狮山巡礼
投资杂谈
The bigger they come, the harder they falland Big Tech fell hard this past week.
There was no place to hide.Microsoft
fell 4%.Tesla dropped 5.3%.Broadcomslid 7.3%.NvidiaandOracleslumped 8.9% and 10%, respectively.Palantir Technologiestumbled 13%. All of them fell despite the absence of any news that might be considered bad.The result was as you might expect. While theDow Jones Industrial Average
was on track to decline 1.5% and theSP 500 was on track to fall 2.1%suffering their worst declines since Oct. 10theNasdaq Composite was set to drop 3.7%, its worst week since the one ended April 4,which included President Donald Trumps Liberation Day.It was ugly.The catalyst, if you believe the folks who always have to have a reason for the markets decline, was data from Challenger, Gray Christmas showing thatlayoffs spiked in October. With the October payrolls report, which should have been released Friday, delayed, it was one of the few data points traders had to act on.
Maybe it was an excuse to take profits. Maybe investors realized that Palantir stock was too expensive at 248 times 12-month forward earnings despite whatCEO Alex Karp describedas arguably the best results that any software company has ever deliveredit wasntand maybe the same went for other tech companies.
Enter the rest of the market. TheInvesco SP 500 Equal Weightexchange-traded fund dropped just 0.8% this past week, a sign that the typical stock fared far better than the indexs larger ones. That may simply be because the nontech stocks in the index have less to lose. The equal-weight version of the index has underperformed the cap-weighted one by 7.4 percentage points in 2025 and is cheaper: It trades at 16.7 times analysts aggregate expected earnings for the coming 12 months, 26% less than the SP 500s 22.6, a steeper discount than the 17% five-year average.Earnings growth isnt just for tech companies anymore, either. The aggregate analyst sales growth expectation for the equal-weighted SP 500 is 5% for 2026, according to FactSet, which should be enough to generate earnings growth of 11%, not far below the 13% for the standard index. With the economy still growing despite the government shutdownand odds suggesting the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates, especially in the face of weak jobs datait should be enough to keep pushing earnings higher.
Could financial stocks be the new tech? TheFinancial Select Sector SPDRETF was little changed this past week, suggesting economic worries are not at the forefront of the selling. It trades at just under 16 times earnings, a sizable discount to the overall market, while margins are expected to rise by 1.5 percentage points. There are multiple tailwinds: Banks can benefit from loan demand, more mergers and acquisitions, and higher trading revenue. Money managers can benefit from growth in assets under management. Insurers could benefit from mild job growth. They can all see higher margins as they replace some costs with artificial intelligence.
So let the tech selloff continue. Its time for everything else to shine for a while.
