Damir Sagolj/Reuters
习近平在人民大会堂唱国歌。与特朗普不同，习近平极少即兴讲话。
北京——两人上台的时候都誓言要恢复国家的伟大荣光。但是作为政治人物，美国这位喧闹的、喜欢即兴发挥的候任总统唐纳德·J·特朗普(Donald J. Trump)和中国那位有城府、言行审慎的国家主席习近平形成了鲜明的对比，给两国政府之间的关系注入了新的不可预测性。
“在美中关系这出大戏里，我想不出有比这更截然不同的两个人物了，”前国家安全委员会亚洲事务高级主管的埃文·S·梅代罗斯(Evan S. Medeiros)在电邮中说。“在国际关系中，特别是在大国之间，人的个性很重要。”
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Johannes Eisele/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
上周，上海的一个报刊亭在售卖以特朗普为封面的杂志。
中国扣留美国海军一艘无人潜航器所引发的争执，让人初步看到，如果围绕特朗普提出的南海、贸易不平衡、朝鲜核武器等问题出现更严重的紧张局势，特朗普和习近平的不同风格会如何发挥作用。
特朗普最近向中国发出大声警告，似乎是在遵从本能反应和一系列模糊而大胆的要求。相比之下，作为共产党元老之子，习近平有一种不露声色的强硬。他很少在公开场合即兴讲话。即使是一些看似即兴的手势，实则也往往经过了精心编排，而且他在与外国领导人会面时往往紧守政策要点。习近平当然也会采取大胆行动，正如他在南海所展示的那样，但他倾向于把他的想法隐藏在大量口号之中。让外人摸不透他会在何时、以何种方式就他的需求采取行动。
康奈尔大学(Cornell University)研究中国外交政策的副教授白洁曦(Jessica Chen Weiss)说：“情况可能会变得一点就着。”
“在公开声明中，习近平表现得比唐纳德·特朗普更加审慎，但中国政府可能会强烈反对任何挑战现状的激烈行动，” 白洁曦说。“为了我们的国家安全，特朗普的顾问们最明智的做法应该是对特朗普的Twitter发言进行筛查。”
上周六，中国军方证实他们在菲律宾苏比克湾西北约50英里的水域缴获一艘无人潜航器之后，特朗普到Twitter上表了态。此前五角大楼已经公布此事，中国国防部表示将以“适当的方式”返还这个用于监测海底洋流和状况的装置。
特朗普认为这是不够的。他说，中国此举是“前所未有的”，后来又说，“我们应该告诉中国，他们偷走的潜航器我们不要了。”
特朗普没有说他担任总统之后将如何处理类似的纠纷。但是他迄今为止的其他做法表明，他对中国采取的行动将比最近几届白宫政府更加直接，更加不可预测。
本月，特朗普与台湾总统蔡英文通了电话，打破了近40年来美国总统和候任总统避免与台湾领导人直接通话的惯例。中国声称对台湾拥有主权。
在接受福克斯新闻(Fox News)采访时，特朗普暗示他可能会偏离“一个中国”的原则——该原则阻止华盛顿与台湾发展外交关系——以此作为筹码，寻求北京在贸易问题上让步。他还对中国在贸易上的做法，在南海建立军事前哨，以及不愿意孤立朝鲜进行了批评。
“中国不习惯美国像自己一样宣扬和推动本国利益。”美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)亚洲研究主任丹·布鲁门萨尔(Dan Blumenthal)赞扬了特朗普这种更加率直的做法，“如果他们为此做好准备，我们就可以避免对抗和冲突。”
到目前为止，习近平没有公开对特朗普的警告作出反应。两个人在特朗普胜选后进行了短暂但亲切的电话交谈。中国领导人很少公开参与纠纷，往往会留给下级官员处理。但是，如果特朗普不断发出警告，特别是在他成为总统之后，中国国内就可能会形成一种压力，要求习近平对特朗普做出更强硬的回应。
中国扣留潜航器是不是对特朗普发出的一个信号，甚至是不是习近平授权开展了这个行动，专家们对此看法不一。但是中国决策者可能考虑到特朗普团队会把这看成是“一个测试和警告，”上海政法大学的海洋军事研究员倪乐雄说。
“中国不可能不对他的挑衅作出反应，”倪乐雄在电话说。“特朗普似乎想制定一个让对方不断猜测的外交政策。但这种方式很容易惹麻烦。”
周一，共产党著名报纸上的一篇社论称，习近平的政府需要做好准备，应对更不稳定的关系。
“特朗普东一榔头西一棒，其真实心理很难说清，”《人民日报》海外版的这篇社论引用了一句中国俗语，意思是说话或做事随心所欲、毫无根据。文章还说，中国“只要站稳脚跟，把握好形势，沉着应付即可”。
但是，甚至连中国要求冷静的呼吁也含有尖刻言辞和警告，可能惹怒特朗普政府。
中国国防部在表示同意归还潜航器时，也提到中国船只捕获它体现出“专业和负责任的态度”，虽然它当时似乎处在中国主张的、本来就极为广阔的南海主权的范围之外。
中国的强硬派已经敦促对特朗普做出更强硬的回应。周六，以反美为主调的报纸《环球时报》在北京举办了年会。与会者表示，如果特朗普与台湾走得更近，中国应该予以强硬报复，还赞扬了捕获潜航器的行动。
“中国不怕和美国对抗，”前中国空军大校、直言不讳的鹰派人物戴旭在会上说。“如果没有中国合作，特朗普将一事无成。我大胆断言，如果他选择和中国对抗，他的任期最多不超过四年。”
另一位发言者、中国人民大学国际关系学教授金灿荣对《环球时报》说，“中国是龙，美国是鹰，英国是狮子。龙一旦觉醒，其他的都是点心。”
此类强硬言论不能决定中国的外交政策，但是，习近平等领导人对自己培养起来的民族主义愤慨很敏感。习近平把自己对国家振兴强大的理想总结为“中国梦”，那是他自上任起就在宣传的一个主题。
如果特朗普继续公开责难中国，习近平的压力很可能会增大，尤其是在台湾和南海等领土问题上，因为公众倾向于在这些问题上给予对方强硬回应。
“中国通常会给新领导人一个适应局面的过渡期，”白洁曦说。她专门研究过中国对大选和新领导人的反应。“不过，特朗普向中国做出挑战和挑衅比其他候任总统都快，所以过渡期可能很快就会结束。”
美国总统们都知道，与中国的关系恶化起来能有多快。
1999年，北约的炸弹在前南斯拉夫首都贝尔格莱德击中中国大使馆，导致三人死亡。之后，比尔·克林顿总统(Bill Clinton)努力修复与中国关系。白宫坚称那是误炸，但中国政府不相信，之后数日出现了愤怒的抗议。
2001年，一架美国海军侦察机与一架中国空军飞机碰撞后在海南省（一个伸入南海的中国岛屿省份）紧急迫降，中方飞行员跳伞后死亡。11天后，中国释放了24名美方机组人员，在之后的几个月里将飞机拆解后归还。
在特朗普任上，此类事件的情形可能会截然不同。
“如果特朗普认为自己遭到了挑战，他很可能会本能地不想显得软弱，”华盛顿国际战略研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)中国力量项目(China Power Project)主任葛来仪(Bonnie Glaser)说。“在危机中，如果他不等获得所有的情报和必要的分析，就决定在Twitter上发言或公开讲话，情况会变得非常混乱。”
习近平在国内有自己的政治日程需要担心。2012年，他被任命为中共总书记，而明年的党代会几乎肯定会同意他连任下一个五年任期。不过，习近平必须安排一批新的高级官员在自己手下工作，在精英人事变动时期，中共的领导层更强调稳定性。
“中共领导层必须在保持更稳定、更可预见的外部环境与避免显得软弱这两个目标之间权衡，”葛来仪说。“我倾向于认为，如果中国领导层不得不做出选择，那么后者会战胜前者。我故意用的双关语（讲话者故意用了trump这个词本身的意思‘战胜，打败’――译注）。”
储百亮(Chris Buckley)是《纽约时报》驻京记者。
翻译：纽约时报中文网
Trump’s and Xi’s Differences Magnify Uncertainties Between U.S. and ChinaDEC. 19, 2016
BEIJING — Both came to power vowing to restore their nations to greatness. But America’s loud, ad-libbing president-elect, Donald J. Trump, and China’s guarded, calculating president, Xi Jinping, are glaring contrasts as politicians, and their pairing has injected new unpredictability into relations between their governments.
“I could not think of two more different protagonists in the great drama of U.S.-China relations,” Evan S. Medeiros, formerly the senior director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council, said by email. “Personalities matter a lot in international relations, especially between great powers.”
A quarrel after China seized an underwater drone from the United States Navy has given a taste of how Mr. Trump’s and Mr. Xi’s different styles could play out if bigger tensions were to break out over the South China Sea, trade imbalances, North Korea’s nuclear weapons or other issues that Mr. Trump has raised.
Mr. Trump has recently blared warnings at China, seemingly guided by visceral reflexes and a vague but bold set of demands. By contrast, Mr. Xi, the son of a Communist veteran, is disciplined and steely. He rarely speaks off the cuff in public. Even his seemingly impromptu gestures are often carefully choreographed, and he usually adheres to policy points when meeting foreign leaders. Mr. Xi is certainly capable of bold action, as he has shown in the South China Sea, but he tends to shroud his thinking in a cloud of slogans. That leaves outsiders guessing about when and how he will act on his demands.
“The situation could become quite combustible,” said Jessica Chen Weiss, an associate professor at Cornell University who studies Chinese foreign policy.
“Xi Jinping is more measured in his public statements than Donald Trump, but the Chinese government will likely hit back quite forcefully against any radical efforts to challenge the status quo,” Ms. Weiss said. “The best thing the president-elect’s advisers can do for our national security is to screen Trump’s tweets.”
Mr. Trump took to Twitter on Saturday after the Chinese military confirmed that it had seized a submersible drone in waters about 50 miles northwest of Subic Bay in the Philippines. The Pentagon had revealed the seizure, and China’s Ministry of National Defense said it would return the device, which can be used to monitor undersea currents and conditions, in an “appropriate manner.”
Mr. Trump suggested that wasn’t good enough. He said China’s seizure was an unprecedented act, and later added, “We should tell China that we don’t want the drone they stole back.”
Mr. Trump did not say how he would handle similar disputes after he is sworn. But his other comments so far suggest that he will take a blunter, less predictable course on China than recent White House administrations.
This month, Mr. Trump spoke on the phone with Tsai Ing-wen, the president of Taiwan, breaking nearly 40 years of American presidents and presidents-elect avoiding direct conversation with the leader of the island, over which China claims sovereignty.
In an interview with Fox News, Mr. Trump then suggested he could depart from the One China principle, which blocks Washington from diplomatic ties with Taiwan, using that as a pressure point to seek trade concessions from Beijing. He also criticized China on trade, the buildup of military outposts in the South China Sea and its reluctance to isolate North Korea.
“China is not used to the U.S. asserting and pushing its interests like the Chinese do,” said Dan Blumenthal, the director of Asian studies at the American Enterprise Institute, who praised Mr. Trump’s blunter approach. “If it is prepared for that, we will be able to avoid confrontation and conflict.”
So far, Mr. Xi has not reacted publicly to Mr. Trump’s warnings. The two men had a brief but cordial call after Mr. Trump won the election. Chinese leaders rarely wade openly into disputes, leaving that to junior officials. But pressure for a tougher reaction to Mr. Trump could build in China if he keeps lobbing out warnings, especially after he becomes president.
Experts disagreed over whether China’s seizure of the submersible drone was intended as a signal to Mr. Trump, or even authorized by Mr. Xi. But Chinese decision makers probably took into account that Mr. Trump’s team would read it as “a test and a warning,” said Ni Lexiong, a naval affairs researcher at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law.
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