生活其实很简单
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１。 空的要小心。 DT除外。Market internal 不weak。
２。 Obama 的心已在下一届连任。做法是，大喊：天啊，我真遭罪，美国要跨啦。反正，有多惨，喊多惨。不喊白不喊。不这样，他能显他的能力吗？ 所以，这几个月，他越喊，股市越长。为啥，他是西方红啊！ 是老美的HOPE。
３。这西方红有一天变了西方黑时。 天真的就塌了。 那时不空，对不起你祖宗。
Regarding to RE, the next knife to fall is commercial real estate which will involve a huge amount of bad loans.
I expect NYC to fall hard starting this year. Talked to two of my broker friends last night, most of the deals were canceled right at the day the contract supposed to be signed either due to the loan not getting approved or the buyers backing off at the last moment.
Bear in mind, with the global economic situation worsen, the hot foreign money that flowed into NYC vicinity, LA and SF areas the last two years(which has helped to sustain the housing price in those areas greatly) will dry up. In Brooklyn and Queens areas, a lot of houses are bought with the injection of hot money from Chinese the last couple of years. Now, it's drying up big time. And even though the price is not falling hard yet, the sales has been down by more than 50% the last two months. We all know that, with the big drop in sales, the next to fall will be price. This is exactly what had happened in other area such as DC metropolitan and Bay Area.
So, the worst is yet to come.
２。 Obama 的心已在下一届连任。做法是，大喊：天啊，我真遭罪，美国要跨啦。反正，有多惨，喊多惨。不喊白不喊。不这样，他能显他的能力吗？ 所以，这几个月，他越喊，股市越长。为啥，他是西方红啊！ 是老美的HOPE。
３。这西方红有一天变了西方黑时。 天真的就塌了。 那时不空，对不起你祖宗。
Regarding to RE, the next knife to fall is commercial real estate which will involve a huge amount of bad loans.
I expect NYC to fall hard starting this year. Talked to two of my broker friends last night, most of the deals were canceled right at the day the contract supposed to be signed either due to the loan not getting approved or the buyers backing off at the last moment.
Bear in mind, with the global economic situation worsen, the hot foreign money that flowed into NYC vicinity, LA and SF areas the last two years(which has helped to sustain the housing price in those areas greatly) will dry up. In Brooklyn and Queens areas, a lot of houses are bought with the injection of hot money from Chinese the last couple of years. Now, it's drying up big time. And even though the price is not falling hard yet, the sales has been down by more than 50% the last two months. We all know that, with the big drop in sales, the next to fall will be price. This is exactly what had happened in other area such as DC metropolitan and Bay Area.
So, the worst is yet to come.
评论
drywall
2009-01-13 17:45:00
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悄悄话
I've been checking your blog every couple of days. Your opinion is very objective,sharp and helpful. Keep posting good stuff!
10x10year
2009-01-09 16:05:45
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悄悄话
Great post!
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