2023 厄尔尼诺干旱 亚洲稻米价格飙升至两年高点

受厄尔尼诺干旱风险影响，亚洲稻米价格飙升至两年高点

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/rice-soars-two-high-asia-051550639.html

纳帕特·孔萨瓦德 2023 年 7 月 11 日

（彭博社）——亚洲大米价格飙升至两年多来的最高水平，因为进口商担心厄尔尼诺现象的出现会导致种植园干涸并损害农作物，因此增加了库存。
泰国大米出口商协会的数据显示，该地区的基准等级泰国白米 5% 破碎在过去四个月内上涨了约 15%，至每吨 535 美元，为 2021 年 3 月初以来的最高水平。

据世界气象组织称，热带太平洋七年来首次出现厄尔尼诺现象，有可能给东南亚带来干旱。 与此同时，上周连续三天的全球气温创纪录，加剧了人们对气候变化速度的担忧。

虽然季风降雨给最大出口国印度部分地区的稻田带来了缓解，但干燥天气正在威胁第二大出口国泰国的作物，该国从 2024 年初开始将面临大范围干旱。政府已要求农民限制种植 今年只种植一种作物。

泰国大米出口商协会名誉主席 Chookiat Ophaswongse 表示：“随着厄尔尼诺现象的出现，我们将在 9 月和 10 月左右开始清楚地看到干燥天气的影响。” “话虽如此，随着厄尔尼诺现象似乎将持续到明年，我们将看到库存继续增加。”

印尼采购

进口商已开始以激进的速度建立库存。 越南预计今年大米出口量将攀升至约十年来的最高水平，向菲律宾、中国和印度尼西亚买家的出口量将激增。

研究公司 The Rice Trader 的创始人兼首席执行官杰里米·茨温格 (Jeremy Zwinger) 表示：“来自印度尼西亚和菲律宾的大量购买推动了市场走高。” 尽管如此，“除非政治或天气改变方向，否则疲软将在新的一年甚至第四季度再次出现。”

茨温格说，全球大米供应量仍然异常庞大。 美国农业部的数据显示，尽管全球年终库存已连续两年下降，但仍创下历史新高。

据中国气象局称，未来几天，中国南方许多地区可能会持续出现热浪，其中水稻主产省份湖南和江西的部分地区气温将高达40摄氏度。 报告称，高温将迫使这些地区的一些水稻过早成熟，这是“高风险”。

——在顾荷莉的帮助下。

Rice Soars to Two-Year High in Asia on El Niño Drought Risks

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/rice-soars-two-high-asia-051550639.html

Napat Kongsawad  July 11, 2023

(Bloomberg) -- Rice prices in Asia have surged to the highest level in more than two years as importers build up stockpiles on fears that the onset of El Niño will parch plantations and damage crops.

A benchmark grade in the region, Thai white rice 5% broken, has climbed about 15% in the past four months to $535 a ton, the strongest since early March 2021, according to data from the Thai Rice Exporters Association.

El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years, according to the World Meteorological Organization, threatening to bring drought to Southeast Asia. That comes just as three days of record global temperatures last week increased concerns over the pace of climate change.

While monsoon rains have brought relief to rice fields in parts of India, the top exporter, dry weather is threatening crops in No. 2 shipper Thailand, with the country facing widespread drought conditions from early 2024. The government has already asked farmers to restrict their planting to just one crop this year.

“With El Niño, we’ll start to clearly see the effects of dry weather later around September and October,” said Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association. “This being said, we’ll see stockpiling continue as El Niño looks set to drag on into next year.”

Indonesian Purchases

Importers have started building inventories at aggressive rates. Vietnam expects rice exports this year to climb to the highest in about a decade, with shipments surging to buyers in the Philippines, China and Indonesia.

“The large buying from Indonesia and Philippines has pushed the market higher,” said Jeremy Zwinger, founder and chief executive officer of research firm The Rice Trader. Still, “weakness will return in the new year or even the fourth quarter, unless politics or weather changes direction.”

Global rice supplies remain exceptionally large, Zwinger said. While the world’s year-ending stockpiles have dropped for two years, they are coming off a record high, according to data from the US Department of Agriculture.

Heat waves are likely to persist in many areas of southern China in the next few days, with temperatures rising as high as 40C in parts of Hunan and Jiangxi, top rice-growing provinces, according to the China Meteorological Administration. There’s a “high risk” that heat will force the premature ripening of some rice in these areas, it said.

--With assistance from Hallie Gu.