建宁博客
地产、投资、生活、学习笔记及总结
正文
我以前曾经写过一篇介绍美国历史房价和房价指数的文章（文章链接），里面提到过，美国各个都市区（MSA）比较准确的房价指数，无论是FHFA房价指数，还是Freddie Mac 房价指数，数据最早只能追溯到1975年，其中Freddie Mac 都市区房价指数最为全面。这里结合Freddie Mac 都市区房价指数，简单介绍一下自1975年开始近半个世纪以来，美国发生的三次大的地产崩盘，它们分别是：
- 八十年代的石油危机
- 九十年代的东西海岸泡沫
- 次贷危机
房地产是有地域性的，并且各个地区的周期也不是完全相同的。
在这三次大的崩盘当中，最近一次的次贷危机是最惨烈的一次，尽管像德州等很少几个地区在次贷危机中房价所受影响不大，但总体上说次贷危机是接近全国性的。
而前两次崩盘则是局部性的，如果仅仅从名义房价指数（不计通胀）来看，甚至都看不出前两次崩盘的存在（下图中蓝线），主要是因为通货膨胀把它们给掩盖住了。当然也由于它们的局部性，对全国指数的整体影响也就没有次贷危机那么大。但如果过滤掉通货膨胀，前两次崩盘（下图中橙色线）还是非常明显的，甚至在有些地区，还是相当惨烈的：
这里按照发生的先后顺序简单介绍一下。
一．八十年代的石油危机
美国的经济从七十年代开始，就已经开始变差，二战的红利早已耗尽，又打了一场毫无意义耗费巨大的越南战争，到1971年美元正式跟黄金剥离，布雷顿森林体系的终结，美国经济开始了严重的滞胀期，就是高通胀率和高失业率并存。到七十年代末尽管经济有短暂的反弹，但从1978年到1983年又连续经历了两次经济衰退。
正可谓屋漏偏逢连夜雨，许多经济严重依赖于石油产业的地区，除了遭受经济衰退的打击外，又恰逢石油过剩和石油价格暴跌。本来早前1978~1979年发生的伊朗革命造成了短暂的石油短缺而使石油价格飙升，至1980年时曾一度飙升至$39.50/桶（相当于现在$132/桶），但随后价格开始暴跌，到1986年最低时竟跌到$10.4/桶（相当于现在$26/桶）。
多重危机沉重打击了石油重镇的经济和地产业，这些地区包括德州，俄克拉荷马州，路易斯安那州，阿拉斯加州等，其中石油之都休斯顿便是重灾区之一，据说当时是哀鸿满地，惨不忍睹。以下是此次崩盘中价格下跌最厉害的地区（Freddie Mac房价指数总共涵盖了382个都市区，没在名单之列的说明在此次危机中房价没有明显的下跌，毕竟这不是光荣榜，后面的表格也一样）：
| Metro | Percentage | Peak | Trough |
| Casper WY | -50 | 1982/01 | 1988/04 |
| Enid OK | -44 | 1982/09 | 1988/09 |
| Lafayette LA | -39 | 1982/06 | 1988/10 |
| Anchorage AK | -39 | 1984/09 | 1990/01 |
| Fairbanks AK | -38 | 1984/09 | 1990/01 |
| Midland TX | -35 | 1982/04 | 1987/12 |
| Grand Junction CO | -34 | 1982/11 | 1985/10 |
| Odessa TX | -34 | 1982/10 | 1989/12 |
| Austin-Round Rock TX | -28 | 1985/09 | 1989/12 |
| Oklahoma City OK | -28 | 1983/07 | 1988/09 |
| Abilene TX | -26 | 1982/10 | 1989/12 |
| Houma-Thibodaux LA | -25 | 1982/04 | 1988/11 |
| Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land TX | -24 | 1982/10 | 1987/12 |
| Niles-Benton Harbor MI | -22 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
| Bay City MI | -21 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
| Jackson MI | -21 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
| Waterloo-Cedar Falls IA | -21 | 1982/04 | 1988/01 |
| Brownsville-Harlingen TX | -20 | 1982/04 | 1989/01 |
| Detroit-Warren-Dearborn MI | -20 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
| Peoria IL | -20 | 1982/01 | 1986/01 |
| Saginaw MI | -20 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
| Flint MI | -19 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
| Grand Island NE | -19 | 1982/08 | 1987/08 |
| Monroe MI | -19 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
| Muskegon MI | -19 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
| Ann Arbor MI | -18 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
| Baton Rouge LA | -18 | 1983/11 | 1989/02 |
| Kalamazoo-Portage MI | -18 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
| Lansing-East Lansing MI | -18 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
| Tulsa OK | -18 | 1983/07 | 1988/09 |
| Victoria TX | -18 | 1982/10 | 1989/01 |
| Battle Creek MI | -17 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
| San Antonio-New Braunfels TX | -17 | 1986/05 | 1989/12 |
| Billings MT | -16 | 1983/10 | 1988/02 |
| Grand Rapids-Wyoming MI | -16 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
| Kennewick-Richland WA | -16 | 1982/02 | 1988/07 |
| McAllen-Edinburg-Mission TX | -16 | 1982/10 | 1989/01 |
| Midland MI | -16 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
| Beaumont-Port Arthur TX | -15 | 1982/10 | 1987/12 |
| Corpus Christi TX | -15 | 1982/10 | 1989/01 |
| Davenport-Moline-Rock Island IA-IL | -15 | 1983/08 | 1988/01 |
| Farmington NM | -15 | 1982/07 | 1988/12 |
| Beckley WV | -14 | 1983/11 | 1988/11 |
| Corvallis OR | -14 | 1983/01 | 1986/10 |
| Laredo TX | -14 | 1982/10 | 1987/12 |
| Amarillo TX | -13 | 1984/08 | 1989/12 |
| College Station-Bryan TX | -13 | 1984/08 | 1989/12 |
| Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington TX | -13 | 1986/05 | 1989/02 |
| Longview WA | -13 | 1982/01 | 1982/09 |
| New Orleans-Metairie LA | -13 | 1984/06 | 1989/03 |
| Shreveport-Bossier City LA | -13 | 1986/05 | 1989/02 |
| Tyler TX | -13 | 1986/05 | 1989/12 |
| Bend-Redmond OR | -12 | 1982/12 | 1984/08 |
| Lake Charles LA | -12 | 1982/05 | 1988/03 |
| Ocala FL | -12 | 1984/08 | 1986/01 |
| Coeur d'Alene ID | -11 | 1983/01 | 1987/11 |
| Eugene OR | -11 | 1982/11 | 1984/07 |
| Hammond LA | -11 | 1987/05 | 1989/02 |
| San Angelo TX | -11 | 1982/10 | 1989/02 |
| Atlantic City-Hammonton NJ | -10 | 1982/01 | 1983/04 |
| Bismarck ND | -10 | 1984/03 | 1988/03 |
| Charleston WV | -10 | 1983/11 | 1985/12 |
| Duluth MN-WI | -10 | 1982/02 | 1985/07 |
| Great Falls MT | -10 | 1986/02 | 1988/01 |
| Killeen-Temple TX | -10 | 1986/07 | 1989/12 |
| Lawton OK | -10 | 1986/05 | 1988/10 |
| Morgantown WV | -10 | 1982/01 | 1982/08 |
| Sebastian-Vero Beach FL | -10 | 1982/09 | 1986/01 |
| Spokane-Spokane Valley WA | -10 | 1982/03 | 1982/09 |
| Bellingham WA | -9 | 1982/04 | 1986/12 |
| Decatur IL | -9 | 1982/01 | 1982/12 |
| Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO | -9 | 1986/05 | 1989/03 |
| Monroe LA | -9 | 1985/06 | 1989/01 |
| Mount Vernon-Anacortes WA | -9 | 1982/03 | 1982/09 |
| Parkersburg-Vienna WV | -9 | 1982/01 | 1982/08 |
| Salt Lake City UT | -9 | 1987/03 | 1989/01 |
| Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA | -9 | 1982/03 | 1982/09 |
| Sherman-Denison TX | -9 | 1987/03 | 1989/12 |
| Walla Walla WA | -9 | 1982/03 | 1982/09 |
| Wichita Falls TX | -9 | 1986/05 | 1989/01 |
| Bremerton-Silverdale WA | -8 | 1982/03 | 1982/09 |
| Columbus IN | -8 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
| Danville IL | -8 | 1982/01 | 1982/12 |
| Greeley CO | -8 | 1986/05 | 1989/02 |
| Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin SC | -8 | 1982/01 | 1982/11 |
| Johnstown PA | -8 | 1982/01 | 1985/03 |
| Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise NV | -8 | 1982/08 | 1984/10 |
| Logan UT-ID | -8 | 1983/06 | 1987/09 |
| Longview TX | -8 | 1983/11 | 1989/01 |
| Olympia-Tumwater WA | -8 | 1982/03 | 1982/09 |
| Springfield IL | -8 | 1982/01 | 1982/12 |
| Wenatchee WA | -8 | 1982/03 | 1982/09 |
| Yakima WA | -8 | 1982/03 | 1982/09 |
| Dubuque IA | -7 | 1982/01 | 1985/04 |
| Fresno CA | -7 | 1982/04 | 1983/12 |
| Gainesville FL | -7 | 1982/09 | 1984/11 |
| Grand Forks ND-MN | -7 | 1982/01 | 1982/07 |
| Gulfport-Biloxi-Pascagoula MS | -7 | 1986/04 | 1989/03 |
| Huntington-Ashland WV-KY-OH | -7 | 1982/01 | 1982/08 |
| Madera CA | -7 | 1982/04 | 1984/01 |
| Medford OR | -7 | 1984/12 | 1986/03 |
| Memphis TN-MS-AR | -7 | 1983/08 | 1984/06 |
| Michigan City-La Porte IN | -7 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
| Missoula MT | -7 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
| Pocatello ID | -7 | 1986/06 | 1988/08 |
| Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro OR-WA | -7 | 1984/12 | 1986/03 |
| Redding CA | -7 | 1982/04 | 1984/01 |
| Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk CT | -6 | 1987/08 | 1989/12 |
| Cape Coral-Fort Myers FL | -6 | 1982/09 | 1983/12 |
| Cheyenne WY | -6 | 1987/02 | 1988/04 |
| Colorado Springs CO | -6 | 1987/03 | 1989/03 |
| Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson IN | -6 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
| Kokomo IN | -6 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
| Lafayette-West Lafayette IN | -6 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
| Lubbock TX | -6 | 1986/05 | 1989/01 |
| Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-W | -6 | 1985/03 | 1985/07 |
| Morristown TN | -6 | 1983/10 | 1984/07 |
| South Bend-Mishawaka IN-MI | -6 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
| Terre Haute IN | -6 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
| Texarkana TX-AR | -6 | 1983/10 | 1989/01 |
| Waco TX | -6 | 1987/03 | 1989/01 |
| Weirton-Steubenville WV-OH | -6 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
| Wheeling WV-OH | -6 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
| Alexandria LA | -5 | 1986/05 | 1989/12 |
| Bloomington IN | -5 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
| Canton-Massillon OH | -5 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
| Chico CA | -5 | 1982/05 | 1986/01 |
| El Paso TX | -5 | 1986/07 | 1987/12 |
| Hot Springs AR | -5 | 1986/04 | 1988/01 |
| Jackson MS | -5 | 1985/07 | 1989/03 |
| Jackson TN | -5 | 1983/11 | 1984/07 |
| Johnson City TN | -5 | 1983/10 | 1984/06 |
| Knoxville TN | -5 | 1983/10 | 1984/07 |
| Lebanon PA | -5 | 1982/01 | 1983/01 |
| Lima OH | -5 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
| Mansfield OH | -5 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach | -5 | 1982/09 | 1985/07 |
| Ocean City NJ | -5 | 1982/03 | 1983/03 |
| Ogden-Clearfield UT | -5 | 1986/06 | 1988/12 |
| Pine Bluff AR | -5 | 1987/05 | 1989/04 |
| Provo-Orem UT | -5 | 1983/06 | 1987/10 |
| Rochester MN | -5 | 1982/01 | 1982/09 |
| Winchester VA-WV | -5 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
| Akron OH | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
| Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford VA | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/05 |
| Cedar Rapids IA | -4 | 1982/05 | 1984/03 |
| Charlottesville VA | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/05 |
| Cleveland-Elyria OH | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
| Columbus OH | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
| Goldsboro NC | -4 | 1982/04 | 1982/08 |
| Harrisonburg VA | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/05 |
| Hinesville GA | -4 | 1984/09 | 1985/04 |
| Lynchburg VA | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/05 |
| Modesto CA | -4 | 1982/04 | 1983/12 |
| Muncie IN | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/10 |
| New Haven-Milford CT | -4 | 1988/06 | 1989/12 |
| Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale AZ | -4 | 1987/07 | 1989/12 |
| Port St. Lucie FL | -4 | 1982/09 | 1983/02 |
| Pueblo CO | -4 | 1987/03 | 1989/01 |
| Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade CA | -4 | 1982/05 | 1983/12 |
| Springfield OH | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
| Staunton-Waynesboro VA | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/05 |
| Toledo OH | -4 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
| Baltimore-Columbia-Towson MD | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/12 |
| Cincinnati OH-KY-IN | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
| Dayton OH | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
| Evansville IN-KY | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/09 |
| Fargo ND-MN | -3 | 1987/06 | 1989/01 |
| Hagerstown-Martinsburg MD-WV | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
| Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford CT | -3 | 1988/07 | 1989/12 |
| Lancaster PA | -3 | 1982/06 | 1983/01 |
| Mankato-North Mankato MN | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
| New York-Newark-Jersey City NY-NJ-PA | -3 | 1988/07 | 1989/12 |
| Richmond VA | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/05 |
| Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario CA | -3 | 1982/05 | 1983/12 |
| Roanoke VA | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/05 |
| Santa Cruz-Watsonville CA | -3 | 1982/04 | 1982/09 |
| St. Joseph MO-KS | -3 | 1983/08 | 1984/02 |
| The Villages FL | -3 | 1988/06 | 1989/12 |
| Vineland-Bridgeton NJ | -3 | 1982/05 | 1983/02 |
| Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News V | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/05 |
| Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA- | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
| Watertown-Fort Drum NY | -3 | 1988/08 | 1989/12 |
| Wichita KS | -3 | 1987/06 | 1988/02 |
| Youngstown-Warren-Boardman OH-PA | -3 | 1982/01 | 1982/06 |
德州在此次危机之后一直到现在，房价总体上再也没有出现过明显的下跌，在次贷危机中受影响也很小。
二．九十年代的东西海岸泡沫
美国独居屋市场在六十年代和七十年代这二十年的大部分时间里，各州和各都市区的房价波动趋势基本一致，实际价格增长缓慢。在七十年代之前，房价的增长速度与通货膨胀率差不多，地区差异相对较小。但到了七十年代，房价上涨速度明显快于通货膨胀率， 但除了加州从1976 年至 1980 年地产市场比较繁荣外，其它地区之间的差异仍然很小。
相比之下，八十年代和九十年代房屋的价格波动开始加剧，不同地区的价格开始出现较大差异。八十年代开始，美国东北部、加州、夏威夷、西雅图和华盛顿特区的房价都出现了急剧上涨，比如，洛杉矶的房价从1985~1989增长了100%，而波士顿的房价从1982~1989则差不多增长了150%。房价的急剧上涨吸引了大批的资金，至1988~1989年时，这些地区的独居屋市场已经出现严重过剩，泡沫最严重的加州和美国东北部地区（尤其是新英格兰地区）房价开始崩溃，房价大约在1995~1996年触底，其中洛杉矶为重灾区：
| Metro | Percentage | Peak | Trough |
| Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford CT | -26 | 1988/07 | 1996/02 |
| Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim CA | -26 | 1990/04 | 1996/02 |
| Manchester-Nashua NH | -26 | 1988/06 | 1994/02 |
| New Haven-Milford CT | -25 | 1988/06 | 1996/02 |
| Norwich-New London CT | -24 | 1989/04 | 1994/02 |
| Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario CA | -24 | 1990/08 | 1996/12 |
| San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande CA | -23 | 1990/07 | 1996/01 |
| Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura CA | -22 | 1989/11 | 1995/12 |
| Barnstable Town MA | -21 | 1988/05 | 1994/03 |
| Kingston NY | -21 | 1989/08 | 1996/04 |
| Pittsfield MA | -20 | 1990/01 | 1993/03 |
| Springfield MA | -19 | 1990/01 | 1995/02 |
| Binghamton NY | -18 | 1990/07 | 1996/12 |
| Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk CT | -18 | 1988/05 | 1994/02 |
| Modesto CA | -18 | 1990/08 | 1996/12 |
| Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade CA | -18 | 1990/10 | 1996/12 |
| Worcester MA-CT | -18 | 1988/11 | 1994/03 |
| Boston-Cambridge-Newton MA-NH | -17 | 1988/07 | 1993/03 |
| Lewiston-Auburn ME | -16 | 1989/11 | 1995/01 |
| Providence-Warwick RI-MA | -16 | 1989/12 | 1996/02 |
| San Diego-Carlsbad CA | -16 | 1990/08 | 1995/12 |
| Vallejo-Fairfield CA | -16 | 1990/09 | 1996/12 |
| Portland-South Portland ME | -15 | 1989/10 | 1995/01 |
| San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CA | -15 | 1989/12 | 1994/02 |
| Santa Maria-Santa Barbara CA | -15 | 1990/07 | 1996/01 |
| Stockton-Lodi CA | -15 | 1990/09 | 1996/12 |
| Urban Honolulu HI | -15 | 1991/11 | 1996/12 |
| Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina HI | -14 | 1991/12 | 1996/12 |
| San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward CA | -14 | 1990/07 | 1995/12 |
| The Villages FL | -14 | 1988/06 | 1993/02 |
| New York-Newark-Jersey City NY-NJ-PA | -13 | 1988/07 | 1994/03 |
| Trenton NJ | -13 | 1988/06 | 1996/02 |
| Bakersfield CA | -12 | 1992/02 | 1996/12 |
| East Stroudsburg PA | -12 | 1990/02 | 1996/01 |
| Ithaca NY | -12 | 1989/11 | 1996/04 |
| Utica-Rome NY | -12 | 1992/11 | 1996/04 |
| Merced CA | -11 | 1990/10 | 1996/12 |
| Santa Cruz-Watsonville CA | -11 | 1990/07 | 1995/12 |
| Yuba City CA | -11 | 1991/07 | 1996/12 |
| Albany-Schenectady-Troy NY | -10 | 1992/11 | 1996/12 |
| Napa CA | -10 | 1991/06 | 1996/12 |
| Santa Rosa CA | -10 | 1990/08 | 1996/01 |
| Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton PA-NJ | -9 | 1989/07 | 1996/01 |
| Syracuse NY | -9 | 1990/07 | 1996/04 |
| Atlantic City-Hammonton NJ | -8 | 1990/01 | 1996/02 |
| Kennewick-Richland WA | -8 | 1994/05 | 1996/01 |
| Killeen-Temple TX | -8 | 1988/06 | 1990/11 |
| New Orleans-Metairie LA | -8 | 1988/01 | 1991/02 |
| San Antonio-New Braunfels TX | -8 | 1988/01 | 1990/03 |
| Bangor ME | -7 | 1989/11 | 1995/02 |
| Fresno CA | -7 | 1992/09 | 1996/12 |
| Glens Falls NY | -7 | 1990/07 | 1996/04 |
| Lake Havasu City-Kingman AZ | -7 | 1991/11 | 1996/12 |
| Ocean City NJ | -7 | 1990/01 | 1996/02 |
| Redding CA | -7 | 1992/09 | 1996/12 |
| Watertown-Fort Drum NY | -7 | 1988/08 | 1991/04 |
| Alexandria LA | -6 | 1988/07 | 1991/02 |
| Salinas CA | -6 | 1990/08 | 1996/01 |
| Shreveport-Bossier City LA | -6 | 1988/01 | 1991/02 |
| Vineland-Bridgeton NJ | -6 | 1992/02 | 1994/02 |
| Chico CA | -5 | 1992/02 | 1996/01 |
| Hammond LA | -5 | 1988/01 | 1989/02 |
| Odessa TX | -5 | 1988/06 | 1990/03 |
| San Angelo TX | -5 | 1988/06 | 1990/11 |
| Sherman-Denison TX | -5 | 1988/06 | 1990/03 |
| Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA-MD-WV | -5 | 1990/06 | 1996/02 |
| Baton Rouge LA | -4 | 1988/01 | 1989/02 |
| College Station-Bryan TX | -4 | 1988/06 | 1990/11 |
| Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO | -4 | 1988/04 | 1989/03 |
| Elmira NY | -4 | 1994/07 | 1996/04 |
| Farmington NM | -4 | 1988/01 | 1988/12 |
| Homosassa Springs FL | -4 | 1993/06 | 1996/01 |
| Houma-Thibodaux LA | -4 | 1988/01 | 1988/11 |
| Lafayette LA | -4 | 1988/01 | 1988/10 |
| Madera CA | -4 | 1992/09 | 1996/12 |
| Monroe LA | -4 | 1988/01 | 1989/01 |
| Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington PA-NJ-DE-MD | -4 | 1990/02 | 1996/01 |
| Salt Lake City UT | -4 | 1988/01 | 1989/01 |
| Visalia-Porterville CA | -4 | 1994/07 | 1996/12 |
| Brownsville-Harlingen TX | -3 | 1988/03 | 1989/01 |
| Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls NY | -3 | 1994/07 | 1996/03 |
| Greeley CO | -3 | 1988/04 | 1989/02 |
| Laredo TX | -3 | 1994/10 | 1996/02 |
| Oklahoma City OK | -3 | 1988/01 | 1988/09 |
| Pine Bluff AR | -3 | 1990/09 | 1991/08 |
| Reading PA | -3 | 1994/07 | 1996/01 |
| Rochester NY | -3 | 1992/11 | 1996/03 |
| Texarkana TX-AR | -3 | 1988/06 | 1990/11 |
| Waco TX | -3 | 1988/06 | 1990/11 |
| Wichita Falls TX | -3 | 1988/06 | 1989/01 |
需要说明一点的是，尽管在1990~1991美国曾经出现过经济衰退，但经济衰退是在房价开始下跌以后才开始的，而不是以前，这也说明，房价的下跌不是经济衰退造成的，而主要是由房价上涨太快和房屋过剩造成的。
投坛大佬老朽兄的第一桶金，估计就是由于抓住这次机遇而赚取的。
三．次贷危机
次贷危机主要是由银行放贷过度引起的，用朽哥的话说就是银行无节操。这个很多人都经历过，想必已经很熟悉了，我也就不多啰嗦了，直接把整理的数据列出来：
| Metro | Percentage | Peak | Trough |
| Merced CA | -66 | 2006/04 | 2009/05 |
| Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise NV | -64 | 2006/06 | 2012/01 |
| Modesto CA | -62 | 2006/04 | 2012/01 |
| Stockton-Lodi CA | -62 | 2006/04 | 2012/01 |
| Vallejo-Fairfield CA | -60 | 2006/04 | 2012/01 |
| Cape Coral-Fort Myers FL | -58 | 2006/04 | 2011/02 |
| Madera CA | -58 | 2006/05 | 2012/01 |
| Reno NV | -58 | 2006/03 | 2012/02 |
| Port St. Lucie FL | -57 | 2006/04 | 2011/02 |
| Carson City NV | -56 | 2006/04 | 2012/02 |
| Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island FL | -56 | 2006/04 | 2011/02 |
| Salinas CA | -56 | 2006/04 | 2012/02 |
| Yuba City CA | -56 | 2005/09 | 2012/02 |
| Punta Gorda FL | -55 | 2005/11 | 2011/02 |
| Sebring FL | -55 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
| Bakersfield CA | -54 | 2006/06 | 2012/01 |
| Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach FL | -54 | 2006/04 | 2011/03 |
| North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton FL | -54 | 2006/03 | 2011/02 |
| Ocala FL | -54 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
| Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville FL | -54 | 2005/11 | 2011/02 |
| Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale AZ | -54 | 2006/05 | 2011/05 |
| Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario CA | -53 | 2006/05 | 2012/01 |
| Sebastian-Vero Beach FL | -53 | 2005/11 | 2012/01 |
| Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford FL | -52 | 2006/07 | 2011/02 |
| Sacramento--Roseville--Arden-Arcade CA | -52 | 2005/09 | 2012/01 |
| Fresno CA | -51 | 2006/05 | 2012/01 |
| Lakeland-Winter Haven FL | -51 | 2006/07 | 2011/02 |
| Bend-Redmond OR | -50 | 2006/07 | 2011/02 |
| El Centro CA | -50 | 2006/06 | 2012/01 |
| Homosassa Springs FL | -50 | 2006/04 | 2012/01 |
| Visalia-Porterville CA | -50 | 2006/05 | 2012/01 |
| Lake Havasu City-Kingman AZ | -49 | 2006/05 | 2011/05 |
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach FL | -49 | 2006/05 | 2011/02 |
| Prescott AZ | -48 | 2006/06 | 2011/06 |
| Santa Maria-Santa Barbara CA | -48 | 2005/09 | 2012/02 |
| Medford OR | -46 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
| Redding CA | -46 | 2006/05 | 2012/01 |
| Santa Rosa CA | -46 | 2005/09 | 2012/01 |
| Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater FL | -46 | 2006/04 | 2011/02 |
| Detroit-Warren-Dearborn MI | -45 | 2005/06 | 2011/02 |
| Flint MI | -45 | 2005/07 | 2011/02 |
| Hanford-Corcoran CA | -45 | 2006/05 | 2012/02 |
| Boise City ID | -44 | 2007/05 | 2011/03 |
| Napa CA | -44 | 2006/04 | 2012/01 |
| St. George UT | -44 | 2006/08 | 2011/03 |
| Panama City FL | -43 | 2005/11 | 2012/01 |
| Tucson AZ | -43 | 2006/06 | 2012/01 |
| Yuma AZ | -43 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
| Chico CA | -42 | 2006/04 | 2012/02 |
| Grants Pass OR | -42 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
| Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin FL | -41 | 2005/11 | 2011/02 |
| Hagerstown-Martinsburg MD-WV | -40 | 2006/06 | 2011/02 |
| Jacksonville FL | -40 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
| Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura CA | -40 | 2006/05 | 2012/02 |
| Winchester VA-WV | -40 | 2006/06 | 2011/02 |
| Flagstaff AZ | -39 | 2007/05 | 2012/01 |
| Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina HI | -39 | 2006/06 | 2011/11 |
| Monroe MI | -39 | 2005/07 | 2011/02 |
| San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward CA | -39 | 2006/05 | 2012/01 |
| Brunswick GA | -38 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
| East Stroudsburg PA | -38 | 2006/07 | 2013/01 |
| Jackson MI | -38 | 2005/08 | 2011/02 |
| Santa Cruz-Watsonville CA | -38 | 2006/04 | 2012/01 |
| Gainesville FL | -37 | 2007/04 | 2012/01 |
| Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim CA | -37 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
| San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles-Arroyo Grande CA | -37 | 2005/09 | 2012/01 |
| Daphne-Fairhope-Foley AL | -36 | 2006/08 | 2011/02 |
| Hilton Head Island-Bluffton-Beaufort SC | -36 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
| Lansing-East Lansing MI | -36 | 2005/07 | 2012/02 |
| Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell GA | -35 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
| Gainesville GA | -35 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
| Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach SC-NC | -35 | 2007/06 | 2013/01 |
| Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent FL | -35 | 2006/04 | 2011/02 |
| San Diego-Carlsbad CA | -35 | 2005/09 | 2012/01 |
| Chicago-Naperville-Elgin IL-IN-WI | -34 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
| Dalton GA | -34 | 2007/05 | 2012/01 |
| Grand Junction CO | -34 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
| Rockford IL | -34 | 2007/07 | 2013/01 |
| Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA | -34 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
| Ann Arbor MI | -33 | 2005/07 | 2012/01 |
| Coeur d'Alene ID | -33 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
| Longview WA | -33 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
| Mount Vernon-Anacortes WA | -33 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
| Tallahassee FL | -33 | 2007/04 | 2012/01 |
| Atlantic City-Hammonton NJ | -32 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
| Bremerton-Silverdale WA | -32 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
| Battle Creek MI | -31 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
| Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington MN-WI | -31 | 2006/06 | 2012/01 |
| Muskegon MI | -31 | 2005/07 | 2011/02 |
| Saginaw MI | -31 | 2005/06 | 2012/02 |
| Sierra Vista-Douglas AZ | -31 | 2007/05 | 2013/12 |
| Gulfport-Biloxi-Pascagoula MS | -30 | 2007/05 | 2012/02 |
| Providence-Warwick RI-MA | -30 | 2005/08 | 2012/02 |
| Provo-Orem UT | -30 | 2007/07 | 2011/03 |
| Racine WI | -30 | 2006/07 | 2013/01 |
| Salem OR | -30 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
| San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara CA | -30 | 2007/05 | 2009/04 |
| Savannah GA | -30 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
| Vineland-Bridgeton NJ | -30 | 2007/06 | 2013/02 |
| Wilmington NC | -30 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
| Dover DE | -29 | 2007/06 | 2012/03 |
| Olympia-Tumwater WA | -29 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro OR-WA | -29 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
| Salisbury MD-DE | -29 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
| Toledo OH | -29 | 2005/07 | 2012/02 |
| Eugene OR | -28 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
| Norwich-New London CT | -28 | 2006/07 | 2013/01 |
| USA | -28 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
| Worcester MA-CT | -28 | 2005/08 | 2012/02 |
| Albany OR | -27 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Bay City MI | -27 | 2005/07 | 2011/02 |
| Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk CT | -27 | 2006/06 | 2013/01 |
| Chambersburg-Waynesboro PA | -27 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
| Charleston-North Charleston SC | -27 | 2007/05 | 2012/02 |
| Gettysburg PA | -27 | 2007/07 | 2013/01 |
| Grand Rapids-Wyoming MI | -27 | 2005/07 | 2011/02 |
| Jacksonville NC | -27 | 2007/07 | 2013/12 |
| Janesville-Beloit WI | -27 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
| California-Lexington Park MD | -26 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
| Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers AR-MO | -26 | 2006/07 | 2011/03 |
| Hinesville GA | -26 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Macon GA | -26 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
| Manchester-Nashua NH | -26 | 2005/08 | 2012/02 |
| Mobile AL | -26 | 2007/07 | 2011/12 |
| Salt Lake City UT | -26 | 2007/07 | 2011/03 |
| Santa Fe NM | -26 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
| Trenton NJ | -26 | 2006/07 | 2012/03 |
| Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton PA-NJ | -25 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Athens-Clarke County GA | -25 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
| Baltimore-Columbia-Towson MD | -25 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
| Cleveland-Elyria OH | -25 | 2005/07 | 2012/02 |
| Kankakee IL | -25 | 2007/07 | 2013/01 |
| Kingston NY | -25 | 2006/07 | 2013/03 |
| Mansfield OH | -25 | 2006/06 | 2013/01 |
| New Haven-Milford CT | -25 | 2006/07 | 2013/01 |
| Richmond VA | -25 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
| Spokane-Spokane Valley WA | -25 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
| St. Cloud MN | -25 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
| Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News VA-NC | -25 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
| Washington-Arlington-Alexandria DC-VA-MD-WV | -25 | 2006/06 | 2009/02 |
| Columbus GA-AL | -24 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
| New Bern NC | -24 | 2007/06 | 2013/01 |
| New York-Newark-Jersey City NY-NJ-PA | -24 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
| The Villages FL | -24 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
| Wenatchee WA | -24 | 2007/08 | 2012/01 |
| Idaho Falls ID | -23 | 2007/08 | 2012/01 |
| Kokomo IN | -23 | 2005/08 | 2012/02 |
| Las Cruces NM | -23 | 2007/06 | 2013/01 |
| Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis WI | -23 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
| Ocean City NJ | -23 | 2006/06 | 2013/02 |
| Staunton-Waynesboro VA | -23 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
| Valdosta GA | -23 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| York-Hanover PA | -23 | 2007/07 | 2013/01 |
| Albany GA | -22 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Auburn-Opelika AL | -22 | 2007/06 | 2011/12 |
| Barnstable Town MA | -22 | 2005/07 | 2012/02 |
| Dayton OH | -22 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
| Elkhart-Goshen IN | -22 | 2007/06 | 2011/01 |
| Kalamazoo-Portage MI | -22 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
| Niles-Benton Harbor MI | -22 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Ogden-Clearfield UT | -22 | 2007/08 | 2012/01 |
| Rome GA | -22 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
| Sheboygan WI | -22 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| St. Louis MO-IL | -22 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
| Akron OH | -21 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
| Albuquerque NM | -21 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
| Boston-Cambridge-Newton MA-NH | -21 | 2005/07 | 2012/02 |
| Canton-Massillon OH | -21 | 2006/06 | 2011/02 |
| Charlottesville VA | -21 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
| Greeley CO | -21 | 2005/07 | 2011/02 |
| Augusta-Richmond County GA-SC | -20 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Bellingham WA | -20 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
| Hammond LA | -20 | 2007/05 | 2012/01 |
| Harrisonburg VA | -20 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
| Montgomery AL | -20 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
| Reading PA | -20 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Warner Robins GA | -20 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
| Asheville NC | -19 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Birmingham-Hoover AL | -19 | 2007/06 | 2011/12 |
| Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia NC-SC | -19 | 2007/07 | 2011/03 |
| Memphis TN-MS-AR | -19 | 2007/05 | 2012/01 |
| Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington PA-NJ-DE-MD | -19 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Cincinnati OH-KY-IN | -18 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
| Green Bay WI | -18 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
| Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford CT | -18 | 2006/07 | 2013/02 |
| Kansas City MO-KS | -18 | 2006/07 | 2012/01 |
| Lewiston-Auburn ME | -18 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
| Pueblo CO | -18 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
| Springfield MO | -18 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
| Sumter SC | -18 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
| Youngstown-Warren-Boardman OH-PA | -18 | 2006/06 | 2011/02 |
| Anniston-Oxford-Jacksonville AL | -17 | 2007/07 | 2011/12 |
| Colorado Springs CO | -17 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
| Duluth MN-WI | -17 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Lima OH | -17 | 2006/07 | 2013/01 |
| Michigan City-La Porte IN | -17 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
| Roanoke VA | -17 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
| Springfield MA | -17 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
| Springfield OH | -17 | 2006/06 | 2013/01 |
| Walla Walla WA | -17 | 2007/08 | 2012/02 |
| Columbia SC | -16 | 2007/06 | 2013/01 |
| Columbus OH | -16 | 2006/06 | 2011/02 |
| Danville IL | -16 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
| Farmington NM | -16 | 2007/08 | 2012/02 |
| Fond du Lac WI | -16 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Madison WI | -16 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
| Mankato-North Mankato MN | -16 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
| Morristown TN | -16 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Pittsfield MA | -16 | 2007/07 | 2013/01 |
| Pocatello ID | -16 | 2007/08 | 2012/01 |
| Rochester MN | -16 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
| South Bend-Mishawaka IN-MI | -16 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Wausau WI | -16 | 2007/07 | 2013/01 |
| Cumberland MD-WV | -15 | 2007/08 | 2013/12 |
| Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton NC | -15 | 2007/07 | 2011/03 |
| Lynchburg VA | -15 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
| Midland MI | -15 | 2006/07 | 2009/02 |
| Portland-South Portland ME | -15 | 2006/06 | 2012/02 |
| Rocky Mount NC | -15 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Corvallis OR | -14 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Dothan AL | -14 | 2007/07 | 2011/12 |
| Greensboro-High Point NC | -14 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Greenville NC | -14 | 2007/07 | 2013/01 |
| Jackson TN | -14 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Lancaster PA | -14 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Logan UT-ID | -14 | 2008/07 | 2012/01 |
| Missoula MT | -14 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
| Muncie IN | -14 | 2005/08 | 2012/02 |
| New Orleans-Metairie LA | -14 | 2007/04 | 2012/01 |
| Oshkosh-Neenah WI | -14 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Spartanburg SC | -14 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
| Winston-Salem NC | -14 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
| Appleton WI | -13 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
| Bangor ME | -13 | 2006/07 | 2012/02 |
| Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford VA | -13 | 2007/06 | 2012/01 |
| Champaign-Urbana IL | -13 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
| Cleveland TN | -13 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
| Des Moines-West Des Moines IA | -13 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
| Glens Falls NY | -13 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Hattiesburg MS | -13 | 2007/05 | 2012/01 |
| Lewiston ID-WA | -13 | 2007/08 | 2012/01 |
| Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin TN | -13 | 2007/07 | 2011/01 |
| Scranton--Wilkes-Barre--Hazleton PA | -13 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| St. Joseph MO-KS | -13 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
| Bloomington IL | -12 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
| Burlington NC | -12 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
| Decatur IL | -12 | 2007/07 | 2013/01 |
| Denver-Aurora-Lakewood CO | -12 | 2006/06 | 2011/02 |
| El Paso TX | -12 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
| Fayetteville NC | -12 | 2008/07 | 2013/12 |
| Florence SC | -12 | 2007/06 | 2012/02 |
| Harrisburg-Carlisle PA | -12 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Laredo TX | -12 | 2007/06 | 2011/01 |
| Peoria IL | -12 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
| Pine Bluff AR | -12 | 2007/08 | 2013/12 |
| Raleigh NC | -12 | 2008/06 | 2012/02 |
| Yakima WA | -12 | 2008/07 | 2012/01 |
| Cape Girardeau MO-IL | -11 | 2007/07 | 2011/01 |
| Chattanooga TN-GA | -11 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
| Eau Claire WI | -11 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Fort Wayne IN | -11 | 2007/06 | 2009/01 |
| Gadsden AL | -11 | 2008/07 | 2011/12 |
| Greenville-Anderson-Mauldin SC | -11 | 2008/07 | 2012/02 |
| Huntsville AL | -11 | 2008/08 | 2011/12 |
| Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson IN | -11 | 2007/07 | 2011/02 |
| Knoxville TN | -11 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Lawrence KS | -11 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Lebanon PA | -11 | 2008/07 | 2013/01 |
| McAllen-Edinburg-Mission TX | -11 | 2007/07 | 2011/01 |
| Terre Haute IN | -11 | 2006/08 | 2009/01 |
| Weirton-Steubenville WV-OH | -11 | 2006/07 | 2011/02 |
| Albany-Schenectady-Troy NY | -10 | 2007/08 | 2012/02 |
| Goldsboro NC | -10 | 2008/06 | 2011/02 |
| Hot Springs AR | -10 | 2007/08 | 2012/01 |
| Jackson MS | -10 | 2007/05 | 2010/12 |
| Lafayette-West Lafayette IN | -10 | 2006/07 | 2011/02 |
| Omaha-Council Bluffs NE-IA | -10 | 2006/07 | 2011/12 |
| Beaumont-Port Arthur TX | -9 | 2008/07 | 2012/01 |
| Binghamton NY | -9 | 2008/07 | 2012/02 |
| Decatur AL | -9 | 2007/08 | 2011/12 |
| Durham-Chapel Hill NC | -9 | 2008/07 | 2012/02 |
| Evansville IN-KY | -9 | 2007/07 | 2009/01 |
| Joplin MO | -9 | 2007/07 | 2011/01 |
| Louisville/Jefferson County KY-IN | -9 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
| Tuscaloosa AL | -9 | 2008/07 | 2011/02 |
| Wichita KS | -9 | 2007/08 | 2012/02 |
| Carbondale-Marion IL | -8 | 2007/07 | 2009/02 |
| Fort Collins CO | -8 | 2007/07 | 2009/01 |
| Lawton OK | -8 | 2007/08 | 2013/01 |
| Lincoln NE | -8 | 2006/07 | 2009/02 |
| Topeka KS | -8 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Baton Rouge LA | -7 | 2007/09 | 2012/01 |
| Brownsville-Harlingen TX | -7 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
| Fort Smith AR-OK | -7 | 2008/08 | 2012/01 |
| Johnson City TN | -7 | 2008/08 | 2011/01 |
| Killeen-Temple TX | -7 | 2007/07 | 2011/01 |
| Lexington-Fayette KY | -7 | 2007/07 | 2012/01 |
| Manhattan KS | -7 | 2007/07 | 2012/02 |
| Cedar Rapids IA | -6 | 2008/08 | 2012/01 |
| Fairbanks AK | -6 | 2007/08 | 2012/02 |
| Johnstown PA | -6 | 2010/06 | 2013/02 |
| Elizabethtown-Fort Knox KY | -5 | 2010/06 | 2013/02 |
| Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway AR | -5 | 2007/07 | 2011/01 |
四．结语
第一次崩盘发生在石油重镇， 而第二次崩盘主要发生在东西两海岸的加州和美国东北部，这两次崩盘的区域基本是不重叠的，也就是说尽管前面提到了三次崩盘，但大多地区至多会经历两次， 甚至只会经历一次，不太可能经历全部三次。
在写那篇房价指数文章之前，我还不知道Freddie Mac 房价指数的存在，所以以前用的都是FHFA房价指数。但FHFA房价指数大多都是从1991年Q1才开始的，如果比较一下加州vs德州，洛杉矶vs休斯顿从1991年Q1开始到现在的FHFA房价指数（房价增长率），会得到如下的对比：
- 加州 263 ： 德州 259
- 洛杉矶 237： 休斯顿 227
单看这个对比结果，很容易得出这样的结论：德州和加州，洛杉矶和休斯顿，它们的房价增值速度差不多。在过去的30年里，也的确如此。
但这种简单的对比是有欺骗性的，因为1991年，对于德州和休斯顿来说， 已经是柳暗花明，早已度过了最黑暗的时期，并且自此后，德州和休斯顿的房价基本上一直处在上升的趋势，即便次贷危机都没能阻止这种趋势。
而1991年，对加州和洛杉矶来说，还有两次过山车要坐，也就是说还要经历两次大的波动，当时恰好是第一次过山车之前的高峰之上，正在往下冲：
如果把时间段放长些，比较一下从1975年1月到2021年八月Freddie Mac 房价指数的数据，会得到以下对比结果：
- 洛杉矶 2117： 休斯顿 647
显然会得出不同的结论。
熟知过去，才能更好的认知未来。
每次写这一类文章，总能学到新东西，至少对我自己来说是值了，希望也对您会有一些帮助！
作者：建宁 2021/10/13 (转载须经作者本人同意)
评论
jenning
2021-10-19 10:41:11
回复
悄悄话
2015年石油价格暴跌的时候， 休斯顿的高端房已经跌了一点，其它影响不大。 相对来说， 德州除Austin外， 其它城市泡沫不大。
kerberose21
2021-10-17 21:31:38
回复
悄悄话
当下能源价格暴涨，通胀明显， 还好失业率并没有攀升。 不知德州会不会重蹈上世纪80年代能源危机的覆辙？再有，根据大牛的理论，房地产行业的18年周期，下一次危机不知是不是会发生在2026年。
登录后才可评论.
