约翰·米尔斯海默 中国在避免与美国发生冲突

约翰·米尔斯海默 中国在避免与美国发生冲突

约翰·米尔斯海默曝光：他的中国叙事发生惊人转变！
John Mearsheimer EXPOSED: Shocking Shift in His China Narrative!

Mark Legend Gangmei  2025 年 1 月 3 日

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JK0oehQVWRo

约翰·米尔斯海默似乎正在改变他的叙述，表示希望他的预测是错误的。这是因为中国在战略上避免与美国发生它似乎想要的冲突。也许他已经开始意识到美国遏制中国的崛起已经太晚了。

约翰·米尔斯海默观点的一个重大缺陷是他假设所有国家都会像美国一样行事。仅从这个角度看待世界或地缘政治是危险的。约翰·米尔斯海默所概述的进攻性现实主义是一种国际关系理论，它认为大国天生就被驱使在国际体系中寻求主导地位以确保其生存。根据这种观点，各国采取积极行动，以最大限度地提高其权力和安全，而无政府状态的世界不存在中央权威来执行规则。这种方法是危险的，因为它假设冲突是不可避免的，促进了国家之间的零和竞争和不信任。在一个拥有核武器的世界里，这种行为增加了灾难性战争的风险，因为各国在追求霸权的过程中可能会误判或加剧冲突。

约翰·米尔斯海默表示，他不认为中国人是坏人，也不认为美国人是好人，他的观点反映了国际政治的运作方式。然而，他巧妙地将中国和美国等同起来以支持他的论述，声称中国将不可避免地模仿美国的行为。然而，这种比较是不够的。与美国不同，中国缺乏帝国主义野心，也不是一个无情的霸权国家。从历史和文化上看，两国之间存在着深刻的差异。多年来，米尔斯海默的演讲已经明确了谁是侵略者。正如杰弗里·萨克斯恰如其分地指出的那样，没有人比米尔斯海默更好地解释了美国。相比之下，中国倡导合作与人类共同未来——这清楚地提醒我们，中国40多年来没有轰炸过其他国家。

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你们真正应该希望的是中国不要继续发展 约翰·米尔·希默似乎在改变他的叙述方式，表示希望他的预测是错误的 其中一个原因是中国在战略上避免与美国发生它似乎想要的冲突 当习近平主席告诉乌尔苏拉·VLAN，美国故意挑衅和施压中国，迫使其在台湾问题上发生冲突时，这一点变得显而易见 如果我们有良好的关系，换句话说，如果中国能够和平崛起，那将证明我错了 换句话说，我的理论是错误的，让我们希望我错了 呃，我有一个简单的理论关于世界是如何运作的，我相信这个理论有很多解释力 约翰·米尔概述的进攻性现实主义是一种国际关系理论，它认为大国天生就被驱使在国际体系中寻求主导地位，以确保其生存 根据这种观点，各国采取积极行动，以最大限度地发挥其权力和安全，在一个没有中央权力机构来执行规则的无政府世界中，这种方法是危险的，因为它假设冲突是不可避免的，促进零点竞争以及核武世界中国家之间的不信任，这种行为增加了灾难性战争的风险，因为各国在追求霸权的过程中可能会误判或升级冲突，约翰·米尔·希默似乎改变其叙述的另一个原因是，美国目前正在与乌克兰和中东进行激烈交战，而且这不会很快结束，美国主要对遏制中国感兴趣，我认为美国担心中国正在变得更加强大，而且它不是东亚的现状大国，美国人今天面临的问题是他们无法集中精力遏制中国，因为美国深深卷入了乌克兰战争，并且深深卷入了以色列在中东进行的各种战争，但尽管如此，美国致力于遏制中国，当然从中国的角度来看，这是不可接受的，我完全理解这一点中国的观点 中国希望变得越来越强大，但这不符合美国的利益，所以这是一场激烈的竞争，据我所知，这场竞争将持续数十年，甚至整个 21 世纪 我钦佩约翰·梅赫对乌克兰战争和加沙冲突的深刻分析 我也同意杰弗里·萨克斯的观点，没有人比米尔·希默更好地解释美国的行动和政策 约翰·梅赫是一位备受推崇的进攻性现实主义思想家，这一思想流派植根于 19 世纪的权力平衡理论，接受全面战争的可能性 这种观点与传统的美国大国观非常吻合 然而，现代世界
不再在这些条件下运作，坚持这种观点可能会让我们走向相互毁灭 约翰·梅赫观点的一个重大缺陷是他假设所有国家都会像美国一样行事 中国将试图模仿美国 注意约翰·梅赫如何巧妙地将中国和美国放在同一条船上以加强首先，正如我所说，我不认为问题的根源是中国人的行为，我不认为中国人是坏人，美国人是好人，我认为这就是国际政治的运作方式，虽然我是美国人，我支持美国人，但事实是，这是一个悲惨的情况，然而，约翰·米尔·希默曾多次声称，美国是一个无情的国家，美国不仅仅是遏制中国，我们在谈论一种反击战略，正如你们许多人所知，也许你们许多人不知道的那样，美国是一个无情的大国，你永远不要低估美国的无情，尽管我们用各种自由主义的言论来掩盖我们无情的行为，但我们是难缠的客户，中国人现在发现了这一点在 20 世纪 90 年代初，当我告诉中国人，如果你们继续发展经济，就会面临激烈的安全竞争，你们会惊讶于美国的残酷无情，他们根本不相信我，因为当时美国对他们很好，我说你们不明白的是，结构将会改变，当结构改变时，当我们从单极走向多极，而你们是一个纯粹的竞争对手时，我们会以与现在截然不同的方式看待你们，这正是正在发生的事情，看看这个，没有人解释过美国比约翰我更好，我想给你们讲一个关于美国的故事，你们大多数人都不知道，当然大多数美国人也不知道的故事，因为我们有一个关于高贵美国的理想主义故事，它与现实的美国几乎没有相似之处，我在这里要做的是试图说服你，自 1783 年以来，美国的外交政策一直按照我的理论行事，这就是我要尝试做的 1783 年，美国最初是
133 个沿着大西洋海岸分布的微不足道的殖民地，我们做了什么，我们穿越大陆到太平洋，我们屠杀了大量美洲原住民，我们偷走了他们的土地，我们在 19 世纪中叶与墨西哥开战，我们从墨西哥偷走了它现在是美国的西南部
我们于 1812 年入侵加拿大，其明确目的是使加拿大成为美国的一部分，对于那些不知道原因的人来说，多伦多不是加拿大的首都，渥太华是加拿大的首都 CU 他们希望我们回访此外，关于加勒比海，我们现在拥有所有加勒比海地区，如古巴和如果不是因为波多黎各与奴隶制问题密不可分，那么它将成为美国的州，而北方各州表示我们不会进入加勒比地区，因为那里有太多奴隶，那些是奴隶制州，我们不想再有奴隶制州，我们对征服有着强烈的欲望，当阿道夫·希特勒于 1941 年夏天进入苏联时，他有时会谈到模仿美国人及其征服和获得领土的能力，他非常钦佩我们，他试图效仿我们，他把这条粗俗的河流称为我的密西西比河，这就是美国被创造为一个扩张主义国家的方式，就像我们以前从未在地球上见过的那样，但这只是我们试图创造区域血腥的第一部分，第二件事是 1823 年的门罗主义，老总统詹姆斯·门罗告诉欧洲人，我们现在没有足够的力量将你们赶出去，但是终有一天，我们会把你们赶出西半球，一旦我们把你们赶出去，你们就不受欢迎了，这是我们的半球，我们统治它，任何遥远的大国都不允许进入我们的半球，正如他自己承认的那样，约翰·米尔·希默毫无歉意地支持美国，并推进了一个明确的议程，想想他是如何警告澳大利亚观众不要与中国进行贸易的，这意味着如果他们违抗我们的利益，他们可能会面临与菲德尔·卡斯特罗的古巴相同的孤立和后果，有些人说还有另一种选择，你可以和中国一起，对吧，你有一个选择，你可以和中国一起，而不是和美国一起，关于这一点，我要说两件事，第一，如果你和中国一起，你要明白你是我们的敌人，然后你决定成为美国的敌人，因为我们又在谈论一场激烈的安全竞争，你要么和我们在一起，要么和我们作对，如果你与中国进行着广泛的贸易往来，你与中国保持着友好关系，你正在这场安全竞争中破坏美国，从我们的角度来看，你正在喂养这头野兽，这不会让我们高兴，当我们不高兴时，你不会想低估我们的恶劣程度，对吧，只要问问菲德尔·卡斯特罗约翰·米尔·希默似乎正在改变他的叙述，表达希望他的预测是错误的，这很可能是因为现在美国阻止中国崛起已经太晚了，最终美国必须接受中国在世界上的地位，最后我再说一遍，约翰·米尔·希默是一位备受推崇的进攻性现实主义思想家，这一学派植根于19世纪的权力平衡理论，接受全面战争的可能性，这一观点与传统的美国大国观点非常吻合，然而现代世界不再在这些条件下运作，坚持这种观点有可能导致我们走向相互毁灭感谢您的观看，如果您发现这段视频很有见地，请不要忘记点赞、分享和订阅，以便更深入地了解地缘政治和全球权力转移。

2025年1月3日  
John Mearsheimer appears to be shifting his narrative, expressing hope that he is wrong in his predictions. This is because China is strategically avoiding giving the U.S. the conflict it seems to seek. And perhaps he has begun to recognize that it is too late for the U.S. to contain China's rise.

A significant flaw in John Mearsheimer's perspective is his assumption that all nations will act in the same way as the United States. And it is dangerous to view the world or the geopolitics at play from that lens alone. Offensive realism, as outlined by John Mearsheimer, is a theory in international relations that argues great powers are inherently driven to seek dominance in the international system to ensure their survival. According to this view, states act aggressively to maximize their power and security in an anarchic world where no central authority exists to enforce rules. This approach is dangerous because it assumes conflict is inevitable, promoting zero-sum competition and mistrust between nations. In a nuclear-armed world, such behavior increases the risk of catastrophic wars, as states may miscalculate or escalate conflicts in their pursuit of supremacy.

John Mearsheimer states that he doesn't view the Chinese as the bad guys or the Americans as the good guys, framing his perspective as a reflection of how international politics operates. However, he cleverly equates China and the U.S. to support his narrative, asserting that China will inevitably mimic America's behavior. Yet, this comparison falls short. Unlike the U.S., China lacks imperialistic ambitions and does not operate as a ruthless hegemon. Historically and culturally, the differences between the two nations are profound. Over the years, Mearsheimer’s lectures have made it clear who the aggressors are. As Jeffrey Sachs aptly remarked, no one explains the U.S. better than Mearsheimer. In contrast, China champions cooperation and a shared future for humanity—a stark reminder that China has not bombed another country in over 40 years.

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what you should all really hope for is that China does not continue to grow John Mir shimer appears to be shifting his narrative expressing hope that he is wrong in his predictions one of the reasons is because China is strategically avoiding giving the US the conflict it seems to seek this became evident when President Xi Jinping informed Ursula VLAN that the US is deliberately provoking and pressuring China into a confrontation over Taiwan what would prove me wrong is if we had good relations in other words if China could rise peacefully right in other words my theory was wrong let's hope
that I'm wrong uh I have a simple theory about how the world works and I believe that that theory has a lot of explanatory power offensive realism as outlined by John mimer is a theory in international relations that argues great powers are inherently driven to seek dominance in the International System to ensure their survival according to this view States act agressively to maximize their power and Security in an anarchic world where no
Central Authority exists to enforce rules this approach is dangerous because it assumes conflict is inevitable promoting zero some competition and
mistrust between nations in a nuclear
armed World such Behavior increases the
risk of catastrophic Wars as States May
miscalculate or escalate conflicts in
their pursuit of Supremacy the other reasons why John Mir shimer appears to be shifting his narrative is because the US is right now heavily engaging Ukraine and in the Middle East and it's not going to be over soon the United States is principally interested in containing China uh I think the United States fears the fact that China is becoming more powerful uh and that it is not a status
quo power in East Asia the problem that
the Americans face today is that they
can't concentrate on containing China
because the United States is deeply
involved in the Ukraine war and it's
deeply involved in the various Wars that
Israel is fighting in the Middle East
but nevertheless uh the United States is
committed uh to containing China and of
course from a Chinese point of view this is unacceptable uh and I fully understand that from China's point of view China wants to grow more and more powerful but again this is not in the American interest so it is a fierce competition and as best I can tell this is a competition that will last for many decades if not the rest of the 21st century I admire John meher's insightful analysis of both the Ukraine war and the Gaza conflict I also agree with Jeffrey saxs that no one explains us actions and policies better than Mir shimer John mimer is a highly regarded thinker in offensive realism a school of thought
rooted in 19th century balance of power
theory that accepts the possibility of
Total War this perspective aligns
closely with the traditional us great
power Outlook however the modern world
no longer operates under these conditions and clinging to such views risks driving us toward Mutual destruction a significant flaw in John meher's perspective is his assumption that all nations will act in the same way as the United States China is going to try and imitate
the United States notice how John mimer
cleverly places both China and the US in
the same boat to reinforce his narrative
and validate his perspective first of all as I said I don't think the root of the problem problem is Chinese Behavior
it's I don't think the Chinese are the
bad guys uh and the Americans are the
good guys I think this is just how
International politics works and
although I'm an American and I'm rooting
for the Americans the fact is that uh
this is a case of a tragic situation
however John Mir shimer has made several
claims that the United States of America
is a ruthless hij the United States is
it's not simply containing China we're
talking about a roll back strategy the
United States as many of you know and
probably many of you don't know is a
ruthless great power you never want to
underestimate how ruthless the United
States is despite all the liberal rhetoric that we use to cover up our ruthless Behavior we are tough customers
and the Chinese are finding that that
finding that out now in the early 1990s
when I told the Chinese if you continue
to grow economically there's going to be
a fierce security competition and you're
going to be shocked at how ruthless the
United States is they simply didn't
believe me because the United States was
treating them very well at the time I
said what you don't understand is that
the structure is going to change and
when the structure changes when we go
from unipolarity to multipolarity and
you're a pure competitor we're going to
think about you very differently than we
think about you now and that's exactly
what's happening check this out no one
explained the United States of America am better than John me shimer and I want to tell you a story about the United States of America that most of you don't know certainly most Americans don't know this story because we have this idealistic story about Noble America that bears little resemblance to reality the United States and what I'm going to do here is try and convince you that the United States since 1783 in terms of foreign policy has acted according to my theory that's what I'm going to try and do 1783 the United States started out as
133 measly colonies strung out along the Atlantic Seaboard what did we do we marched across the continent to the Pacific Ocean we murdered huge numbers of Native Americans we stole their land we went to war with Mexico in the middle of the 19th century and we stole from Mexico it is now the southwest of the
United States we invaded Canada in 1812 for the express purpose of making Canada part of the United States for those of you who don't know the reason Toronto is
not the capital of Canada and Ottawa is the capital of Canada CU they expected us to pay a return visit Furthermore with regard to the Caribbean we'd own all the Caribbean now places like Cuba and Puerto Rico would
be American states if it weren't for the fact that it was inextricably tied up with the issue of slavery and the northern states said we're not going into the Caribbean
because there are too many slaves down there those are slaveholding states and we don't want any more slaveholding States we had a vicious appetite for
Conquest Adolf Hitler when he went into the Soviet Union in the summer of 1941 sometimes talked about imitating
the Americans and their ability to conquer and gain territory he admired us greatly he was trying to emulate us he referred to the vulgar the vulgar River
as my Mississippi that's how the United States
was created an expansionist country like
we've never seen on the planet before
but that's just the first part of our
attempt to create Regional hemony second
thing we did was the Monroe Doctrine in
1823 old President James Monroe he told
the Europeans we're not powerful enough
to throw you out now but there's going
to come a day when we're going to run
you out of the Western Hemisphere and
once we run you out you're not welcome
back this is our hemisphere we run it no
distant great powers are allowed in our
hemisphere as he himself admitted John
Mir shimer is unapologetically rooting
for America and advancing a clear agenda
consider how he warned the Australian
audience against trading with China
implying they could face the same isolation and consequences as Fidel Castro's Cuba if they defied us interests some people say there's an alternative you can go with China right you have a choice here you can go with
China rather than United States there's
two things I'll say about that number
one if you go with China you want to
understand you are our enemy you are
then deciding to become an enemy of the
United States because we're again we're
talking about an intense security
competition you're either with us or
against us and if you're trading
extensively with China and you're
friendly with China you're undermining the United
States in this security competition
you're feeding the beast from our
perspective and that is not going to
make us happy and when we are not happy
you do not want to underestimate how
nasty we can be right just ask Fidel
Castro John Mir shimer appears to be
shifting his narrative expressing hope
that he is wrong in his predictions this
is most likely because it is too late
for the us to stop China's rise at the
end the US has to accept China's place
in the world lastly I repeat John Mir
shimer is a highly regarded thinker in
offensive realism a school of thought
rooted in 19th century balance of power
theory that accepts the possibility of
Total War this perspective aligns
closely with the traditional us great
power Outlook however the modern world
no longer operates under these conditions and clinging to such views risks driving us toward Mutual destruction thank you for watching if you found this video insightful don't forget to like share and subscribe for more deep Dives in the geopolitics and Global power shifts.