伙伴们 欢迎大家来参加由中金财富打造的中国武林中国行云会客厅活动，我是主持人乔博 当下世界经济正处于充满不确定性的十字路口, 大家看到地区政治边缘冲突加剧 金融市场充满波动。
产业链结构正在面临重塑 我们看到过去很多大家熟悉的世界秩序和规则正在发生变化
面对种种的不确定性 我们该如何应对
今天我们非常有幸邀请到橡树资本联席创始人及联席董事长霍华德马克思先生
睿远基金管理有限公司创始人及投资经理陈光明先生来到现场深度对谈
希望在充满不确定性的当下 能给我们的投资者伙伴们有所启发
霍华德马克先生是橡树资本联席创始人及联系董事长 他所执掌的像素资本以逆向价值与卓越的风险管理能力
是全球最知名的另类资产管理公司之一
他更是一位布道者 相信在座的很多的伙伴都看过他两本著作
投资最重要的是和周期 这两本著作也是巴菲特先生利剑的著作
更是以三次以无人知晓为题写下了他对时代巨变的回应
他强调未来无法预测 但也正因为无人知晓
我们才更应该在不确定的市场中做出理性的决策的
陈光明先生 石睿远基金创始人及投资经理 他深耕中国资本市场超过25年
可以说是价值投资理念在中国本土化的实践者 他陈光明先生始终唱做时间的朋友
用理性与耐心诠释投资的本质 他的思考不仅关乎资本市场的起伏
更包含对于经济趋势 企业价值乃至社会责任的深度理解
霍华德先生与陈光明先生 一位是西方价值投资的领军者 一位是东方中国投资的实践者
今天他们将突破地域与文化的边界 展开投资领域的深度对话
为我们呈现一场横跨东西的思想盛宴 下面让我们用热烈的掌声欢迎霍华德马克思先生与陈光明先生
今天特别荣幸有这机会再跟霍华德先生请教学习这些
热烈欢迎霍华德先生再次来到中国派 也祝贺像素资本成立30周年
我之前与霍华德先生有两次对话 第一次是在19年
在中欧工商管理学院 当时正是霍华德先生写的第二本著作
周期这本书的中文版的出版的时间
我们就周期这本书展开了一次关于周期的对话
第二次是去年的这个时间在上海交通大学我们也举行了一次对话
今天很荣幸 这个时间也非常好 特朗普总统单选以来
这个世界不确定性是更加增加
在这个时候对于美国经济的走向的讨论是比去年多了很多
观点也更加的分化 霍华德先生一直很关注周期
所以我的第一个问题是想请教霍华德先生
您认为目前美国经济现在所处的位置和去年相比有什么明显的变化吗
另外我们也看到美国股市的总市值占到全球总市值的50%
而美国的GDP只占到全球的4分之1左右 从估值的视角写的比较高
最近有一个流行的观点是美国的例外论的终结
你怎么看待目前美国股票市场资本市场的投资价值
第一个问题包含两部分 谢谢
Thank you mr chen It's a great pleasure to be with you this morning
I am and to be with C IC Cand its very good clients from all over china
You asked many questions in that one question and i'll i'll do my best to answer
Of course a lot has changed since I spoke with you last year
noise And uh I think the U S Economy continues to perform quite well and the dynamism is quite strong
Uhhaving said that the uh election of Donald trump as president brought changes in policy uh and those have introduced volatility and uncertainty into the markets
Of course everybody knows that the biggest uncertainty surrounds trade policy and tariffs and Donald trump feels extremely strongly about a trade and tariffs it is one of the areas he has expressed beliefs for forty years basically he believes that the other countries have ah taken advantage of the U
S And imposed unfair practices and that we have to uh uh redress this and uh improve our baLance of trade through the use of tariffs
So he introduced tariffs he paused the tariffs he changed the tariffs
And the financial markets do not like uncertainty and they responded very strongly at the beginning of April
but now they have largely recovered The market appreciated the fact that president trump was responsive to it and uh when the market expressed displeasure over his extreme actions
he moderated his stance and that has uhthe people responded to that very favorably
I think we will have tariffs He is a strong believer in tariffs
There's no question in my mind that will have higher tariffs than in the past The goal should be tariffs noise that are a moderate
predictable and targeted And of course
these tariffs started off suddenly massively and as a surprise
unk and across the board rather than targeted I think they'll be narrowed over time
And of course I think the markets will adjust To the most important aspect of your question
mister chen was with regard to american exceptionalism
I believe that amErica has been pre eminent in the world for the last eighty to one hundred years eh economically the reasons include the dynamic nature of the U
S Economy and the the uh devotion to free markets the rule of law
the technological and managerial unk um uh innovation
uh strong natural resources deep capital markets
uh many things have contributed to the american position That's why uh our companies lead the world in market capitalization
Of course part of it is because more of our companies are public than in other places So it's not completely an indicator of the size of the economy or the corporate sector or there are questions now about U
S exceptionalism I believe the list of things that I mentioned has made the U S
The number one destination for capital in the world over the last century
I believe it still is I believe it's still a wonderful place to invest in and will remain
So the question is is it still as good as it always was
And uh you know so far the behavior of this administration introduces questions about the dependability of of the U
S Uh as a as a world actor and uh uh as I say
I believe that the list of things that I mentioned remains in force
Some of them are under some question today But if you look at them in total
I don't think there's AA Better place in the world for people to invest in large sums of money
The U S Has dominated international portfolios to date Some people may decide to have a little less in the united states going forward
But I don't think phrases like the end of american exceptionalism or the end of uh US
Over representation in portfolios I don't think those phrases are in order I think the US
uh will still be a very rewarding place uh to invest in the decades to come
第二个问题 就刚刚前面已经提到的4月2号这个特朗普关于全球加征关税的事情
像素是最擅长价值投资和逆向投资 在关税水平多次变化
并且未来可能还会继续变化 那么作为美国的投资人
您怎么看待这种政策变化的影响 会如何影响上述资本的投资
四月关税政策宣布后 全球市场明显回调 不仅是股票
甚至包括传统的避险资产 如国债 甚至环境
环境当然是非常短暂啊 那么一般我们会把这种剧烈下跌中的加餐乘坐接刀子
在今年4月市场这种波动幅度里 像素资本有尝试去接刀子吗
可以分享大家这种情况下如何平衡收益和风险
谢谢 Thank you mr Jenny Um I think one of the important aspects of being a value investor
as both you and we are is that our attraction comes from the companies uh not from the uh overall macro
Oak tree is not what we call a top down investor First making judgments about the economy than about the market
Then we look for good companies companies that will grow companies to lend to that will repay us and that never changes
As I mentioned uhyou know wellsome aspects of the U S Position may be somewhat diminished
The U S Exceptionalism is not at an end and the dependability of our own
our economy and our companies is not at an end So we continue to believe that we can find companies that will grow and companies that will repay us
and we pursue them whenever we find them available at a at an attractive Price
Of course uhwhen the policies were announced in early April and the markets responded negatively
uhwe view that you know some people back away they say always the market is declining Uhthat's worrisome
No we treat that as a merchandise going on sale And when the department stores run sales
we buy more aggressively And so we definitely put money to work in the weak environment of April and of course
have benefited by the recovery We think it's very important to what also always step up in tougher times
Some people call it catching a falling knife We think that's our job But uh the key is to keep one's nerve when the events in the environment are unsettling
be strong and step up I wanted to take this opportunity to ask you about the chinese market and how a
uhvalue investor like you behaved in the environment we're talking about
对这个我非常认同 或这些人刚才讲的 其实价格的波动有时候非常剧烈
我们更关注的是企业本身的内在价值
它其实并不随着这个价格有那么大的变化 他们还是最优秀的一些企业
他们还在创造着丰厚的自由现金流 这一点我非常的认可
我也稍微回复一下 四月份我们中国的资产??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????也出现了不确定的关税政策下也出现了巨大的波动
我们是有明显加餐动作 主要基于两个方面的原因
第一个就是经过1819年的贸易战之后 中国出口美国市场的占比是明显下降的
中国上市公司收入中涉及到美国出口的大只有低个位数
大约3%左右 同时企业也做了更多的准备
比如说出口市场更加的分散
第二个我们我本人也相信 中美彼此之间不可能在贸易上完全快速的切断
非理性的高关税也是不可持续的 那在市场反应非常剧烈下跌的途中
当然这个是全球性的 包括美国市场刚刚花的先生也提到 出现了明显的波动
我们认为更多的是短期风险偏好的变化 对于长期的基本面的影响
并没有向股市反映的那么大 所以我们就明显的加餐了
下面我再请教霍尔德先生 很多人在提出对美债市场的担忧
债务攀升 美债缺少买家 这里我主要想讲的是美国国债
并且主要是长端的美国国债 您是否认同这种说法 对于上述所熟悉的信用债会有怎样的影响
去年以来有不少的国内投资人布局美元债的投资
您认为投资人应该如何看待汇率的波动
因为我们是外国投资人 可能还得考虑汇率的影响
谢谢 I wrote a memo in december of entitled sea change in which I discussed the fact that the U
S Went through a period of unusually low interest rates
the fed funds rate which is our base rate was uh from the beginning of o nine until the end of twenty twenty one
The fed funds rate was zero most of the time and averaged about a half a percent
That's very unusual Today's interest rates seem high compared to the rates in that period of
but they're actually quite Normal in the context of history
Ah now it is true that the interest rate on the ten year U S Treasury which is the benchmark security
went from roughly four percent before the tariff announcements to four and a half and it has essentially stayed there so that half a percent increase in interest rates was a reflection of some displeasure with regard to the behavior
a perceived increase in uncertainty And of course
uhthings have been stirred up by the trump announcements And I would say they are uncertain
Nobody knows what uh where they're going to come out six months or two years from now
Uhin fact uhas you know the title of my memo on tariffs Was nobody knows yet again issued on April the ninth
But I continued to believe that interest rates will be roughly stable in this vicinity uh
for a good period of time I don't think they're gonna go much higher
Of course there is some concern about the dependability of U
S Treasury instruments but I think not much We were reduced one notch uh by the rating agency um recently
Uh but II think that people have to understand what that downgrade means
It's almost theoretical but because I think it means the U S Probability of defaulting went from half a per cent to one per cent
Defaults are still not likely Our interest rate is still low in the absolute
and I don't think interest rates are going to go higher unless we have an unusual burst of inflation and the fed has to restrain it
and I don't see that happening So I think that investors can expect that interest rates will be roughly stable in this vicinity
uhfor a long time to come Now that is a change from the recent history when interest rates were either declining or extremely low
And in the period I see ahead interest rates will be stable not declining and not ultra low
But I think today's environment is rather Normal and i'm very comfortable here The good news is that even that rates are higher
credit instruments like oak tree deals with now offer substantial returns
whereas during the period of low rates they did not do so We are very happy with the interest rates on credit securities here
noise 好的 下面这个问题是关于这个像素是优秀的困境债的投资人
困境债策略往往能在危机中找到较好的投资机会
例如现在的这个市场环境 您认为是困境在策略适合运作的环境吗
Again the key element to think about is the change from the ultra low interest rate environment to a more Normal interest rate environment
and that change has taken place So I mentioned how low interest rates were from o nine through twenty one
And as a result of that many companies uh were bought often by private equity funds and bought with large amounts of borrowed capital when you can borrow a large amount of money at a extremely low interest rate
it makes more sense to use other people's money than your own Uh and and the private equity investors did so and private equity grew very rapidly
The problem is that those companies will some of them we'll have trouble supporting high interest rate payments in today's interest rate environment
And especially when those debts mature some companies will have trouble refinancing their debt
Uh given that uh inch credit is not as readily available today and is more expensive
some companies will need help That is to say some will default because they cannot refinance or some will need what we call a rescue loan
a privately arranged loan to help them through a difficult period of course And these are are the two activities that we engage in most often in our opportunistic debt finds
investing in distress companies or providing rescue finance So we do believe in the next couple of years
we will be seeing an expanded opportunity to uh and that's the reason why we raised AA large sum of money
and we've put a good bit of it to work already Uhwe think there will be very good opportunities to do that
下面这个问题是关于中国市场
今年在deep sick问世之后 我们感觉到投资人对于中国市场的情绪变得更加乐观了
曾经有说法就是deep sick影响了美国科技巨头在AI产业现有的垄断格局
从您的观察 海外的投资人怎么看待中国科技这一个现象变化
Wellmr Chen I think you know i'm not an expert in technology and oak tree
for the most part does not make high tech investments Nobody can be good at everything
We don't claim to be very good at that I think the most important thing for people to recognize a signified by deep seek is uh that uh the U
S At this point in time does not have a monopoly on technological progress
And other countries most notably china will have uh things to say for itself in that sector
And deep seek is an indicator of the ability to non U S Companies and especially chinese companies to compete in some of these attractive fields like AI
Our companies have always had competition Some of the biggest problems in the stock market arise when we have so called bubbles
And one of the characteristics of a bubble in my opinion is that people underestimate likelihood that a market leader will encounter competition
Deep seek is an example of that competition And investors have to keep in mind when a sector is a performing very strongly
when a company is one of the performing strongly as the leader of that sector that that position is always subject to competition
And they should not be complacent and they should not overvalue it I have been to believe
eveneven though i'm not an expert on subject an hour leading tech companies the so called magnificent seven
which lead the s and p five hundred index are wonderful companie??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????s with unusually high profitability
very strong modes very strong technological position very strong market share And
uhyou know they are subject to competition They always have been
I think people are not gonna forget about that but I think the deep seek was a reminder This is a great opportunity for me to ask you how you look on this development and how you factor it into uh to the things you do in your portfolios
Deep seek这个公司的创始人 我是认识的
还是熟悉的 那应该讲他前面几年的这个投入
能有这么大的产出是远超我预期的 事实上从他身上的这个案例就可可以看出来
中国可能很多的企业他们所做的事情可能是被低估的
当然这个deep sick是让我作为一个资深的投资人
是让我最吃惊的 就是因为他确实没有花特别多的投入
没有买很多的卡 是吧 然后也确实没有特别长的时间这么快做到这个程度
一方面是非常鼓舞人心 另外一方面也确实是也引起我很深的思考
中国很多情况都在类似的发展 可能只是程度的不同
在这个意义上来讲 中国的投资人或者是中国的自己人 他有一些灯下黑的一种这种情况
所以整体来讲 我对这个中国科技产业 当然也包括我这稍微延伸一下
就是对中国的科技产业 这是一个典型的案例
包括对未来的长期的这些各行各业的投资机会
我是整体保持比较乐观的态度的 因为在前几年这个熊市的时候流行的主题叙事都是日本话在那个时候看到的都是啊中国的存在的一些问题
比如说老龄化立场的问题
确实和日本有相似的地方 但实际上有更多的不同
首先其实关于房地产的泡沫也是远比大年的日本要小很多的
其次就是刚刚提到的这个创新的问题 其实我们中国的创新始终站在世界的前沿
实际上是属于最创新的地方之一
另外一个地方可能应该是在美国 这个是全球最创新的两个地方
是这个和当年日本失去30年是有巨大区别的
从科技的行业的创新 从AI的突破 以及最近创新药的整体爆发
都证明着中国在创新这个方向是有巨大的潜力的
同时中国还具备最完备的 最高效率的最低成本的产业链
并且还在持续快速的迭代和进化中
在熊市的尾端 这个估值给的很低 在那个时候我们的像素资本在很多海外投资人认为不可投资的情况下
下属资本是看好的 而且是持续看好的 我23年还专门去美国去拜访了像素资本
他们是这样的一个态度 那个时候定价是太低了
这是一种错误 只是看到了悲观的一面 没有看到乐观的一面 而乐观的这一面现在正在慢慢的展现给全球的投资人
我们相信随着时间的推移 可能会有越来越多的投资人会认可中国的发展的潜力
中国企业的优秀 中国人民的优秀 我们梁文芬同志比我年纪小很多
是个80后 因为是我们这一行的 所以我有机会看到看到他的这个巨大的进步
基于对中国企业 企业家还有中国人民的信心
我们觉得中国长期的竞争力正确处于持续上升的周期中
我相信资本市场最终一定会反映中国长期上升的经济实力
最终实现较好的股东回报 You have mentioned uh
some of the differences between china and and other countries And of course
you are known for your value investing
uhexpertise and have had spectacular results lately investing in value in china
Uh what can you tell us about the difference between value investing in china and perhaps the value investing in the unit US
Or value investing in emerging markets as opposed to develop markets
Uh i'm interested to hear uh your uh view on this
霍德先生的书
首先是第一本叫投资者最重要的事儿 我们是反复阅读
非常感谢给我们带来非常好的指引
价值投资的从基本的原理上来讲
这个其实是全世界都是一样的 这个也非常简单易懂
把第一内在价格买入 实现投资回报 在这个意义上来讲
原理上是没有区别的 没有国家之间的区别 只要坚持市场经济
坚持公司所有权归属股东现代的公司治理结构
但是价值投资作为一门实践性的科学 它的难度主要在对内在价值的判断上
在不同国家内在价值的评估实践可能会有一些差异
比如说在中国内在价值的稳定性和持续性相对要偏弱一点
或者说变化会相对会更多一点 所以企业发展的周期性或者周期会相对更短一点
所以从这个意义上来讲 难度会更加大 需要更加小心的去评估
然后根据新的信息和新的变化 及时去更新企业的内在价值评估的值
其次在中国作为新兴市场 相对来讲价格的波动会更大
所以说如果价值投资坚持的好
内在价值判断的更加准确 理论上更大的波动是更容易实现更好的价值投资的收益
故意的反过来讲 有更多的价值投资者的出现 也会减少市场的价格波动
当然正是因为中国市场是一个新兴市场 有更大的波动
所以对人性的挑战就会更大 他会对你克制自己情绪的能力要求更高
他需要更多的抵抗贪婪和恐惧
抵制诱惑和抵抗压力的要求会更高 就是抵抗人性的要求更高
另外内在价值的不确定性也更大 这当然也是导致波动比较大的重要原因之一
他也更需要你提升能力去更准确更好的掌握对内在价值的评估和判断
I think the the important thread that you and I agree on is that the uh the key is the ability to objectively assess what the real value is and then when the volatility uh causes the Price to depart from the value to take advantage of those swings rather than succumb to them
Uh and uh i'm very pleased that you have done that Uhas you know
a few years ago uhthe world investors pronounced china as uninvestigated
It was an example of an of an excessive volatile reaction and those of us like yourself and like oak tree who held or added to our positions in china
I think have been rewarded to date and will continue to be rewarded
Ah what we're looking for is occasions when psychological errors cause Price to understate value
And I think that became the case uhin china just as it was became the case in our market in the turmoil of April
And I think the value investor can take advantage of下面我请教一下霍华德先生
下面一个问题 过去几年我们经常听到的一个词就是市场的不确定性增加
从2020年的疫情之后的加息的冲突
AI的发展 还有美国的关税政策等等
您在行业内从业超过50年 您觉得过去五年是否是投资上特别困难的五年
怎样面对不确定性 您认为具备什么样特质的投资人能够适应这样的市场
Ohmr Chen that's a great question When we look back and we see what happened with clarity
when we look ahead the future is uncertain Uhthe future I think
always seems more uncertain then the past was because the past we know
the future we don't We have to always bear in mind that we don't know what the future holds
uncertainty over them what we call the macro The outlook for politics
geopoliticsworld affairs and world economics is always uncertainty and subject to surprise
This contributes to the excessive swings of psychology that I referred to and to the excessive swings of Price relative to value that we want to take advantage of
Now it happens that the last five and maybe we would say the last twenty years have been unusually susceptible to outside influences
noisethe global financial crisis the excessive levering up of the financial sector and then the demise of some financial sectors
And then uhcompanies was an example Of course the pandemic was the russian invasion of ukraine
uhall the belligerency in the middle east the ups and downs of inflation and interest rate
It just feels that there has been so much volatility in terms of the environment and and maybe it's true that it is more than ever
but I think that people lose crack of the fact that the future is always uncertain and they mustn't do that
Fear over uncertainty sometimes persuades people not to invest
Usually it does So when the uncertainty has rendered the market cheap
we don't want to be discouraged at that point in time We want to be strong and invest despite the fact that the future is always uncertain
uncertain in the long run The U S And chinese economies are engines of growth
In the long run they will make their companies more valuable And uh
it's a distraction to let the volatility of uh of the market
which is induced by the volatility of investor psychology
deter us from participating You know Warren buffett the greatest investor in history
is famous for having said don't bet against the united states and uh I would also say don't bet against china
Long term patient conscientious commitment to to investing is much more successful than trying to guess at the future and get in and get out
Vast majority of investors both amateur and professional don't have the ability to do that timing
The market is very difficult Uhuh time in the market is what produces wealth in the long run
And I what we tried to practice and what I applaud about your approach is awareness of value consistent approach when the upsurge of uncertainty causes Prices to collapse的being strong and owning more
not less I think we should continue to do that uhdespite the fact that from time to time
uncertainty appears greater Uh and in that context i'd like to ask you how you think about and how you have weathered the ups and downs of uh of attitudes towards the chinese market noise
对这个华德先生讲的很经典 对于美国经济也好
对于中国经济也好 对于美国的资本市场还是中国的资本市场
这些优秀的公司持续的创造价值的时候 他们很多时候还是要以农民的这个心态
长期的耕种 而不是猎人的心态动不动去打个猎
打猎的水平要求挺高 难度非常大 所以我非常认同
过去五年 或者说过去的一个周期中国的资本市场的波动确实非常的大
到现在其实还没有恢复 过去的这个周期当中
在牛市的时候 确实我本人还是保持了一定的警惕
这个也是在某种意义上来讲 也得益于霍华德先??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????生的这个指导
当时霍尔德先生说过刚鹿晗的时候是美国漂亮50的这个高峰期
得出的结论就是买好的不如买的 好在20年我们中国市场有点类似
也有点类似漂亮50的这个情况 就是好的公司挺贵的
所以我也很警惕 那么到了21年 也是牛市还在延续的过程中
风格也转向了一些 行业趋势非常好的 叫我们叫赛道投资
那些公司的竞争力其实是啊存疑的 只是说行业趋势也比较好
对于这一些我更加的谨慎 因为这个对内在价值的判断不确定
所以在牛市的当中我是保持的警惕和谨慎
尤其还有对宏观经济的一个周期 华大学生写的这个周期的理论来讲
我们中国经济的最主要的过去的驱动力 房地产周期已经面临着调整的这个压力了
所以对于中国经济的这个周期 我也宏观经济也是相对也比较谨慎
这当然从长期来讲 我们也认为这个还是会持续的往上走
我们也应该看到更多好的那一方面 但是在一个阶段性的 它有一个经济结构的调整
这个老的传统经济走到比较高的位置 他有下的压力的时候
整体来讲就是用比较通俗的话来讲 就是牛市的时候要担心一点
风险偏好降低一点 对吧 熊市来临之后
大家都觉得不可投资的时候 我们是站在法
我们在那个时刻 我们买了很多中国的优秀企业
而且一直是持有 所以在通过这样的一个价值投资的方式
我们基本上本人应该算是组合应该算是比较平稳和顺利的度过了这么一个周期
所以还是价值投资帮助了我第一the most important message that comes out of this discussion that I think you and I share
that I want to emphasize for the viewing audiences is that the benefits from investing come from the long term growth of the economy and the long term performance of our good companies
The newspapers and the T V stations if you pay too much attention
will give you the impression that the market determines your performance and the
and that the market is the source of your gains
uhand that you must attend to the fluctuations of the market and deal with them and maybe even get in or out in anticipation of them
And I think this is a mistake The market in the short term is subject to psychology
Its fluctuations overstate changes in the uh in the fitness of the companies and distract from the long term mission
The long term mission as I keep saying is to invest in our economies and to invest in companies that will grow and lend money to companies that will pay us back
And in the long term that's where our returns come from
not from something called the market but from the the quality companies that we invest in
恭喜 像素资本创办30周年年取得了巨大的成就
您作为第一代创始人 可能也在考虑传承的问题
关于公司的传承有什么碰到什么挑战 还有什么样的好的方法可以分享
能够顺利的传承到第二代甚至第三代
因为我也知道这个投资管理公司对人的依赖非常的大
怎么做好传承是一个巨大的挑战 您是行业的前辈 我们非常想听听您在这方面有什么思考
谢谢 Thank you mr chen Um I i'd like to say that I will lead oak tree forever
But chances are it's not true We have to ensure the succession of the management
the skills of the individual are extremely important and we have to identify successors who have the necessary skills to be successful investors
But I think the the glue the common thread that ensures the succession is the culture at oak tree
We have a very strong culture The people who founded oak tree thirty years ago worked together for the prior nine or ten years
So we have forty years together And in fact at the time of our founding
we already had extensive experience with each other and we knew what kind of culture we wanted to create
And our mission was clear from the beginning of oak tree So we wrote down and established our investment philosophy
which has six important points that have never changed and that applied to everything we do
risk control consistencymarkets that are not fully understood
understood where we can get an advantage specializing in a few things rather than trying to do everything
not basing our investments on macro decisions about economies and markets
not trying to time the markets and get in and get out This is our investment philosophy
I think it's been very effective forty years We've worked together already And so the key to a successful succession was to find people with the skills and intelligence and people who embodied that culture
which we have done So we last year we appointed to co CEOS and the chief Operating officer
The three of them average approximately twenty years working at oak tree already
and they're just embarking on these rolls They bring a complete adherence to the culture in addition to a high degree of intelligence
skill and integrity So i'm very confident arranging a succession of management that will permit oak tree to continue to perform in the same mode as it always has
Culture is what makes an organization more than just the sum of the people
对 最后一个问题的 另外还有一个就是另外一部分 就是在资产管理行业
价值投资的反人性的逆向操作
与客户顺人性的投资行为 这两者之间如何实现更好的匹配
这是一个世界性的难题 你有什么好的办法和建议
就通俗的讲就是客户往往在市场热的时候比较激动
在市场低迷的时候非常的沮丧 他很难做出价值投资
拟人性的法人性的逆向操作
您有什么好的建议 谢谢 Noise
that's really the key question has interest and
You mentioned markets being hot and being cold And it is this movement of markets from hot to cold to hot to cold based on investor psychology
which goes from optimistic to pessimistic to optimistic to pessimism
This fluctuation what we call volatility is really excessive
And as I said earlier importantlyit is a distraction from the real mission
And I think that the professional is
and especially the value investor which both you and I are
keeps the eye on value avoids the distraction of caring about what mr
Market says is good or bad to day as compared to yesterday and perseveres through cold times
And we limit one's excitement in hot times and uh behaves uh as a mature professional throughout
That's the best way to participate in the long term games of economies and companies
And I think that this understanding is at the base of the successful investing and always will be
感谢两位投资大师的精彩分享 相信刚才hold marx先生所分享的投资理念对大家有很深的启发
对真正的投资收益并不是来自于市场 而是来自于高质量企业的内生价值的提升
在面对当下众多纷纭的市场的噪音 我相信也会给我们很多投资者带来一些内心的从容和坚定
再一次让我们掌声感谢霍尔的marx先生和陈光明先生的精彩分享
谢谢
