Brian Schmidt 中国起美国衰 战争还是和平变革

中国崛起与美国衰落：权力转移与战争还是和平变革？

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Y4ZkdHxxc0&ab_channel=

2024年6月12日
政治科学研讨会：大分裂？世界如何分裂，我们对世界政治的看法有什么新变化？

Brian Schmidt
中国崛起与美国衰落：权力转移与战争还是和平变革？

中国是一个崛起的大国，而美国正在经历相对衰落，这一共识几乎使学者和政策制定者都仔细思考这种动态在不久的将来会如何发展。权力转移学派提出了一个可怕的预测，即中美之间爆发大国战争的可能性很大。我将解释权力转移学派以及他们为什么认为中美之间的战争是遥不可及的可能性。我还将研究一些文献，这些文献将和平变革视为一种适应权力分配变化的方式，而无需大国战争机制。在这方面，本文将考虑两类截然不同的文献，探讨当代最紧迫的问题之一；即中国的崛起及其对 21 世纪国际秩序的影响。

The Rise of China and the Decline of the United States: Power Transition and War or Peaceful Change?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Y4ZkdHxxc0&ab_channel=
 2024年6月12日
Political Science Workshop: The Grand Split? How The World is Dividing, what is new in our perceptions of world politics?

Brian Schmidt
The Rise of China and the Decline of the United States: Power Transition and War or Peaceful Change?

The near consensus that China is a rising power, and the United States is experiencing relative decline has led both scholars and policymakers to think carefully about how this dynamic might play out in the near future. The power transition school offers a dire prognosis that a great power war between China and the United States is serious possibility. I will explain the power transition school and why they believe war between China and the United States is a distant possibility. I will also examine a body of literature that looks at peaceful change as a way of accommodating changes in the distribution of power without the mechanism of Great Power War. In this regard, the paper will consider two very different bodies of literature on one of the most pressing issues of the time; namely, the rise of China and what this means for international order in the twenty-first century.

Brian Schmidt

IR theory/realist theory/disciplinary history; American foreign policy/grand strategy

Degrees:	BA (SUNY - Potsdam) MA, PhD (SUNY - Albany)
Phone:	613-520-2600 x 1062
Email:	[e-mail]
Office:	D687 Loeb Building
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Professor

Brian C. Schmidt is Professor of Political Science. Previously he taught at the State University of New York, New Paltz and the University at Wales, Aberystwyth. He holds a PhD in Political Science from the University at Albany, State University of New York. His research and teaching interests are in international relations theory, American foreign policy, and disciplinary history. His book The Political Discourse of Anarchy (1998), which received the Choice 1998 Outstanding Academic Book Award, examines the history of International Relations from the mid-1800s to the outbreak of World War Two. He continues to pursue research on the history of the field and has published numerous articles on the historiography of International Relations. At Carleton University, Dr. Schmidt teaches courses on international relations theory, the causes of war, the United Nations, and American foreign policy.

Selected Publications

“The Need for Theory: International Relations and the Council on Foreign Relations Study Group on the Theory of International Relations, 1953-54.” International History Review 42,3 (2020): 589-606.

Historiographical Investigations in International Relations, edited by Brian C.Schmidt and Nicolas Guilhot. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2019.

“On the History and Historiography of International Relations.” In Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse, and Beth Simmons, eds., Handbook of International Relations, Second Edition (Los Angeles: Sage Publications, 2013), pp. 3-28.

International Relations and the First Great Debate. London: Routledge, 2012.

Joint author with Michael C. Williams, “The Bush Doctrine and the Iraq War: Neo-Conservatives vs. Realists.” Security Studies 17 (2008): 191-220.

Imperialism and Internationalism in the Discipline of International Relations, edited by David Long and Brian C. Schmidt. Albany, NY: State University of New York Press, 2005.

The Political Discourse of Anarchy: A Disciplinary History of International Relations. Albany, NY: State University of New York Press, 1998.

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