US politico 张忠谋美国半导体制造瞎扯淡不如投资台湾

张忠谋：美国发展半导体制造业，不如投资中国台湾！

2023-02-15 18:45

https://www.sohu.com/a/641236264_128469

2月15日消息，据美国媒体Politico报道，2022年8月，美国众议院议长佩洛西（Nancy Pelosi）窜访中国台湾期间，台积电创始人张忠谋、董事长刘德音受邀参加了欢迎午宴。当时，张忠谋与佩洛西就美国积极发展半导体制造业交换了看法。

张忠谋对裴洛西表示，欢迎美国的《芯片与科学法案》及配套的527亿美元的半导体制造补贴计划，“520亿美元，这是一个好的开始。很高兴台积电可以从补贴中受益，台积电已经在亚利桑那州进行了一个重大的建设项目。但问题在于美国真的认为这样就可以买下强大的芯片制造业吗？”

在张忠谋看来，美国要借助提供补助来建立自给自足的半导体产业，未来还有很长的路要走。因为，半导体芯片制造极其复杂，需要大量高素质的人才，同时也需要长期持续的投资。如果美国以为靠砸大钱就可以抢进全球最复杂的电子制造市场，那就太天真了。因此，美国与其想要打造可信赖的半导体产业，更应该持续投资中国台湾。因为美国当前想要做的，中国台湾早已经完备。

张忠谋当时还强调称，半导体产业发展迅速，就算美国现阶段大量投资建设高质量的先进晶圆厂，未来也还要花更多钱来持续进行更新。否则，美国就只是单次的投资，造成的就只是拥有现在最先进的硬件设备而已。

裴洛西也指出，张忠谋很了解美国，也提到部分的问题的确是美国的挑战。但是，裴洛西告诉张忠谋，美国知道自己在做什么，“我们决心要成功，这将是一个好的开始”。

台湾《联合报》提及，张忠谋的太太张淑芬一度打断张忠谋让他别讲这么久；在场的蔡英文则称，张忠谋快人快语，一向敢言。

而据台湾《联合报》报道，张忠谋还称，半导体产业发展快速，即便美国现在大量投资建设高质量的工厂，未来还要花更多钱维持更新，否则，美国就只是现在拥有最先进的硬件设备；单次投资是不够的。

张忠谋谈美国芯片策略：太天真了但是好的开始

半导体行业观察 2023年02月15日 10:24:16 来自北京

编译自politico，芯片制造巨头台积电的 91 岁创始人张忠谋在之前台湾举办的一次午餐会上，就美国正在出现的新产业政策向南希佩洛西和其他来访的美国立法者发表了尖锐的评价。

在此前未被详细报道的评论中，张忠谋将矛头对准了 CHIPS 和科学法案及其 520 亿美元的半导体制造补贴计划。

佩洛西在最近的一次采访中告诉politico，在麻省理工学院和斯坦福大学接受过培训的工程师张忠谋和她的交流以一句轻松的话开始。

“500 亿美元——好吧，这是一个好的开始，”（原话：“Fifty billion dollars – well, that’s a good start）根据她的回忆。包括佩洛西在内的四名出席会议的人表示，很快就可以看出张不是开玩笑的。

这位亿万富翁企业家向佩洛西提出了关于 CHIPS 法的发人深省的问题——以及该政策是代表对支持先进产业的真正承诺，还是美国企图在一个利润丰厚的全球市场夺取一部分利益的冲动。

张忠谋说他很高兴他的公司可以从补贴中受益；台积电已经在亚利桑那州进行了一项重大开发项目。但美国真的认为它可以像那样给自己买下一个强大的芯片制造产业吗？

这个问题现在笼罩着拜登政府，因为它准备实施 CHIPS 和科学法案中的半导体支出。下一阶段将于本月开始，届时商务部将公布补贴发放的详细流程。对拜登来说，这项法律已经看起来像是一个有用的政治战利品，在他的国情咨文中也占有一席之地。

用拜登的话来说，这项法律象征着他致力于创造未来的就业机会，并保护美国经济免受可能造成的破坏。拜登告诉国会，向芯片制造提供补贴将“确保美国的供应链始于美国”。

但这远非一个确定的赌注。正如张忠谋告诉佩洛西的那样，削减政府支票与在美国建立自给自足的芯片产业之间还有很长的距离。

他粗略地指出了拜登的半导体政策如果要取得成功就必须应对的挑战，尤其在直接的政治宣传已经消退很久之后，这将远远超过其对大企业的慷慨补贴已经用完的时间点。

张忠谋在于佩洛西的午餐警告说，如果美国认为它可以迅速花钱进入世界上最复杂的电子制造市场之一，那就太天真了。他说，制造半导体芯片的任务是几乎不可能的复杂，仅仅为了获得原材料就需要大量的劳动力，而且在制造工厂的建造和芯片本身的组装过程中都需要微观精度。

该行业以惊人的速度发展，张忠谋继续说道。即使美国以佩洛西所支持的支出成功建造了一些高质量的工厂，它也必须不断加大投资以保持这些设施的更新。否则，他说，美国人很快就会发现自己拥有价值数百亿美元的过时硬件。千载难逢的现金注入是不够的。

张忠谋同时说道，如果美国想要一个它可以依赖的半导体产业，那么它应该继续投资于台湾。毕竟，他的公司很久以前就完善了美国人现在试图自己设计的东西。

随着一道道小盘子来来去去，张忠谋的演讲持续了很长时间，以至于他的妻子 Sophie 在某一时刻插话，认为他说得太多了。

笔者表示，佩洛西是唯一一个同意与其公开谈论张忠谋演讲的人，她也是唯一一个听上去对张对美国作为半导体贸易基地的怀疑不以为然的人。

“他非常了解美国，”她说，“他提出的问题我几乎都认为是一个回应的机会，即使其中有些问题具有挑战性。”

与我交谈过的其他人不同，佩洛西说她并没有因为张的语言严厉而退缩。她多次称赞张是“标志性人物”：“我非常敬畏他。”

但佩洛西说，她也传达了她自己的坚定信息：“我们知道我们在做什么，我们决心要成功——这是一个好的开始。”

佩洛西承认，在场的其他台湾高管表示犹豫，一些人质疑美国的环境和劳动法是否符合培育成熟产业的目标。在我们的谈话中，她否认了她的政党宏伟的经济和社会抱负与 CHIPS 法的狭隘目标之间可能存在紧张关系的想法。

张忠谋自然不是美国半导体努力的无私观察者。他的公司是一个独特的全球力量；它在高科技供应链中的压倒性重要性已成为台湾的重要战略资产。

张忠谋在其他场合质疑美国是否适合半导体制造，指出劳动力缺口和商业文化缺陷。在去年由布鲁金斯学会主持的播客中，张忠谋感叹美国缺乏“制造业人才”，因为几代雄心勃勃的美国人转而涌向金融和互联网公司。（“我真的不认为这对美国来说是件坏事，事实上，”他说，“但对于试图在美国进行半导体制造来说，这是一件坏事”）

在 8 月的午餐时间重复了该批评的一个版本，促使佩洛西代表团的一名成员，众议员Raja Krishnamoorthi大声疾呼，并敦促张忠谋访问 Krishnamoorthi 的家乡伊利诺伊州，以更好地了解美国劳动力，但张没有表示他对邀请感兴趣。

当我向几位拜登政府官员询问张的批评时，我得到的信息是听起来很自信的“敬请期待”。他们说，CHIPS 实施的下一阶段将更详细地揭示该法律将如何用于释放私营部门投资的洪流，并使美国的半导体制造成为一个稳固的、长期的企业。他们没有否认 Chang 对当前美国劳动力的担忧，而是指出美国的科技中心，如硅谷和北卡罗来纳州的研究三角区，作为我们确实知道如何在这个国家建立充满活力、人员齐全的科技中心的证据。现在，他们说，我们需要建造更多。

在与佩洛西共进午餐后不久，张访问了一个有望成为这些枢纽之一的地区。在亚利桑那州，他在凤凰城北部的一个大型建筑工地与拜登会合，台积电正在那里建造一个庞大的综合体，这可能与张对法律的总体怀疑态度形成鲜明对比。他的公司在拜登成为总统之前制定了亚利桑那州项目计划，但在 CHIPS 法通过后，台积电宣布将大幅增加对该州的投资——从 120 亿美元增加到 400 亿美元——并在那里建造第二家工厂。

最终结果将是一个制造中心，该中心有望为苹果和其他美国科技公司供货，在恰好也是主要选举战场的州雇用数千人。并非偶然，它可能有资格获得美国补贴。

拜登在去年 12 月表示，这不仅仅是一个良好的开端。他在凤凰城宣布，美国“在未来几年比任何其他国家都更有能力引领世界经济——如果我们保持专注的话。”

张忠谋本可以告诉拜登这是一个很大的“如果”。

CONGRESS MINUTES PRO &E NEWS SEARCH

Magazine COLUMN | TOMORROW

Taiwan's Tech King to Nancy Pelosi: U.S. Is in Over Its Head

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/14/taiwan-tech-king-pelosi-powerhouse-microchip-industry-00082646

"Fifty billion dollars – well, that's a good start,” quipped the 91-year-old Morris Chang, warning that Washington’s new bipartisan industrial policy may not add up.

Nancy Pelosi, center, is pictured arriving at the Legislative Yuan, Taiwan's house of parliament.
Nancy Pelosi arrives at the Legislative Yuan, Taiwan's house of parliament, on August 03, 2022 in Taipei, Taiwan. | Annabelle Chih/Getty Images

By ALEXANDER BURNS 02/14/2023 04:30 AM EST

Alexander Burns is an associate editor for global politics at POLITICO. His Tomorrow column explores the future of politics and policy debates that cross national lines.

Nancy Pelosi arrived in Taiwan like a juggernaut. She defied threats from the Chinese regime in order to visit the island and ignored American generals who saw the trip as a reckless provocation. Ecstatic crowds greeted her at the airport and her hotel. Nothing, it seemed, could slow her down.

And then she met Morris Chang.

Chang, the 91-year-old founder of the chipmaking goliath TSMC, used a luncheon at Taiwan’s presidential palace to deliver a biting soliloquy to Pelosi and other visiting American lawmakers about the new industrial policy emerging in the United States. In comments that have not previously been reported in detail, Chang took aim at the CHIPS and Science Act and its $52 billion package of subsidies for semiconductor manufacturing.

Pelosi told me in a recent interview that Chang, an engineer trained at MIT and Stanford, began with a light remark.

“Fifty billion dollars – well, that’s a good start,” Chang said, according to her recollection.

Four people present for the meeting, including Pelosi, said it quickly became evident that Chang was not in a kidding mood.

With Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, looking on, the billionaire entrepreneur pressed Pelosi with sobering questions about the CHIPS law — and whether the policy represented a genuine commitment to supporting advanced industry or an impulsive attempt by the United States to seize a piece of a lucrative global market.

Chang said he was pleased that his company could benefit from the subsidies; TSMC already had a major development project underway in Arizona. But did the United States really think it could buy itself a powerhouse chipmaking industry, just like that?

That very question now hangs over the Biden administration as it prepares to implement the semiconductor spending in the CHIPS and Science Act. The next phase is due to begin this month with the unveiling by the Commerce Department of a detailed process for awarding subsidies. The law already looks like a useful political trophy for Biden, claiming a prominent spot in his State of the Union Address.

The law is an emblem, in Biden’s telling, of his commitment to creating the jobs of the future and armoring America’s economy against the disruptions that an increasingly militant China could inflict, potentially by attacking Taiwan. Pouring subsidies into chip fabrication would “make sure the supply chain for America begins in America,” Biden told Congress.

That is far from a sure bet. As Chang told Pelosi, there is a long distance between the cutting of government checks and the creation of a self-sustaining chips industry in the United States.

His candid concerns represent a rough guide to the challenges Biden’s semiconductor policy will have to address if it is to succeed, long after the immediate political fanfare has abated — and well past the point that its generous subsidies for big business have run out.

Over lunch, Chang warned that it was terribly naïve of the United States to think that it could rapidly spend its way into one of the most complex electronics-manufacturing markets in the world. The task of making semiconductor chips was almost impossibly complicated, he said, demanding Herculean labors merely to obtain the raw materials involved and requiring microscopic precision in the construction of fabrication plants and then in the assembly of the chips themselves.

Was the United States really up to that job?

The industry evolves at incredible speed, Chang continued. Even if the United States managed to build some high-quality factories with the spending Pelosi championed, it would have to keep investing more and more to keep those facilities up to date. Otherwise, he said, Americans would in short order find themselves with tens of billions of dollars’ worth of outdated hardware. A once-in-a-generation infusion of cash would not be enough.

Was America really prepared to keep up?

If the United States wanted a semiconductor industry it could rely on, Chang said, then it should keep investing in the security of Taiwan. After all, his company had long ago perfected what Americans were now trying to devise on their own.

As course upon course of small plates came and went, Chang’s discourse ran on so long that his wife, Sophie, cut in at one point with a terse interjection; Chang told the group she thought he was talking too much. Tsai, observing the whole exchange, noted to Pelosi and the other Americans that Chang had a reputation for always speaking his mind.

Several people described Chang’s remarks on condition of anonymity in order to discuss a sensitive private meeting. Indeed, the only person who agreed to speak with me about it on the record was Pelosi. She was also the only one who sounded untroubled by Chang’s skepticism about the United States as a home for the semiconductor trade.

Biden signs CHIPS and Science bill, boosting semiconductor production

“He knows America quite well,” she said, “and the questions he asked I saw almost as an opportunity to respond, even if some of it was challenging.”

Unlike other people I spoke to, Pelosi said she was not put off by the severity of Chang’s language. Lauding Chang as an “iconic figure,” she told me several times: “I was in such awe of him.”

But Pelosi said she had also delivered a firm message of her own: “That we knew what we were doing, that we were determined to succeed with it – that it was a good start.”

Other Taiwanese executives present voiced hesitation, Pelosi acknowledged, with some questioning whether American environmental and labor laws were consistent with the goal of nurturing a sophisticated industry. In our conversation, she rejected the idea that there might be tensions between her political party’s grand economic and social aspirations, and the narrower aims of the CHIPS law.

Chang, naturally, is not a disinterested observer of the American semiconductor effort. His company is a singular global power; its overwhelming importance in the high-tech supply chain has become a vital strategic asset for Taiwan as it gathers allies in an age of deepening conflict with the Chinese Communist Party. If China blockaded or invaded the island, the impact on TSMC’s operations alone would convulse the international economy. That is a strong incentive for wealthy democracies to defend Taiwan with more than blandishments about self-determination.

Chang has questioned in other settings whether the United States is a suitable environment for semiconductor manufacturing, pointing to gaps in the workforce and defects in the business culture. On a podcast hosted by the Brookings Institution last year, Chang lamented what he called a lack of “manufacturing talents” in the United States, owing to generations of ambitious Americans flocking to finance and internet companies instead. (“I don’t really think it’s a bad thing for the United States, actually,” he said, “but it’s a bad thing for trying to do semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S.”)

He repeated a version of that critique over lunch in August, prompting one member of Pelosi’s delegation, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, to speak up and urge Chang to visit Krishnamoorthi’s home state of Illinois to get a better sense of the American workforce. Chang did not indicate he was tempted by the invitation.

When I asked several Biden administration officials about Chang’s criticism, the message I got back was a confident-sounding “stay tuned.” The next stage of CHIPS implementation, they said, would reveal in more detail how the law would be used to unlock a torrent of private-sector investment and make American semiconductor fabrication a sturdy, long-range enterprise. They did not reject Chang’s concerns about the current U.S. workforce, but pointed to American tech hubs like Silicon Valley and North Carolina’s Research Triangle as evidence that we do know how to build dynamic, fully staffed tech hubs in this country. Now, they said, we need to build more of them.

Not long after his luncheon with Pelosi, Chang visited an area that figures to become one of those hubs. In Arizona, he joined Biden at a vast construction site in north Phoenix where TSMC is building a gargantuan complex that may stand as something of a counterpoint to Chang’s overarching skepticism about the law. His company mapped out plans for an Arizona project before Biden became president, but after the passage of the CHIPS law TSMC announced it would massively increase its investment in the state — from $12 billion to $40 billion — and build a second facility there, too.

风萧萧_Frank

US politico 张忠谋 美国半导体制造瞎扯淡 不如投资台湾