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熊市的特征和我的打法

(2008-07-03 05:05:00) 下一个
Every bear market contains many powerful up and down hank shakings. That's how retail investors losing their shirts.

A typical bear market midterm bottoming and rallying process has the following symptoms:
1. weaker sectors stop sliding.
2. strong sectors start to follow the slide.
3. extreme bearish sentiment.
4. bottoming process always has up and down shaking. 把熊心振歪,把牛们吓得尿裤.

看一下今天的盘, Financial 不大掉了, 强的 commodities sectors 大掉了. 牛们连站着撒尿的地方也没了. 而偏偏在这时, 厕所就要盖好了, 牛们舒服地撒尿的时后就要到了.

A typical bear market midterm topping process has the following symptoms:
1. all sectors, regardless strong or weak, keep moving higher and higher every day and disconnected from the FA
2. small and garbage stocks suddenly fly high like the sky has no limit.
3. indices kept penestrating resistances and 熊熊们要尿了. 牛牛们是每天高歌.

这时, 有脑的熊们发现, 主要的 200MA resistances 就是破不了. trendline 还是向下的. 于是, 这批熊的精英建空仓, 贴了"厕所跳水"贴,等着吃鱼.

我这两天先到熊窝睡睡, 找个熊厕所安稳的尿一尿. 时机到了, 再到牛棚浑.

熊市的打法是: 
1. short: 放心的摆着, 是大奶, 不用担心.
2. long:  小心的扛着, 跟二奶一样, 一不对, 就扔了. 
3. cash:  自己留着, 随身用公文袋带着, 牛棚和熊窝两边跑.

这就是我的打法.
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