风萧萧_Frank
以文会友
从矿工到石油巨头，伟大的商品提款机又回来了
托马斯·比舍维尔和哈维尔·布拉斯，彭博新闻
Ben van Beurden，荷兰皇家壳牌公司首席执行官 摄影师：F. Carter Smith/Bloomberg
（彭博社）——就在五年前，英美资源集团陷入了严重的麻烦。 这家自然资源巨头受到大宗商品价格暴跌的困扰，取消了股息，并宣布计划关闭矿山并裁员数千人。 在紧急融资的传言中，其市值跌至不足 30 亿美元。
本周，对于该公司首席执行官马克·库蒂法尼 (Mark Cutifani) 来说，2016 年的考验似乎就像是一个平行宇宙。 在铁矿石和其他大宗商品价格上涨的推动下，他宣布了创纪录的上半年收益和数十亿美元的股息。 任何在英美资源集团股价触底时押注的人都会看到，随着市值飙升至 550 亿美元，股价将上涨 14 倍。
“高商品价格对我们来说非常重要，”库蒂法尼本周早些时候告诉投资者。 “我们认为这还不够好。”
英美资源集团就是其中之一：随着原材料价格飙升，整个自然资源行业正在向股东提供特别股息和回购，矿工、石油钻探公司、贸易公司、钢铁制造商和农民获得了数十亿美元的暴利。 该行业因其对气候变化的影响以及在大型项目上浪费资金的名声而受到投资者的青睐，但它再次成为了一台巨大的提款机。
去年新冠疫情造成的经济低迷带来的反弹推动了大宗商品价格的爆炸性上涨，因为消费者放弃了度假和外出就餐，转而购买实物商品：从庭院取暖器到最先进的电视等各种商品。 政客们也在提供帮助，在资源密集型基础设施项目上投入了数千亿美元。
由近二十几种原材料组成的一揽子商品现货指数本周飙升至 10 年来的新高，并迅速逼近 2011 年创下的纪录。全球石油基准布伦特原油再次飙升至 75 美元上方。 每桶铜价回升至每吨 10,000 美元，欧洲天然气价格达到夏季以来的最高水平，钢铁也以前所未有的水平易手。 玉米、大豆和小麦等农产品也很昂贵。
全球最大炼油商之一瓦莱罗能源公司首席执行官乔·戈尔德本周早些时候表示：“随着全球疫苗接种的增加，需求持续改善。”
即使是动力煤等长期被搁置的大宗商品，也将在 2021 年重获新生。在发电厂燃烧发电的煤炭，加上大量的碳排放，目前的交易价格创下了 10 年来的新高。
虽然大宗商品价格是经济好转的主要原因，但结构性因素也在发挥作用。 矿商和石油公司大幅削减新项目支出，造成供应短缺。 矿业公司首当其冲，因为投资者要求加强纪律，他们从 2015-16 年开始限制投资； 石油公司紧随去年的步伐，一些主要能源公司本周宣布进一步削减 2021 年支出。结果是，虽然需求激增，但供应却没有增加——至少目前是这样。 石油巨头也从欧佩克+石油生产国联盟的工作中受益，该联盟仍然抑制了很大一部分产量。
英美资源集团宣布派发 40 亿美元股息，可能是自然资源行业最引人注目的扭亏为盈的故事，但其利润与规模更大的竞争对手相比仍然相形见绌。 全球两大铁矿石生产商力拓集团和淡水河谷公司上周共同承诺返还超过 170 亿美元的股息。 对于投资者来说，还有更多的事情要做，全球最大的矿业公司必和必拓集团和另一家大型矿业公司和大宗商品交易商嘉能可公司尚未公布报告。
这一次，世界上最大的钢铁制造商不仅能够吸收成本，而且还能转嫁成本。 这个在过去十年的大部分时间里都陷入危机的行业现在也能够回报长期遭受苦难的股东。 中国以外全球最大的钢铁制造商安赛乐米塔尔公司(ArcelorMittal SA)在五年前被迫出售股票并取消股息，本周公布了自2008年以来的最佳业绩，并宣布了22亿美元的股票回购计划。
矿业公司抢走了能源行业的风头，而能源行业历来是自然资源行业最大的股息支付者。
尽管如此，大型石油公司还是从 2020 年历史性的价格暴跌中恢复过来，当时沙特和俄罗斯的恶性价格战和 Covid-19 大流行导致美国石油基准西德克萨斯中质油的价格短暂跌破零。 在石油、天然气，尤其是塑料化学品价格上涨的支撑下，埃克森美孚公司、雪佛龙公司、荷兰皇家壳牌公司和TotalEnergies SE的利润达到了疫情前的水平。 英国石油公司（BP Plc）是五大石油巨头中规模最小的一家，将于下周公布业绩。
随着现金流激增，壳牌去年自二战以来首次削减股息，但现在却将股息提高了近 40%，并宣布追加 20 亿美元的回购计划。 我们对现金流充满信心。”壳牌首席执行官本·范伯登 (Ben van Beurden) 表示。 雪佛龙和道达尔也宣布将购买股票。 不过，埃克森美孚仍在舔舐伤口，专注于偿还债务。
更加不透明的大宗商品交易世界也从中获利。嘉能可本周表示，预计交易利润将高于预期，全球最大的两家石油贸易商竞争对手维多集团(Vitol Group)和托克集团(Trafigura Group)也受益于石油价格飙升带来的利润丰厚的机会。 价格。
农产品贸易商利用价格上涨和中国异常强劲的需求获利。 全球最大的大豆压榨商邦吉有限公司 (Bunge Ltd.) 告诉投资者，该公司预计将实现自二十年前首次公开募股以来的最佳每股收益。 美国另一家大型谷物贸易商和加工商阿彻-丹尼尔斯-米德兰公司(Archer-Daniels-Midland Co.)也公布了强劲的收益。 全球最大的农产品贸易商嘉吉公司 (Cargill Inc.) 的 2021 财年盈利将创下历史新高。
自然资源繁荣是否能够持续存在着激烈的争论。 许多投资者担心气候变化使该行业的长期未来难以预测，他们还担心高管们倾向于在周期高峰期批准昂贵的项目。 矿业高管担心中国的需求将在某个时候放缓，尤其是铁矿石。 但目前投资的缺乏可能会支撑铜和石油等其他大宗商品。
但壳牌的范伯登本周早些时候总结了看涨情况：“供应将受到限制，而需求实际上相当强劲”。
From Miners to Big Oil, the Great Commodity Cash Machine is Back
Jul 31, 2021
Thomas Biesheuvel and Javier Blas, Bloomberg News
Ben van Beurden, chief executive officer of Royal Dutch Shell Photographer: F. Carter Smith/Bloomberg , Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) -- Just over five years ago Anglo American Plc was in deep trouble. The natural resources giant, beset by a collapse in commodity prices, scrapped its dividend and announced plans to close mines and cut thousands of workers. Amid talk of an emergency capital raise, its market value fell to less than $3 billion.
This week, the trials of 2016 probably seemed like a parallel universe to its Chief Executive Officer Mark Cutifani. Fueled by a rally in iron ore and other commodity prices, he announced record first-half earnings and billions in dividends. Anyone who took a punt on Anglo’s shares when they reached their nadir, would have seen a 14-fold increase as the market capititalization soared to $55 billion.
“High commodity prices have been very important to us,” Cutifani told investors earlier this week. “We don’t think this is as good as it gets.”
Anglo American is one of many: with raw materials prices surging, the whole natural resources sector is showering shareholders with special dividends and buybacks as miners, oil drillers, trading houses, steelmakers and farmers reap billions in windfall profits. The sector, marked down by investors because of its contribution to climate change and a reputation of squandering money on mega-projects, is again a great cash-machine.
The economic rebound from last year’s Covid slump has powered an explosive rally in commodity prices as consumers forgo vacations and dining out and spend their money loading up on physical goods instead: everything from patio heaters to start-of-the art TVs. Politicians are helping, too, lavishing hundreds of billions on resource-heavy infrastructure projects.
The Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, a basket of nearly two dozen raw materials, surged to a 10-year high this week and is rapidly closing in on the record set in 2011. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, has again surged above $75 a barrel, copper is headed back toward $10,000 a ton, European natural gas is at its highest ever for the summer season, and steel is changing hands at unprecedented levels. Agricultural commodities such as corn, soybeans and wheat are also expensive.
“Demand continues to improve with increasing global vaccinations,” Joe Gorder, the chief executive of Valero Energy Corp., one of the world’s largest oil refiners, said earlier this week.
Even commodities long left for dead, like thermal coal, are enjoying a new life in 2021. Coal, burned in power stations to produce electricity, together with huge volumes of carbon emissions, is trading at a 10-year high.
While commodities prices are the main reason behind the turnaround, there are structural factors at play as well. Miners and oil companies have cut spending in new projects savagely, creating a supply shortfall. The miners were first, as they curbed investment from 2015-16 as investors demanded more discipline; oil companies followed up last year and some major energy companies this week announced further cuts in spending for 2021. The result is that while demand is surging, supply isn’t -- at least for now. The oil majors are benefiting too from the work of the OPEC+ alliance of oil producers, which is still holding back a large share of output.
Anglo American, which announced $4 billion in dividends, is probably the most remarkable turnaround story in the natural resources sector, but its profits were still dwarfed by its bigger rivals. Rio Tinto Group and Vale SA, the world’s two leading iron ore miners, together vowed to hand back more than $17 billion in dividends last week. There’s still more to come for investors, with both BHP Group, the world’s biggest miner, and Glencore Plc, another big miner and commodity trader, yet to report.
And for once, the world’s biggest steelmakers were not only able to absorb the costs, but pass them on. An industry that has spent much of the last decade in crisis is now also able to reward long suffering shareholders. The world’s largest steel maker outside China, ArcelorMittal SA, that was forced to sell shares and scrap its dividend just five years ago, posted its best results since 2008 this week and announced a $2.2 billion share buyback program.
The miners have stolen the spotlight from the energy industry, traditionally the biggest dividend payer in the natural resources industry.
Still, Big Oil recovered from the historic price collapse of 2020, when a vicious Saudi-Russian price war and the Covid-19 pandemic briefly sent the value of West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. oil benchmark, below zero. Supported by rising oil, natural gas, and, above all, the chemicals that go into plastics, Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc, and TotalEnergies SE delivered profits that went to pre-covid levels. BP Plc, the smallest of the top five oil majors, will report results next week.
With cash flow surging, Shell, which last year cut its dividend for the first time since the Second World War, was able to hike it nearly 40%, and announced an additional $2 billion in buybacks.“We wanted to signal to the market the confidence that we have in cash flows,” Shell CEO Ben van Beurden said. Chevron and Total also announced they will buy shares. Exxon, though, is still licking its wounds and focused on paying down debt.
The more opaque world of commodity trading has also cashed in. Glencore said this week that it was expecting bigger trading profits than forecast, with rivals Vitol Group and Trafigura Group, two of the world’s largest oil traders, also benefiting from lucrative opportunities created by rocketing prices.
The agricultural traders have cashed on higher prices and unusually strong demand from China. Bunge Ltd., a trader that’s the world’s largest crusher of soybeans, told investors it expected to deliver its best earnings-per-share since its initial public offer two decades ago. Archer-Daniels-Midland Co., another big American grain trader and processor, also flagged strong earnings. And Cargill Inc., the world’s largest agricultural trader, is heading toward record earnings in its 2021 fiscal year.
Whether the natural resources boom can last is hotly contested. Many investors worry climate change makes the long-term future of the industry hard to read and they also fret about the tendency of executives to approve expensive projects at the peak of the cycle. Mining executives fear Chinese demand will slow down at some point, hitting iron ore in particular. But the current lack of investments may support other commodities, like copper and oil.
But Shell’s Van Beurden summed up the bullish case earlier this week: “Supply is going to be constrained and demand is actually quite strong”.
