John Bogle: Economics + Emotions => Market Returns

读完了John Bogle 在 June 26， 2002 在 Morninstar 的演讲。

主题就是：RTM （reversion to the mean).  意思是说，所有的投资策略，最后都会回归到“市场均值”。

所以不要白费力气了！就投资在INDEX 或者 TOTAL MARKET INDEX。

摘一些警句：

1.  Economics (booms/busts) + emotions (greed/fear)  =shapes=> market returns

2.  Economics is reflected in investment return (earnings and dividends), emotions are reflected in the speculative return (the impact of changing price-to-earnings ratios). During the past century, the real (i.e. inflation-adjusted) investment return was 6.5%, accounting for the lion's share of the market's 6.6% real return, with speculative returns contributing just 0.1%. Clearly, the cumulative investment return is the piper that plays the tune, with earnings and dividends climbing year after year—sometimes faster, sometimes slower, sometimes even falling. While stock market returns dance assiduously to the investment tune, but periodically move above or below, seemingly independently. But the iron law of investing is apparent: In the short run, speculative return drives the market. In the long run, investment return is all that matters.

文章最后的advice：

It occurs to me that the best advice I can leave you with today came in my first book, written ten years ago. It was a Caveat Emptor entitled, "This Too Shall Pass Away," the advice given to an Eastern monarch that would be "true and appropriate in all times and situations." I described it as wise advice for investors in the financial markets, who "feel richer when the market rises and poorer when it declines . . . although the underlying value of the business enterprises that comprise the market may have changed not a whit." I cautioned investors not to give way to a bull market atmosphere and become infected with the enthusiasm and greed of the great public, any more than you should give way to a bear market atmosphere and become infected with the negativism and fear displayed by the great public. Your success in investing, I wrote, "will depend on your ability to realize, at the heights of ebullience and the depths of despair alike that 'This too shall pass away.'"