风萧萧_Frank
以文会友
Peter Schiff：2024 年对美元来说可能是可怕的一年
2024 年 1 月 3 日 作者：希夫戈尔德
https://schiffgold.com/peters-podcast/2024-could-be-horrible-for-the-dollar/
彼得·希夫 (Peter Schiff) 在年底发出了严厉警告：“2024 年对美元来说可能是可怕的一年。”
以下是彼得认为今年通胀可能进一步上升的三大原因。
1.美联储欲助推拜登连任
美联储深受政治动态的影响，随着 2024 年总统选举的临近，它已经在采取行动与现任政治人物保持一致。
“我认为美联储将尽其所能，试图让拜登连任，或者如果拜登不当选，任何可能参选的人连任……美联储主席总是希望与执政的政府合作。”
这与公然的政治偏见关系不大，更多的是与自我保护有关。
总统在任命美联储主席方面发挥着决定性作用。 鉴于此，杰罗姆·鲍威尔有动力优先考虑可能促进拜登连任的货币政策。 这正是我们所看到的。
美联储已宣布 2024 年至 2025 年大幅降低利率，战略时机是为了今年的美国大选。
彼得预测，美联储将在本次选举年结束前继续实行温和的通胀政策。
2.美国经济“实力”依赖于通胀
人们所认为的美国经济实力在很大程度上是虚幻的，是通胀政策而非真正的经济增长造成的假象。
Peter 解释说，2023 年较高的股市指数和其他金融指标反映了投资者对美联储通胀刺激措施的预期，而不是真正的经济进展：
“投资者预计债券将大幅上涨。 这就是他们的想法。 美联储将回归零或接近零的量化宽松政策。 因此，他们正在考虑所有这些因素。他们现在正在将这一宽松周期纳入市场定价。 他们正在押注。”
美联储宁愿保持宽松的货币政策，也不愿毁掉对更广泛经济的押注并遭受股市大规模崩盘。 国会也宁愿维持高预算，也不愿冒失去连任的风险。
这一切都会推高通货膨胀，彼得将其称为“他们唯一的魔术”。
3.美国贸易逆差的贡献
彼得将美元走软与美国近期巨额贸易赤字联系起来。 美元贬值将意味着大宗商品价格上涨，甚至贸易赤字增加，这反过来又会进一步削弱美元。
彼得解释说：
在美元如此疲软的环境下，通胀不可能下降，因为这确实会推高大宗商品价格。 这将推高我们的贸易赤字……这些巨额贸易赤字将给美元带来沉重压力。”
我们正在进入一个典型的场景，即货币贬值导致国内通胀。 贸易逆差不仅是经济问题的表象，也是美元贬值的一个因素。
只要美国继续维持这些赤字，美元的压力就会持续存在。
与此同时，投资者纷纷涌向瑞士法郎等其他避险资产。
2023 年，法郎大幅上涨 10%：
这对 2024 年的美元来说是一个非常负面的信号，但对黄金来说是一个积极的信号，因为人们正在购买瑞士法郎作为避风港。 黄金是比瑞士法郎更安全的避风港，但瑞士法郎对美元升值如此之大的事实表明人们对美元持怀疑态度。”
经济学家彼得·希夫警告“悲剧性结局”和美元崩溃——称“清算日即将到来”
https://news.bitcoin.com/economist-peter-schiff-warns-of-tragic-ending-and-us-dollar-collapse-says-day-of-reckoning-is-at-hand/
经济学家彼得·希夫警告说，美国经济正走向悲惨结局。 “我们将面临美元危机和主权债务危机，”他强调，并警告美联储“将印钞直至美元崩溃”。 他补充道：“我认为清算的日子即将到来。”
彼得希夫预见“悲剧结局”
经济学家兼黄金迷彼得·希夫上周在接受第一电视台采访时对美国经济和美元发出了更可怕的警告。
希夫解释说，我们目前正在经历的通货膨胀源于2008年的金融危机。 “政府为应对这场危机所做的事情——第一轮量化宽松、第二轮量化宽松、第三轮量化宽松——所有这些，再加上我们在新冠疫情期间所做的一切，就是所有通胀的根源。 只要我们继续维持巨额赤字，情况就会继续变得更糟，”这位经济学家解释道。
他指出，美国的年度预算赤字约为 2 万亿美元，且国家债务持续增加，他警告说：
这将导致未来的通货膨胀率比我们过去经历的要高得多……我认为 2024 年通货膨胀将成为比 2023 年更大的问题。
“利率是一个价格。 对于很多公司来说，这是一个重要的价格，就像劳动力、租金和原材料一样，公司借钱来开展业务、进行资本投资和扩张。 许多这些公司多年来都承担了债务，现在偿还债务的成本急剧上升，”黄金迷继续说道。
希夫还对美元崩溃发出警告。 “你已经可以看到世界正在试图放弃美元。 人们正在大力寻找美元的替代品。 它们就在那里，而且这种情况正在发生，”他强调道，并预测道：“随着我们的贸易伙伴放弃使用美元，美元将会快速贬值。 价格上涨的速度将比以往快得多，到了某个时候，就会失控。”
经济学家得出结论：
不幸的是，这个故事将会有一个悲惨的结局。 我们将面临美元危机和主权债务危机。 美联储将印钞直至美元崩溃。
“我认为清算的日子即将到来。 我不知道是明天，但很快就会到来，”他澄清道。
上周，希夫同样警告称，一场大规模危机和人们急于退出美元。 他多次警告称，美元崩盘是不可避免的。 7月，他建议所有人立即退出美元，并强调美联储对其衰退前景的看法是错误的。 上个月，他表示，在美联储达到通胀目标之前，美国经济将经历一场“全面的金融危机”。
您如何看待经济学家彼得·希夫的警告？ 请在下面的评论部分告诉我们。
这个故事中的标签
经济, 经济, 金融危机, 彼得·希夫, 美元崩溃
Peter Schiff 人们需要醒来：经济衰退、通货膨胀和美元崩溃
https://www.google.com/search?q=Wall+Street+tycoon%2C+Schiff%3A+currency+crisis%2C+dollar+asset+collapse&oq=
迷失彼得·希夫秀播客 2022 年 8 月 17 日
夏末的阳光可能会带来一点轻微的缓解，但坏消息似乎永远不会太遥远。 随着一个看起来相当黯淡的冬天即将到来，人们对我们所看到的不断加剧的通货膨胀的后果感到担忧，这是可以理解的，这就是为什么我快速追踪今天的客人回到伦敦皇家队的热门席位。
彼得·希夫 (Peter Schiff) 是一位经济学家、作家、金融评论员以及彼得·希夫秀播客的主持人。 他准确的预测使他成为经济问题上最受欢迎的评论员之一。
上次彼得和我一起参加节目时，我们讨论了冠状病毒大流行的潜在灾难性后果，以及它将如何导致前所未有的经济衰退，从而导致恶性通货膨胀以及食品成本增长速度快于股票价格的世界！
唉，我们到了。
随着政府支出继续推动这一叙事，我们看到了前所未有的通货膨胀和生活成本危机，这让许多人陷入绝望。 彼得最近几个月一直在告诉所有听众，事实上，我们已经陷入了经济衰退，一场比他在 2008 年正确预测的更严重的金融危机很可能发生。
彼得认为美联储已经向经济注入大量资金。 印钞，或者巧妙地提到的量化宽松，增加了需求，同时减少了供应。 对于彼得来说，这就是为什么你会看到我的巨大增长
目前的消费者价格。
“印钞只是另一种形式的税收。 政府不是抢夺公民的钱，而是抢夺他们的钱的购买力。”
Peter 的职业生涯始于 90 年代初的 Shearson Lehman Brothers，之后他与他人共同创立了 Euro Pacific Capital，并继续担任首席执行官兼首席全球策略师。 欧洲太平洋资本的投资策略侧重于在美元贬值的情况下进行长期财富储蓄，重点关注新兴市场和以大宗商品为重点的投资。
除此之外，Peter 于 2010 年创立了 SchiffGold 并担任名誉董事长，他长期以来一直认为投资者应该将其投资组合的 10-20% 配置为贵金属，作为在世界经济崩溃的情况下最安全的对冲手段。 事实上，彼得已经成为购买黄金大军中最响亮的声音之一，结合这种投资理念，他成为加密货币最直言不讳的批评者之一，这可能并不奇怪。
然而，早在 2006 年，彼得就真正成为了头条新闻，因为他是主流网络上极少数正确预测 2008 年金融危机的经济预测者之一。 他对货币、经济理论和国际投资的专业知识和深入理解使他成为《华尔街日报》、《纽约时报》、CNBC、CNN 和福克斯新闻等世界各地媒体的首选分析师。
他曾涉足政治舞台，首先担任罗恩·保罗 (Ron Paul) 2008 年总统竞选活动的经济顾问，后来于 2010 年作为共和党人竞选康涅狄格州的美国参议院议员，他的自由主义倾向为变革提供了理由。
作为一名作家，彼得写了五本畅销书，包括《警钟警钟：如何从即将到来的经济崩溃中获利》，而他的播客“彼得希夫秀”每天提供与金钱相关的一切最新信息，从投资到政府政策。
这次采访可能是我一段时间以来录制的最重要的采访之一，因为其中包含的警告将帮助大家更好地理解为什么一个如此严重依赖美元的世界正处于经济混乱的边缘 。
彼得是一个很棒的人，尽管经常存在一些分歧的观点，但他的正确远远多于错误。 他着眼于更广阔的前景，并对自己的工作充满热情。 对他来说，我们正在梦游，走向另一场灾难，一场可能无法很快逆转的灾难，但是，有一些方法可以避免这种结果，我们肯定会在今天的节目中探讨这些方法。
在过去的 11 年里，我孜孜不倦地工作，以确保伦敦皇家银行能够维护其创建时所秉持的价值观。 我们热切地关心言论自由、独立广播的力量和需求，最重要的是为您服务，这个社区始终与我们同甘共苦。
随着我们的不断发展，我们希望确保您有机会分得一杯羹，从而确保我们保持您喜欢的客人的水准，从世界上最伟大的思想家到金融奇才、哲学家和影响者。 现在还有时间成为我们未来的一部分，所以现在就在invest.londonreal.tv 上注册并永远拥有伦敦皇家银行的一部分。
Peter Schiff: 2024 Could Be Horrible For the Dollar
Here are 3 big reasons why Peter thinks inflation might rise even higher this year.
1. The Fed wants to boost Biden’s reelection
The Fed is deeply influenced by political dynamics and, with the 2024 presidential election around the corner, it’s already maneuvering to align with the political incumbent.
“I think that the Fed is going to be doing everything it can to try to reelect Biden or whoever may run if Biden does not… The Fed chairman always wants to play ball with whichever Administration is in power.”
This has less to do with blatant political bias and more to do with self-preservation.
The President plays a decisive role in appointing the Fed chair. Given this, Jerome Powell is incentivized to prioritize monetary policies that could boost a Biden reelection. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing.
The Fed already announced considerably lower interest rates in 2024 through 2025, strategically timed for this year’s US election.
Peter predicts that the Fed will continue its dovish, inflationary policies through the end of this election year.
2. US Economic “Strength” Rides on Inflation
The perceived strength of the US economy is largely illusory, a facade created by inflationary policies rather than genuine economic growth.
Peter explains that higher stock market indexes and other financial indicators in 2023 reflect investor expectations of inflationary Fed stimulus rather than genuine economic progress:
“Investors are anticipating a big bond rally. That’s what they think. The Fed is going to going to go back to zero or close to it back to quantitative easing. And so they’re factoring all this in. They’re pricing this easing cycle into the markets now. They’re betting on it.”
Rather than ruin the bets of the broader economy and suffer a massive stock market collapse, the Fed would rather keep monetary policy loose. Congress, too, would prefer to maintain high budgets than risk losing reelection.
This all drives up inflation, which Peter dubs as “the only magic trick they have.”
3. U.S. Trade Deficits Contribute
Peter links the dollar’s weakening to recent large U.S. trade deficits. A cheap dollar will mean higher commodity prices and even higher trade deficits, which in turn will undermine the dollar further.
Peter explains:
There’s no way that inflation is going to come down in an environment where the dollar is that weak, because that’s going to really push up commodity prices. That’s going to push up our trade deficit… These big trade deficits are going to weigh heavily on the dollar.”
We’re entering a classic scenario where a depreciating currency contributes to domestic inflation. Trade deficits are not just a symptom of economic issues but also a causative factor in the declining value of the dollar.
As long as the U.S. continues to run these deficits, the pressure on the dollar will persist.
Meanwhile, investors are flocking to other safe haven assets, like the Swiss Franc.
In 2023, the Franc was up a whopping 10%:
That is a very negative sign for the dollar for 2024 and a positive sign for gold because people are buying the Swiss frank as a safe haven. Gold is an even safer haven than the Swiss franc, but the fact that the Swiss franc is gaining so much on the dollar is an indication that people are leery of the dollar.”
Economist Peter Schiff Warns of 'Tragic Ending' and US Dollar Collapse — Says 'Day of Reckoning Is at Hand'
Economist Peter Schiff has warned that the U.S. economy is headed for a tragic ending. “We're going to have a dollar crisis and a sovereign debt crisis,” he stressed, cautioning that the Federal Reserve is “going to print money until the dollar collapses.” He added: “I think that day of reckoning is at hand.”
Peter Schiff Foresees 'Tragic Ending'
Economist and gold bug Peter Schiff issued more dire warnings about the U.S. economy and the U.S. dollar in an interview on First TV last week.
Schiff explained that the current inflation we are experiencing has its origin in the 2008 financial crisis. “What the government did in response to that crisis — QE1, QE2, QE3 — all of that, plus what we did during Covid, that is the source of all this inflation. And it’s going to continue to get worse as long as we continue to run these massive deficits,” the economist explained.
Noting that the U.S. is running annual budget deficits of around $2 trillion and its national debt continues to increase, he cautioned:
This is going to lead to much higher inflation in the future than what we’ve experienced in the past … I think inflation is going to be a much bigger problem in 2024 than it was in 2023.
“Interest rates are a price. And it’s an important price for a lot of companies, just like labor, and rent, and raw materials, companies borrow money to conduct their business, to make capital investments, to expand. A lot of these companies have taken up debt over the years and now the cost of servicing that debt has risen sharply,” the gold bug continued.
Schiff also warned about the collapse of the USD. “You can already see the world is trying to divest itself of the dollar. There’s a big movement to look for alternatives to the U.S. dollar. They’re there and that’s happening,” he emphasized, predicting: “As our trading partners move away from the dollar, the dollar is going to fall very fast. Prices are going to rise much faster than they have been and at some point, it’s going to spiral out of control.”
The economist concluded:
The story is going to have a tragic ending, unfortunately. We’re going to have a dollar crisis and a sovereign debt crisis. The Fed is going to print money until the dollar collapses.
“I think that day of reckoning is at hand. I don’t know that it’s tomorrow, but it’s coming sometime soon,” he clarified.
Last week, Schiff similarly warned about a massive crisis and a rush to get out of the U.S. dollar. He has repeatedly cautioned that a U.S. dollar collapse is inevitable. In July, he advised everyone to get out of the dollar now, emphasizing that the Federal Reserve is wrong about its recession outlook. Last month, he said the U.S. economy will experience a “full-blown financial crisis” before the Fed reaches its inflation target.
What do you think about the warning by economist Peter Schiff? Let us know in the comments section below.
TAGS IN THIS STORY
Lost of the Peter Schiff Show Podcast
The sun might be shining as late summer provides a small dose of light relief, but the bad news never seems too far away these days. With a rather bleak looking winter on the horizon, people are understandably concerned about the ramifications of the ever increasing inflation we’re seeing, which is why I’ve fast tracked today’s guest back into the London Real hotseat.
Peter Schiff is an economist, author, financial commentator, and host of The Peter Schiff Show podcast. His accurate forecasts have made him one of the most sought-after commentators when it comes to matters of the economy.
The last time Peter joined me on the show we discussed the potentially catastrophic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic and how it would cause an unparalleled economic downturn that will result in hyperinflation and a world where the cost of food increases faster than the price of stocks!
Alas, here we are.
As government spending continues to drive the narrative we are seeing unprecedented inflation and a cost of living crisis that is driving many to despair. Peter has spent recent months telling all who listen, that in actual fact, we are already deep into a recession and a financial crisis far worse than the one he correctly predicted in 2008, is very much on the cards.
Peter argues the Federal Reserve has flooded the economy with money. Money printing, or quantitative easing as it’s subtly referred to, has increased demand while decreasing supply. For Peter, that is why you’re seeing this huge increase in consumer prices right now.
“Printing money is merely taxation in another form. Rather than robbing citizens of their money, a government robs their money of its purchasing power.”
Peter’s career began at Shearson Lehman Brothers in the early 90s, before he co-founded Euro Pacific Capital where he continues to serve as CEO and Chief Global Strategist. Euro Pacific Capital’s investment strategy focuses on long-term wealth savings in the face of a declining US dollar with an emphasis on emerging market and commodity-focused investments.
Alongside this, Peter started SchiffGold in 2010 and serves as Honorary Chairman, having long reasoned that investors should allocate 10-20% of their portfolios to precious physical metals, as the safest hedge amid a collapsing world economy. In fact, Peter has become one of the loudest voices in the buy gold brigade, and it’ll perhaps be little surprise to many that in conjunction with this investment philosophy he is one of cryptocurrency’s most outspoken critics.
It was back in 2006 however, that Peter really made the headlines after being one of the very few economic forecasters on the mainstream networks to correctly predict the 2008 financial crisis. His expertise and sound understanding of money, economic theory, and international investing make him the go-to analyst on media outlets around the world from The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times, to CNBC, CNN, and Fox News.
He has spent time in the political arena, first serving as an economic advisor for Ron Paul’s 2008 presidential campaign and later running for the United States Senate in Connecticut in 2010, as a Republican, where his libertarian leanings made a case for change.
As an author, Peter has penned five bestselling books including the searing wake-up call Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse, while his podcast The Peter Schiff Show gives daily updates on everything money related, from investments to government policy.
This interview might be one of the most important I’ve recorded for a while, as the warnings it contains will help all of you to better understand exactly why a world that relies so heavily on the US dollar, is on the brink of economic chaos.
Peter is a fantastic guy, who despite some often divisive opinions is right far more than he’s wrong. He looks at the wider picture and is passionate about his work. For him, we are sleepwalking our way to another disaster, one that probably can’t be reversed anytime soon, however, there are ways to hedge against such outcomes and we’ll certainly explore those in today’s episode.
For the last 11 years I’ve worked tirelessly to ensure that London Real upholds the values for which it was created. We care passionately about Freedom of Speech, the power and need for independent broadcasting and most importantly serving you, the community that has stood by us through thick and thin.
As we continue to grow, we want to make sure that you get the chance to own a slice of the pie and therefore ensure we maintain the calibre of guests you so enjoy, from the world’s greatest thinkers to financial wizards, philosophers and influencers. There is still time to be a part of our future so sign up now at invest.londonreal.tv and own a part of London Real forever.
Download clips
A number of clips from this exclusive interview are now available to download, share and repost. Spread the word: grab these clips today!
