the other 15 Nobel Prize winners didn't detail the specifics of any part of Trump's plans, it did single out praise for some of President Joe Biden's economic policies, ranging from his Inflation Reduction Act to investment in U.S. manufacturing. 

"In his first four years as President, Joe Biden signed into law major investments in the U.S. economy, including in infrastructure, domestic manufacturing and climate," the letter said. "Together, these investments are likely to increase productivity and economic growth while lowering long-term inflationary pressures and facilitating the clean energy transition."

They added, "While each of us has different views on the particulars of various economic policies, we all agree that Joe Biden's economic agenda is vastly superior to Donald Trump's."

"Top economists, Nobel Prize winners, and business leaders all know America can't afford Trump's dangerous economic agenda," Biden campaign spokesperson, James Singer, told CBS MoneyWatch.

 "In Donald Trump's America, the rich pay less, and working Americans pay more," he added.

"The American people don't need worthless out-of-touch Nobel Prize winners to tell them which president put more money in their pockets," Trump campaign national press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in an emailed statement to CBS MoneyWatch.

If re-elected, Trump plans to implement a "pro-growth, pro-energy, pro-jobs agenda to bring down the cost of living and uplift all Americans," she added.

"We the undersigned": Read the letter

You can read the text of the letter below:

We the undersigned are deeply concerned about the risks of a second Trump administration for the U.S. economy. 

Among the most important determinants of economic success are the rule of law and economic and political certainty. For a country like the U.S., which is embedded in deep relationships with other countries, conforming to international norms and having normal and stable relationships with other countries is also an imperative. Donald Trump and the vagaries of his actions and policies threaten this stability and the U.S.'s standing in the world. 

While each of us has different views on the particulars of various economic policies, we all agree that Joe Biden's economic agenda is vastly superior to Donald Trump's. In his first four years as President, Joe Biden signed into law major investments in the U.S. economy, including in infrastructure, domestic manufacturing, and climate. Together, these investments are likely to increase productivity and economic growth while lowering long-term inflationary pressures and facilitating the clean energy transition. 

During Joe Biden's presidency we have also seen a remarkably strong and equitable labor market recovery — enabled by his pandemic stimulus. An additional four years of Joe Biden's presidency would allow him to continue supporting an inclusive U.S. economic recovery. 

Many Americans are concerned about inflation, which has come down remarkably fast. There is rightly a worry that Donald Trump will reignite this inflation, with his fiscally irresponsible budgets. Nonpartisan researchers, including at Evercore, Allianz, Oxford Economics, and the Peterson Institute, predict that if Donald Trump successfully enacts his agenda, it will increase inflation. 

The outcome of this election will have economic repercussions for years, and possibly decades, to come. We believe that a second Trump term would have a negative impact on the U.S.'s economic standing in the world and a destabilizing effect on the U.S.'s domestic economy. 

Signed, 

George A. Akerlof (2001) 

University of California, Berkeley
Department of Economics
Tel No. [phone] Fax No. [phone]
[e-mail]

Sir Angus Deaton (2015) 

School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University
[e-mail], [e-mail]

Claudia Goldin (2023)

Henry Lee Professor of Economics, Harvard University
[e-mail], [e-mail], [e-mail]

Sir Oliver Hart (2016) 

Eric S. Maskin (2007) 

Daniel L. McFadden (2000) 

Paul R. Milgrom (2020) 

Roger B. Myerson (2007) 

Edmund S. Phelps (2006) 

Paul M. Romer (2018) 

Alvin E. Roth (2012) 

William F. Sharpe (1990) 

Robert J. Shiller (2013) 

Christopher A. Sims (2011) 

Joseph E. Stiglitz (2001) 

Robert B. Wilson (2020)