风萧萧_Frank
以文会友
前财政部长萨默斯称特朗普的政策“令人毛骨悚然地让人联想到”阿根廷的庇隆政府
作者：莫妮卡·L·科雷亚，南非新闻编辑，2025年8月7日
前财政部长劳伦斯·萨默斯周四将美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的政府比作1946年阿根廷胡安·庇隆政府，称特朗普的政策“令人毛骨悚然地让人联想到”庇隆政府。
曾在比尔·克林顿政府时期（1999年至2001年）担任财政部长的萨默斯在接受彭博电视台采访时表示，美国人必须汲取战后阿根廷以及一战后其他欧洲国家的教训。
“阿根廷完全偏离了正轨，是因为一位通过民主选举产生的领导人在几年内做出的决定，他追求独裁而不是推崇民主。这应该成为商界所有人以及所有参与政治进程人士的警示，”同时也是哈佛大学教授的萨默斯说道。
庇隆在阿根廷执政时，阿根廷在20世纪初是世界第五大经济体。智库OMFIF在2023年的分析显示，庇隆希望阿根廷能够更加自给自足，因此实施了高关税等贸易保护主义政策，最终导致经济衰退。
“随着时间的推移，民族主义情绪逐渐蔓延，经济成功越来越取决于谁与政府友好，而越来越不取决于谁真正擅长生产产品并与外国人竞争——阿根廷的经济表现因此变得灾难性，”萨默斯说道。“如果你仔细想想，就会发现这种模式与我们目前的处境惊人地相似。”
萨默斯发表此番言论之际，特朗普正因贸易政策以外的行动而面临批评。就在7月份就业报告公布数小时后，特朗普解雇了劳工统计局局长埃里卡·麦肯塔弗，引发了人们对“香蕉共和国”的担忧。
萨默斯在彭博电视台与大卫·威斯汀主持的《华尔街周刊》节目中表示，尽管美国拥有“高度韧性的机构”，但他看到了与庇隆政府的相似之处，包括保护主义、“围绕领导人的个人崇拜”，以及对媒体、大学和律师事务所的攻击。
萨默斯还对特朗普围绕关税做出的一些经济承诺表示怀疑。“你不知道这些承诺意味着什么，因为你不知道基准线会是什么，”他说道。他还补充道，“大量投资将会流出，因为我们在提高所有投入品的价格的同时，也让自己成为了一个问题重重的生产中心。”
他还补充道，其中一些贸易政策的后果可能会导致制造业“在数量上规模更小，质量上也更差”。
“我们正在疏远世界其他国家；更高的投入品价格、给投资者带来更大的不确定性以及疏远消费者，这不可能是正确的策略，”他总结道，并补充道，“这里有一个赢家……他的名字是习近平。”
特朗普已对贸易伙伴加拿大（35%）、印度（50%）、巴西（50%）加征关税，并与其他伙伴达成了一些协议，例如欧盟（15%）、日本（15%）、英国（10%）和韩国（15%）。
最近，总统宣布对半导体征收100%的关税，但部分产品享有豁免。
周四，华尔街股市回吐早盘涨幅，盘中一度走低，市场参与者对特朗普的关税更新和疲软的美国国债拍卖进行了权衡。
Ex-Treasury head Summers says Trump’s policies 'scarily reminiscent' of Argentina's Perón
Monica L. Correa, Aug. 07, 2025
Summers, who served as Treasury Secretary from 1999 to 2001 under Bill Clinton, told Bloomberg TV that Americans must pay attention to the cautionary lessons from postwar Argentina and other European nations after World War I.
“Argentina went completely off track because of decisions made in a few years by an elected – through a democracy – leader who pursued autocracy rather than venerating democracy, and that should be a cautionary tale for everyone in the business community, and everyone involved in our political process,” Summers, who is also a Harvard University professor, said.
Perón came to power in Argentina at a time when the country was the fifth largest economy in the world at the beginning of the 20th century. Perón, wishing to make Argentina more self-sufficient, implemented trade protectionist policies such as high tariffs, which eventually led to an economic downfall, according to a 2023 analysis by think tank OMFIF.
“Over time, as the nationalism took hold, as economic success became more and more about who is friends with the government – and less and less about who was really good at producing products and competing with foreigners – Argentina’s economic performance became calamitous,” Summers said. “It’s a model that, if you think about it, is scarily reminiscent of what we are doing right now.”
Summers' comments come at a time when Trump has faced criticism for actions beyond trade policies. The President's recent firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, just hours after a significantly weak July jobs report, sparked 'banana republic' concerns.
Summers, speaking on Bloomberg TV’s Wall Street Week with David Westin, said that although the U.S. had “highly resilient institutions,” he saw parallels with Perón's government, including protectionism, “a cult of personality around the leader,” and attacks on the media, universities, and law firms.
Summers also expressed skepticism about some of Trump’s economic promises centered around tariffs. “You don’t know what they mean, because you don’t know what the baseline would have been,” he said, and added that there is going to be “a lot of investment that goes out, because we’re making ourselves such a more problematic hub for production when we’re raising the price of all the inputs.”
He added that the consequence of some of these trade policies may give way to a manufacturing sector “that is both quantitatively smaller and qualitatively inferior.”
“We are alienating the rest of the world; higher priced inputs, much more uncertainty for investors and alienating of customers can’t be the right strategy,” he concluded, adding that “there’s a winner here… His name is Xi Jinping.”
Trump has imposed higher tariffs on trade partners Canada (35%), India (50%), Brazil (50%), and made some deals with other partners such as EU (15%), Japan (15%), UK (10%), and South Korea (15%).
Most recently, the president announced 100% tariffs on semiconductors with exemptions.
Wall Street on Thursday gave up early gains to trade lower as market participants weighed Trump's tariff updates and a weak Treasury bond auction.
