Where are the gold bulls now?(ZT) 9-3-08

Posted: Wednesday , 03 Sep 2008 JOHANNESBURG - Where are the gold bulls now? The average listed gold stock has now lost half its value; Barrick, the biggest name in the business, has shed 40% of its value since trading at record levels, like most gold names, during the early parts of this year.The majority of global Tier I gold diggers are now trading close to, or at, 12-month lows: Barrick, Polyus, Lihir, AngloGold Ashanti, Zijin, Newcrest, Gold Fields and Newmont. Given that the Tier I grouping has offered the greatest resistance to waves of investor selling, lesser gold names have experienced price contractions in greater degrees. A sample of 112 developer, or junior, gold names, shows up an average weighted stock price loss of nearly 60%.Gold stocks have been sold off on the latest downward spiral in the dollar gold price, which set in on 15 July 2008. The metal price then traded at nearly USD 1,000 an ounce, close to the record levels seen in March this year. The bigger picture shows that the dollar index - which measures the traded weighted value of the greenback - entered into rally period on 15 July this year.The recent appreciation has been sharp; the dollar index made a 12-month high on Tuesday, and another on Wednesday, triggering another broad based sell off in dollar commodity prices of virtually every kind. Gold bullion traded as low as USD 790 an ounce. The dollar entered into a protracted bear market early in 2002.Investors who now take bets that the recent rally will extend will be making one of the biggest calls in global investment markets. Over the past few months, by far the majority of various experts have predicted that dollar gold bullion prices will again make USD 1,000 in the foreseeable future. The carnage in the pricing of listed gold stocks suggests, however, that the majority of investors anticipate continued falls, or at best consolidation, in dollar gold prices.The correction in precious metals prices has been decisive, ranging from more than 20% for gold bullion to 51% for palladium, and slightly more than that for rhodium.PRECIOUS METALS USD/oz From high* From low* Gold 791.80 -23.3% 17.9% Platinum 1397.25 -39.3% 10.3% Palladium 290.50 -51.2% 7.9% Silver 12.64 -40.8% 5.2% * 12-month In terms of relative stock price performance, the extent of corrections in the pricing of listed gold stocks ranks down there in the pits with the likes of miners of uranium, nickel, diamonds, molybdenum, silver, copper, and platinum.The dollar's rally has been broadly underpinned by declining economic performance in an increasing number of countries across the globe, lagging the US, the leader of the economic down cycle. Along with falling commodity prices pushing inflationary fears off the boil, central bankers are increasingly under pressure to cut interest rates, putting a shine on the dollar. US interest rates can hardly be cut further, but policy interest rate cuts in most other countries remain distinctly possibleGlobal tier I gold stocks Stock From From Value price high* low* USD bn Goldcorp USD 31.39 -40.4% 32.3% 22.365 Polyus USD 31.00 -61.3% 0.0% 5.909 Harmony USD 7.98 -45.2% 10.5% 3.218 Lihir AUD 2.06 -53.7% 0.0% 3.726 AngloGold Ashanti USD 24.98 -49.1% 0.9% 8.758 Zijin CNY 4.63 -79.0% 1.3% 6.976 Barrick USD 32.91 -39.9% 3.8% 28.690 Newcrest AUD 22.60 -44.2% 2.0% 8.468 Gold Fields USD 8.50 -56.6% 1.2% 5.553 Kinross USD 14.99 -45.3% 22.5% 9.221 Newmont USD 42.93 -25.4% 5.3% 18.856 Buenaventura USD 21.64 -49.5% 15.4% 5.949 Freeport-McMoRan USD 83.05 -34.7% 20.4% 31.888 SPDR Gold Trust ETF USD 79.20 -21.1% 18.9% 16.830 Tier I averages/total -46.1% 9.6% 176.406 Weighted averages -44.3% 11.9% TIER II Stock From From Value price high* low* USD bn Zhongjin CNY 27.14 -83.0% 0.6% 1.395 Iamgold USD 6.29 -39.7% 21.9% 1.859 Simmer & Jack ZAR 3.85 -41.2% 16.7% 0.521 Yamana USD 10.06 -49.5% 8.6% 7.029 High River CAD 0.64 -81.7% 1.6% 0.211 Eldorado USD 7.83 -16.2% 56.6% 2.705 Agnico-Eagle USD 52.87 -36.6% 20.8% 7.598 Centerra CAD 4.15 -74.2% 13.7% 0.963 Randgold Resources USD 40.17 -28.6% 64.8% 3.068 Shandong CNY 31.20 -73.9% 0.6% 1.587 Peter Hambro GBP 8.75 -48.1% 5.2% 1.257 Hecla Mining USD 6.88 -47.6% 5.8% 0.878 Golden Star CAD 1.48 -66.2% 15.6% 0.375 Franco-Nevada CAD 19.80 -20.7% 45.3% 2.131 Fresnillo GBP 3.97 -31.0% 16.7% 5.039 JSC Polymetal USD 6.10 -38.1% 20.8% 1.922 Red Back CAD 6.35 -31.4% 21.6% 1.284 New Gold CAD 5.30 -45.6% 18.8% 1.205 Northgate CAD 1.46 -58.2% 0.0% 0.400 Tier II averages/total -48.0% 18.7% 41.426 Weighted averages -48.2% 20.0% TIER III Stock From From Value price high* low* USD bn Western Goldfields CAD 1.53 -63.0% 0.0% 0.224 Great Basin CAD 2.41 -37.1% 4.8% 0.548 Sino Gold AUD 3.87 -56.4% 5.2% 0.933 Alamos CAD 5.56 -33.8% 15.4% 0.569 Highland GBP 1.07 -57.7% 43.0% 0.613 PanAust AUD 0.77 -38.8% 27.5% 0.909 Kingsgate AUD 4.55 -27.8% 36.2% 0.350 Int'l Mining CAD 4.55 -31.6% 2.0% 0.469 Allied Gold AUD 0.34 -67.5% 34.0% 0.114 First Uranium CAD 5.11 -57.4% 27.8% 0.719 Novagold CAD 6.53 -67.8% 10.7% 0.737 Pan African GBP 0.05 -54.9% 27.6% 0.090 Citigold AUD 0.17 -67.0% 10.0% 0.093 Jaguar CAD 6.80 -52.9% 7.1% 0.469 Pamodzi Gold ZAR 1.20 -93.5% 0.0% 0.014 Oceanagold AUD 0.61 -83.9% 5.2% 0.081 DRDGold ZAR 4.10 -60.0% 7.6% 0.197 Central African GBP 0.04 -91.0% 3.3% 0.011 Resolute AUD 1.45 -43.1% 20.8% 0.337 Integra Mining AUD 0.18 -75.4% 0.0% 0.056 Royal Gold USD 32.91 -15.4% 24.0% 1.117 Chenzhou CNY 8.15 -85.9% 3.2% 0.638 Aurizon CAD 2.85 -47.5% 1.1% 0.452 Kazakh Gold USD 14.95 -49.8% 4.9% 0.812 Gammon Gold CAD 9.65 -19.7% 66.4% 1.237 Crew Gold CAD 0.51 -74.5% 2.0% 0.282 Lingbao HKD 2.13 -75.5% 12.1% 0.081 Zhaojin HKD 4.74 -78.9% 0.2% 0.265 Rusoro Mining CAD 0.86 -68.4% 32.3% 0.365 Minefinders CAD 8.04 -42.8% 1.5% 0.430 Andina Minerals CAD 2.30 -58.2% 19.2% 0.196 Crystallex CAD 1.25 -62.9% 123.2% 0.395 Tier III averages/total -57.5% 18.1% 13.801 Weighted averages -57.6% 18.5% DEVELOPERS Stock From From Value price high* low* USD bn Anatolia CAD 2.38 -63.9% 39.2% 0.212 Andean CAD 1.29 -42.6% 39.7% 0.426 Norton Gold AUD 0.18 -74.1% 16.7% 0.050 European Gold CAD 3.70 -48.6% 30.7% 0.712 Banro CAD 3.43 -73.6% 2.4% 0.149 Greystar CAD 2.05 -75.7% 7.3% 0.101 Medusa AUD 1.00 -35.4% 17.1% 0.119 Osisko CAD 3.17 -56.2% 6.7% 0.551 Central Rand ZAR 9.10 -55.7% 0.0% 0.286 Tamaya AUD 0.03 -91.9% 7.7% 0.030 Gabriel CAD 2.20 -39.9% 73.2% 0.603 Mintails AUD 0.20 -73.2% 25.0% 0.115 Moto Goldmines CAD 2.35 -61.4% 6.8% 0.221 Detour Gold CAD 12.28 -51.7% 111.7% 0.591 Centamin Egypt CAD 0.96 -40.0% 17.1% 0.904 Seabridge CAD 14.65 -62.4% 1.9% 0.587 Gold Reserve CAD 1.80 -70.0% 41.7% 0.110 Aurelian CAD 5.45 -46.7% 78.7% 0.890 Avoca Resources AUD 1.71 -41.2% 12.5% 0.409 St Barbara AUD 0.22 -78.1% 19.4% 0.231 Jinshan CAD 1.22 -62.1% 16.2% 0.213 Metals Exploration GBP 0.16 -62.8% 23.1% 0.032 Mercator Gold GBP 0.14 -85.2% 16.3% 0.015 Archipelago GBP 0.26 -25.5% 31.3% 0.093 China Goldmines GBP 0.80 -52.5% 1.3% 0.068 Cluff Gold GBP 0.41 -64.0% 2.5% 0.060 Apex Minerals AUD 0.40 -71.9% 12.7% 0.129 Gold Eagle CAD 11.56 -8.3% 108.3% 1.323 B2GOLD CAD 0.65 -74.5% 27.5% 0.114 Beadell AUD 0.13 -74.0% 83.1% 0.010 Kimber CAD 1.24 -37.4% 100.0% 0.077 Aflease Gold ZAR 2.05 -44.9% 19.2% 0.137 Wits Gold ZAR 85.50 -52.5% 7.0% 0.304 Uruguay Minerals CAD 1.22 -67.0% 16.2% 0.064 Minera IRL GBP 0.63 -17.8% 267.6% 0.068 Mineral Deposits AUD 0.56 -63.6% 19.1% 0.224 Allied Nevada CAD 5.87 -33.3% 42.8% 0.361 Bralorne Gold CAD 0.88 -38.9% 11.4% 0.016 Buffalo Gold CAD 0.14 -88.1% 0.0% 0.016 Cassidy Gold CAD 0.18 -67.9% 0.0% 0.016 Colombia Goldfields CAD 0.37 -75.5% 1.4% 0.037 Coral Gold CAD 0.49 -67.1% 8.9% 0.013 Entrée Gold CAD 2.00 -40.3% 50.4% 0.202 Exeter Resources CAD 2.91 -50.8% 11.1% 0.156 Gitennes CAD 0.13 -72.9% 23.8% 0.007 Golden Goose CAD 0.32 -66.3% 6.7% 0.016 Grandview Gold CAD 0.16 -88.9% 0.0% 0.006 Kirkland Lake CAD 6.67 -54.4% 8.5% 0.399 MacMillan Gold CAD 0.45 -59.1% 60.7% 0.030 Molycor Gold CAD 0.11 -59.6% 5.0% 0.008 Moneta Porcupine CAD 0.12 -57.1% 26.3% 0.013 Nautilus Minerals CAD 1.50 -66.6% 13.6% 0.236 Navasota Resources CAD 0.79 -8.1% 393.8% 0.047 PC Gold CAD 0.67 -46.4% 11.7% 0.018 Queensland Minerals CAD 0.20 -69.2% 5.3% 0.009 Rainy River CAD 2.05 -65.5% 13.9% 0.127 Reunion Gold CAD 0.40 -75.0% 42.9% 0.021 Searchgold Resources CAD 0.06 -83.7% 10.0% 0.008 Skyline Gold CAD 0.11 -65.0% 31.3% 0.008 Staccato Gold CAD 0.12 -68.4% 33.3% 0.013 Sunridge Gold CAD 0.41 -80.9% 24.2% 0.027 UC Resources CAD 0.14 -82.0% 12.5% 0.015 Yukon-Nevada CAD 0.22 -88.1% 91.3% 0.044 Tanami Gold AUD 0.04 -76.7% 12.9% 0.034 Tasman Goldfields AUD 0.09 -67.9% 36.4% 0.005 Focus Minerals AUD 0.03 -78.6% 29.2% 0.032 Goldminex AUD 1.61 -10.6% 114.7% 0.089 Leyshon Resources AUD 0.35 -51.4% 0.0% 0.063 Regis Resources AUD 0.18 -83.6% 63.6% 0.036 Goldstar Resources AUD 0.11 -80.6% 23.5% 0.013 Gryphon Minerals AUD 0.17 -78.8% 9.7% 0.016 Barra Resources AUD 0.10 -79.8% 11.1% 0.018 Conquest Mining AUD 0.26 -69.4% 4.0% 0.058 Hill End Gold AUD 0.17 -68.3% 22.2% 0.038 Dioro Exploration AUD 0.41 -84.8% 26.6% 0.023 Shield Mining AUD 0.10 -75.6% 25.0% 0.004 Dragon Mining AUD 0.07 -55.3% 11.7% 0.041 Zedex Minerals AUD 0.10 -80.0% 0.0% 0.017 Red 5 AUD 0.05 -72.4% 0.0% 0.026 Adamus Resources AUD 0.30 -65.9% 7.1% 0.036 Medusa Mining AUD 1.00 -35.4% 17.1% 0.119 Hampton Hill AUD 0.30 -48.3% 91.1% 0.032 Navigator Resources AUD 0.22 -80.1% 10.0% 0.024 Keegan Resources CAD 2.35 -59.8% 20.5% 0.072 Oromin CAD 1.44 -65.3% 0.0% 0.101 Bear Creek Mining CAD 2.70 -71.2% 10.2% 0.161 Austral Gold AUD 0.17 -50.0% 21.4% 0.024 Atlantic Gold AUD 0.14 -42.6% 28.6% 0.023 Lake Shore Gold CAD 1.32 -41.6% 23.4% 0.248 Linear Gold CAD 1.43 -56.7% 6.7% 0.043 Metallic Venture CAD 0.83 -69.0% 7.8% 0.046 Mundoro CAD 0.38 -71.2% 7.1% 0.016 Stratagold CAD 0.07 -87.0% 16.7% 0.013 Tyhee CAD 0.35 -57.9% 38.0% 0.063 Queenstown CAD 2.08 -45.7% 15.6% 0.117 Miranda CAD 0.48 -66.0% 20.0% 0.023 Mariana GBP 0.05 -57.6% 0.0% 0.003 Tribune Resources AUD 1.30 -41.1% 17.7% 0.054 Atna Resources CAD 0.61 -68.6% 31.2% 0.055 Condor Resources CAD 0.50 -71.4% 63.9% 0.013 Australian Solomons CAD 0.30 -77.3% 34.1% 0.022 Brazauro CAD 0.42 -53.3% 23.5% 0.034 NWM Mining CAD 0.11 -57.7% 22.2% 0.011 Geoinformatics CAD 0.04 -91.6% 16.7% 0.005 Hawthorne Gold CAD 0.67 -72.2% 4.7% 0.021 Inter-Citic CAD 0.48 -66.0% -35.1% 0.023 Int'l Tower Hill CAD 1.50 -44.2% 26.1% 0.064 Midway Gold CAD 1.41 -69.9% 8.5% 0.078 PMI Gold CAD 0.15 -56.1% 3.6% 0.012 Verena CAD 0.25 -51.9% 78.6% 0.026 Vior CAD 0.09 -66.0% 13.3% 0.007 Developer averages/total -61.1% 29.4% 14.197 Weighted averages -56.2% 30.7% Overall averages/total -57.1% 24.2% 228.999 Overall weighted averages -48.0% 14.2% * 12-month Source: market data; tables compiled by Barry Sergeant