Warwick Powell 中国新经济战略的影响

Don't Miss Out! How China's New Economic Strategies Impacts You

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYFiFtj1oOM

Warwick Powell | 鲍韶山， @baoshaoshan，adjunct Professor at Queensland University of Astralia; working at the intersection of China, digital technologies, supply chains, financial flows and global political economy & governance. 

Think BRICS  2024年7月21日

Explore China's New Economic Strategies with Prof. Warwick Powell as we delve into China's Third Plenum, Digital Payments, Supply Chain Digitalization, and more. Learn about the mBridge Payment Platform and its potential to revolutionize international transactions. Understand the real implications of De-dollarization and how China’s Technological Independence initiatives are reshaping global markets. This comprehensive overview covers Economic Reforms, Global Financial Stability, and the impact of the BRICS Alliance on global dynamics. We also discuss China's Economic Impact on Foreign Investment, International Trade, and Economic Modernization, emphasizing National Security and Digital Economy advancements. Discover how Blockchain technology, Electric Vehicles, and Semiconductors play pivotal roles in China's growth strategy.

In this interview, Prof. Warwick Powell shares insights into China's ambitious goals for 2035 and the modernization of its governance systems. We examine the balance between China's Digital Economy and Supply Chain innovations and how these developments affect global markets. Additionally, the video highlights the geopolitical implications of China-US Trade Relations and China’s Financial Strategies aimed at achieving sustainable economic growth. We explore China’s Green Development initiatives, Rule of Law advancements, and efforts towards an Inclusive Democracy. This in-depth analysis provides a clear picture of China’s private sector's contributions to GDP growth and the broader global economic trends influenced by these strategies.

While this video provides a thorough analysis of China's New Economic Strategies and their global impact, it also offers insightful discussions into the intricacies of China's local economic policies and provides comparisons with other nations' strategies. Additionally, the video explores the domestic social impact of these economic reforms and the potential challenges faced by China's technological advancements. For those seeking a deeper understanding of China’s internal policy adjustments and the microeconomic effects of these strategies, this video is an invaluable resource. Our comprehensive approach ensures you gain a well-rounded perspective on these critical developments.

This video is a must-watch for anyone interested in Global Markets, China-US Trade Relations, and the far-reaching implications of China's economic and technological evolution. Stay informed and understand the nuances of these complex developments with Prof. Warwick Powell’s expert insights.

Follow Prof. Warwick Powell: ?? X: https://x.com/baoshaoshan ?? Substack: https://warwickpowell.substack.com/ ?? Website: https://www.smarttradenetworks.com/

打破“霸权接力”游戏，中国为世界经济去中心化赋能

来源：中国日报网  2024-07-18

导读

过去数百年来，全球经济呈“中心-边缘”结构，位于中心地位的霸权国家从边缘国家掠夺财富，造成全球发展不均衡。近年来随着中国的崛起，这种轴辐结构被打破，世界经济格局出现去中心化趋势。中国致力于在国内国际两个市场构建更加均衡的经济发展模式，让更多人享受发展的红利。日前召开的中共二十届三中全会围绕中国式现代化建设、高质量发展等议题，为实现这一目标的指明了方向。

本文为中国观察智库独家约稿，转载请注明来源：中国日报中国观察智库。

在过去700年的大部分时间里，全球经济扩张呈现出日益一体化的特征：越来越多的国家和地区被卷入资本积累的循环，而其中总有一个霸权国家占据着政治经济主导地位。世界体系呈“中心-边缘”的轴辐结构不断扩张，在这个结构中，霸权的接力棒几次易手，从文艺复兴时期的意大利到“海上马车夫”荷兰，再到“日不落帝国”不列颠，现在又传给了美国。

在每个时代，位于“轴辐”中心的霸权国家都在从位于边缘的国家掠夺财富。现在，我们再次来到了系统性变革的时期，但不同的是，这一次的变革可能并不是“霸权接力棒的传递”那么简单，而是系统性的去中心化。

中国共产党第二十届三中全会日前在北京召开，会议的主要议程之一是审议《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化建设的决定》稿。审议主要围绕中国式现代化建设、新质生产力、高质量发展等核心议题展开。所有这些不仅事关中国自身的发展，而且也将对正在形成的世界体系的形态产生重大影响。

过去30年来，中国已经成为世界上唯一的制造业“超级大国”。它贡献了全球30%的制造业附加值，在所有产品类别中都占据了重要地位。这得益于强劲的国内市场增长。1995年，中国制造业产出占出口的比例为11%；在中国加入世贸组织短短几年后的2004年，这一比例上升至18%；如今这一比例再次降至13%左右。换句话说，随着产出的增长，国内市场也在增长。

与此同时，中国已成为140多个国家的最大贸易伙伴。在过去10年中，中国同全球南方国家，特别是同“一带一路”共建国的贸易增长，超过了同欧美发达经济体的贸易增长。如今，中国与全球南方国家的贸易额超过了与美国、欧盟和日本的贸易额之和。

中国当前和未来一段时期的出口增长，将围绕可再生能源系统、新能源运输解决方案和数字技术的结合展开。国内市场的激烈竞争，加上快速的自动化和集群效应带来的生产力提高，极大地压低了产品价格。成本的不断降低让新技术逾越了国家间发展程度不同的障碍，加速了各国的低碳转型，助力《巴黎协定》目标的实现，最终让整个世界受益。

低成本的清洁运输系统，以及能源主权，对于扩大资本积累及全球生产和增值的去中心化至关重要。

中国通过把“蛋糕”做大的方式，让所有人民享受发展的红利，这与过去那种通过人为制造紧缺和寻租，只让少数人获利的资本积累模式截然不同——前者让消费者获得好处，而后者让食利者积累财富。

中国也正在成为一个资本输出国，在“一带一路”框架下投资的基础设施项目就是显著的例子。但最近，我们看到中国企业在其他国家投资矿产加工和制造业的项目越来越多，这说明中国不光是在“授人以鱼”，也是在“授人以渔”。

在过去30年的大部分时间里，全球的数据流都是通过地面基站、海底光缆和人造卫星组成的通信网络进行传输的，而这些数据最终汇入了美国弗吉尼亚州的数据中心。这给数据安全和数字主权带来了隐患。正如美国学者亨利·法雷尔和亚伯拉罕·纽曼在2023年出版的《地下帝国》 (Underground Empire) 一书中所说：美国通过控制全球商业通道，将全球经济武器化了。

但这种情况也正在发生变化。中国企业正在扩大自己的数字网络，为“一带一路”框架下越来越多的贸易基础设施提供支撑。这个数字网络及其相关的数据中心等“硬件”设施，与开源操作系统和平台等“软件”相结合，共同构成了21世纪新数字标准的基础，正在催生一个新兴的“数字威斯特伐利亚体系”。

中国要搞现代化建设，核心是要构建所谓的“新质生产力”。新质生产力可以降低生产和流通成本，进而随着基础设施和技术的日益普及，促进财富的分散。中国在寻求国内更均衡发展的同时，也在通过贸易、资本输出和技术转让，促进全球一体化，解决数十年来全球发展不均衡的问题。

克服不均衡的经济发展，与挪威政治学家约翰·加尔通提出的“积极的和平”理念是相通的。今天，多极化已经成为现实。中共二十届三中全会正在制定一项政策方针，巩固全球新经济架构的基础，以支撑各国日益增长的经济主权基础上不可分割的总体安全。

是做一个剥削者还是赋能者？这是个问题。在世界多极化的时代，中国式现代化给出了唯一的确定答案：要做一个赋能者——通过去中心化的、均衡的全球经济发展来赋能民族复兴和积极和平。三中全会为实现这一目标指明了具体步骤的方向。

本文原文发表在中国日报国际版，原标题为 "Enabler not expropriator"

出品：中国日报中国观察智库

Enabler not expropriator

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202407/18/WS66987dbfa31095c51c50eb56.html?

By WARWICK POWELL   2024-07-18 10:28

China's development model is pricing people into the green transition by way of abundance

For the best part of the past 700 years, the system of global economic expansion has been characterized by increasing integration with more territories incorporated into circuits of capital accumulation against a backdrop of a dominant political-economic hegemon. The world system has expanded as a center-periphery structure, in which the baton of the hegemon has been handed from the Italians to the Dutch, then to the English and then to the Americans.

In each epoch, the hegemon has expropriated wealth from the periphery. We are now, again, in a period of systemic change. But perhaps, this time, the transformation is not merely one of "passing on the baton" but one of systemic decentering.

The third plenary session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is guided by and will deliberate on the draft of the CPC Central Committee's Decision on Further Comprehensively Deepening Reform and Advancing Chinese Modernization. Much of these deliberations will revolve around core themes such as Chinese modernization, new quality productive forces and high-quality development. All of these have implications not just for China's own development but also for the shape of the world system that is unfolding.

In the past three decades, China has emerged as the world's sole manufacturing superpower. It contributes 30 percent of global value added, and occupies a prime position in all product categories. It has achieved this off the back of strong domestic market growth. In 1995, the ratio of China's manufactured output to exports was 11 percent. This increased to 18 percent in 2004, a few years after the country's admission to the World Trade Organization, receding to 13 percent or so today. Put another way, as output grew so did the domestic market.

At the same time, China has emerged as the largest trading partner for over 140 nations. Over the past decade, China's trade growth with the Global South, particularly those participating in the Belt and Road Initiative, has outstripped trade growth with the mature economies of Europe and the United States. Now, China trades more with the Global South than it does with the US, the European Union and Japan combined.

The current and future phase of export growth will revolve around a combination of renewable energy systems, new energy transport solutions and digital technologies. Intense competition in the domestic market, coupled with rapid automation and cluster-enabled productivity gains, has placed incredible downward pressure on prices. The world market is now the beneficiary of low-cost technologies that overcome development barriers and hasten the decarbonization transition that nations agreed to strive for in the Paris climate accord.

Low-cost and clean transport systems together with energy sovereignty are pivotal to expanded capital accumulation and the decentering of global production and value adding.

China's model is pricing people in by way of abundance. This contrasts with the traditional models of capital accumulation that prices people out through confected scarcity and rent seeking. Consumers are the beneficiaries in the former case, whereas the rentier accumulates wealth in the latter.

China is also emerging as an exporter of capital. Infrastructure investments via the BRI are notable examples, but more recently we are seeing Chinese companies invest in minerals processing and manufacturing facilities in other countries. China isn't just exporting final products; it is exporting value-adding capacity and know-how.

For the best part of the past 30 years, the flow of data globally has been via a network of terrestrial, submarine and stellar infrastructure channeled through data centers in Virginia in the US.Data security and sovereignty were compromised. In effect, as argued recently by US scholars Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman in their 2023 book Underground Empire, the US has weaponized the global economy through its control over the pipes of global commerce

This, too, is changing, as Chinese companies expand an alternative digital network to buttress the growing array of trade infrastructure that has been developed through the BRI. This digital network and its associated infrastructure of data centers is allied with a growing commitment to open-source operating systems and platforms, as the foundation for the new digital standards for the 21st century. Such an approach is enabling an emergent Digital Westphalia.

Chinese modernization is underpinned by what has been called new quality productive forces. These enable the development of low-cost systems of production and circulation, supporting value decentering as infrastructure and know-how are made increasingly available. Just as China seeks to achieve more even development domestically, the effects of its model of global integration via trade, capital exports and transfer of knowhow is also tackling decades of uneven global development.

Overcoming uneven economic development is symbiotic with what Johan Galtung once described as a positive peace. Multipolarity is already a reality today, and the third plenum of the 20th CPC Central Committee is consolidating a policy approach that reinforces the economic underpinnings of a new global economic architecture that can support models of indivisible security for all based on growing economic sovereignty.

To be an expropriator or an enabler? That is the question. In an era of multipolarity, Chinese modernization can only take the form of being an enabler — an enabler of national rejuvenation and of positive peace through decentered, even economic development worldwide. The third plenum consolidates steps toward this.

The author is an adjunct professor at Queensland University of Technology and a senior fellow at the Taihe Institute. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at [e-mail].