警告 特朗普会让所有经济体陷入困境

全球经济学家警告称，特朗普可能会让所有经济体陷入困境

Economists Across The Globe Are Warning That Trump Could Tank ALL Economies
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFCzOyuYhKk

The Ring of Fire 2024年12月10日  

唐纳德·特朗普的第二任期计划不仅对美国经济构成威胁，还将对几乎每个与美国有业务往来的国家产生影响。全球经济学家和经济机构都在敲响警钟，警告特朗普将如何损害他们的经济，同时也警告称，美国遭受的损失可能比我们的经济学家已经预测的要严重得多。Ring of Fire 的 Farron Cousins 解释了正在发生的事情。

*此记录由第三方转录软件公司生成，因此请原谅任何错别字。

经济学家相信唐纳德·特朗普当然会通过他的大规模驱逐出境和对所有人征收关税的双重政策彻底摧毁美国经济，这已经不是什么秘密了。但特朗普将要重创的不仅仅是美国经济。美国以外的全球经济学家现在也敲响了警钟，美国将遭受最严重的打击，但我们依赖美国来做贸易，来获得军事支持。

当他让美国陷入衰退，甚至可能陷入全面萧条时，我们也会遭受损失。以下是英国国家经济和社会研究所的保罗·莫蒂默·李 (Paul Mortimer Lee) 的看法。首先，他说唐纳德·特朗普的关税组合考虑不周，仓促且具有破坏性。大规模驱逐非法移民、减税和提高支出效率可能会使美国经济陷入衰退。然后他补充说，在最糟糕的情况下，驱逐移民会导致大规模的关税增加，直接打击并迅速报复。有效 GDP 可能会收缩两到三个百分点。

莫蒂默·李表示，鉴于这一群体在美国经济中发挥的重要作用，特朗普的移民政策将是最有害的。他还补充说，驱逐 500 万工人可能会导致 GDP 下降近 2.5%，因为驱逐将持续数年。GDP 增长率的下降将是持续性的，而不是像关税那样的一次性冲击，但他随后警告说，关税当然会导致通货膨胀飙升。但问题是，他的数字不对，而他数字不对的原因是他低估了数字。他说，如果他们驱逐 500 万人，伙计，没有人会说 500 万人。特朗普团队的一些成员说是 2500 万人。

所以你把你得到的数字，比如保守估计的 500 万，乘以五。现在，我并不是说这意味着 GDP 的收缩也乘以五。虽然规模不同，但如果 500 万人被驱逐出境导致经济萎缩 2.5%，那么我只能想象 1000 万、1500 万、2000 万、2500 万的驱逐会给全球经济造成多大的损害。这将是全球经济灾难。再说一遍，这不是我说的，是那些经济学家惊恐地看着我们选出的下一任总统，告诉我们我们都完蛋了。

就像，是的，我们，你们会受到最严重的打击。但你们现在也把我们搞砸了。这就是他们说的。你们这些美国的白痴只有一份工作。不要让这个疯子进白宫，因为他的政策会伤害到每个人，而你们失败了。这就是他们想传达给我们的信息。

当然，这是他们在选举前试图传达的信息，但作为一个国家，作为一个投票群体，我们显然没有听从，我们将受到打击，当然，受到的打击最严重，但他们也会受到打击，他们不会对此感到高兴。所以当我们最终能够解决这些问题时，当特朗普下??台时，可能很难找到盟友和贸易伙伴。如果他们知道下次共和党上台时，他们还会再次做同样可怕的事情。

但作为一个国家，作为一个有投票权的群体，我们显然没有听从，我们当然会受到最严重的打击，但他们也会受到打击，而且他们不会对此感到高兴。所以当我们最终能够解决这些问题时，当特朗普下??台时，可能很难找到盟友和贸易伙伴。如果他们知道下次共和党上台时，他们还会做同样可怕的事情。

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经济学家们相信唐纳德·特朗普当然会通过他的大规模驱逐出境和对所有人征收关税的双重政策彻底摧毁美国经济，这已经不是什么秘密了。但他要摧毁的不仅仅是美国经济。美国以外的全球经济学家现在也敲响了警钟，警告说，是的，美国将受到最严重的打击，但我们依赖他们来做很多事情，比如贸易、军事支持。当他让美国陷入衰退，甚至可能陷入全面萧条时，我们也将遭受损失。以下是英国国家经济和社会研究所的保罗·莫蒂默·李 (Paul Mortimer Lee) 的看法。首先，他说唐纳德·特朗普的关税组合考虑不周，仓促且具有破坏性。大规模驱逐非法移民、减税和提高支出效率可能会使美国经济陷入衰退。他接着补充说，最糟糕的情况是，驱逐移民将导致大规模关税上调，直接打击并迅速报复。有效 GDP 可能会萎缩两到三个百分点。莫蒂默·李表示，鉴于这一群体在美国经济中发挥的重要作用，特朗普的移民政策将是最具破坏性的。他补充说，驱逐 500 万工人可能会使 GDP 减少近 2.5%，因为驱逐将持续数年。GDP 增长率的降低将是持续的，而不是像关税那样的一次性冲击，但他随后还警告说，关税当然会加剧通货膨胀。但问题是，他的数字是错误的，而他的数字错误的原因是他低估了它。他说，如果他们驱逐 500 万人，老兄，没人说是 500 万人。特朗普团队的一些成员说是 2500 万人。所以你拿这个数字，比如保守估计的 500 万人，然后乘以 5。现在，我并不是说这意味着 GDP 的收缩也乘以 5。这不是同一种规模，但如果 500 万人被驱逐出境导致我们经济萎缩 2.5%，那么我只能想象 1000 万、1500 万、2000 万、2500 万人被驱逐出境会给全球经济造成多大的损害。这将是全球经济的灾难。再说一次，这不是我说的，是那些经济学家惊恐地看着我们选出的下一任总统，告诉我们我们都完蛋了。就像，是的，我们，你们会受到最严重的打击。但你们现在也把我们搞垮了。这就是他们说的。你们这些美国的白痴只有一件事要做。不要让那个疯子入主白宫，因为他的政策会伤害到每个人，而你们失败了。这就是他们想向我们传达的信息。当然，这是他们在选举前试图传达的信息，但作为一个国家，作为一个有投票权的群体，我们显然没有听从，我们会受到打击，当然会受到最严重的打击，但他们也会受到打击，他们不会为此感到高兴。所以当我们终于能够解决这些问题时，当特朗普下??台时，可能很难找到盟友和贸易伙伴。如果他们知道下次共和党上台时，他们还会再次做出同样可怕的事情。

Economists Across The Globe Are Warning That Trump Could Tank ALL Economies

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFCzOyuYhKk

The Ring of Fire 2024年12月10日  

Donald Trump’s plans for a second term aren’t just a threat to the US economy – they will have an impact on nearly every country that does any kind of business with the United States. Global economists and economic institutes are sounding the alarm bells about how Trump is going to harm their economies while also warning that the damage in the US could be far worse than what’s already been predicted by our economists. Ring of Fire’s Farron Cousins explains what’s happening.

*This transcript was generated by a third-party transcription software company, so please excuse any typos.

It's no secret that economists believe that Donald Trump is of course going to absolutely destroy the US economy through his dual policies of mass deportations, and of course tariffs on everybody. But it's not just the US economy that he is going to tank. Global economists outside of the United States are now also sounding the alarm bells about the fact that, yeah, the US is gonna get hit the hardest, but we depend on them for things, for trade, for, you know, uh, uh, uh, military support. And we too will suffer when, not if, but when he sends the US spiraling into a recession, possibly even a full-blown depression. Here is what Paul Mortimer Lee of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in the United Kingdom had to say. First he said that Donald Trump's Ill considered rushed and damaging combination of tariffs. The mass expulsion of illegal immigrants tax cuts and spending efficiencies was likely to tip the US economy into recession. He then added in a worst case scenario where immigrant expulsions are massive tariff increases, hit straight away and retaliation is swift. And effective GDP could contract by two to three percentage points. 

Mortimer Lee said Trump's immigration policies would be the most damaging given the important role this group plays in the US economy. And he added expelling 5 million workers could reduce GDP by close to 2.5% since the expulsions would continue for years. The reduced rate of growth in GDP would be persistent, not a one-off shock like tariffs, but he also then went on to warn that tariffs, of course, are gonna spike inflation. But here's the thing, his numbers are off, and the reason his numbers are off is because he's low balling it. He's like, if they, if they deport 5 million people, dude, nobody's saying 5 million people. We have had some members of Trump's team say 25 million people. 

So you take that number that you have, like the conservative estimate of 5 million and you multiply that by five. Now, I'm not saying that that means you multiply the contraction of GDP by five as well. It's not on the same kind of scale, but if 5 million deportations get us 2.5% contraction, shrinking of the economy, then I can only imagine the damage that 10 million, 15, 20, 25 expulsions would cause for our global economy. It would be worldwide economic devastation. And again, that's not me saying that, that is these economists that are looking at us in horror over what we've picked to be the next president telling us that we're all screwed. 

Like, yeah, us, you're gonna get screwed the worst. But y'all have screwed us over now too. That's what they're saying. You idiots in the United States had one job. Don't let the crazy person get to the White House because his policies are going to harm everyone and you failed. That is the message they want to send to us. It's a message, of course, they actually tried to send before the election, but as a, as a country, as a voting population, we apparently didn't listen and we're gonna hit, get hit the hardest, of course, but they're gonna get hit too, and they're not gonna be happy about it. So when we finally get to the point where we can fix these things, when Trump is out of office, it may be a lot harder to have, you know, allies, trade partners. If they know that the next time a Republican gets in office, they're just gonna do the same horrible thing again.