A Nice Rally, Time For A Pullback?(ZT)

根据RBC CAPIＴAL　ＭＡＲＫＥＴ　的研究报告：

Event

Oil Service Strategist - March 27, 2007

Investment Opinion

Daily Rap

• OSX action mirrored the broader market Monday, giving up some ground in the morning before rallying off its intra-day low to settle up 0.7%.

• Crude oil closed at its new ytd high of $62.91/barrel driven by the uncertainty regarding the situation in Iran.

Rally In-Line With Historical Averages

• Over the past 10 weeks the OSX is up 21%, rebounding from its January low　of 180.30. Degree and duration of the move is consistent with historical rallies,　+22% on average between 1997 and 2006.

• Group could see a 5-10% retracement over the next several weeks, in our view　as buy interest subsides given the group's recent run and as investors await 1Q　earnings and the impact of the shoulder period on commodity prices.

• Investors look for 1Q earnings/commentary within expectations and visibility　on commodity prices through the shoulder period before taking the group　materially higher.