With SPX 30% higher from April low it is natural to feel a bit nervous – I feel a bit nervous - as we head into a period of likely higher inflation and weaker growth. BUT:
The backdrop of Fed cuts is one of below trend growth, NOT recession;
The equity market is NOT the economy, it is further boosted by AI offsetting weaker macro: mag7 now expected to grow 25% earnings this year compared to 4% for the rest.?
With still not very crowded positioning the path of least resistance is probably higher still, especially heading into nvidia reporting.