善意地狱 美国外交政策精英与美国主导地位的衰落

善意地狱：美国外交政策精英与美国主导地位的衰落

作者：史蒂芬·沃尔特 2018 年 1 月 1 日
https://www.amazon.ca/Hell-Good-Intentions-Americas-Foreign/dp/0374280037

《纽约时报》畅销书作家斯蒂芬·沃尔特 (Stephen M. Walt) 的《善意地狱》剖析了美国近期外交政策的错误和缺陷，解释了为什么美国会受到伊拉克和阿富汗“永远的战争”等灾难的困扰，并概述了美国外交政策的哪些问题。 可以修复它。

1992年，美国站在世界强国的顶峰，美国人对和平与繁荣的新时代即将到来充满信心。 二十五年后，这些希望已经破灭。 与俄罗斯和中国的关系恶化，欧盟摇摇欲坠，民族主义和民粹主义抬头，美国陷入代价高昂且毫无意义的战争，这些战争浪费了数万亿美元并削弱了其在世界各地的影响力。

沃尔特认为，这一惨淡记录的根源在于美国外交政策机构对“自由霸权”战略的顽固承诺。 自冷战结束以来，共和党人和民主党人都试图利用美国的力量将民主、开放市场和其他自由主义价值观传播到地球的每一个角落。 这一战略注定要失败，但其在外交政策精英中的支持者却从未被追究责任，并不断重蹈覆辙。

唐纳德·特朗普赢得总统职位，承诺结束外交政策“Blob”的误导性政策，并采取更明智的做法。 但他反复无常、冲动的执政风格，加上对世界政治的深刻理解存在缺陷，正在使本已糟糕的局势变得更糟。 沃尔特认为，最好的选择是回归“离岸平衡”的现实主义战略，避开政权更迭、国家建设和其他形式的全球社会工程。 美国人民肯定会欢迎更加克制的外交政策，允许更多地关注国内问题。 这种迟来的转变需要放弃对自由霸权的徒劳追求，并建立一个对美国实力有更现实看法的外交政策机构。

斯蒂芬·M·沃尔特（Stephen M. Walt）的《善意地狱》清晰、坦率、文笔优美，既对美国最近的外交政策愚蠢行为做出了令人信服的诊断，又为重新取得成功提供了行之有效的公式。

The Hell of Good Intentions: America's Foreign Policy Elite and the Decline of U.S. Primacy 
by Stephen M. Walt  Jan. 1 2018
https://www.amazon.ca/Hell-Good-Intentions-Americas-Foreign/dp/0374280037

From the New York Times–bestselling author Stephen M. Walt, The Hell of Good Intentions dissects the faults and foibles of recent American foreign policy―explaining why it has been plagued by disasters like the “forever wars” in Iraq and Afghanistan and outlining what can be done to fix it.

In 1992, the United States stood at the pinnacle of world power and Americans were confident that a new era of peace and prosperity was at hand. Twenty-five years later, those hopes have been dashed. Relations with Russia and China have soured, the European Union is wobbling, nationalism and populism are on the rise, and the United States is stuck in costly and pointless wars that have squandered trillions of dollars and undermined its influence around the world.

The root of this dismal record, Walt argues, is the American foreign policy establishment’s stubborn commitment to a strategy of “liberal hegemony.” Since the end of the Cold War, Republicans and Democrats alike have tried to use U.S. power to spread democracy, open markets, and other liberal values into every nook and cranny of the planet. This strategy was doomed to fail, but its proponents in the foreign policy elite were never held accountable and kept repeating the same mistakes.

Donald Trump won the presidency promising to end the misguided policies of the foreign policy “Blob” and to pursue a wiser approach. But his erratic and impulsive style of governing, combined with a deeply flawed understanding of world politics, are making a bad situation worse. The best alternative, Walt argues, is a return to the realist strategy of “offshore balancing,” which eschews regime change, nation-building, and other forms of global social engineering. The American people would surely welcome a more restrained foreign policy, one that allowed greater attention to problems here at home. This long-overdue shift will require abandoning the futile quest for liberal hegemony and building a foreign policy establishment with a more realistic view of American power.

Clear-eyed, candid, and elegantly written, Stephen M. Walt’s The Hell of Good Intentions offers both a compelling diagnosis of America’s recent foreign policy follies and a proven formula for renewed success.

斯蒂芬·马丁·沃尔特 Stephen Martin Walt

https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/smwalt/files/waltcv06.pdf

Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of International Affairs
John F. Kennedy School of Government
Harvard University 

79 John F. Kennedy St.
Cambridge, MA
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Walt

斯蒂芬·马丁·沃尔特（Stephen Martin Walt，1955 年 7 月 2 日出生）是一位美国政治学家，现任哈佛大学肯尼迪学院国际关系学罗伯特和蕾妮·贝尔弗教授。

沃尔特是国际关系现实主义学派的成员，对新现实主义理论做出了重要贡献，创立了威胁平衡理论。 他撰写或合着的书籍包括《联盟的起源》、《革命与战争》、《以色列游说与美国外交政策》。

Stephen Martin Walt (born July 2, 1955) is an American political scientist currently serving as the Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of international relations at the Harvard Kennedy School.

A member of the realist school of international relations, Walt has made important contributions to the theory of neorealism and has authored the balance of threat theory. Books that he has authored or coauthored include Origins of Alliances, Revolution and War, and The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy.

美国的力量和文化

在伊拉克战争 20 周年之际，沃尔特将基于规则的世界秩序描述为“我们（美国）在制定过程中发挥了巨大作用的一套规则，当然，只要不方便，我们就可以随意违反这些规则”。 我们跟随他们。”

沃尔特在 2005 年发表的综合性文章《驯服美国实力》中指出，美国应该“通过谨慎使用军事力量、加强与主要盟友的合作，以及最重要的是，通过重建其主导地位，让其主导地位为其他国家所接受”, 国际形象崩溃。”他建议美国“恢复其作为‘离岸平衡者’的传统角色", "仅在绝对必要时"进行干预，并保持 "尽可能小的军事存在。"

沃尔特在 2011 年末发表于《国家利益》的文章《美国时代的终结》中写道，美国正在失去其世界主导地位。

沃尔特2013年在挪威国防研究所发表演讲，题为“为什么美国外交政策总是失败？” 该研究所后来形容他认为“美国外交政策机构对激进外交政策存在压倒性偏见”和“夸大威胁的倾向，并指出自 2001 年以来被闪电击中的可能性远远大于死于恐怖袭击的可能性"。“他还形容美国缺乏“外交技巧和技巧”，并建议欧洲人“为自己着想，不要依赖美国来解决安全问题的指导或建议”。 最终，他认为“美国根本没有足够的能力来管理世界。”

2013年，沃尔特问道：“为什么美国人如此愿意纳税来支持困扰世界的国家安全机构，却又如此不愿意纳税来拥有更好的学校、医疗保健、道路、桥梁、地铁、公园、博物馆、 图书馆，以及富裕和成功社会的所有其他标志？” 他说，这个问题尤其令人费解，因为“美国是历史上最安全的国家，除非它继续重复过去十年左右的错误，否则它将保持非常安全的状态。”

American power and culture

On the 20th anniversary of the war against Iraq, Walt characterized the rules-based world order as "a set of rules that we [the U.S.] had an enormous role in writing, and of course which we feel free to violate whenever it's inconvenient for us to follow them."

In the comprehensive 2005 article "Taming American Power", Walt argued that the U.S. should "make its dominant position acceptable to others – by using military force sparingly, by fostering greater cooperation with key allies, and, most important of all, by rebuilding its crumbling international image." He proposed for the US to "resume its traditional role as an 'offshore balancer'", to intervene "only when absolutely necessary", and to keep "its military presence as small as possible."

In a late 2011 article for The National Interest, "The End of the American Era", Walt wrote that America is losing its position of world dominance.

Walt gave a speech in 2013 to the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, "Why does US foreign policy keep failing?" The institute later described him as seeing "an overwhelming bias among US foreign policy institutions toward an activist foreign policy" and "a propensity to exaggerate threats, noting the chances of being struck by lightning have been far greater since 2001 than death by terrorist attack." He also characterized the US as lacking "diplomatic skill and finesse" and advised Europeans "to think of themselves and not rely on the US for guidance or advice on solving their security issues." Ultimately, he argued that "the United States is simply not skilled enough to run the world."

In 2013, Walt asked "Why are Americans so willing to pay taxes in order to support a world-girdling national security establishment, yet so reluctant to pay taxes to have better schools, health care, roads, bridges, subways, parks, museums, libraries, and all the other trappings of a wealthy and successful society?" He said that the question was especially puzzling given that "the United States is the most secure power in history and will remain remarkably secure unless it keeps repeating the errors of the past decade or so."

对外政策

作为军事干预主义的批评者，沃尔特表示："鹰派喜欢将军事干预的反对者描绘成‘孤立主义者'，因为他们知道这是一个声名狼藉的政治标签。然而，有一个连贯的理由表明对美国的大战略采取更加超然和有选择性的方法，这也是我们的外交政策体系发挥作用的原因之一 , 很难否认他们的怀疑，如果不是不断地提醒他们远方迫在眉睫的外国危险，许多美国人可能会发现这种怀疑是有说服力的。支持更加克制的大战略的论点绝非愚蠢，而且, 这种方法比新保守派对全球主导地位的幻想或自由派鹰派对改革整个地区无休止的准人道主义努力的喜爱更有意义。"

Foreign policy
A critic of military interventionism, Walt stated: "Hawks like to portray opponents of military intervention as 'isolationist' because they know it is a discredited political label. Yet there is a coherent case for a more detached and selective approach to U.S. grand strategy, and one reason that our foreign policy establishment works so hard to discredit it is their suspicion that a lot of Americans might find it convincing if they weren't constantly being reminded about looming foreign dangers in faraway places. The arguments in favor of a more restrained grand strategy are far from silly, and the approach makes a lot more sense than neoconservatives' fantasies of global primacy or liberal hawks' fondness for endless quasi-humanitarian efforts to reform whole regions."