从流感数据看新冠压平曲线战略

新冠压平曲线战略是根据流感经验而制定的，对新冠疫情效果不佳，但对流感效果非常显著，以至于2020-2021流感季节几乎没有流感病例。对于新冠疫情，专家们犯了经验主义和教条主义错误，方不对症。

以下抄自CDC的流感总结。从流感这个侧面，也可以看出在Omicron这轮疫情，美国不少人自发地抛弃了压平曲线而选择了反向隔离。

（2019-2020）The overall burden of influenza (flu) for the 2019-2020 was an estimated 35 million flu-related illnesses, 16 million flu-related medical visits, 380,000 flu-related hospitalizations, and 20,000 flu-related deaths.

（2020-2021） During September 28, 2020–May 22, 2021 in the United States, 1,675 (0.2%) of 818,939 respiratory specimens tested by U.S. clinical laboratories were positive for an influenza virus. 

（2021-2022） CDC estimates that, so far this season, there have been at least 6.4 million flu illnesses, 65,000 hospitalizations, and 4,000 deaths from flu.