风萧萧_Frank
以文会友
John Clark 我又在吐槽挪威的主权财富基金了
是的，我又在吐槽挪威的主权财富基金了。
https://renx.ca/rant-norway-sovereign-wealth-fund-canada
想以负责任和前瞻性的方式处理这1万亿美元，想必很不容易……
2019年6月11日 John Clark AACI | 区域集团公司副总裁
jclark@regionalgroup.com
想以负责任和前瞻性的方式处理这1万亿美元，想必很不容易。
当然，我们加拿大没有这个问题。与其他某个北极国家不同，加拿大很久以前就未能利用我们丰富的自然资源和能源储备，为所有加拿大人积累如今都能享用的财富。
这项荣誉属于挪威。无论从哪个角度来看，挪威的国土面积、人口数量，还是Tim Hortons门店的数量，都远不及加拿大。
早在2014年4月，我就曾撰文探讨过与挪威相比，加拿大是如何挥霍财富的。
正如我在那篇文章中所述，这一切始于20世纪60年代末，当时一位伊拉克地质学家带着家人来到挪威，为他的儿子寻找最佳的脑瘫治疗方法。这位地质学家的工作最终发现了预计可开采至2050年的石油储备。
长远的财富观
当时的挪威政府充分意识到石油储量并非无限。因此，它实施了规划政策，以期为国家创造长期财富，并缓冲全球大宗商品市场周期性波动带来的影响。
这种干预主义的模式与加拿大的自由市场模式形成了鲜明对比，后者任由供需双方以及私营部门利益相关者的利益变化无常的命运摆布。
挪威通过一家名为StatOil的国家石油公司（一家独立的行业监管机构）来保护其利益，并规定StatOil在未来所有与外国石油公司合作的油田勘探中拥有不低于50%的股份。
然而，接下来发生的事情才是关键。1990年，挪威设立了国家石油基金。
该基金中只有4%用于一般政府收入，并且仅用于资助基础设施、教育和研究等重要项目。其余资金则被反复投资。
加拿大几乎没有尝试效仿
在国家层面，加拿大从未采取过如此大胆而审慎的举措。阿尔伯塔省曾尝试过，并于1976年设立了遗产储蓄信托基金。由于一些管理决策（我在这里就不赘述了），该基金的规模并不大——根据最新的数据，2014年约为170亿美元。
我为什么现在又要反复提起这个话题？由于最近新闻报道了此事，以下是立法者希望对挪威1万亿美元主权财富基金采取的措施。
彭博社的文章写道：
“主要立法者批准了对挪威1万亿美元主权财富基金进行一系列改革——从剥离部分石油股票，到全面改革其固定收益资产，以及加强对煤炭投资的限制。”
政府对全球最大财富基金的严格控制依然盛行，其道德准则包括禁止烟草投资、气候和人权标准等。
挪威保守党政府已成立一个小组来审查这些准则，而反对党工党正在推动制定自己的规则，以道德或气候为由筛选新的市场或行业进行投资。
综上所述，当你拥有全球约1.5%的股票，没有债务，并且仅占世界人口的0.07%时，1万亿美元确实能让你拥有一定的权威和权力。
从过去（或正在发生的）错误中吸取教训，规划新的道路永远不会太晚。那么，加拿大应该从挪威吸取哪些教训呢？
繁荣与萧条综合症的良方
在我们的体制下，我们在不同的政治意识形态之间摇摆不定，政党即使只获得40%的选民支持率也能占据多数席位。执政党会竭尽所能，但在缺乏长期战略规划的情况下，这很少能取得令人瞩目的成果。
阿尔伯塔省曾计划投资其石油和天然气特许权使用费，但后来被无需缴纳销售税的诱惑所困扰——短期收益换来长期破产。
我们需要妥善管理我们的自然资源，并认识到其中一些资源，例如石油，是一次性资产。
我们的产业政策需要更长远，这样我们才能避免加拿大各行各业经常经历的“繁荣与萧条综合症”。您明白我的意思——这些周期会导致社区建立在投机之上，房价飞涨，消费者过度信贷。
然后，由于缺乏长期规划，整个“纸牌屋”倒塌……并波及当地房地产市场。
如果您想讨论此问题或任何与您的房产相关的估值主题，请通过 jclark@regionalgroup.com 与我联系。我也是……
Yes, I'm ranting about Norway's sovereign wealth fund again
https://renx.ca/rant-norway-sovereign-wealth-fund-canada
It must be tough, trying to figure out what to do with US$1 trillion in a responsible and forward...
It must be tough, trying to figure out what to do with US$1 trillion in a responsible and forward-thinking fashion.
We in Canada, of course, do not have this problem. Unlike a certain other Arctic nation, Canada failed long ago to take advantage of our wealth of natural resources and energy reserves to build a nest egg all Canadians could enjoy today.
That honour goes to Norway. A country that’s a fraction the size of Canada by almost any measure – in size, in population, in Tim Hortons outlets.
Way back in April 2014, I wrote about how Compared to Norway, Canada is frittering away its wealth.
As I recounted in that article, the story goes that it all began in the late ’60s with an Iraqi geologist who brought his family to Norway in search of the best cerebral palsy treatment for his son. The geologist’s work led to the discovery of oil reserves that are expected to last until 2050.
A long-term view of wealth
The Norwegian government of the time was fully aware that oil reserves are not infinite. So, it implemented planning policies to manage the resource in a way that would create long-term wealth for the country and cushion it against the cyclical volatility of global commodities markets.
This interventionist approach is in sharp contrast to Canada’s free-market approach, which leaves the fickle fates of supply, demand and private-sector stakeholder interests in charge.
Norway protected its interests through a national oil company, StatOil, an independent industry regulator, and a provision that StatOil would have no less than a 50 per cent share in all future discoveries with foreign oil companies.
However, it’s what came next that’s important. In 1990, Norway set up a national oil fund.
Only four per cent of that fund is used for general government revenue, and then, only to fund important initiatives for infrastructure, education and research. The rest has been invested and reinvested.
Canada barely even tried to follow suit
At the national level, Canada has never undertaken such a bold and prudent initiative. Alberta attempted it, with its Heritage Savings Trust Fund established in 1976. As a result of management decisions I won’t bore you with here, it hasn’t amounted to much – about $17 billion in 2014, according to the last data available.
Why am I harping on this subject again now? Because of this story in the news recently, Here’s what lawmakers want to do with Norway’s $1 Trillion Fund.
The Bloomberg article reads:
“Key lawmakers gave a nod to a range of changes for Norway’s $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund – from divesting some of its oil stocks, to an overhaul of its fixed-income holdings and tighter restrictions on coal investments.”
Tight government control of the world’s largest wealth fund continues to rule the day, with ethical guidelines that include a ban on tobacco investment to climate and human rights criteria.
Norway’s Conservative government has set up a panel to review these, while the opposition Labour Party is pushing for its own rules to screen new markets or industries for investment on ethical or climate grounds.
All of which to say, when you own about 1.5 per cent of the planet’s stocks, have no debt, and account for only 0.07 per cent of the world’s population, US$1 trillion does allow you to put yourself into a position of some authority and power.
It’s never too late to learn from past (or ongoing) mistakes and plot a new course. So, what lessons should Canada take from Norway?
A cure for Boom-and-Bust Syndrome
In our system, we bounce between political ideologies and give political parties a majority position with as little as 40 per cent of the electorate’s support. The party in power then proceeds as best it can, which seldom yields impressive results in the absence of a long-term strategic plan.
Alberta had a plan to invest its oil and gas royalties, then got sidelined by the lure of not needing a sales tax – short-term gain for long-term bankruptcy.
We need to be good financial stewards of our natural resources, and recognize that some of them, like oil, are once-only assets.
Our industrial policies need to be longer term so we can avoid the Boom-and-Bust Syndrome different industries in Canada too often experience. You know what I mean – those cycles that see communities get built up on speculation, housing prices skyrocket and consumers overextend themselves on credit.
Then the whole house of cards falls for lack of a long-term plan . . . and takes the local real estate market with it.
To discuss this or any valuation topic in the context of your property, please contact me at jclark@regionalgroup.com. I am also interested in your feedback and suggestions for future articles.
John Clark AACI | Vice President, The Regional Group of Companies Inc.
