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国际政局中正在崛起'全球南方'是何方神圣?

(2023-07-10 09:22:58) 下一个

国际政局中正在崛起"全球南方"是何方神圣?

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非洲、亚洲和拉丁美洲的许多主要国家不愿意在乌克兰战争中与北约站在一起,这让“全球南方 ”(Global South,又称“南方国家”或“南方世界”)这个词再次成为焦点。

最近一篇新闻报道的标题如此发问:“为什么如此多的全球南方国家支持俄罗斯?”;另一篇报道标题则指:“乌克兰讨好『全球南方』来试图挑战俄罗斯”。

但是,这个词究竟是什么意思,为什么它最近几年开始流行?

作者为美国波士顿大学Frederick S. Pardee长远未来研究中心的暂代主任Jorge Heine

全球南方指的是世界上各种有时被描述为“发展中国家”、“欠发达”或“不发达”的国家。其中许多国家——儘管不是全部——位于南半球,主要在非洲、亚洲和拉丁美洲。

总的来说,它们较“全球北方”的国家——主要位于北美洲和欧洲,还有一些位于大洋洲和其他地区的富裕国家——更穷,收入不平等程度更高,人们的预期寿命更短,生活条件更恶劣。

超越“第三世界”

全球南方这个词似乎是在1969年由政治社运分子CarlOglesby首次使用。他在自由派天主教杂志《Commonweal》中写道,越南战争是全球北方“对全球南方统治”的历史终结。

但直到1991年,标志着所谓的“第二世界”结束的事件——苏联解体之后——这个词才开始流行。

图为2022年8月4日,肯尼亚民众在参加完一场集会后离开。(Getty)

在此之前,对发展中国家、或尚未完全工业化的国家更常见的表述是“第三世界”。

这个词是Alfred Sauvy在1952年创造的,比喻法国历史上的三大产业:贵族、神职人员和资产阶级。“第一世界”指的是先进的资本主意大利家;“第二世界”指的是以苏联为首的社会主意大利家;而“第三世界”指的是发展中国家,当时许多国家仍处于殖民主义的桎梏之下。

社会学家Peter Worsley1964年出版的《第三世界:国际事务中一股重要的新势力》一书进一步普及了这个词。该书还指出,三年前成立的“第三世界”是不结盟运动的骨干力量,是对两极化之下冷战的反击。

儘管Worsley对这个“第三世界”的看法是积极的,但这个词却与受贫穷、肮髒和不稳定困扰的国家联繫在一起。“第三世界”成为由锡伯族独裁者统治的香蕉共和国(贫穷且政府统治无道的中南美洲小国)的同义词,并经过西方媒体得以传播。

苏联的解体以及所谓的第二世界的结束,为 “第三世界 ”一词的消失创造了便利的藉口。这个词的使用在1990年代迅速下降。

同时,“发达”、“发展中”或“欠发达”(的表述)也遭到批评,因为它们把西方国家作为理想,而把这个联盟以外的国家描绘成落后的。

越来越多的人使用“全球南方”这一听起来比较中性的词彙来取代它们。

地缘政治,而非地理

“全球南方”一词并与地理范畴无关。事实上,全球南方的两个最大的国家——中国和印度——完全位于北半球。

相反,它的用法是指国家之间的政治、地缘政治和经济共性的混合。

图为2021年10月19日在斯里兰卡的科伦坡港口。(Getty)

全球南方的国家大多为曾受到帝国主义和殖民统治的国家,非洲国家也许是其中最明显的例子。这种历史使这些国家与其他国家的关係发生变化,不再是过去主张依赖理论的学者所描述的世界政治经济中心和边缘的关係——或者简单理解为“西方和其他国家”之间的关係。

鑑于过去全球南方的许多国家与全球北方之间的不平衡关係——无论是在帝国时代还是在冷战时期——今天许多国家选择不与任何一个大国结盟,这并不奇怪。

虽然“第三世界”和“不发达”这两个词呈现着经济上的弱势形象,但这并非“全球南方”的真实情况。

自21世纪以来,世界银行所指出的一种在北大西洋与亚太地区之间“财富转移”,已经颠覆了对于全球富人所在地区的许多传统认知。

预计到2030年,四个最大的经济体中(依次为中国、印度、美国和印尼)有三个将来自全球南方。以全球南方国家为主的金砖国家(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非)的GDP购买力已经超过了全球北方的七国集团(G7)。现在,北京的亿万富翁比纽约市的还要多。

行进中的全球南方

这种经济转变与政治能见度的增大是相辅相成的。全球南方国家正越来越多地在全球舞台上坚定的展示自己——无论是促成伊朗和沙特阿拉伯和解的中国,还是试图推动一项和平计划以结束乌克兰战争的巴西。

在这种经济和政治力量的转变之下,地缘政治学专家如Parag Khanna和KishoreMahbubani开始宣告“亚洲世纪”的到来。政治学家Oliver Stuenkel等其他人则已经开始谈论一个“后西方世界”。

有一点是肯定的:全球南方正在发挥“发展中国家”和“第三世界”过去从未有过的政治和经济力量。

 

The 'Global South' is emerging in the wake of the Russia/Ukraine war. Here's how it took the place of 'Third World' in the language of economics

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend the BRICS Summit in Brasilia
South African President Matamela Cyril Ramaphosa, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping enters the hall during the BRICS Summit in Brasilia, Brazil, November 14, 2019. Leaders of Russia, China, Brazil, India and South Africa have gateheres in Brasila for the BRICS Leaders Summit.
MIKHAIL SVETLOV/GETTY IMAGES

The unwillingness of many leading countries in AfricaAsia and Latin America to stand with NATO over the war in Ukraine has brought to the fore once again the term “Global South.”

“Why does so much of the Global South support Russia?” inquired one recent headline; “Ukraine courts ‘Global South’ in push to challenge Russia,” declared another.

But what is meant by that term, and why has it gained currency in recent years?

The Global South refers to various countries around the world that are sometimes described as “developing,” “less developed” or “underdeveloped.” Many of these countries – although by no means all – are in the Southern Hemisphere, largely in Africa, Asia and Latin America.

In general, they are poorer, have higher levels of income inequality and suffer lower life expectancy and harsher living conditions than countries in the “Global North” — that is, richer nations that are located mostly in North America and Europe, with some additions in Oceania and elsewhere.

Going beyond the 'Third World'

The term Global South appears to have been first used in 1969 by political activist Carl Oglesby. Writing in the liberal Catholic magazine Commonweal, Oglesby argued that the war in Vietnam was the culmination of a history of northern “dominance over the global south.”

But it was only after the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union – which marked the end of the so-called “Second World” – that the term gained momentum.

Until then, the more common term for developing nations – countries that had yet to industrialize fully – was “Third World.”

That term was coined by Alfred Sauvy in 1952, in an analogy with France’s historical three estates: the nobility, the clergy and the bourgeoisie. The term “First World” referred to the advanced capitalist nations; the “Second World,” to the socialist nations led by the Soviet Union; and the “Third World,” to developing nations, many at the time still under the colonial yoke.

Sociologist Peter Worsley’s 1964 book, “The Third World: A Vital New Force in International Affairs,” further popularized the term. The book also made note of the “Third World” forming the backbone of the Non-Aligned Movement, which had been founded just three years earlier as a riposte to bipolar Cold War alignment.

Though Worsley’s view of this “Third World” was positive, the term became associated with countries plagued by poverty, squalor and instability. “Third World” became a synonym for banana republics ruled by tinpot dictators – a caricature spread by Western media.

The fall of the Soviet Union – and with it the end of the so-called Second World – gave a convenient pretext for the term “Third World” to disappear, too. Usage of the term fell rapidly in the 1990s.

Meanwhile “developed,” “developing” and “underdeveloped” also faced criticism for holding up Western countries as the ideal, while portraying those outside that club as backwards.

Increasingly the term that was being used to replace them was the more neutral-sounding “Global South.”

Geopolitical, not geographical

The term “Global South” is not geographical. In fact, the Global South’s two largest countries – China and India – lie entirely in the Northern Hemisphere.

Rather, its usage denotes a mix of political, geopolitical and economic commonalities between nations.

Countries in the Global South were mostly at the receiving end of imperialism and colonial rule, with African countries as perhaps the most visible example of this. It gives them a very different outlook on what dependency theorists have described as the relationship between the center and periphery in the world political economy – or, to put it in simple terms, the relationship between “the West and the rest.”

Given the imbalanced past relationship between many of the countries of the Global South and the Global North – both during the age of empire and the Cold War – it is little wonder that today many opt not to be aligned with any one great power.

And whereas the terms “Third World” and “underdeveloped” convey images of economic powerlessness, that isn’t true of the “Global South.”

Since the turn of the 21st century, a “shift in wealth,” as the World Bank has referred to it, from the North Atlantic to Asia Pacific has upended much of the conventional wisdom on where the world’s riches are being generated.

By 2030 it is projected that three of the four largest economies will be from the Global South – with the order being China, India, the United States and Indonesia. Already the GDP in terms of purchasing power of the the Global South-dominated BRICS nations – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – surpasses that of the Global North’s G7 club. And there are now more billionaires in Beijing than in New York City.

Global South on the march

This economic shift has gone hand in hand with enhanced political visibility. Countries in the Global South are increasingly asserting themselves on the global scene – be it China’s brokering of Iran and Saudi Arabia’s rapprochement or Brazil’s attempt to push a peace plan to end the war in Ukraine.

This shift in economic and political power has led experts in geopolitics like Parag Khanna and Kishore Mahbubani to write about the coming of an “Asian Century.” Others, like political scientist Oliver Stuenkel, have began talking about a “post-Western world.”

One thing is for sure: The Global South is flexing political and economic muscles that the “developing countries” and the “Third World” never had.

Jorge Heine is Interim Director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, Boston University.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida;

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terça-feira, 4 de julho de 2023

The 'Global South' is emerging in the wake of the Russia/Ukraine war - Jorge Heine (The Conversation)

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