Make Canada Great Again

1. The Geopolitical Weaponization of US Trade Protectionism

The protectionist measures of the United States in the past were not economic measures, but geopolitical measures, that is, they used the name of protectionism to suppress the Chinese economy. Since Obama came to power, the United States has claimed that it would revive the manufacturing industry. Fifteen years later, the US manufacturing industry has been getting worse and worse. From the US anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures against China to the 301 investigation and other trade and investment barriers, it seems to protect the US manufacturing industry, but in fact it is to contain China. In order to contain China, the United States also encouraged its allies and some swing countries to decouple from the Chinese economy. The actual effect of the entire operation is actually to distribute China's market share in the United States to allies and countries that embarrass China. That is, China's market share in the United States has decreased, but the market share of the US industry has not increased. The US market has only been redistributed among various countries. Therefore, the US manufacturing industry has not improved. Of course, there are many complex factors in the hollowing out of the US economy, but as far as US tariffs and trade barriers are concerned, these tariffs and barriers are just geopolitical weapons, not the implementation of revitalizing American manufacturing. On the grounds of national security, the United States banned the use of Huawei equipment and pressured its allies to refuse to use Huawei equipment, squeezing Huawei out of the Western market. Huawei's US market was given to Apple, Samsung, Ericsson and others.

The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is such a geopolitical arrangement. This agreement does not promote free trade, but excludes China from the North American market. So this agreement is called free trade, but it is actually North American protectionism, establishing an exclusive North American market. To persuade allies to decouple from the Chinese economy, you have to give them benefits. Without China's competition in North America, the competition in the North American market has been reduced, which is good for manufacturing in the United States, Canada and Mexico. And the U.S. market that China has given up has also allowed Canada to get a bigger share of the U.S. market. This is not a market economy, but a rent-seeking economy. Canada has won the benefits of the U.S. market by helping the United States suppress China.

The US government has forced market allocation by building trade barriers against China and opening trade with Canada. The remaining market of China has been divided up by US allies, and the return of US manufacturing is still not significant. This is the result of geopolitics. Clinton once said: It's the economy, stupid! The key to the dilemma of the return of US manufacturing is that everything is centered on suppressing China, and the policies formulated put the economy in a secondary position.

2. Trump Tariffs 2.0

In 2025, Trump took office as the US president. He started serious protectionist measures. He learned from the fallacy of the last trade war and understood President Clinton's famous saying that this time the economy takes precedence over ideology. If geopolitics makes the US economy worse and worse, the government debt is getting higher and higher, and the government's ability is getting lower and lower, what national interest can we talk about? Isn't the national interest to make the country's economy better and better? Therefore, this time Trump's tariffs are imposed on all allies. This is a real trade barrier in the economic sense. It is wrong for the United States to engage in protectionism, which harms global economic interests. However, in terms of the return of manufacturing, it is right to impose the same taxes on all countries, and it is the right economic measure.

However, Canada and Europe feel very wronged. How can Trump betray his allies like this? The allies helped the United States suppress China, so the United States should take care of its allies. Therefore, the first reaction of Canadian politicians is to get close to the allies of the United States who suppress China, and use suppressing China to persuade the United States to cancel tariffs on Canada. If you don't manage the household, you don't know how expensive firewood and rice are. The United States has big difficulties. Trump's policy towards China this time is to give priority to strengthening the United States to reverse the trend of China's rise and the decline of the United States. Trump 1.0 gave priority to weakening China, and Trump 2.0 gave priority to strengthening the United States. There is a political benefit to giving priority to strengthening the United States. Even if the general trend between China and the United States cannot be reversed, it can make the United States stronger to realize his campaign promise of "making America great again". With the hegemonic power of the United States, it is difficult to deal with China, but is there any problem with dealing with allies? To reverse the general trend between China and the United States, it would be best if China's development can be suppressed while the United States develops. That is a two-pronged approach. However, if the United States develops slowly and cannot suppress China, then giving priority to the development of the United States is a second-best strategy. This is in line with Trump's campaign slogans of "America First" (AF) and "Make America Great Again" (MAGA).

3. Canada’s Way Out

Canada should recognize the Trump AF and MAGA policies, the difference between Trump 2.0 and Trump 1.0, and the policy shift that the economy is prioritized over ideology. Ottawa has always been a supporter of Washington's policies. This time, it should follow the transformation and accept President Clinton's teaching that the economy is fundamental. It should not use ideology to harm Canada's economic interests. Since the United States is no longer giving economic rent-seeking benefits, Canada is not obliged to continue to sacrifice its own economic interests to safeguard the geopolitical interests of the United States. If the United States can reconcile with Russia, why can't Canada reconcile with China? The United States and Russia are in a state of conflict and confrontation in a proxy war. Is the Canada-China conflict as serious as the US-Russia conflict? When Nixon visited China, the ideologies of China and the United States were still in a state of sharp confrontation and there were no diplomatic relations. Now Canada and the United States and Canada and China have diplomatic relations. Canada-China relations are not without a way out. Why do politicians still hold on to the Trump 1.0 policy to bargain with Trump 2.0? A man of insight is a hero. Canadian politicians must make up for the lesson of recognizing the situation.

The most rational and dignified bargaining between Canadian politicians and Trump is the most-favored-nation treatment. Didn't Trump impose tariffs on all countries? What Canada wants is that the tariffs imposed by the United States on Canada should not be higher than those imposed on other countries. It means that Trump should not have a policy that discriminates against Canada. As long as the United States treats all countries equally and does not discriminate against Canada, Canada is closer to the United States, deeply integrated with the US industrial chain, and will not lose to other countries outside the United States in the competition for the US market.

4. Canada’s road to becoming a powerful nation

 

Once the US tariffs are implemented, it is inevitable that Canadian manufacturing will be lost to the US. However, Canada is not completely helpless. Canada has superior resource endowments. Activating Canada's abundant resources can make the Canadian economy strong and even revive Canada's manufacturing industry. A country must have dignity. Canada cannot beg the United States to prioritize Canada, but should strive for self-improvement. The Canadian economy has been lackluster over the past decade because it has been tied to the US chariot, with its resources unable to enter the international market, and Canadian manufacturing has also lost the big Chinese market. The US market is a consumer market, which is not very important to Canada's high-tech, while China is a manufacturing powerhouse with a very large high-tech market.

Canadian BlackBerry is the originator of smartphones. Now the Canadian market is full of Korean Samsung phones. Why? The reason is that Samsung is willing to enter the Chinese market, but Canada is unwilling to enter the Chinese market. BlackBerry wanted to enter the Chinese market later, but it was too late. Canada pioneered smartphones, but now there is no mobile phone brand, which is the result of rejecting the Chinese market. Tim Hortons, Canada's most proud national brand, has always refused to enter the Chinese market, and was later sold to Burger King. The transaction can be completed if both the buyer and the seller think it is a good deal. Why does Tim Hortons think it is a good deal? Because the cash flow of this asset can be calculated. With long-term experience, it is certain how much the cash flow is and what value it is worth. If the buyer pays more than this value, it is worth selling. Why does the buyer think it is a good deal? Why does he think it is a good value? Because after Burger King bought Tim Hortons, it entered the Chinese market and made a fortune. A brand is an intellectual property, an intangible asset. The value of intellectual property will not decrease because of its use. Unlike tangible assets, which will decrease with every use, intellectual property will not decrease its value no matter how much it is used. Design a blueprint, the blueprint can be used to build one house or a million houses. Tim Hortons is the same. One can use the brand to open 3,000 chain stores or to open 30,000 chain stores. Canada has a population of 40 million, Chongqing has a population of more than 30 million, and Shanghai, Beijing, and Chengdu have a population of more than 20 million. The consumer market of a city in China is equivalent to the consumer market of Canada. The seller only focuses on the Canadian market and thinks it is a good deal to sell. The buyer sees the Canadian market and the Chinese market and thinks it is a good deal to buy. For intellectual property, the larger the market, the greater the value. For a long time, the Canadian public has believed that it is dangerous to enter China, that China has no legal system, and steals intellectual property rights. Is there still anyone saying that China steals intellectual property rights? Is there any suspicion that Canada's emerging mobile payment is stealing Chinese property rights? Did Huawei 5G steal Nortel's intellectual property rights? Does Nortel have 5G? When Nortel went bankrupt, was there 5G in the world? Did China's hypersonic missiles steal intellectual property rights? Huawei created many jobs for Canada. After Nortel went bankrupt, many technicians found jobs at Huawei. Did this count as Huawei stealing Nortel's intellectual property rights? So, Honda and GM are manufacturing cars in Canada and hiring Canadian technicians and engineers. Are they stealing Canadian intellectual property? What are the benefits of excluding Chinese telecommunications from the Canadian market? The Canadian market is not very competitive anymore. Canada's communication costs are one of the highest in the world. High communication costs mean high economic costs, which damage Canada's investment environment, Canadian consumers, and the Canadian economy. Apple, Microsoft, IBM, Tesla, GM, Ford, and many high-tech companies of the United States have opened factories in China and entered the Chinese market. Which high-tech brands of Canada are afraid of intellectual property theft? Tim Hortons? Canada Goose? Samsung is not afraid of intellectual property theft, but BlackBerry in Canada is? Before Obama, it can be said that all international brands in the world could not do without the US market. Since Xi Jinping, all international brands cannot do without the Chinese market. Rejecting the Chinese market is the biggest mistake in Canada's economic decision-making. It is unfair to put the blame for the economic weakness over the past decade on Trudeau alone. Creating a public perception of hostility towards China is the decisive factor in Canada's economic failure, and the Conservative Party has spared no effort in this regard. The Conservative Party's responsibility is to prevent the ruling party from making mistakes. However, in the past decade or so, the Conservative Party has been trying hard to push the Liberal Party's economic policy to the wrong path, that is, to reject the Chinese market. The arrest of Meng Wanzhou is Canada's biggest decision-making mistake. What was the Conservative Party's attitude towards the arrest of Meng Wanzhou at that time? The so-called "Xinjiang massacre" and "Chinese interference" are also the masterpieces of the Conservative Party, which have created a wrong public perception of China and caused serious damage to the Canadian economy. The public perception of hostility towards China has caused some Canadian businesses to consciously or unconsciously boycott the Chinese supply chain, causing many Canadian intellectual property rights to become obsolete. In today's world of rapid technological progress, if you hesitate to enter the market and realize your value, you will be eliminated by new technologies. Blackberry is an example. Canada's loss of its national brand Tim Hortons is another example. Canada's population and resources are comparable to Sweden's. Sweden has an IKEA chain store that sells well in Canada. IKEA is a masterpiece of logistics and marketing based on Chinese manufacture, comparable to Walmart. Why are Swedes able to do business that relies on the Chinese industrial chain? There are more Chinese in Canada than in Sweden, so why doesn't Canada have similar businesses? The spread of knowledge and technology is the main way for human civilization to progress. The fear of technology spreading to China and the resulting hesitation in moving forward are one of the important reasons for Canada's economic failure.

5. Canadian Immigration Economy

The only legitimate way to make Canada bigger and stronger is to develop the economy. The main factors of economic development are resources and labor. Canada is rich in resources and short of labor. In 1966, the ratio of working-age population to elderly people in Canada was 7.7 to 1, and this ratio dropped to 3.4 in 2022. That is, the number of elderly people that the Canadian labor force has to bear today has more than doubled compared to 1966. Originally, 7 people worked to support one elderly person, but now 3 people work to support one elderly person. The increase in Canada's labor force mainly depends on immigration. Canada's economic foundation relies on immigration. However, immigration is now a very negative perception in Canada. In the public's perception, immigrants are a burden on Canada, and housing difficulties and rising crime rates are attributed to immigrants. Therefore, there is a government policy to reduce immigration. This is a problem with the leadership of the Canadian government. As the saying goes, a good general can commend an unlimited number of soldiers, the more, the better. A capable Canadian national leader should have no problem with more immigrants. In fact, immigration policies before 2018 were reasonable and normal, with technic immigrants, investment immigrants, and international student immigrants to maintain the labor force population of the Canadian economy. But since 2020, Canada's immigration policy has deviated significantly. During the pandemic, a large number of baby boomers retired early, and there was a severe shortage of labor, especially in the health and nursing industries. Considering the Indo-Pacific strategy, Canada lowered the threshold for immigration to Canada from the Philippines and India, and the number of immigrants from India and the Philippines surged. In the 2019 Hong Kong riots, Canada granted asylum to Hong Kongers. These immigrants are political asylum immigrants, and there is no immigration point assessment. It is difficult for them to find jobs in Canada, and the cost of Canada's welfare system has increased, so these new immigrants have become a burden on Canada's economy. In the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, Canada urgently issued more than 90,000 Ukrainian visas. The young and middle-aged people in Ukraine all went to fight, and those who came to Canada were not laborers, but the elderly, children, and women. There are also many refugees who cross Roxham Rd. from the United States to Canada on foot. The government treats them with high standards and takes them to the hotels in Niagara Falls. Obviously, they are immigrants without Canadian social roots, and it is more difficult for them to find jobs. Because Canada passed the "Xinjiang Massacre" bill, the number of Uyghur immigrants has increased. These immigrants are the widows and children left behind by the East Turkestan Movement who died in the war in Syria. They are basically supported by the government. These extremists have caused great social problems in Canada, and public opinion has used immigrants as scapegoats. It is difficult for new immigrants to integrate into society, and it is even more difficult for those who do not pass the point-based immigration, technic immigration and investment immigration. Family immigration has family support and is also a stable immigration without social problems. However, Canada's large-scale acceptance of refugees and political asylum has placed a heavy burden on society and the government. These refugees and political asylums must also be accepted by Canada because they are an organic part of geopolitical operations. NGOs have gone deep into the grassroots on the ground to support the geopolitical goals of the United States, creating many failed countries and causing a large number of refugees. When the United States withdrew its troops from Afghanistan, many Afghans who helped the US military translate and work needed to immigrate to the West. Canada was a country that participated in the military operations in Afghanistan. This kind of national policy of accepting refugees and asylums while reducing immigration is a serious mistake, which will cause great harm to Canada's economy and society.

On January 12, 2017, an 11-year-old girl in Scarborough-Agincourt, Toronto, lied that an Asian boy cut her hijab twice on the way to school. The girl told the school at 9:15 a.m., and CBC published the report at 10 a.m. The school held a press conference to let mainstream media spread the story of the Asian boy cutting the girl's hijiab. In just a few hours, the whole of Canada was shocked. The Prime Minister and leaders of various political parties condemned this "discrimination against Muslims" on social media Twitter. The police department opened a hate crime investigation against the non-existent Asian boy. On January 15, the police department announced the conclusion that the so-called hijab-cutting incident was completely fictitious. The mother of the little girl wore a hijab that covered her face, the dress showed that the woman stayed at home and did not go out to work. A woman with two children, all supported by the government, and very influential. The little girl lied for a few hours and alarmed the Prime Minister, the Premier and many politicians, disrupting social order and wasting government money, but the government did not hold her mother accountable.

Do immigrants drag down the Canadian economy? Yes, these immigrants are geopolitical immigrants, not economic immigrants. Economic immigrants contribute to the economy, while political immigrants cost the government money. They also create social divisions and frictions, and the government has to protect and pamper them.

VI. Infrastructure Construction

In 1846, Britain abolished the Corn Laws and was no longer guaranteed to buy Canadian goods. This is similar to Trump's tariffs, in that the non-competitive market that Canada relied on suddenly disappeared. After Canada purchased Rupert's Land in 1869, there have always been two separatist forces: Western independence and Western integration into the United States. The Fenians repeatedly raided Manitoba. This is the same as the threat of annexation that Canada faces from the United States today. Prime Minister MacDonald formulated a national construction strategy and built the Pacific Railway. Today, Canada is the same. It is necessary to build east-west infrastructure, not only to deal with threats from the south but also to connect provinces and unify the Canadian market. The construction of the Pacific Railway launched the Canadian Industrial Revolution and established a Canadian internal circulation market for the Canadian Industrial Revolution.

In addition to resources and labor, the economic growth factor also includes capital. In addition to capital, resources, and labor, there is also the total factor. That is, economic growth is proportional to the input of resources, labor, and capital, and the proportional coefficient is the total factor. The larger the total factor factor, the greater the output driven by the same factor input. This total factor factor is the infrastructure and the smooth flow of the market.

Today, Canadian politicians have repeatedly talked about joining forces with Europe to resist Trump's tariffs. But Canada signed the CETA free trade agreement with Europe as early as 2017. However, since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in 2022, Canada has been unable to export LNG, which is urgently needed by Europe, because Canada has no oil pipeline to the Atlantic Ocean. Similar cases are everywhere. Canada has joined the CPTPP free trade agreement, but its economic ties with Asia are getting weaker and weaker. The free trade agreements that Canada has joined are basically paper talks and useless. There are two reasons. One is that Canada lacks the corresponding infrastructure. Without these infrastructures, Canada's huge resources cannot be activated; second, many free trade agreements are not economic agreements, but geopolitical agreements. Their diplomatic activities themselves are not for the Canadian economy, but for the containment of China. The original intention of signing a free trade agreement with the other party is not for Canadian trade, but to lure the other party to reduce economic exchanges with China. CPTPP is a typical example. Over the past decade, the economic ties between Canada and the United States have become deeper and deeper. Other free trade agreements are completely deaf's ears and are just decorations. Today, Trump and Putin are flirting with each other and there is no ideological confrontation at all. Canada should also abandon its ideological prejudice and pragmatically develop its economy.

VII. Regional Economy

The economic ties between Canada and the United States are a bit pathological. Due to the long border between the United States and Canada, Canada-US trade all goes inland, and long-term political and public opinion manipulation has blocked Canada's access to the sea. The economic hotspots of countries around the world are coastal port cities, while Canada's coastal ports are deserted. The Atlantic provinces are even more economically backward and have long relied on government subsidies for equalization policies, which has caused complaints from Alberta. It is right for wealthy provinces to support poor provinces, and Canadians should support each other. But support should be to teach people how to fish, not to give them fish. Giving people fish makes economically backward provinces dependent. The so-called poverty is a resource, and poverty becomes a bargaining chip for asking the government for money. Since Canada intends to strengthen economic ties with Europe, it is not enough to just have an oil pipeline to the Atlantic. The oil pipeline to the Atlantic is just for exporting oil and gas to Europe. It should also develop the Atlantic coastal economy and connect with the European supply chain. Atlantic provinces such as Newfoundland and Prince Edward Island have very suitable geographical conditions for free trade zones and investment attraction. Alberta's subsidies to Atlantic provinces should be transitional and temporary measures, which should help the development of the Atlantic identity economy instead of falling into a vicious cycle of economic backwardness and dependence on subsidies, causing Atlantic provinces to rely on Alberta subsidies for a long time. Similarly, since we have joined the CPTPP, we should develop the Pacific Coast economy. Vancouver should become an economically active metropolis, and Vancouver Island should become a free trade zone or special economic zone to attract international investment. Only when these economies develop can new immigrants find jobs and create wealth instead of consuming it.

Trump is using tariffs to snatch Canadian manufacturing. Canada should use Ford's electricity export surcharge to keep electricity in Canada, reduce Canadian electricity costs, increase American electricity costs, and bring American computing power to Canada. The internal combustion engine automobile manufacturing industry is already a sunset industry, and it is not a pity to flow into the United States. Artificial intelligence is a sunrise industry. Use Canada's abundant electricity resources to host data centers and supercomputing centers to serve the emerging AI industry in North America. Canada's AI talent growth rate is the fastest among the G7. Canada can also use tariff policies to attract American computing power to Canada.

Canada also has abundant water transport resources. The lower reaches of the St. Lawrence River are wide and directly connected to the Atlantic Ocean and Europe. The Thunder Bay Port on Lake Superior in Canada can load ships with more than 30,000 tons of cargo to freight to Europe. Canada's grain and potash fertilizers exported to Europe are all shipped from this port to Europe. The Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence River can also develop cruise tourism. Poilievre's political platform calls for strengthening Canada's Arctic sovereignty, and Carney has also signed a 6 billion contract with Australia to build an Arctic missile defense system. The Northwest Passage in Canada's Arctic is not recognized by the United States or Europe. At most, only a dozen cargo ships can pass through the Northwest Passage each year because the ice is too thick and the navigation time is too short. Canada should give priority to building icebreakers in the Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence River with 6 billion to ensure that this waterway is navigable all year round, which will connect the economies of Quebec and Ontario, promote Canada's foreign trade, and promote the development of the coastal economy. The Great Lakes are much warmer than the Arctic Ocean, so we should not be too ambitious, but should develop the economy down to earth. Ontario can also consider building a deep-water port in Hudson Bay to activate the mineral deposits in northern Ontario.

Conclusion

Trump's coming to power has changed the US strategy and thus the world structure. Canada should also adjust its national strategy in accordance with the changes in the world pattern, and transform its ideology-centered diplomacy into an economy-centered diplomacy. Canada is rich in resources, and it's pragmatic immigration policy that downplays ideology can attract talent and labor immigrants. It is feasible to revitalize the Canadian economy under the pressure of Trump's tariffs. Simply restoring Canada-China friendship and promoting people-to-people exchanges between Canada and China can quickly restore the prosperity of the aviation industry and tourism industries and solve many urgent employment problems. Only when the economy grows can the government budget be balanced and people's lives can be improved. When people's lives improve, social problems such as inflation, homelessness and rising crime rates can be easily resolved.