狮山巡礼
投资杂谈
The Technology Select Sector SPDR ETFs valuation increased from 21 times to 28 times next years earnings estimates since late 2022.
Nvidias market value reached $4.5 trillion, while OpenAIs recent financing round valued it at $500 billion.
The Nasdaq 100 index trades at 28 times 2026 earnings estimates, compared with 47 times in February 2000.
The fun parts about blowing a bubble are seeing how big it can getand how long it takes to pop. The same appears to be true for investors witnessing tech stocksincreasingly stretchedvaluations, thanks to the artificial-intelligence revolution.
The market knows the AI bubble has to burst eventually, but the question is how much longer it can inflate before the chewing gum splatters on traders faces. Timing exactly when a bubble will burst, however, is never easy.
, theworlds most valuable company, now has a market value of $4.5 trillion. Meanwhile, Sam Altmans OpenAI recently raised a round of financing that values the ChatGPT creator at$500 billion, making it the worlds most valuable private company,topping Elon Musks SpaceX.
TheTechnology Select Sector SPDRexchange-traded fundwhich owns Nvidia,Microsoft,Apple,Broadcom
, andPalantir
as its top five holdingsnow trades about 28 times next years earnings estimates. Thats up from around 21 times back in late 2022, when OpenAIs ChatGPT had just come on the scene. The question for analysts and investors is whether these valuations are near a peak, or if there is still room to grow.
There is a growing this time is different camp on Wall Street. Tech bulls maintain that the AI enthusiasm of 2025 isnt like the internet bubble of those irrationally exuberant late 1990s.
There is a lot of merit to that argument. For one, Nvidia and the so-called hyperscalers spending big on AIcloud companies like Microsoft, Amazon.com, Meta Platforms, andAlphabethave strong earnings growth and lofty profit margins to support their pricey valuations. And as long as big tech companies continue to spend on AI, that could keep the stock markets bull run going a while longer.
Why is the AI story so pervasive? Its the sheer amount of money the hyperscalers have thrown at it, said Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY, in an interview withBarrons.Investment spending lifted second-quarter economic growth. We dont see that slowing.
Theres also the fact that stocks current rally has broadened out in recent months, which could keep the party going for both tech and the overall market. Small-cap stocks are taking part. Other sectors that have ties to AI, most notably utilities and certain real estate stocks, are getting a big boost too. And growing hopes for more interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are a big part of the latest market surge too, with industrials, financials, and consumer discretionary stocks getting a lift.
Evercore ISI chief equity and quantitative strategist Julian Emanuel said in a report Friday that the ongoing bull marketwhich has broadened beyond tech, unlike in 1999is central to his firms expectation that theSP 500
could hit 7,750 by the end of 2026. Thats 15% higher than current levels around 6,730.
And valuations, while not necessarily cheap, are actually much more reasonable now for big tech stocks than they were a quarter of a century ago. TheNasdaq 100index, which has the Magnificent Seven along with Broadcom,Netflix, Palantir,Advanced Micro Devices, and ASML as top weightings, is trading at 28 times 2026 earnings estimates, compared with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 47 back in February 2000.
Still, others worry that the giddiness about AI is too reminiscent of the late 1990s dot-com froth. In other words, weve seen this movie before, and it might not end well.
There is growing hesitation to meaningfully chase the AI trade, said Tom Essaye, author of The Sevens Report, wrote on Friday. The risk that we see the AI-narrative challenged in the weeks/months ahead is rising and has the potential to spark a meaningful profit-taking pullback in tech and the broader equity market.
Others are even more blunt about the possibility of the AI bubble suddenly popping.
It feels like the risk/reward of deploying capital into AI plays, especially at a time when other, less richly valued, and less crowded, markets also have the wind in their sails, is simply not attractive, said Louis-Vincent Gave, founding partner and CEO of Gavekal Research, in a report Friday. The odds of the AI bubble deflating in the coming quarters now seems high.
He added that the bigger uncertainty is the impact an AI face-plant would have on the broader markets.
But there is some good news on that front. International stocks in developed markets such as Germany, South Korea and Japanas well as emerging market bonds in Latin Americahave been solid performers, offering alternatives for investors to consider if they exit the AI trade. Investors are also putting money into gold, silver and other precious metals as the dollar has weakened.
Suddenly, there are other options in which to deploy capital, Gave said. So even if the AI bubble does burst, the rest of the market doesnt necessarily have to implode along with big tech.
Its also worth noting that bubbles can take a very long time to pop. Former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan gave his famousirrational exuberancespeech about stocks on Dec. 5, 1996. But theNasdaq Composite
didnt hit its dot-com peak until March 2000.
