2017年美中贸易逆差50年最高 The Booming of U.S. Economy is the reason

2017年美中贸易逆差创下50年来最高纪录

信源：法广网｜编辑：2018-01-13

多年来居高不下的美中贸易顺差2017年攀上新的高峰。根据中国海关12日发布的数据显示，2017年美中贸易逆差扩大了10%，至2,758亿美元。《华尔街日报》称，在美国考虑通过一系列处罚和其他行动抑制美中贸易失衡之际，最新的贸易数据将使特朗普政府更有理由批评中国的贸易行为。

在美国的贸易伙伴中，美国对中国的贸易逆差最大，2017年则是近50年有记录以来贸易逆差最高的一年，刷新了2015年2,610亿美元的前历史新高。但美国的数据显示，2015年对华贸易逆差为3,670亿美元。

目前美中贸易关系已然面临巨大压力，两国官员均表示，即便不爆发全面的贸易战，也有可能引发一轮报复行动。未来几周，特朗普政府需要决定是否对进口自中国的太阳能板、钢材和铝材施以处罚。此外，围绕中国是否强迫美国公司共享自主技术和信息以换取中国市场准入的调查也在进行当中。

特朗普曾在竞选总统期间将中国描述成国际贸易的掠夺者。

在中国最新贸易数据出炉前，特朗普接受《华尔街日报》采访时表示，如果不是因为在向朝鲜施压促其放弃核武研发问题上需要中国的帮助，他原本希望对中国采取更严厉措施来纠正美中贸易失衡现象。特朗普表示，美国对中国的强硬程度远胜以往，但仍未达到他最初的期望程度。 在与美国官员和企业举行的闭门会议上，中国官员已表明立场，即无论美国采取什么惩罚措施，中方都会采取报复行动。

Has China Hit Its Peak? How Demography, Economics & Geography Will Limit China's...

The U.S. Economy Is Booming, Which Is Why The U.S. Trade Deficit With China Grew In 2017 

By Salvatore Babones JAN 12, 2018 @ 09:18 AM 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/salvatorebabones/2017/12/31/china-max-how-demography-economics-and-geography-will-combine-to-limit-chinas-growing-power/2/#170cfb821ad8

In this Wednesday, Dec. 13, 2017, photo, container ships are unloaded at the Port of Oakland in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

China's trade surplus with the United States rose by 13% in 2017 to a record $288 billion, according to Chinese official data. The actual figure reported on the Chinese side was 1.87 trillion yuan, which most Western news outlets converted to $276 billion. What's $12 billion between friends? Take your pick; both numbers are big.

But not big enough. The U.S. reports trade figures monthly, and U.S. data showed that the trade deficit was already $342 billion by the end of November. Consolidating the $30 billion U.S. surplus with Hong Kong (most of which goes to China) puts the all-China deficit at $312 billion for the first 11 months of 2017. Add in another $30 billion or so for December, and the full-year 2017 U.S. trade deficit with China and Hong Kong is likely to come in at around $340 billion.

That means that the final 2017 U.S. deficit with China/HKG may be up 17%-18% from the $280 billion consolidated China/HKG deficit recorded for 2016.  The official U.S. trade deficit with China reported by the U.S. Census Bureau on February 6 will be big, growing and politically messy. And it shouldn't worry anyone at all.

U.S. President Donald Trump hosts an event to celebrate Congress passing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act with Republican members of the House and Senate on the South Lawn of the White House December 20, 2017 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Trade deficits mean different things in different economies at different times. In a weak economy hit by major shocks and falling into recession, big trade deficits can be a sign that a country is spiraling out of control toward a balance of payments crisis. But that hardly applies to the U.S. today.

In a strong economy, a big trade deficit simply means that more capital is flowing into a country than is flowing out.That's because when the capital account is positive, the current account has to be negative to balance it out. And a negative current account means a trade deficit.

They question for America's economic health is: Why capital is flowing in? Is capital pouring into the United States right now seeking investment opportunities, or is capital being sucked into the U.S. because of an economic crisis requiring external funds to stabilize a rapidly deteriorating situation?

Coming amidst the fastest economic growth in three years and four Fed rate hikes in 12 months, it seems clear that America's burgeoning capital account surplus reflects the fact that international investors are looking for a piece of the action in the world's more advanced, most dynamic mature economy.

If the Trump tax cuts succeed in boosting growth and (especially) in convincing companies to repatriate profitscurrently held overseas, look for the U.S. trade deficit to widen even further in 2018 as the money pours in. That may be good, bad or neither for long-term economic growth, depending on who you believe. But it will still have nothing to do with China. The U.S. trade deficit is proudly made in America.

 

Salvatore Babones hosts the weekly livestream global affairs interview show Midnight in America Friday nights on YouTube. Follow him on Twitter @sbabones.