The Hindenburg Stock Market Omen Doomed to Crash and Burn?(ZT)

把核心的结论摘录如下：

To effectively use the HO, it must be part of broader unbiased analysis as the biggest mistake analysts make is by attaching near certainty of outcome to an indicator that then clouds their judgement at arriving at a more probable conclusion. So the HO is no better or worse then any other technical indicator and should be treated as such rather then to be elevated to a level that generates headlines of imminent stock market doom. Given the fact that the HO's are rare this to me suggests that it is pretty much worthless as it does not allow for the build up of experience of using the indicator along with all other analysis on an going basis. It is infinitely better for analysts or traders to train themselves to use simple trendlines than waste time on tracking once in a blue moon indicators such as the HO.

Also remember that stock market crashes are extremely rare and near impossible to forecast events as illustrated by the long history of failure, remember October 2009? That was supposed to have witnessed a repeat of Black Monday that NEVER happened. Whilst the May 6th Flash Crash was missed by ALL.

The facts are that the main proponents of the Hindenburg Omen have been WRONG throughout the WHOLE Bull market from its birth in March 2009 and subsequent 18 month trend, the perma-bears each month jump from indicator to indicator (In June and July the Head and Shoulders pattern was all the rage) all the while hoping all the past investment account busting wrong calls have been forgotten as they wait to eventually be right, even a broken clock is right twice a day.

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http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22092.html