风萧萧_Frank
以文会友
Jeffrey Sachs 中国经济 特朗普关税 非洲援助
杰弗里·萨克斯谈中国经济、美国特朗普关税、非洲援助的文字记录
2025 年 3 月 7 日，作者：Pangambam S
东方卫视的 Max Ren 采访杰弗里·萨克斯教授谈中国经济、美国特朗普关税、非洲援助和东盟“选边站”……[2025 年 3 月 6 日]
创造世界和平
杰弗里·萨克斯教授：今天我谈论如何创造世界和平，因为我的观点是，我们面临的所有冲突，无论是乌克兰战争、中东冲突，还是美国和中国之间的紧张局势，都可以理性和合作地解决。
任志强：过去几年，中国一直保持 GDP 5% 左右的增长。您如何看待中国经济及其对世界经济增长的贡献？
萨克斯教授：中国不仅非常活跃，是世界大部分地区的主要贸易伙伴，而且在技术上也极具活力。这非常非常重要，无论是人工智能还是深度学习，当然我们都知道这一点，但中国目前在电动汽车领域遥遥领先。中国将成为新一代机器人的领导者，即将出现的类人机器人。中国是可再生能源技术的领导者。中国是第四代核电的领导者。
关键是，这些技术是世界各地实现绿色转型、气候安全和数字化转型所需要的。所以在我看来，中国不仅扮演着世界主要经济体的角色，而且还是技术领导者。
贸易战的影响
MAX REN：您认为贸易战、关税战会损害全球经济增长吗？会损害美国与加拿大、美国与墨西哥、特别是美国与中国的双边关系吗？您如何预见这场贸易战的影响？
JEFFREY SACHS 教授：我认为，不幸的是，特朗普信奉保护主义。我不信。我是一名经济学家。我相信开放贸易、开放市场、互利互惠。我相信过去 40 年来中美贸易对中国和美国都大有裨益。但我确实认为特朗普是保护主义者，他很可能会继续走这条路。
这对中国意味着什么？这意味着世界其他国家，中国和世界其他国家，应该说，好吧，如果美国想成为保护主义者并孤立自己，那是一回事，但我们将继续我们的开放贸易政策。所以我希望中国，当然还有金砖国家的其他国家，我希望欧盟，这一点非常重要，我知道世界上的新兴市场和发展中国家都想说，如果美国是保护主义者，这并不会阻止我们其他国家保持开放、充满活力的贸易和金融关系。这才是应该采取的方式。
另请阅读：如何使用创意写作来见证：萨基纳·霍夫勒（文字记录）
当然，我试图说服美国放弃保护主义，因为我认为这对美国没有好处，但对中国来说，与其痛苦地说，好吧，现在我们必须刺激消费或其他什么，中国还可以扩大对世界其他地区的出口，扩大对世界其他地区的投资，让中国的技术在东盟生产，或者在非洲、欧洲等地生产，我希望如此。
全球化的未来
MAX REN：听起来你对美国经济和世界经济来说真是一大福音。你认为世界会走向全球化、保护主义、全球合作还是个人主义？你预见到了什么？
JEFFREY SACHS 教授：我认为，从广义上讲，我们仍然处于一个全球互联的世界，享受着全球化带来的好处。美国已经有点丧失勇气了。中国的崛起吓坏了美国。现在他们搞保护主义了。这不是个好主意。我希望美国能够更加自信地恢复正常的开放，走出去竞争，做生意，但不要搞保护主义。这是我的希望。但我相信世界上大多数国家都希望有一个开放的经济和贸易体系，并开展合作。
我应该补充一点，我非常支持“一带一路”倡议，因为“一带一路”倡议将技术、贸易、就业、金融等结合起来，以扩大世界经济。因此，我认为中国主导的“一带一路”倡议对世界极为重要，而且对中国与世界其他国家建立牢固的经济关系也大有裨益。
“一带一路”倡议
MAX REN：说到“一带一路”，您对未来四年“一带一路”倡议是否乐观？您认为……
JEFFREY SACHS 教授：我会说，去吧，扩大它。我的一个小建议是
对于较贫穷的国家，我希望中国提供长期贷款，因为如果贷款是短期的，那么这些贫穷国家将无力偿还。但如果贷款是长期的，中国将促进经济增长，促进非洲和东南亚的快速增长。给予足够的时间，那么所有这些资金都将获得丰厚的回报。
中国在非洲和中东的作用
MAX REN：从历史上看，中国人一直充当丝绸之路上的和平缔造者和商业商人。但一些媒体网络声称中国对非洲和中东的某些国家构成了威胁。您是否认为中国公司正在这些大陆（非洲、中东）进行建设性改进，例如基础设施建设、技术转让？
杰弗里·萨克斯教授：我不仅相信这一点，而且亲眼目睹了这一点。我最近去了埃塞俄比亚，拜访了农民，他们比以前赚得多。为什么？中国帮助提供了电气化，中国还提供了从亚的斯亚贝巴到吉布提的铁路。现在这些农民正在种植经济作物，赚了很多钱，因为那里有基础设施。这就是中国使之成为可能。所以我没有看到任何威胁，只有贸易和投资的好处。这是我亲眼所见的亲身经历。
另请阅读：约翰·伦诺克斯：分裂世界的7天（文字记录）
MAX REN：这是消除非洲贫困的解决方案。
杰弗里·萨克斯教授：是的，因为中国在1980年到今天发展得如此之快。非洲可以实现非常非常快速的增长，但它需要投资、培训和技能。但中国是实现这一目标的一种路线图。所以我告诉我的非洲朋友和同行，看看中国取得的成就，你们也应该走同样的路。
对中国经济政策的建议
MAX REN：萨克斯教授，您是一位著名的经济学家，在经济政策方面非常有名。您想给中国领导人什么建议？他们需要做些什么才能继续改善经济，为全球经济做出贡献？
杰弗里·萨克斯教授：中国正在采取一些很棒的举措，不仅将自己视为一个非常有活力、成功的经济体，而且还在帮助全世界实现这一目标。全球发展倡议、全球文明倡议、一带一路倡议。所以我鼓励中国继续发挥这一作用，激励全世界，与世界合作，与世界贸易，在世界投资，保持这种非常独特、高度创新的经济，并帮助引领全世界所需的生态转型，因为中国也在为生态转型建设技术。这非常重要。
给中国企业家的建议
任志强：我有两个问题。既然您提到了中国经济，但中国有数百万企业家、制造商、业主，对吗？您想告诉他们什么，建议他们做什么，他们需要做些什么来适应他们的业务？因为如果关税战继续下去，很多工厂可能不得不将业务转移到其他地方，或者不得不倒闭或破产。
杰弗里·萨克斯教授：我认为重点是不仅要关注美国市场，中国在很多技术领域都处于领先地位，而且成本效率高，竞争力强。非洲有市场，东盟有市场，中亚有市场，世界各地都有市场。所以，如果你受到美国的打击，不要转向其他方向。
东盟的未来
马克斯·任：但既然你提到了，我很喜欢你对东盟、东南亚经济区的评论。我想问你，它们在未来五到十年中的作用是什么？它们有多重要？它们在美国和中国、太平洋地区之间是否比以往任何时候都更重要？
另请阅读：索菲亚·贾维德·韦塞尔谈女性的性快感：我们为什么如此害怕？（文字记录）
杰弗里·萨克斯教授：东盟国家，即东南亚十国，拥有 7 亿人口，经济非常活跃。东盟国家规模庞大，与中国关系密切，在交通、电力系统、数字电网、外商投资和供应链方面与中国紧密结合。这是一种非常牢固的关系。我所从事的领域之一是试图将粤港澳大湾区、香港、深圳、广州和东盟国家联系在一起，因为这非常适合经济发展。
MAX REN：东盟国家是否必须选边站？因为他们必须选边站，你刚才提到，他们会选边站吗？他们会把东西方联系在一起吗？
杰弗里·萨克斯教授：这是一个非常重要的观点。你知道，美国可能会迫使他们站队，但如果他们团结起来，7 亿人就可以说，不要逼我们站队。我们是中国的朋友。我们想和美国做朋友。我们
不想选边站。
上海在中国发展中的作用
MAX REN：最后一个问题。您想对上海发表一下看法吗？因为我们在上海有很多听众，上海是全国性的大本营，但您想谈谈您对中国的看法吗？上海是中国的城市榜样，在过去的 40 年里，上海一直熠熠生辉。
JEFFREY SACHS 教授：您知道，我来自纽约市，纽约和上海真的是孪生姐妹，因为我们都位于一条主要河流系统的尽头，我们都是各自国家历史上伟大的商业、金融和工业中心，所以我经常去上海，我很喜欢那里。当然，上海是一个充满活力、非凡的地方，在过去的 30 年里，我亲眼目睹了上海的非凡发展。
任志强：您认为从上海、哈尔滨到泰国、马来西亚、新加坡的铁路网在不久的将来会实现吗？
杰弗里·萨克斯教授：嗯，您知道，我坐过中国的高铁。现在它已经达到 50,000 公里了。在美国，我认为我们还没有一公里真正的高铁，所以我认为中国拥有非凡的基础设施，所以一切皆有可能。
任志强：您的话说得很有道理。谢谢教授。感谢您抽出时间。
杰弗里·萨克斯教授：谢谢。
相关文章
Transcript of Can ASEAN Rewrite The Rules of Global Peace? – Kishore Mahbubani
Transcript ofUS Energy Security: How We Got Here and Where We Are Headed – Daniel Yergin
Transcript of Professor Jeffrey Sachs In Conversation With Richard Overy, Why War?
Transcript of Monterey Conversations: Russian Foreign Policy, Past and Present – Stephen Kotkin
Transcript of Ernst Roets on The Tucker Carlson Show
Transcript of Jeffrey Sachs on China Economy, US Trump Tariffs, African Aid
by Pangambam S
Max Ren of Dragon TV interviews Professor Jeffrey Sachs on China Economy, US Trump Tariffs, African Aid and ‘sides-picking’ for ASEAN… [March 6, 2025]
TRANSCRIPT:
Making Peace in the World
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: Today I talk about how to make peace in the world because my view is that all of the conflicts that we have, whether it’s the Ukraine war, the conflict in the Middle East, or the tensions between the U.S. and China can be resolved rationally and cooperatively.
MAX REN: China has been maintaining GDP around 5% in the past few years. What do you oversee China’s economy and its contribution to the whole world economy growth?
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: China is not only very dynamic, it’s the main trading partner of most of the world, but it’s also technologically extraordinarily dynamic. And this is very, very important, whether it’s AI and deep-seek, of course we all know about that in the world, but also China is now the leader, by far, of electric vehicles. China is going to be the leader of the new robotics generation, the humanoid robots that are coming. China is the leader of renewable energy technologies. China is the leader in fourth generation nuclear power.
The point is, these are the technologies that are needed all over the world for the green transformation, for climate safety, and for the digital transformation. So in my view, China is playing a role not only as a world major economy, of course, but also as a technological leader.
The Impact of Trade Wars
MAX REN: What do you foresee for going on trade war, right, tariff war, do you think that harms global growth, that harms bilateral relationship between U.S. to Canada, U.S. to Mexico, particularly U.S. to China? How do you foresee the effect of this trade war?
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: I think, unfortunately, Trump believes in protectionism. I don’t. I’m an economist. I believe in open trade, open markets, mutual gain. I believe that the U.S.-China trade over the last 40 years has been hugely beneficial, both for China and the United States. But I do believe that Trump is a protectionist, and he’s likely to pursue this course.
What does it mean for China? It means that the rest of the world, China and the rest of the world, should say, okay, if the U.S. wants to be protectionist and isolate itself, that’s one thing, but we are going to continue our open trade policy. So I’m hoping that China and, of course, the other countries of the BRICS, and I’m hoping the European Union, very important, and I know that the emerging markets and developing countries of the world all want to say, if the U.S. is protectionist, it doesn’t stop the rest of us from still having an open, dynamic trade and finance relationship. That’s how this should be approached.
Of course, I’m trying to talk the U.S. out of protectionism, because I don’t think it’s good for the U.S., but for China, rather than anguishing or saying, well, now we have to just boost consumption or something else, China can also expand exports to other regions of the world and also expand investments in other regions of the world for Chinese technologies to be producing in ASEAN or to be producing in companies in Africa, in Europe, I hope, and so on.
The Future of Globalization
MAX REN: Well, it sounds like you are such a blessing to American economy, to the world economy. Do you think that the world is going to track globalism or protectionism or global cooperation or individualism? What do you foresee?
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: I think that, broadly speaking, we’re still in a globally interconnected world with the benefits of globalization. The United States has lost its nerve a little bit. China’s rise has scared the U.S. Now they’re protectionist. Not a good idea. I hope that the United States returns to normal openness with more confidence and just, yes, go out and compete, make business, but don’t be protectionist. This is what I’m hoping. But I do believe that most of the world wants an open economy and trading system and cooperation.
I should add that I’m a very big fan of the Belt and Road Initiative, because the Belt and Road Initiative brings technology, trade, jobs, finance, all together to expand the world economy. And so I think what China is leading with the Belt and Road Initiative is extremely important for the world, but also excellent for China in building those strong economic relations with the rest of the world.
Belt and Road Initiative
MAX REN: Talking about Belt and Road Initiative, are you optimistic about Belt and Road Initiative for the next four years? What is your…
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: I’d say go for it and expand it. My one little piece of advice is for the poorer countries, I hope China makes the loans longer term, because if the loans are short term, well, then these poor countries won’t be able to pay. But if they’re long term, what China’s going to do is promote economic growth, rapid growth in Africa, rapid growth in Southeast Asia. Give enough time, and then that’s going to be good returns on all of that finance.
China’s Role in Africa and the Middle East
MAX REN: Historically, the Chinese has been acting as peaceful peacemakers and business merchandisers across the Silk Road. But some media networks claim that China is playing a threat to certain countries in Africa and the Middle East. Do you think that Chinese companies are making constructive improvements, such as infrastructure constructions, right, technology transfer in those continents, Africa, Middle East?
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: Not only do I believe it, I see it on the ground with my own eyes. I was recently in Ethiopia, and I was visiting farmers that were making far more money than they were before. Why? China helped provide electrification, and China provided rail from Addis Ababa to Djibouti. Now these farmers are growing cash crops, making a lot of money, because the infrastructure is there. That’s what China made possible. So I haven’t seen any threats, only the benefits of trade and investment. This is my own experience with my own eyes.
MAX REN: That is the solution to end poverty in Africa.
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: It is, because China grew so fast between 1980 and today. Africa can achieve very, very rapid growth, but it needs investment, training, skills. But China is a kind of roadmap for that. So I tell my African friends and counterparts, look at what China achieved, you should go the same route.
Advice for Chinese Economic Policy
MAX REN: Professor Sachs, you are a renowned economist, you are so famous in economy policies. What do you want to suggest Chinese leaders, what do they need to do to continue to make economy better, to contribute to global economy?
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: China is making wonderful initiatives, seeing itself not only as a very dynamic, successful economy, but also as helping the whole world to achieve this. The Global Development Initiative, the Global Civilizations Initiative, the Belt and Road Initiative. So I encourage China to continue to play that role, inspiring the whole world, partnering with the world, trading with the world, investing in the world, and keeping this very distinctive, high innovation economy, and helping to lead also the ecological transformation that the whole world needs, because China is building the technologies for the ecological transformation as well. Very important.
Advice for Chinese Entrepreneurs
MAX REN: I have two questions. Since you mentioned about Chinese economy, but there are millions of Chinese entrepreneurs, manufacturers, owners, right? What do you want to tell them, suggest to them, what do they need to do to adapt their business? Because if the tariff war goes on, a lot of factories, they might have to shift their business here and there, or they might have to close down or bankrupt.
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: I think the main point is look not only for the U.S. market, but China is at the cutting edge of so many technologies, also is so cost-efficient, so competitive. There’s markets in Africa, there’s markets in ASEAN, there’s markets in Central Asia, all over the world. So don’t, if you’re being hit by the U.S., okay, change to another direction.
The Future of ASEAN
MAX REN: But since you mentioned, I really enjoy your comments about ASEAN, Southeast Asian economy zone. I want to ask you, what is their role in the next five, ten years? How important are they? Are they more important than ever between the U.S. and China, the Pacific region?
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: The ASEAN countries, the ten countries in Southeast Asia, are 700 million people and a very dynamic economy. Big, close to China, integrated with China in transport, in power systems, in the digital grid, in foreign investment, in supply chains. That’s a very strong relationship. One of the areas that I’m working in is trying to bring, help bring the greater Bay Area, Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, the greater Bay Area, together with the ASEAN countries, because that is such a great fit for economic development.
MAX REN: How difficult those ASEAN countries, do they have to take sides? Because they have to, you just mentioned, are they going to take sides? Are they going to align this west-east?
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: This is a very important point. You know, the U.S. might press them to take a side, but if they stick together as 700 million, they can say, don’t push us to take a side. We’re friends with China. We want to be friends with the United States. We don’t want to choose sides.
Shanghai’s Role in China’s Development
MAX REN: Last, last question. Would you like to give a comment on Shanghai, since we have a lot of audience in Shanghai base, it’s national base, but what do you want to, what do you think about China, Shanghai, the city role model, they have been shining, Shanghai has been shining past 40 years.
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: You know, I’m from New York City, and New York and Shanghai are really the twins, because we’re each at the end of a major river system, we’re each the great commercial, financial, industrial hub in the history of our respective countries, so I go to Shanghai often, and I love it. It’s, of course, a dynamic, remarkable, remarkable place, and I’ve seen before my own eyes in the last 30 years, the extraordinary development.
MAX REN: You think the inter-railroad from Shanghai, from Harbin, all the way to go through Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, is that, do you perceive this is going to achieve in the near future?
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: Well, you know, I ride China’s fast rail. It’s reached 50,000 kilometers now. In the United States, I don’t think we have one kilometer of real fast rail yet, so I think that China makes remarkable, remarkable infrastructure, so everything’s possible.
MAX REN: You have the word of wisdom. Thank you, Professor. Appreciate your time.
PROFESSOR JEFFREY SACHS: Thank you.
