危机远远没过

看来，我对股市和经济的＂悲观＂看法是不够＂悲观＂。 等到这经济的delay effect出来时，人们就会看到，这２００９年８－９％的unemployment rate预测会是太乐观了。

看到很多人在抄底买破产房，都说这是once in a life time的机会。可能吧？ 但，看这样下去，房市再掉是不可免的。到时，搞不好下一轮大破产房又出来，这once in a life time就变了twice in a life time。

这次，要是真的演变成一个全球大萧条的话，到时，人们的话题就是怎么生活下去，不是怎么投资了。

I believe that, before this is all over, more European countries will go into bankrupcy. When this is all over, Euro's value will be greatly reduced.

我维持我在＂The Bears Final Target＂ 的看法。

However, I do feel that, we are reaching a short term capitulation point which would trigger a months long bear counter rally. Any such bear rally should be treated as selling opportunity. It takes time for a Bear to finish its job and I do not believe the market will free fall to a point that, there is no return. It simply does not work that way. By the way, I will be a heavy buyer when the Dow goes to 7200 level. If indeed the panic is so severe, the following rally will be very profitable.

For the last 20 years, the US economy growth was fueled by the ever heavier debt carrying. Now, the country is counting on more debt to bail out this financial crisis. It literally is bailing out the banking industry which, ironically, is the devil of this crisis. The question now is, how much longer can the US survive under heavy debts? Will there be a day that, the heavy debt triggers the collapse of the US $, and thus the US monetary system? Who knows? Anything can happen.



Interesting enough, the history of the US is a debtor's history. Unfortunately, people lived through 1980s to now are those who carried the most debt in the US history. They have seen the glory and now, it's time to pay back. Sadly enough, we are one of them.