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萨克斯：诽谤中国经济的恶行将会失败，理应失败
https://www.jeffsachs.org/newspaper-articles/rd6mln7g7taw4pmf4ntw578k6ljja9
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202401/1306066.shtml
杰弗里·D·萨克斯《环球时报》2024 年 1 月 25 日
编者按：尽管面临复杂的国际形势和多重阻力，2023年中国经济仍增长5.2%，超额完成预期目标。 然而，最近西方媒体出现了新一波对中国经济非常负面的报道，试图削弱投资者对中国未来的信心。 为了反驳西方媒体明显偏离中国经济真实状况的恶意歪曲，《环球时报》邀请世界著名美国经济学家杰弗里·萨克斯（Sachs）发表观点。
环球时报：在全球经济低迷的背景下，您如何看待2023年中国经济5.2%的增长，这是后疫情复苏的元年？
萨克斯：这是一次非常令人尊敬的表现。 美国的增长率约为 2.5%。 还要记住，美国人口每年增长约0.5%，而中国人口增长基本为零，因此以人均计算，中国的增长优势甚至更大。
环球时报：美国主流媒体和知名经济学家批评2023年中国经济表现“疲软”。 不少头条称“中国经济遇到困难，各项指标不及预期”。 您对此有何看法？
萨克斯：美国政府正在积极尝试通过设置贸易和技术壁垒来减缓中国经济增长。 美国通过关税等正式手段和对美国企业的非正式施压，对中国输美产品设置壁垒。 美国还引入了技术和投资壁垒。
美国政府和主流媒体都在宣扬中国经济陷入困境的观点。 这有点像回声室。 一位与政府关系密切的记者写道，然后其他记者重复同样夸张的故事。 他们对中国或中国经济的深层优势了解不多，包括技术的重大进步、全球出口竞争力以及高储蓄率和投资率。
美国削弱中国经济的企图可能会产生一些轻微的短期后果（主要是中国企业出口增长放缓以及中国投资适度转向东盟国家），但我认为负面影响不会很大。 美国政府的恶作剧将会失败，这是理所应当的。
GT：2023年中国经济出现许多新亮点。“新三项”——电动汽车（EV）、锂电池和太阳能电池——出口首次突破1万亿元人民币（1400亿美元）大关。 2023年中国成为最大的电动汽车出口国。您如何看待这些新的增长引擎？
萨克斯：中国是世界上大多数绿色和数字技术的低成本生产国，例如电动汽车、光伏系统和5G设备。 这将使中国在未来十年处于全球强势地位，因为世界需要进行重大的能源转型，而中国将成为新型低碳基础设施、互联互通和电器的主要提供者。
环球时报：中国经济工作越来越注重扩大内需。 您如何看待中国庞大的国内市场的优势，对于充分挖掘中国国内市场的潜力有何建议？
萨克斯：我认为中国仍应努力实现出口导向型增长，但现在更多地面向新兴市场经济体（金砖国家、非盟、拉丁美洲、西亚、中亚），而不是美国或欧盟。 中国应该成为世界新兴经济体绿色和数字化转型的主要提供者。 这有利于中国、有利于中国的贸易伙伴、也有利于全球环境保护。 “一带一路”倡议在这方面仍然非常重要。 中国应继续支持“一带一路”倡议，将其作为全球转型、全球增长和中国经济增长的重要倡议。
GT：您认为2024年中国经济的关键驱动因素是什么？
萨克斯：关键因素将是中国成功促进新兴/金砖国家经济体的全球增长，以及中国在人工智能、半导体、零碳能源、电池技术、精准医疗、精准农业、 低碳交通（航运、航空）、高铁等领域。
GT：您如何评价当前中国的经济形势？ 您如何看待2024年中国经济前景？ 您认为哪些领域提供了最大的机会？
萨克斯：正如我刚才所说，我相信中国的增长将是高质量的增长，主要通过技术升级、数字化应用和绿色转型。 这将发生在中国内部，也将发生在中国之间
以及亚洲、非洲和拉丁美洲的主要贸易伙伴。 当然，我希望美国停止对华贸易战，这违反了世贸组织的规定，对美国不利，对中国无益。
GT：世界银行表示，全球经济增长预计将连续第三年放缓，从去年的 2.6% 降至 2024 年的 2.4%。 在世界经济面临不确定性的背景下，主要经济体应如何共同应对挑战、促进全球增长，而不是将经济问题政治化？
萨克斯：世界经济的主要解决方案是停止乌克兰和中东的战争，缓解西方与中国之间的贸易紧张局势，并合作建设高效的数字、绿色全球经济。 所有这一切都可以通过外交实现。
美国应立即停止试图将北约扩大到乌克兰，从而结束乌克兰战争。 美国应该停止武装以色列，从而结束中东战争。 美国应遵守与中国有关台湾岛的协议，以缓解台湾问题的紧张局势。 在1982年的美中公报中，美国承诺逐步停止对台军售。 美国应该遵守其协议，从而实现和平关系并缓解紧张局势。
环球时报：您如何看待中国经济平稳向好发展的全球意义？
萨克斯：中国的经济进步对中国人民来说非常积极，对世界也非常有利。 包括中国在内的任何地方的经济进步对世界来说都是双赢的命题。 美国错误地认为世界经济是一场“零和”斗争，中国的进步对美国不利。 这是一个严重错误的观点。
Mischief of slandering China's economy will fail, as it should: Sachs
https://www.jeffsachs.org/newspaper-articles/rd6mln7g7taw4pmf4ntw578k6ljja9
Jeffrey D. Sachs Global Times
Editor's Note: Despite facing a complex international situation and multiple headwinds, China's economy expanded by 5.2 percent in 2023, surpassing the target. However, a new wave of very negative narratives about China's economy has emerged in the Western media lately, attempting to undermine investors' confidence in China's future. To counter Western media's malicious distortions that clearly deviates from the real state of the Chinese economy, the Global Times (GT) invited Jeffrey Sachs (Sachs), a world-renowned American economist, to provide his perspectives.
GT: How do you view the 5.2 percent growth of China's economy in 2023, the first year of the post-COVID recovery amid global gloom?
Sachs: This is a very respectable performance. US growth was about 2.5 percent. Remember too that the US population is growing about 0.5 percent per year, while population growth in China is essentially zero, so China's growth advantage is even greater when expressed in per capita terms.
GT: Mainstream US media and well-known economists criticized the performance of the Chinese economy in 2023 as being "weak." Many headlines claimed that the "Chinese economy encountered trouble and various indicators fell short of expectations." What is your perspective on that?
Sachs: The US government is actively trying to slow the Chinese economy through erecting trade and technology barriers. The US has put up barriers to China's exports to the US through both formal means such as tariffs and informal arm-twisting of US companies. The US has also introduced technology and investment barriers.
The US government and therefore the mainstream media are promoting the view that China's economy is in trouble. This is a bit of an echo chamber. One reporter close to the government writes it, and then other reporters repeat the same exaggerated story. They don't know much about China or about the deep strengths of China's economy, including major advances in technology, global export competitiveness, and high saving and investment rates.
US attempts to weaken the Chinese economy may have some modest short-run consequences (mainly slower export growth by Chinese companies and modest displacements of investments from China into ASEAN countries) but the adverse effects will not be large, in my view. The US government's mischief will fail, as it should.
GT: There were many new bright spots in China's economy in 2023. Exports of the "new three items" - electric vehicles (EVs), lithium batteries and solar cells - for the first time exceeded the 1 trillion yuan ($140 billion) mark. China became the largest EV exporter in 2023. How do you view these new growth engines?
Sachs: China is the world's low-cost producer of most green and digital technologies, such as EVs, photovoltaic systems and 5G equipment. This will put China in a strong global position for the coming decade, since the world needs to make a major energy transition and China will be a key provider of the new low-carbon infrastructure, connectivity and appliances.
GT: China's economic work is increasingly focused on expanding domestic demand. How do you view the advantages of China's large home market, and what suggestions do you have for fully tapping the potential of domestic market in China?
Sachs: I believe that China should still strive for export-led growth, but now more to the emerging market economies (BRICS, African Union, Latin America, Western Asia, Central Asia) than to the US or the EU. China should be the key provider for the green and digital transformation of the world's emerging economies. This will be good for China, for China's trade partners and for global environmental protection. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) remains very important in this regard. China should continue to champion the BRI as a very important initiative for global transformation, global growth and China's economic growth.
GT: What do you believe will be the key driving factors for China's economy in 2024?
Sachs: The key factors will be China's successful promotion of global growth in the emerging/BRICS economies, as well as China's continued dynamism in technological advancement - in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, zero-carbon energy, battery technology, precision medicine, precision agriculture, low-carbon transport (shipping and aviation), high-speed rail and other areas.
GT: How do you evaluate the current economic situation of China? How do you view China's economic prospects in 2024? Which areas do you think offer the greatest opportunities?
Sachs: As I've said, I believe that China's growth will be quality-based, mainly through technological upgrading, digital applications and the green transformation. This will happen within China and also between China and its major trading partners in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Of course, I hope that the US stops its trade war with China, which violates the WTO and is bad for the US and unhelpful for China.
GT: Global growth is projected to slow for the third year in a row - from 2.6 percent last year to 2.4 percent in 2024, the World Bank said. In a world battling economic uncertainties, how should major economies jointly tackle challenges and promote global growth rather than politicizing economic issues?
Sachs: The main solutions to the world economy are to stop the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, reduce trade tensions between the West and China, and cooperate on building an efficient digital, green global economy. All of this is possible through diplomacy.
The US should stop immediately trying to expand NATO to Ukraine, thereby ending the war in Ukraine. The US should stop arming Israel, thereby ending the war in the Middle East. And the US should abide by agreements with China regarding the Taiwan island, so as to reduce the tensions over Taiwan. In the 1982 US-China Communique, the US promised to phase out arms sales to Taiwan. The US should honor its agreements, leading to peaceful relations and a reduction of tension.
GT: How do you view the global significance of the steady and positive development of China's economy?
Sachs: China's economic progress has been extraordinarily positive for the Chinese people and very good for the world. Economic progress anywhere, including in China, is a win-win proposition for the world. The US mistakenly thinks that the world economy is a "zero-sum" struggle, in which China's progress is somehow bad for the US. This is a badly mistaken view.
