At a time of heightened uncertainties for the global economy, India’s strong performance remains a bright spot. So, it’s fitting that Group of Twenty finance ministers and central bank governors will gather in Bengaluru this week.
This will be another challenging year. But it could represent a turning point—with inflation declining and growth bottoming out. Indeed, while our latest projections show global growth slowing to 2.9 percent this year, we anticipate a modest rebound to 3.1 percent in 2024.
Look behind the headline numbers and we see emerging market and developing economies providing much of the momentum. We expect them to account for about four-fifths of global growth this year, with India alone expected to contribute more than 15 percent.
But beyond its role as a global growth engine, India is uniquely positioned to bring countries together.
看看标题数字的背后，我们看到新兴市场和发展中经济体提供了很大的动力。 我们预计它们将占今年全球增长的五分之四左右，仅印度就预计贡献超过 15%。
但除了作为全球增长引擎的角色之外，印度还处于将各国团结在一起的独特地位。
In a world facing multiple challenges and rising geopolitical tensions, this leadership is critical—and beautifully captured in the theme of India’s G20 presidency: One Earth, One Family, One Future.
Let me share my view of what this spirit of “one” represents for policymakers and for all of us as a global community.
First, one family means solidarity and protecting the vulnerable.
The reality is that growth is still subpar and price pressures are still too high. And, after three years of shocks, too many economies and people are still hurting badly.
在一个面临多重挑战和地缘政治紧张局势加剧的世界中，这种领导力至关重要——印度担任 G20 主席国的主题得到了很好的体现：同一个地球、同一个家庭、同一个未来。
让我分享一下我对这种“一个”精神对决策者和全球社会所有人的意义的看法。
首先，一个家庭意味着团结和保护弱势群体。
现实是增长仍然低于平均水平，价格压力仍然过高。 而且，在经历了三年的冲击之后，太多的经济体和人民仍在遭受重创。
Around the world, many households struggle to make ends meet because of the high cost of living. Millions cannot afford fuel for heating or cooking. Successive shocks have increased poverty, jeopardizing decades of progress. And, notwithstanding some easing in food prices, a record 349 million people in 79 countries face acute food insecurity.
Supporting the vulnerable is vital in all countries.
Fiscal measures should be temporary and laser-focused on protecting those who are most in need—always good practice, but even more important as countries grapple with increasingly limited resources and higher debt. In most countries, targeted measures need to be coupled with gradual fiscal tightening to rebuild buffers and ensure debt sustainability.
在世界各地，许多家庭因高昂的生活成本而难以维持生计。 数百万人买不起取暖或做饭的燃料。 接连不断的冲击加剧了贫困，危及数十年的进步。 而且，尽管食品价格有所缓和，但 79 个国家/地区创纪录的 3.49 亿人面临严重的粮食不安全。
支持弱势群体在所有国家都至关重要。
财政措施应该是临时性的，并集中精力保护那些最需要帮助的人——这始终是良好做法，但随着各国努力应对日益有限的资源和更高的债务，这一措施更为重要。 在大多数国家，有针对性的措施需要与逐步财政紧缩相结合，以重建缓冲并确保债务可持续性。
Meanwhile, bringing inflation back to target remains imperative. To get there, policymakers need to stay the course on monetary tightening. Aligning fiscal and monetary policies will help. Clear communication of these policy goals is vital to avoid a sudden repricing in financial markets.
While the global tightening cycle is necessary to ensure price stability, policymakers must be mindful of adverse spillovers to emerging and developing economies—including through a stronger US dollar and capital outflows. While financial conditions have improved since the G20 last met, providing some modest relief, we have seen how higher borrowing costs exacerbate the vulnerability of economies with heavy external debt burdens.
与此同时，使通胀回到目标水平仍然势在必行。 为实现这一目标，政策制定者需要坚持货币紧缩政策。 调整财政和货币政策将有所帮助。 明确传达这些政策目标对于避免金融市场突然重新定价至关重要。
虽然全球紧缩周期对于确保价格稳定是必要的，但政策制定者必须注意对新兴和发展中经济体的不利溢出效应——包括美元走强和资本外流。 尽管自 G20 上次会议以来金融状况有所改善，提供了一定程度的缓解，但我们已经看到借贷成本上升如何加剧外债负担沉重的经济体的脆弱性。
About 15 percent of low-income countries are in debt distress and an additional 45 percent are at high risk of debt distress. And among emerging economies, about 25 percent are at high risk and facing “default-like” borrowing spreads.
Here, solidarity means better mechanisms to restructure debt. Under the G20’s Common Framework, Chad reached an agreement with its creditors at the end of last year, and Zambia and Ghana are progressing toward debt resolution. But the ground rules need to be clarified and the processes made more efficient and effective.
大约 15% 的低收入国家处于债务困境之中，另有 45% 处于债务困境的高风险之中。 在新兴经济体中，约 25% 的经济体处于高风险中，面临着“类似违约”的借贷利差。
在这里，团结意味着更好的债务重组机制。 在G20的共同框架下，乍得去年年底与债权人达成协议，赞比亚和加纳正在推进债务解决。 但需要澄清基本规则，并使流程更加高效和有效。
To accelerate debt restructuring efforts, the IMF, World Bank, and India’s G20 presidency are convening a new Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable. This week in Bengaluru, we will meet in?person for the first time—and pave the way for creditors, both public and private, and debtor countries to work together, assess the existing shortcomings and best ways to tackle them.
In this more shock-prone world, some emerging and developing economies will also require additional financial support. So, a well-resourced global financial safety net, with the IMF at its center, is more important than ever.
为加快债务重组工作，国际货币基金组织、世界银行和 G20 轮值主席国印度正在召开新的全球主权债务圆桌会议。 本周在班加罗尔，我们将首次面对面会面——并为公共和私人债权人以及债务国共同努力铺平道路，评估现有的缺点和解决这些问题的最佳方法。
在这个更加容易受到冲击的世界中，一些新兴和发展中经济体也将需要额外的金融支持。 因此，以国际货币基金组织为中心的资源充足的全球金融安全网比以往任何时候都更加重要。
Think of how the Fund has stepped up to support our family of nations since the start of the pandemic. Over $272 billion for 94 countries of which about $34 billion was fast-disbursing emergency financing. The historic SDR allocation of $650 billion to boost our members’ reserves. And a new Food Shock Window provides fast access to resources for countries hit hardest by the food security crisis.
Now, further solidarity is needed to stand as one with the low-income and vulnerable members of our family to ensure they can still access concessional IMF financing in times of distress and to guard against future crises. Others with the strength and capacity to do so need to stand up and help address fundraising shortfalls—especially on subsidy resources in the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust—and deliver additional contributions to the new Resilience and Sustainability Trust. This also means determination to advance the 16th General Review of Quotas so we can complete it by the end of the year.
想一想自大流行开始以来，基金组织是如何加紧支持我们的国际大家庭的。 为 94 个国家提供了超过 2720 亿美元的资金，其中约 340 亿美元用于快速支付紧急融资。 历史性的 6500 亿美元特别提款权分配用于增加我们成员国的储备。 新的粮食冲击窗口为受粮食安全危机打击最严重的国家提供了快速获取资源的途径。
现在，我们需要进一步团结起来，与我们家庭中的低收入和弱势成员站在一起，以确保他们在困难时期仍能获得国际货币基金组织的优惠融资，并防范未来的危机。 其他有实力和能力这样做的人需要挺身而出，帮助解决筹款短缺问题——尤其是在减贫和增长信托基金的补贴资源方面——并为新的复原力和可持续性信托基金提供更多捐款。 这也意味着决心推进第十六次份额总检查，力争年底前完成。
Second, one earth means protecting our planet, our home.
We are witness to the increasingly severe and pervasive effects of climate change — an existential threat to humanity that we can only fight as a collective. We must band together as one family in defense of our one earth.
Our collective goal of delivering on the Paris Agreement and boosting resilience will require policies that can help redirect trillions of dollars towards green projects. Consider smarter regulation, price signals and well targeted subsidies that incentivize low-carbon investment or financial innovations that mobilize more private capital.
第二，一个地球意味着保护我们的星球，我们的家园。
我们见证了气候变化日益严重和普遍的影响——这是对人类生存的威胁，我们只能作为一个集体来应对。 我们必须像一个家庭一样团结起来保卫我们的同一个地球。
我们实现《巴黎协定》和增强韧性的共同目标将需要能够帮助将数万亿美元重新用于绿色项目的政策。 考虑更明智的监管、价格信号和针对性强的补贴，以激励低碳投资或调动更多私人资本的金融创新。
Here the IMF’s advice and financial support is working in tandem to mitigate the massive climate-related risks to economic and financial stability. The first wave of pilot countries accessing the Resilience and Sustainability Trust demonstrate how we are helping vulnerable countries set up the right policies and create an environment conducive to climate-friendly investments. Alongside this, we are coordinating with others—including multilateral development banks and the private sector—who have a key role to play in reducing investment risks.
To be sure, there are signs of progress, as major economies realign their fiscal frameworks to accelerate the green transition. But policies should stay focused on that transition—rather than providing a competitive advantage to domestic firms. “Green subsidies” for early-stage technologies can be helpful—look at how they lowered the global price of solar energy. They must, however, be carefully designed to avoid wasteful spending or trade tensions, and to make sure that technology is shared with the developing world.
在这里，国际货币基金组织的建议和金融支持协同工作，以减轻与经济和金融稳定相关的巨大气候相关风险。 第一波获得复原力和可持续性信托基金的试点国家展示了我们如何帮助脆弱国家制定正确的政策并创造有利于气候友好型投资的环境。 除此之外，我们正在与其他机构（包括多边开发银行和私营部门）进行协调，他们在降低投资风险方面发挥着关键作用。
可以肯定的是，随着主要经济体重新调整其财政框架以加速绿色转型，取得了进展的迹象。 但政策应继续关注这种转变——而不是为国内企业提供竞争优势。 对早期技术的“绿色补贴”可能会有帮助——看看它们如何降低太阳能的全球价格。 然而，它们必须经过精心设计，以避免浪费开支或贸易紧张局势，并确保与发展中国家共享技术。
In other words, we must not slide into protectionism. This would make it even more difficult for poorer countries to access new technologies and support the green transition.
The health of our earth is essential to our future. But it is not the only ingredient.
One future means ensuring everyone can prosper.
In an era of technological transformation, how policymakers manage the potential of digital progress can be central to a fair and inclusive future. Think of the revenue and compliance gains from digital tax administration; greater transparency through online procurement that helps fight corruption; and the accountability of digital public financial management systems that can strengthen the social contract.
换句话说，我们不能滑入保护主义。 这将使较贫穷的国家更难获得新技术和支持绿色转型。
地球的健康对我们的未来至关重要。 但它不是唯一的成分。
一个未来意味着确保每个人都能繁荣昌盛。
在技术转型的时代，政策制定者如何管理数字进步的潜力对于一个公平和包容的未来至关重要。 想想数字税务管理带来的收入和合规收益； 通过有助于打击腐败的在线采购提高透明度； 以及可以加强社会契约的数字公共财政管理系统的问责制。
India’s Unified Payments Interface is an excellent example of technology boosting financial inclusion. Last month alone, this layer of India’s digital public infrastructure processed over 8 billion transactions. And that system allows 400 million people in rural areas to participate with legacy ‘push-button’ cellphones.
This is just the beginning. Most IMF member countries are now actively evaluating central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) that could bring substantial benefits, such as more resilient payments in disaster-prone countries and greater financial inclusion. India has conducted an in-depth assessment of CBDCs, which could inform similar studies elsewhere, accelerating digital progress worldwide.
印度的统一支付接口是技术促进金融包容性的一个很好的例子。 仅上个月，印度数字公共基础设施的这一层就处理了超过 80 亿笔交易。 该系统允许农村地区的 4 亿人使用传统的“按钮”手机参与。
这仅仅是个开始。 大多数 IMF 成员国现在都在积极评估中央银行数字货币 (CBDC)，这些货币可以带来实质性好处，例如在易受灾害的国家中更具弹性的支付和更大的金融包容性。 印度对 CBDC 进行了深入评估，这可以为其他地方的类似研究提供信息，从而加速全球数字化进程。
Yet any new financial technology also comes with risks.
The recent collapse of some prominent crypto exchanges has intensified concerns about market integrity and user protection. That is why we need the right policies—for example, to strengthen financial regulation and develop global standards that can apply evenly across borders. The IMF’s work on crypto assets is particularly focused on macro-financial policies.
The idea of maximizing upsides while avoiding missteps lies at the heart of the IMF’s capacity development work. Our objective is to be a transmission line of best practice across our entire membership.
This spirit of “one” should guide us as we move forward.
然而，任何新的金融技术也伴随着风险。
最近一些知名加密货币交易所的倒闭加剧了人们对市场诚信和用户保护的担忧。 这就是为什么我们需要正确的政策——例如，加强金融监管和制定可以跨境均匀适用的全球标准。 国际货币基金组织在加密资产方面的工作特别侧重于宏观金融政策。
最大限度地发挥优势同时避免失误的想法是基金组织能力建设工作的核心。 我们的目标是成为我们所有会员的最佳实践传输线。
这种“一”的精神应该指引我们前进。
To achieve the goals of ‘One Earth, One Family, One Future’, we need to find common ground even as geopolitical tensions are rising. And we need to steer clear of zero-sum policies that would only leave the world poorer and less secure.
As Indian Nobel Laureate Rabindranath Tagore once said: “ You can’t cross the sea merely by standing and staring at the water .”
For G20 policymakers, this means having the courage to take the right actions, steering the ship we are all on to safe harbor.
为了实现“一个地球、一个家庭、一个未来”的目标，我们需要在地缘政治紧张局势加剧的情况下找到共同点。 我们需要避免只会让世界变得更贫穷和更不安全的零和政策。
正如印度诺贝尔奖得主罗宾德拉纳特·泰戈尔曾经说过的那样：“仅仅站着凝视海水是无法渡过大海的。”
对于 G20 决策者来说，这意味着要有勇气采取正确的行动，将我们所有人的船驶向安全港。
