TheGoldmanSachsAILeadersBasket,consistingofthe9leadingAIstocks(semiconductors:Nvidia,TSMC),software/datacenter(Palantir,Oracle,Microsoft,Vertiv),andpower/infrastructure(GEVernova,Constellation,Vistra)hasmade756%sinceChatGPTlaunchin2022,anavgof122%peryear!
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Towhichearnings(“E”)shouldweapplytheP/Eratio?Valuationshouldbebasedonfutureearnings,notcurrentearnings.”?
RobertShiller,YaleProfessorandNobelLaureate,suggestsaP/Eratiothatnormalizesearningsoverthelast10yearsandadjustsforinflation(the
cyclicallyadjustedprice-earningsratio,or“CAPE”).The10-yearperiodismeanttorepresentafullbusinesscycle.
ButRobArnott,VitaliKalesnik,andKimMaturzo(2018)po...[
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在ETF带来的海量机构资金和日益友好的监管环境下，那个可预测的比特币四年减半周期可能已成过往
随着投资者画像的改变和监管环境的日趋友好，比特币历史性的周期正显示出被打破的迹象，这正在重塑市场动态。如果这个曾经预测性很强的模式被打破，将对投资者评估加密货币价格走势和潜在入场时机的方式产生重大影响。
BitwiseAssetManagement的首席投资官MatthewHougan表[
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ASeptemberFedcutisalmostfullypricedin,andYTD4ADDITIONALratecutsarepricedinbytheendof2026.UntilSeptemberfomcwehavetwomoreCPIandonemorepayroll,anduntilendof2026manymore.Ithinkthisisgoingtoswingaroundalot,onecansitandclipcoupons-qualityincomeisback-ORtradearoundextremepricingswings.
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IhaveahardrulethateachyearItakeAugustoff.Notrading,orlookingatmarketswiththesameintensity.It'sreallydifficult?butIhavetodoit.OtherwiseI'llbeexhaustedwhentherealmoneyflowsbackinSeptember.ThenitwillbefullonuntilChristmasweek.?
Herearemytop3thingsIstrugglewithandhowIfoundawaytopsolvethem.
1.IfearIwillmissoutonopportunitieswhenIamawayfromthedesk.Thisisaonewaytickettothemadhouse.Ishouldk...[
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ComputerDrivenTradersAreBullishonStocks,HumansAreBears
Computer-guidedtradersaremorebullishonstockscomparedtohumancounterparts,accordingtoParagThatte,astrategistatDeutscheBankAG
Discretionaryinvestorsarewaitingforsomethingtogive,suchasslowinggrowthoraspikeininflation,beforemakingtheirnextmove
Thedivergencebetweencomputer-drivenanddiscretionaryinvestorsisrareandmaynotlastlong,withtrend...[
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BeyondtheEconomicDownturn:HowAIisReshapingtheUSStockMarket
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TheUSeconomyappearstobeweakening.Recenteconomicdata,includingnon-farmpayrollnumbersshowingonly73,000newjobsinJulyandsignificantdownwardrevisionstopreviousmonths,pointtoapotentialcrisis.ThemanufacturingandservicesPMIsarealsodeteriorating,withthemanufacturingindexnowincontractionterritory.
?
Despitethesewarningsigns,thestockmar...[
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Palantir(PLTR)sharesclosedhigheronFridayafteraseniorWedbushanalyst,DanIves,saidthedataanalyticsfirmwillexceed$1trillioninmarketcapwithinthenextthreeyears.
IvesbullishremarksarriveonlydaysaftertheDenver-headquarteredfirmreportedablowoutQ2andraiseditsfull-yearguidance,citingrobustdemandforitsartificialintelligence(AI)offerings.
Palantirstockhasbeenatruemillionaire-makersinceearly2023,havin...[
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ThepositionmarksoneofthelargestknownbitcoinallocationsbyaU.S.universityendowment.
Whattoknow:
Harvarddisclosed$116millioninBlackRocksiSharesBitcoinTrust(IBIT)asofJune30.
Theholdingappearsintheuniversitysquarterly13-FfilingwiththeSEC.
MovesignalsgrowinginstitutionaladoptionofspotbitcoinETFsbytraditionalinvestors.
HarvardManagementCompany,whichoverseestheuniversitys$50billionendowmen...[
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下周，Circle公布Q2财报。
结合CoinbaseQ2财报已披露的USDC收益数据，结论是，它很可能交出一份高于市场预期的成绩单。
1、Q1基准线（已公布/估算）
稳定币利息总收益：$332M（包含平台与非平台）
平台USDC平均余额：$14B→收益$144M（数据来源：CoinbaseQ1财报）
非平台USDC余额（估）：$47B→收益约$188M
按Circle与Coinbase的合作协议，平台部分50%收益归Circle（约$72M），非平[
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