2022年中国对发展中国家的贸易额超过发达国家

这是日益分裂的世界经济中的美国与中国之争

2023 年 11 月 8 日，作者：Gabriel Malheiros

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/economy-us-china-tariffs-trade-investment-1c58d24e

2023 年 11 月 3 日，文章《日益分裂的世界经济中的美国与中国之争》表明，中国去年秋天跨过了一个重要的里程碑：自四十多年前经济开放以来，中国与发展中国家的贸易额首次超过美国、欧洲和日本的总和。这是迄今为止最明显的迹象之一，表明随着贸易、技术、安全和其他棘手问题的紧张局势加剧，中国和西方正在走向不同的方向。

几十年来，美国和其他西方国家一直试图让中国成为由最富裕国家主导的单一全球经济中的合作伙伴和客户。现在，贸易和投资流动正在形成围绕两个相互竞争的权力中心建立的新模式。

在这个日益分裂的世界经济中，华盛顿继续通过投资限制和出口禁令加大对中国的压力，而中国则将其经济的大部分从西方转向发展中国家。

对美国和欧洲的好处包括减少对中国供应链的依赖，并为美国人和欧洲人提供更多就业机会，否则这些就业机会可能会流向中国。但存在重大风险，例如全球经济增长放缓——许多经济学家担心西方和中国的成本将超过优势。

随着双方投入更多资源，这些战略越来越难以瓦解。

中国工厂正在用来自国内或发展中国家的化学品、零部件和机床取代西方的化学品、零部件和机床。2019 年，中国与东南亚的贸易额超过了与美国的贸易额。中国现在与俄罗斯的贸易额超过了与德国的贸易额，很快与巴西的贸易额也将达到同样的水平。

中国的对外投资现在主要流向资源丰富的地区，如印度尼西亚或中东，而不是美国。

包括苹果、Stellantis 和惠普在内的西方大公司正在寻求将生产从中国转移。红杉资本等金融公司已采取行动，限制或保护其在华业务。

接受美中贸易全国委员会调查的美国公司中，超过三分之一表示，过去一年他们减少或暂停了对华投资计划，这一数字创历史新高，远高于去年的 22%。

“世界正在分裂成相互竞争的领域，”纽约咨询公司 Rhodium Group 高级顾问 Noah Barkin 表示。“这种势头……在某种程度上是自我推动的。但风险在于，随着时间的推移，这种势头会加速，政府将更难以应对。”

增长缓慢
国际货币基金组织 10 月份表示，中国与西方之间的分裂正在拖累今年的世界经济复苏。IMF 的研究表明，美国和中国主导的集团之间更严重的分裂可能会使全球经济损失高达国内生产总值的 7%，价值数万亿美元。

经济分裂使企业无法进入能够带来利润的重要市场，也使得分享技术和资本变得更加困难，从而抑制了增长。

成本已经对大公司产生了影响，尤其是德国等欧洲国家，这些国家近几十年来通过向中国销售汽车和高端机械而蓬勃发展。据中国汽车工业协会称，随着中国品牌的扩张，大众和丰田等德国和日本汽车制造商目前在中国汽车市场的份额约为 30%，低于三年前的近 50%。

It's US vs. China in an Increasingly Divided World Economy

 Nov, 08, 2023 by Gabriel Malheiros

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/economy-us-china-tariffs-trade-investment-1c58d24e

Nov. 3, 2023, article It’s U.S. vs. China in an Increasingly Divided World Economy indicates that China passed a significant milestone last fall: For the first time since its economic opening more than four decades ago, it traded more with developing countries than the U.S., Europe and Japan combined. It was one of the clearest signs yet that China and the West are going in different directions as tensions increase over trade, technology, security and other thorny issues.

For decades, the U.S. and other Western countries sought to make China both a partner and a customer in a single global economy led by the richest nations. Now trade and investment flows are settling into new patterns built around the two competing power centers.

In this increasingly divided world economy, Washington continues to raise the heat on China with investment curbs and export bans, while China reorients large parts of its economy away from the West toward the developing world.

Benefits for the U.S. and Europe include less reliance on Chinese supply chains and more jobs for Americans and Europeans that otherwise might go to China. But there are major risks, such as slower global growth—and many economists worry the costs for both the West and China will outweigh the advantages.

The strategies are growing harder to unravel as both sides sink more resources into them.

Chinese factories are replacing Western chemicals, parts and machine tools with those from home or sourced from developing nations. China’s trade with Southeast Asia surpassed its trade with the U.S. in 2019. China now trades more with Russia than it does with Germany, and soon will be able to say the same about Brazil.

China’s outbound investment now mainly goes to resource-rich places like Indonesia or the Middle East, rather than to the U.S.

Major Western companies including Apple, Stellantis and HP are looking to shift production from China. Financial firms like Sequoia Capital have moved to curb or ringfence their China activities.

More than one-third of U.S. companies surveyed by the U.S. China Business Council, which represents American companies in China, said they’ve reduced or paused planned investment in China over the past year, a record high and well above 22% last year.

“The world is splintering into rival spheres,” said Noah Barkin, senior adviser with Rhodium Group, a New York-based advisory firm. “There is a momentum…that in a way is self-propelling. There is a risk it accelerates over time and becomes more difficult for governments to manage.”

Slow Growth

The International Monetary Fund said in October that fragmentation between China and the West was weighing on the world’s economic recovery this year. A more severe break between U.S.- and China-led blocs could cost the global economy as much as 7% of gross domestic product, worth trillions of dollars, IMF research suggests.

The economic split deprives companies of access to vital markets that drive profits and makes it harder to share technology and capital, depressing growth.

Costs are already adding up for major companies, especially in European nations like Germany, which thrived in recent decades by selling autos and high-end machinery to China. German and Japanese automakers like Volkswagen and Toyota now account for about 30% of China’s auto market, down from almost 50% three years ago, as Chinese brands have expanded, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

Source: The Wall Street Journal

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