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俱乐部午餐摘要 - “与新加坡前外交部长杨荣文共进午餐”
这是人工智能生成的摘要。 可能存在不准确之处。
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00:00:00 - 00:55:00
新加坡前外交部长杨荣文接受了俱乐部午餐采访，他在采访中讨论了各种话题，包括新加坡新闻自由的重要性以及中国拥有新加坡和香港这两个强大城市的好处。 他还讨论了香港和新加坡之间的竞争，以及每个城市在大流行期间如何利用对方的优势。 杨分享了他对世界多极本质以及中国如何能够在这种环境下蓬勃发展的看法。 他预测，乌克兰冲突将比预期更快地帮助多极世界具体化。 其他主题包括沙特政府性质的变化、新加坡与中国的关系，以及禁止不同群体成员相互争斗的主教原则。
00:00:00 在本节中，演讲者谈论新加坡前外交部长杨荣文，他是 FCC 的演讲者之一。 杨荣文 (George Yeo) 谈论将于周一、7 月 13 日和 7 月 16 日发生的活动，以及即将于 3 月 3 日举行的电影《平凡生活》的俱乐部放映以及《Battle Box》的放映 3月3日上映的电影《香港：图画史》。 他还讨论了新加坡新闻自由和记者声誉的重要性。
00:05:00 在本节中，新加坡前外交部长杨荣文讨论了在中国拥有两个城市（新加坡和香港）的好处，以及它们如何帮助彼此保持强大。
00:10:00 在本节中，演讲者讨论了香港和新加坡之间“相似多于不同”的竞争。 演讲者还描述了在大流行期间，新加坡如何利用香港封城的机会，放弃大规模委托，吸引人们前往家族办公室。 虽然新加坡并没有受到香港所作所为的激励，但它确实利用了香港的夹缝求生。 内部宇宙是自由开放的，这与中国的常态不同。 但由于后门没有打开，中国得以在香港占了一段时间。 但由于香港无法彻底清理，只好以上海为后门。 上海和香港之间的竞争将继续对中国发挥不同的作用。
00:15:00 在本节中，作者讨论了与香港当地人打交道的困难，以及这如何导致中国在香港的影响力上升。 他还讨论了中国在香港的角色如何被修改，但方向与预期相反。
00:20:00 在本节中，新加坡前外交部长杨荣文向研讨会观众表示，世界是一个“多极世界”，西方世界处于“防御”状态。 他讨论了中国如何能够在多极世界中立足多年，以及西方如何无法维持其主导地位。 杨预测，乌克兰战争将有助于多极世界比预期更快地具体化。
00:25:00 在本节中，发言者讨论前新加坡外交部长杨荣文表示，如果战争不倒下，俄罗斯联邦将在 2020 年底前采取行动，如果战争确实倒下，北约将 被迫升级。 他还表示，停止点将导致乌克兰欧洲分裂。
00:30:00 在本节中，演讲者概述了沙特政府多年来的变化，以及这如何对该国的外交政策产生了重大影响。 他们还讨论了沙特阿拉伯最近的开放行为如何导致与美国的紧张关系。
00:35:00 在本节中，演讲者讨论了新加坡与中国的关系，讨论了两国关系的现状以及进一步发展的潜力。 他们还提到了保持文化和种族归属的重要性，以及这给新加坡人带来的挑战。
00:40:00 在本节中，新加坡前外交部长杨荣文向香港观众表示，虽然他不是中华人民共和国公民，但他钦佩并尊重新加坡以及新加坡培养出像他这样的人才的能力 权威地谈论世界事务。 他接着说，由于南海几个世纪以来一直是公地，中国人声称应该将南海分成两半，中方拥有完全的出海权，而另一方则只有有限的出入权。 他还认为，如果台湾海峡开放通航，中国将
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新加坡媒体代表采访外交部长杨荣文
问：您是否愿意首先向我们介绍一下40周年纪念日和东盟峰会的总体目标和目标？
部长：此次峰会的高潮将是签署东盟宪章。 两年半前，当我们在外交部长务虚会上开始这一进程时，我们从未预料到我们会走到这一步。 我们成立了一个知名人士小组，该小组在大约两年前的吉隆坡峰会上启动，然后当该报告被接受时，高级别工作组进行了起草工作，该小组必须解决许多重要问题，例如我们将如何解决 我们之间的争端，我们是否想要一个人权机构等等。 但在整个过程中，政治意愿比我之前预期的要多。 每次我们必须面对问题时，我们都会做出决定并继续前进，我们不会回避。 当各国外交部长在纽约联合国大会期间举行会议时，最后的问题得到了解决。 现在我们有一份宪章需要签署。 现在，尽管尚未正式发布，但可以在网站上找到副本，因为泰国议会必须作为新程序的一部分对其进行辩论。 所以里面的内容不再是秘密。 没有提到制裁或驱逐，因为官员们立即想知道我们是否指的是特定情况或特定国家，这很尴尬，但事实上这意味着对于最终问题，它将在什么时候返回给领导人 他们在峰会上会面。 在这种情况下，领导人将充当同行委员会，决定自己的内部程序并做出自己的决定。
这不是什么新鲜事。 几年前，当缅甸问题出现时，吴作栋时任总理，他让领导人在侧室会面，没有官员在场，没有媒体报道，没有录音，随后东盟开始 发表声明，呼吁释放昂山素季，并要求缅甸坚持自己的民主道路。 从这个意义上说，缅甸也是这些声明的缔约方。 因此，对于最终问题，领导人总是可以开会并决定他们想要做什么。 对于其他问题——管理协议的执行、管理有关特定东盟文书的争端，当然我们越来越多地执行具体的争端解决机制。 例如，对于所有经济手段，我们都加强了遵循国际公约的争端解决机制。 在一段时间内，东盟的判例将会不断发展，各国将认识到需要让律师在起草协议时仔细预测可能出现的争议和诉讼； 所有这些都标志着东盟朝着成为一个基于规则、受规则约束的组织迈出了重要的一步。 这需要时间，但我们现在正在做的是，我们正在重新设定我们的方向。 最初，您可能会问有什么区别？ 一步一步，五年、十年、二十年，东盟的终点截然不同。
但无论我们为解决最困难的政治问题制定什么规则，领导力才是最重要的。 以几周前缅甸镇压和平示威者为例。 当时我们还不确定缅甸是否会参加峰会。 我们不确定这个国家会发生什么，但我们毫不怀疑，当领导人在新加坡会面时，他们会决定，无论缅甸是否来，我们都必须向前迈进，宪章仍然会签署 。 我的意思是，为缅甸留出空间，让他们在准备好后签字。 所以这些都是突发事件，你无法事先将其写入规则。 我们想说的是，在我们能够定义情况的地方，我们就定义它，然后当我们不能时，我们不要假装比我们更确定； 宪章中有授权条款，对于最困难的问题，将其提交给领导人，然后领导人必须利用集体智慧找到前进的道路。 因此，这是东盟历史上非常重要的里程碑。
我们坚持了40年，维护了东南亚的和平，促进了各国的发展。 新加坡从第三世界国家变成了第一世界国家，因为我们周围有和平，现在连曾经在另一边的越南也正在向未来快速出击。 人们可以对整个东盟感到乐观，但也存在像我们现在在缅甸面临的问题。 我们希望缅甸不会主导下次会议的议程。 通过联合国和特别顾问易卜拉欣·甘巴里的斡旋，迄今已取得良好进展，甘巴里代表昂昂宣读的声明意义重大。
山素季在新加坡。 她采取了积极的态度，并对未来表示了一定的希望，随后当她在仰光会见自己的政党成员时，当她被允许在仰光会见自己的政党成员时，她说她非常乐观。 她的话让我感到惊讶，但我们有什么资格去猜测她呢？ 被监禁的她很乐观。 嗯，因此我们必须乐观。 为此，当甘巴里回到联合国评估上次访问时，连美国也纷纷表示对他的斡旋充满信心。 因此，我相信我们很有可能在新加坡举行良好的会议，但关键的会议将是19日为东盟领导人举行的第一晚非正式领导人晚宴。 那是家庭聚餐，不会有官员在场； 不会有闭路电视，只有领导人之间的会议。 我们预计该会议将讨论缅甸问题。 如果我们能够达成共同立场，这对缅甸的民族和解进程将非常有帮助，这将意味着我们都站在易卜拉欣·甘巴里的一边。 如果东盟立场一致，那么当11月21日东亚峰会领导人会议时，中国、日本和印度将与我们站在一起。 我拜访他们是为了达成共识，我确信如果我们在东盟有共同立场，那么他们就会支持我们。 所以 EAS 会议就是为此而召开的，因为他们都会出席。 当然还有其他国家——澳大利亚、新西兰和韩国。 我确信他们也会一起来。 总理已邀请易卜拉欣·甘巴里在那次会议上向我们介绍情况。 他们可以与他交换意见，然后领导人将在午餐时单独讨论缅甸和其他问题。 这些是21号的。 如果所有东亚峰会领导人围绕东盟核心立场也能发表声明支持甘巴里，支持缅甸民族和解进程，呼吁走一条有时限的民主之路，那么倒退的可能性就会减少 峰会之后。 因为所有峰会国家都会为这一立场做好准备，但如果我们不保持前进的压力，那么可能会出现倒退，这对缅甸人民不利，对我们东南亚也不利。 因此，如果我们在东亚峰会中拥有良好稳固的地位，那么这将增强我们未来的地位。
另一个需要巧妙处理的问题是我们同意在东盟设立的人权机构。 这个问题被推迟了，因为重要的是内容，还没有决定。 这是两个简单的段落，它们本身并不重要，但因为它们包含在宪章中，所以很重要。 我们不能将该机构称为一些国家想要的“委员会”，因为这表明该机构的名称超出了其他国家的预期，因此商定了一个通用术语。 有人争论是否应将其置于机关章或其他章之下。 我们解决了这个问题并将其放在器官章节下。 对于应该将哪些器官列入清单存在争议。 我们在纽约解决了这个问题。 鉴于新成员国的立场，我不太知道我们最终会达成什么一致。 我怀疑我们是否会……我不确定它是否会有牙齿，但它肯定会有舌头。 要知道，套用白芝浩在英国宪法中谈到英国君主时所说的话，无论它有没有牙齿，人权机构都有权提出警告、批评、鼓励。 如果不出意外的话，它肯定会产生道德影响。 但这些都是未来的细节。 也许我会在这里结束并回答你们的问题。 是的，请问您来自哪里？
问：《新报》的子勇。
部长：新纸。
问：为了成功，政府必须向人民推销东盟的理念，所以目前不深入探讨亚洲的哲学和历史，也不使用外交官的语言，你将如何推销这个理念 让他们对东盟宪章感到兴奋。
部长：这需要时间。 如果你看看欧洲的经验，它最初是精英阶层的建设，领导人在第二次世界大战后聚集在一起，决定他们不应该再互相争斗，而应该为政治一体化和经济发展建立一个共同的空间。 一步一步地深化和扩大，然后通过Inter-Rail、ERASMUS等各种计划，促进人员、学者、学生的自由流动，创造欧洲公民意识。 他们仍然是法国人、德国人和波兰人，但年轻的欧洲人越来越意识到他们也是欧洲公民。 几个月前，我与一位英国外交部高级官员交谈。 他很开放。 他说：“我儿子比我感觉更像欧洲人”！ 我们面临的挑战是如何让我们的孩子
比我们更能感受到东盟。 这需要时间，但一步一步，随着对东盟的了解不断扩大，随着我们共同应对危机，随着我们看到合作的优势，年轻一代将会对东盟更加忠诚，并将其价值观和愿望内化。
再次回到缅甸，近几个月来，没有什么比缅甸更能让普通新加坡人感受到东盟对东盟的重要性了。 突然，我们中的一些人说：“是的，东盟必须对此采取行动，东盟必须成为解决方案的一部分。” 因此，当我们时不时地面临危机时，这将帮助我们定义我们的身份，我们的共同身份。 当然我们还应该做一些文化活动、舞蹈节、奖学金、青少年交流、歌曲比赛、骑自行车等活动。 做一些有趣的、有吸引力的小事情，逐渐让年轻人感觉到，“哦，这是值得做的事情”。
问：当人们对东盟对缅甸局势的反应感到失望、希望采取行动时，你认为这是一种抑制吗？ 而东盟则回应称，我们必须支持甘巴里先生，而不是采取比已经采取的更多具体行动。 那么你认为从这个意义上说，人们，你知道你让他们感兴趣，但你却提出了某种让他们失望的东西？
部长：嗯，有很多观点。 我认为一些新加坡人认为我们应该做得更多。 有些人可能希望我们切断与缅甸的所有联系。 但事实上，许多新加坡人对我们所采取的立场感到非常满意，即坚定但保持参与。
问：作为新加坡主席，您认为本次峰会最理想的成果是什么？
部长：作为主席，我们的责任是从菲律宾主席手中接过球而不丢球，将其向前推进并传给下一任主席的泰国人，而不丢球。 所以这并不是说我们正在发起新政策或决定重大事情。 我们是东盟进程的一部分，当我们担任主席时，我们有一定的责任来推动共同事业，当像缅甸这样的突发事件发生在我们身上时，我们会采取负责任的行动，这就是我们为这次峰会努力做的事情 。 我们所能做的就是帮助促进和落实东盟的共同意愿。 这并不是说我们代表他人负责并做出决定。 我想说的是，如果我们能够在缅甸问题上达成良好的共同立场，不让它影响或削弱我们庆祝《宪章》签署的活动，然后与我们的东亚峰会同事共同努力，最终庆祝《宪章》签署30周年。 东盟-欧洲关系的话，我们会做得很好。
问：您越来越多地前往东亚各国。 您能否告诉我们您在对中国和印度施加影响力方面的一些讨论或担忧？
部长：我访问东京、北京和德里主要是为了就缅甸问题进行磋商。 每个人都有自己的观点。 单凭一己之力不可能取得充分成效，但如果我们协调一致、共同行动，我相信一定能为缅甸民族和解进程发挥有益作用。 几天前，当我在德里拜访普拉纳布·默克吉先生时，他以非常直率的方式向我提出了这一点。 他说这不仅仅是印度和中国。 必须是印度、中国和东盟一起。 我相信我们已经达成了足够的共识，可以在下周实现这一目标。
问：但我们正在关注东盟，东盟也在关注他们。
部长：我们必须共同努力。 东盟本身不能做太多事情，我们必须对此非常现实，但东盟是一个大家庭，所以这给了我们道德地位。 中国和印度与缅甸有着漫长的边界。 国家保持稳定，走上民主发展的道路，符合我们三人的既得利益。 所以在缅甸问题上，我们有着根本上的共同利益。 当然，中国和印度互相怀疑，因为缅甸是两国之间的缓冲国。 而印度在1990年代初向昂山素季颁发尼赫鲁奖时，看到其与仰光的关系恶化，他们担心中国对缅甸的影响力太大，所以他们想要平衡。 中国修建了通往缅甸的良好道路。 印度也在修建通往缅甸的良好道路，不仅通往边境，而且通往缅甸的城市。 如果我们管理好这个过程，那么通过欢迎双方，我们将成为他们的交汇点和连接点，这就是我们本世纪在亚洲应该始终努力做到的目标。 东盟作为十个国家的联合体，与双方都拥有良好的关系，并受益于它们的成长和发展。
问：在反对声音日益强烈和即将举行的民意调查的情况下，执政政府有可能无法持久。 您如何看待这对东盟现在制定的方向的影响？
部长：由居住在该国的人民决定
他们拥有的政府形式。 这就是尊重和不干涉的原则。 但当然，没有一个国家是独裁的。 一个国家内部发生的事情可能会影响其朋友和邻国。 它的朋友和邻居的所作所为可能会影响到国内的情况，因此在某种程度上我们是相互联系的。 我们有兴趣，但最终我们必须接受，由自己国家的人民决定自己的命运。 我们可以为缅甸做很多事情，但最终还是要由缅甸人民来解决自己的未来。 最终是政府、各民族、昂山素季、民盟、军队必须妥协并决定他们应该成为什么样的社会和国家。 最终，他们会从后果中承受最大的痛苦，或者从后果中受益最多，这取决于结果。 是的，请？
问：主席先生，回到《宪章》，您认为《宪章》实施过程中最大的挑战是什么？特别是对新加坡的意义是什么？ 另一个问题是环境议程将成为今年峰会的主要成果之一。 新加坡将如何与其他对话伙伴分享我们在绿化方面的经验以及我们在环境方面的所有经验？
敏：你的第一个问题是关于宪章之后的下一步。 下一步是批准，这在菲律宾等一些国家可能是一个漫长的过程。 昨天我与东盟大使共进午餐。 我告诉他们我们需要为自己设定一个目标。 用一年的时间让所有国家批准《宪章》，以便一年后我们在曼谷开会时《宪章》能够生效。 为了纪念这一点，应该有一个仪式，一个让每个人都为之努力的活动，一个给自己施加压力的方式。 泰国人一直热衷于在曼谷旧萨拉那隆宫签署《宪章》，40 年前的 8 月 8 日，建立东盟的原始文书就是在这里签署的。 明年，当所有国家都批准了《宪章》时，我们将在那里举行一个仪式，说“看，是的，我们终于踏上了新的道路，我们再次在曼谷相聚庆祝”，这将是非常具有象征意义的。 这就是我们希望做的。 除此之外，在一系列问题上总会存在争议和无休止的争论，但这没关系。 这就是我们一直在谈论的社区建设的一部分。 正如丘吉尔曾经说过的那样，“下巴，下巴比战争更好，战争”，事实上我们有会议，我们学会彼此相处，我们建立友谊、同志情谊和信任的纽带，这都是我们的生活的一部分。 社区建设。 这最终将创造出东盟公民意识。
你的第二个问题是一个非常重要的问题，涉及环境和气候变化。 事实上，这就是我们会议的组织主题——“环境保护、能源、气候变化与可持续发展”。 12 月将在巴厘岛召开一次非常重要的会议——联合国气候变化框架公约，该会议将由印度尼西亚主持，当我上周拜访 SBY 总统时，我告诉他李总理已指示内阁部长们充分考虑 对这次会议的支持。 对于未来来说，这是一次非常重要的会议。 它将决定我们这个星球上的国家必须共同采取哪些行动来减缓全球变暖。 我们知道人类活动对此做出了贡献。 我们不太确定有多少。 如果我们一定要犯错误，那就让我们在安全方面犯错误。 但这项工作只有我们大家共同行动才能完成。 当其他人忙着向大气中排放碳时，你无法限制自己的排放。 美国、中国和印度等大国必须参与进来。这将是一些非常艰难的讨价还价，最终你需要足够简单的规则来执行，而那些违反规则的人要么受到羞辱，要么在压力下改变 行为。 谈判并不容易。 他们的目标是在 2009 年之前达成后京都协议。我认为，京都协议将于 2012 年到期。 所以从巴厘岛到哥本哈根之间有两年的时间，中间还有……我现在不记得了，但无论如何，在哥本哈根的两年时间解决了这个问题。 关键是要在巴厘岛顺利启动并制定明确的职权范围。 因此，这次会议非常重要，我预计气候变化将成为下周所有会议的关键议程项目。
你问新加坡能做什么。 我们已经证明，保护环境不仅是一件令人向往的事情。 它还增强了我们的经济。 它促进我们人民的成长和发展。 做得好而且做得及时，这不是以牺牲经济发展为代价的事情。 远非如此。 这是您为了保持长期经济发展而采取的措施。 因此，我们在新加坡拥有一个非常有吸引力的栖息地，这也是我们一直在努力发展的原因之一。
我们能够吸引人们在这里设立总部、把钱放在这里、在这里生活、在这里学习、在这里接受医疗保健。 这是我们成功的一个非常重要的因素。 我不确定各个国家的情况，但该地区的许多其他城市都来这里研究我们的例子，因为他们也想要一个有吸引力的市政环境。
我们需要做的是超越城市层面到国家层面，因为那是做出决策的层面。 全球气候变化协议要求各国（而不仅仅是城市）采取一致行动。 在这方面，新加坡将扮演负责任的角色。 在所有国际论坛上，我们都会发挥积极作用。 我不太确定我们会产生什么影响，因为有很多大国是主要参与者，但如果我们客观、公正，时不时地，我们也许能够帮助弥合分歧。 这是我们在世贸组织中发挥的作用。 我相信这是我们在全球气候变化讨论中可以发挥的作用。
在我们这边，我们正在创建一个城市生活研究所，有这样的名字。 但基本上是为了响应全球对我们保护和改善新加坡环境日益增长的兴趣，鼓励交流并创建一个可以汇集知识的平台，以便每个人都能从中受益。 因此，我们无法告诉我们周围的其他国家应该做什么或可以做什么，但我们可以通过举例和创建平台来帮助传播他们自己认为有用和有帮助的想法。
问：接着，您说新加坡将想方设法帮助其他国家。 我们将通过哪些方式帮助印度尼西亚？
部长：我们将与印度尼西亚人合作，我们将成为主席的朋友，我们将为主席提供帮助。 这就是我们将采取的立场，我已经告诉 Pak Hassan (Wirajuda)，我也已将这一点传达给 SBY 总统，如果印度尼西亚希望我们在任何领域发挥帮助作用，请告诉我们。 我们会尽力而为。
问：他们有提出什么要求吗？
部长：我认为在官员层面，我们了解他们想要实现的目标，我们将通过直接和间接的方式尽力提供帮助。
问： 部长，您刚才说缅甸可能不会在本次峰会上签署，但可能会在以后签署。 也许你可以解释一下这个过程是如何的，因为......
部长：不，他们是来参加峰会的。 那只是假设。 我是说镇压之后，事情还不明朗的时候，我们不太确定会发生什么。
问：所以他们将在峰会上签字，这已经确认了吗？
部长：哦，当然。 你来自 Berita Harian 吗？
问：不，我来自《今日报》。
敏：《今日报》？
问：是的。
问：部长，东盟宪章非常重要。
部长：你是新报社的？ 好的。
问：是的，《东盟宪章》非常重要，但要赢得所谓的民心，你需要像这首歌这样的东西。 那么有东盟国歌吗？ 所以我问你的问题是，写国歌的歌词和宪章的文字哪个更难？
部长：（笑声）我会把它留给那些在这方面更有能力的人。 我的意思是这应该很有趣。 这应该是像欧洲歌唱大赛那样让人期待的事情。 我们需要在东南亚举办类似的文化活动，让我们所有人都期待并享受。
问：接下来，我们是否会为东盟日举办游行或其他活动？
部长：8月8日！ 这是所有国家都承诺庆祝的东盟日。 所以今年，我们举办了由总理主持的大型活动。 然后在Chinggay，我们让所有东盟大使登上了其中一辆花车。
问：这不是假期吗？ 最好宣布它为公共假期。
部长：（笑声）这不是议程项目。
问：我可以回到宪章吗？
部长：好的，请。
问：其中体现了协商一致的原则。 有人说，这阻碍了东盟的前进。
部长：不，不一定。 我们可以一致同意，对于某些决定，我们可以与多数人一起做出，或者对于某些其他决定，一组国家可以首先进行，这是现在载入《宪章》的东盟减X原则的基础。 也就是说，如果按照共同协议，一小部分国家希望首先继续前进，只要他们为我们其他国家稍后加入敞开大门，他们就可以继续前进。 但重要的是，非协商一致行动和决策的规则应该通过协商一致来解决，我们必须共同同意，在某些情况下，我们可以做出不那么一致的决定。 所以现在宪章中启用了这一点。
问：一年的批准期是不是有点太长了？
部长：不，对于一些国家来说，这是一个相当漫长的过程。 昨天，当我与菲律宾大使共进午餐时，她说菲律宾代表大会可能需要一年的时间。 我不熟悉
符合内部程序，但他们必须采取一些步骤。 我希望，一旦我们设定了目标，我们就会努力实现该目标。 这对新加坡来说不是问题，但对某些国家来说可能是问题。
问：根据《宪章》，东盟峰会由每年一次改为每年两次。 做出改变的原因是什么？其他对话伙伴是否也会参与其中？
部长：不，我们外长一致同意，第二次会议应该采取休会模式，并且只是我们之间的会议。 可能是半天或一天，领导人飞来解决重要问题，以便他们的部长和官员能够继续工作。 现在的问题是，有时当我们不能达成一致时，我们会产生更多的研究小组和更多的委员会，结果是浪费时间和资源，而我们最需要的是一个决定。 是啊，不是，如何妥协。 对于某些类型的决策，我们需要领导者来做出。 因此，当我们说每年两次时，我们将确保我们不必等待一整年才能做出决定。 就欧洲而言，领导人每年举行四次会议。 嗯，我认为这是相当多的材料。 非常感谢您的光临。 所以请注意这个空间！
[部长在采访后简要介绍]
部长：你看，67 年，越南战争正处于最激烈的时期。 68 年是春节攻势。 77 年：柬埔寨走向了红色高棉。 87年，越南师威胁要渡过湄公河：柏林墙尚未倒塌。 越南尚未从湄公河对岸撤军，但显然陷入了困境。 97 年：已经团结的东盟面临金融危机。 现在已经是 2007 年了。2017 年会发生什么？
到2017年，我们知道中国和印度将成为主要大国。 到2027年，他们将成为非常强大的力量。 那时我们在哪里？ 如果我们处理得当，我们就会被他们两个束缚住。 他们崛起，我们与他们一起崛起。 我们就在他们相遇的地方，我们从两者中受益，我们帮助维护亚洲的和平。 所以这是非常有意义的。 你永远不能说“如果我们没有这个，如果我们没有东盟，我们会在哪里？” 但这十个国家都得出这样的结论：我们每个人的境况都更好。 如果我们有东盟，我们的生存机会会比没有东盟更高。这才是真正激励我们的因素。 你看，国家的行为不仅仅是出于爱，也不是仅仅出于善意。 各国都受到恐惧和野心的推动。 通常更多的是出于恐惧而不是野心，正是对自己渺小和脆弱的恐惧促使我们所有人来到这里。 这就是政治意愿推动我们所有人前进的原因。
问：你必须留意这个空间。 非常感谢。
部长：谢谢！
Summary of CLUB LUNCH - "A Lunch with Former Singaporean Minister for Foreign Affairs George Yeo"
Date: 9 Mar 2023 12:15 PM — 01:45 PM | Venue: Dining Room
https://www.summarize.tech/www.youtube.com/watch?v=GHHFK6ZXGKM
This is an AI generated summary. There may be inaccuracies.
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00:00:00 - 00:55:00
Former Singaporean Minister for Foreign Affairs George Yeo was the subject of a Club Lunch interview, where he discussed various topics, including the importance of press freedom in Singapore and the benefits of having two strong cities, Singapore and Hong Kong, in China. He also discussed the rivalry between Hong Kong and Singapore and how each city made use of the other's strengths during the pandemic. Yeo shared his thoughts on the nature of the world as a multipolar place and how China has been able to thrive in this environment. He predicted that the Ukraine conflict would help crystallize the multipolar world faster than expected. Other topics covered included the changing nature of the Saudi government, Singapore's relationship with China, and the Bishop Principle which forbids members of different groups from fighting each other.
00:00:00 In this section, the speaker talks about former Singaporean Minister for Foreign Affairs George Yeo, who is one of the speakers at the FCC. George Yeo talks about the events that will be happening on Monday, the 13th of July, and the 16th of July, as well as the upcoming Club Screening of the film "Noordinary Life" on the 3rd of March, and the Battle Box screening of the film "Hong Kong: A History in Pictures" on the 3rd of March. He also discusses the importance of press freedom and the reputation of journalists in Singapore.
00:05:00 In this section, George Yeo, former Singaporean Minister for Foreign Affairs, discusses the benefits of having two cities in China - Singapore and Hong Kong - and how they can help each other stay strong.
00:10:00 In this section, the speaker discusses the rivalry between Hong Kong and Singapore, which is "more alike than they are different". The speaker also describes how during the pandemic, Singapore made use of Hong Kong being closed to drop its mass mandates and attract people down for family offices. While Singapore was not motivated by what Hong Kong did, it did make use of Hong Kong's being trapped in between to survive. The internal Universe was free and open, which was a departure from the norm in China. However, due to the back gate not being open, China was able to take advantage of Hong Kong for a period of time. However, since Hong Kong could not clean up completely, it had to resort to using Shanghai as its back gate. The rivalry between Shanghai and Hong Kong will continue to play different roles for China.
00:15:00 In this section, the author discusses the difficulties in dealing with local populations in Hong Kong and how this has led to a rise of Chinese influence in the city. He also discusses how the Chinese role in Hong Kong has been revised, but in the opposite direction of what was expected.
00:20:00 In this section, George Yeo, the former Singaporean Minister for Foreign Affairs, tells a workshop audience that the world is a "multipolar world" and that the Western world is in a "defensive" state. He discusses how China has been able to stay in the multipolar world for many years and how the West has been unable to maintain its dominance. Yeo predicts that the Ukraine war will help to crystallize the multipolar world faster than expected.
00:25:00 In this section, the speaker discussing former Singaporean Minister for Foreign Affairs George Yeo says that the Russian Federation will move by the end of 2020 if the war doesn't fall, and that if the war does fall, NATO will be forced to escalate. He also says that the stopping point will lead to a partition of Europe of Ukraine.
00:30:00 In this section, the speaker provides an overview of how the Saudi government has changed over the years, and how this has had a significant impact on the country's foreign policy. They also discuss how the recent openings in Saudi Arabia led to a tense relationship with the United States.
00:35:00 In this section, the speaker discussing Singapore's relationship with China discuss the current state of the relationship, as well as the potential for further growth. They also mention the importance of maintaining cultural and ethnic affiliation, and the challenges that this poses for Singaporeans.
00:40:00 In this section, George Yeo, a former Singaporean Minister for Foreign Affairs, tells a Hong Kong audience that, while he is not a PRC citizen, he admires and respects Singapore and its ability to produce people like him who can speak authoritatively about world affairs. He goes on to say that, because the South China Sea has been the commons for centuries, the Chinese claim it should be divided into two halves, with the Chinese side having full access to the sea and the other side having only limited access. He also argues that, if the Taiwan Strait were open to navigation, China would haveClaimed
Transcript of interview with Minister for Foreign Affairs George Yeo by Singapore media representatives
Q: Maybe you would like to start off by telling us the broad objectives and aims of the 40th anniversary and the ASEAN Summit?
Minister: The high point of the summit will be the signing of the ASEAN Charter. When we embarked on this process two and a half years ago at the retreat of the Foreign Ministers, we never expected that we would arrive at this point. We formed an Eminent Persons Group which was launched at the Kuala Lumpur Summit almost two years ago and then when that report was accepted, the High Level Task Force did the drafting which had to address a number of important issues like how are we going to settle disputes among ourselves, whether we wanted a human rights body and so on. But throughout the process, there was more political will than I expected there to be earlier on. And every time we had to confront an issue, no ducking, we made a decision and we moved on. The last bits were cleared when the Foreign Ministers met in New York at the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. So now we have a Charter to sign. Now even though it has not been released officially, copies are available on the website because the Thai parliament had to debate it as part of a new procedure. So it's no longer a secret what's inside. There is no mention of sanctions or expulsions because immediately, officials wondered whether we were referring to a particular situation or a particular country and it was awkward, but in fact what it means is for ultimate issues, it will be referred back to the Leaders when they meet at their Summits. In such situations, the Leaders will act as a committee of peers deciding on their own internal procedures and making their own decisions.
This is not something new. A number of years ago when Myanmar as an issue cropped up, Goh Chok Tong was at that time Prime Minister, he got the leaders to meet in a side room, no officials present, no media coverage, no recording and following which ASEAN began to issue statements calling for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and asking Myanmar to adhere to their own road to democracy. In that sense, Myanmar was also a party to those statements. So for ultimate issues, it's always possible for Leaders to meet and decide among themselves what they want to do. For other issues - governing the implementation of agreements, governing disputes concerning particular ASEAN instruments, then of course more and more we are executing specific disputes settlement mechanisms. So for all economic instruments for example, we have enhanced disputes settlement mechanisms which follow international conventions. Over a period of time, an ASEAN jurisprudence would evolve and countries will see the need for to have lawyers craft agreements carefully anticipating possible disputes and litigation; all this represents an important step forward towards making ASEAN a rules-based and a rules-bound organisation. It will take time but what we are doing now is we are re-setting our direction by a few degrees. Initially, you may ask what's the difference? Well step by step, five years time, ten years time, twenty years time, very different end points for ASEAN.
But whatever rules we devise for ourselves for the most difficult political issues, it is leadership which matters. You take for example the crackdown of peaceful demonstrators in Myanmar few weeks ago. We were not sure at that time whether Myanmar was going to come or not to the Summit. We were not sure what was going to happen to the country but we had no doubt when the Leaders met in Singapore, they would decide, well, whether Myanmar comes or not, we have got to move forward and the Charter would still have been signed. I mean, leaving a space for Myanmar to sign on later when they were ready. So these are contingencies which you cannot write into rules beforehand. What we are saying is, where we can define the situation, we define it, then when we cannot, let's not pretend to be surer than we are; have enabling provisions in the charter and for the most difficult issues, refer them back to the leaders who will then have to draw upon their collective wisdom to find a way forward. So it is a very important milestone in the history of ASEAN.
We've been at it for 40 years, which kept the peace in Southeast Asia and enabled the countries to develop. Singapore has gone from a third world country to a first world country because we have peace around us and now even Vietnam, which used to be on the other side, is making rapid strikes into the future. One can be optimistic for ASEAN as a whole but there are problems like the one we are now facing in Myanmar. We hope Myanmar will not dominate the agenda in the coming meeting. Good progress has been made so far through the good offices of the UN and the Special Advisor Ibrahim Gambari and it was significant, the statement which Gambari read on behalf of Aung San Suu Kyi in Singapore. She took a positive approach and expressed a certain hopefulness about the future and subsequently when she met members of her party in Yangon, when she was allowed to meet members of her own party in Yangon, she said she was very optimistic. That surprised me - her remark, but who are we to second guess her? She who is incarcerated is optimistic. Well, therefore we must be optimistic. For this reason, when Ibrahim Gambari went back to the UN to give his assessment of the last visit, even the US came around and expressed confidence in his good offices. So I believe we are more likely than not to have good meetings in Singapore but the critical meeting will be the first night's informal Leaders' Dinner for ASEAN leaders on the 19th. That's a family dinner, there will be no officials present; there will be no closed-circuit television, it's just the Leaders meeting among themselves. We expect Myanmar to be discussed at that meeting. If we can arrive at a common position, that will be very helpful for the process of national reconciliation in Myanmar, it will mean that we all lined up behind Ibrahim Gambari. And if ASEAN has a unified position, then when the EAS leaders meet on the 21st of November, China, Japan and India will line up with us. I have visited them in order to have this common understanding and I'm quite sure if we have a common position in ASEAN, then they are with us. So the EAS meeting was really made for this because all of them will be there. Of course there are other countries - Australia, New Zealand and Korea. I'm sure they will come along too. PM has invited Ibrahim Gambari to brief us at that meeting. They can exchange views with him, and then the Leaders will be on their own at lunch to discuss Myanmar and other issues. These are on the 21st. And if all the EAS leaders, building around the core ASEAN position can also come out with a statement to support Gambari, to support the process of national reconciliation in Myanmar, calling for a time bound road to democracy, then there are less chances of backsliding after the Summit. Because all the Summit countries will gear up for that position, but if we don't maintain the pressure for forward movement then there could be backsliding, which would be bad for the people of Myanmar, which would be bad for us in Southeast Asia. So if we have a good solid position in the EAS then that enhances our position for the future.
The other issue which took some finessing is the Human Rights Body which we agreed to establish in ASEAN. The problem has been postponed because what matters is the content, which has not yet been decided. So two simple paragraphs, significant not in themselves but significant in the fact that they are in the Charter. We could not call the body a 'commission' which some countries wanted because that suggested more than other countries felt the body should be, so a generic term was agreed upon. There was a debate whether it should be under the Organs chapter or some other chapter. We settled that and put it in under the Organs chapter. There was a debate in the listing of Organs where it should be. We settled that in New York. I don't quite know what we will eventually agree upon given the positions of the newer member states. I doubt if we would have, ... I'm not sure if it will have teeth but it will certainly have a tongue. You know, to paraphrase Bagehot when he wrote in the English Constitution about the British monarch, whether or not it has teeth, the human rights body will have the right to admonish, to criticise, to encourage. It will certainly have moral influence if nothing else. But these are details for the future. Maybe I will end here and I'll take your questions. Yes please, where are you from?
Q: Tze Yong from New Paper.
Minister: New Paper.
Q: For it to be successful, right, the government has to sell the idea of ASEAN to the people, so for the moment without going into the philosophy and the history of Asia and without using a diplomat's language, how would you sell this idea to get them excited on the ASEAN Charter.
Minister: This will take time. If you look at the European experience, it was initially a construction of the elite, of leaders coming together after the Second World War deciding that they should no longer fight one another but should establish a common space for their political integration and economic development. So step by step, deepening and enlarging, and then through various programmes like Inter-Rail, like the ERASMUS programme, facilitating the free movement of people, of scholars, of students, creating a sense of European's citizenship. They are still Frenchmen and Germans and Poles, but there is increasingly among younger Europeans a sense that they are also European citizens. I was chatting with a senior FCO official a few months ago. He was quite open. He said, "My son feels much more European than I do"! The challenge for us is how we get our children to feel more ASEAN than we do. It will take time but step by step as knowledge of ASEAN widens, as we confront crisis together, as we see the advantages of collaboration, then the younger generation will feel more committed to ASEAN and internalise its values and its aspirations.
Coming back to Myanmar again, nothing has done more in recent months to give a sense of relevance to ASEAN among ordinary Singaporeans than Myanmar. Suddenly some of us said "Yes, ASEAN has got something to do about it and ASEAN must be part of the solution." So as we confront crisis from time to time, that will help us define our identity, our common identity. Of course we should also do things like cultural events, dance festivals, scholarships, youth exchanges, song contests, bicycle rides. Do the little things which are fun, which are engaging and gradually get the younger people to feel, "oh this is something worth doing".
Q: Do you think it was a dampener when people felt disappointed in the way ASEAN reacted to the Myanmar situation, when people wanted action; whereas ASEAN reacted saying that we must support Mr Gambari, not to take anymore concrete action than it already had. So do you think in that sense people, you know you got them interested but then yet you put a sort of, it was something that made them disappointed?
Minister: Well, there is a range of views. I think some Singaporeans felt that we should have done more. A few might have wanted us to cut off all links with Myanmar. But there are many Singaporeans who are in fact quite comfortable with the position we are taking, of being firm but staying engaged.
Q: What would you consider a good desired outcome as a Singapore Chair from this Summit?
Minister: In the chair, our responsibility is to receive the ball from the Filipino Chair without dropping it, take it forward and pass it to the Thais who are next in the Chair, without dropping it. So it's not that we are initiating new policies or deciding on big things. We are part of a process in ASEAN and while we are in the chair, we have certain responsibilities to further the common cause and when sudden events come upon us like Myanmar we act responsibly, and that's what we have tried hard to do for this Summit. All we can do is to help facilitate, act out the common will of ASEAN. It's not as if we are taking charge and making decisions on behalf of others. I would say if we can have a good common position on Myanmar and not allow it to cloud or dampen our celebrations of the signing of the Charter, and then work together with our EAS colleagues and culminate in a good celebration of the 30th anniversary of the ASEAN-European relations, then we would have done well.
Q: You've been increasingly travelling to various countries in East Asia. Can you tell us about some of your discussions or your concerns in getting leverage over China and India?
Minister: My visits to Tokyo, Beijing and Delhi were principally to consult on Myanmar. Each had its own perspective. None acting on its own could have been fully effective but if we coordinate and act together, I believe we can play a helpful role in the process of national reconciliation in Myanmar. And this was put to me in a very forthright way by Mr Pranab Murkherjee when I called on his just a few days ago in Delhi. He said it can't just be India and China. It has to be India, China and ASEAN together. And I believe there is enough common understanding for us to make that happen next week.
Q: But we are looking to ASEAN and ASEAN is looking to them.
Minister: We have to work together. ASEAN by itself can't do very much and we have to be very realistic about that, but ASEAN is family so this gives us a moral standing. China and India have long borders with Myanmar. All three of us have a vested interest in the country staying stable and moving onto the road of development in democracy. So on Myanmar, we share fundamentally common interests. Of course China and India eye each other suspiciously because Myanmar is a buffer state between the two countries. And India when it gave Aung Sang Suu Kyi the Nehru prize in the early 1990s, saw its relations with Yangon go down and they are concerned that China has too much influence over Myanmar, so they want a balance. China has built good roads into Myanmar. India is building good roads into Myanmar as well, not just to the border but into cities in Myanmar. If we manage this process well, then by welcoming both we become their meeting place and their connecting point, which is what we should always strive to be in Asia in this century. ASEAN as a collection of ten countries integrated, having excellent relations with both and riding on their growth and development.
Q: In a climate of increasingly vocal opposition and upcoming polls, there is a chance that ruling governments will not last. How do you see this affecting the directions set by ASEAN now?
Minister: It's for people living in the country to determine the form of government they have. This is the principle of respect and non-interference. But of course, no country is autarchic; what happens within a country can have effects on its friends and neighbours. What its friends and neighbours do can have an effect on what goes within the country, so to that extent we are connected. We have an interest, but in the end we must accept that it is up to the people in their country to determine their own destiny. We may do many things about Myanmar, (but) in the end it is the Myanmar people who have to settle their own future. In the end it is the government, the various ethnic groups, Aung Sang Suu Kyi, the NLD, the army, who have to compromise and decide what kind of society and country they ought to be. In the end they suffer the most from the consequences or benefit most from the consequences, depending on the outcome. Yes, please?
Q: Sir, coming back to the Charter, what do you think is the biggest challenge in the implementation of the Charter and what is the significance to Singapore particularly? Another question is the environment agenda will be one of the key deliverables of the Summit this year. How would Singapore share our experience in our greenification and all our experience in the environment with the other dialogue partners?
Min: Your first question about what next after the Charter. The immediate next step is the ratification, which can be a protracted process in some countries like the Philippines. I had lunch with the ASEAN Ambassadors yesterday. I put it to them that we need to set a target for ourselves. One year to get all the countries to ratify the Charter so that in a year's time when we meet in Bangkok, the Charter can come into force. And to mark it there should be a ceremony, an event for everybody to work towards, a way to put pressure on ourselves. The Thais have always been keen for the Charter to be signed in the old Saranarom palace in Bangkok where the original instrument establishing ASEAN was signed 40 years ago on 8th of August. And it will be very symbolic when next year, when all the countries have ratified the Charter, we have a ceremony there to say "Look, yes finally, we are onto a new course and once again we meet in Bangkok to celebrate it", so that's what we're hoping to do. Then beyond that, there will always be disputes and endless arguments over a whole range of issues but that's alright. That's all part of community building that we're always talking. As Churchill once said, "Better jaw, jaw than war, war", and the fact that we have meetings, the fact that we learn to live with one another, that we forge bonds of friendship, camaraderie and trust, that's all part of community building. And that's what in the end will create a sense of ASEAN citizenship.
Your second question is a very important one about the environment and climate change. In fact, it is the organising theme of our conference - "Environmental protection, energy, climate change and sustainable development". There is a very important meeting coming up in Bali in December - the UN Framework Convention for Climate Change which will be chaired by Indonesia and when I called on President SBY last week, I told him that Prime Minister Lee has instructed Cabinet ministers to give full support to that conference. It is a very important conference for the future. It will determine what we as countries on this planet have got to do together to slow down global warming. We know that human activity has contributed to it. We're not quite sure by how much. And if we must err, let us err on the side of safety. But this work can only be done if all of us act together. You cannot restrict your own emissions when others are busily pumping away carbon to the atmosphere. The US, big countries like China and India must be brought in. There will be some very hard bargaining and you need in the end, rules that are simple enough to be enforced and those who are in breach either shamed or put under pressure into changing behaviour. The negotiations will not be easy. They are targeting for the post-Kyoto agreement to be settled by 2009. Kyoto runs out in 2012, I think. So two years between Bali then Copenhagen, and in between... I can't remember now but anyway, two years' time in Copenhagen to settle it. The key is to have a good launch in Bali setting out clear terms of reference. So that meeting is very important and I expect climate change to be a key agenda item at all the meetings coming up next week.
You ask what Singapore can do. We have shown that looking after the environment is not only something desirable. It also enhances our economy. It facilitates growth and development for our people. Well done and done in time, it is not something you do at the expense of economic development. Far from that. It is something that you do to preserve your long-term economic development. So we have in Singapore a living habitat which is attractive and which is one reason why we've been able to attract people to establish headquarters here, to put their money here, to live here, to study here, and to have their healthcare done here. It is a very important element in our success. I'm not sure about countries but many other cities in the region have come here to study our example, because they too want an attractive municipal environment.
What we need to do is to get beyond the level of cities to the level of countries because that is the level where decisions are made. The global agreement on climate change requires countries to act in concert, not just cities. Here, Singapore will be a responsible player. At all international forums, we will play an active role. I'm not quite sure what influence we will have because there are many big countries who are the major players, but if we are objective and fair, from time to time, we might be able to help bridge differences. This is a role that we play in the WTO. I believe that this is a role we can play in global discussions on climate change.
On our side, we are creating an institute for urban living, some such name. But basically responding to growing global interest in the way we protect and enhance the environment here in Singapore, encouraging exchange and creating a platform where knowledge can be brought together so that everybody can benefit from it. So we can't tell what other countries around us should do or can do but we can by example and by creating a platform, help spread ideas that they themselves will find useful and helpful.
Q: Just to follow up, you said that Singapore is going to find ways to help other countries. In what ways will we help Indonesia?
Minister: We will work with the Indonesians and we will be a friend of the Chair and we will be helpful to the Chair. That's the position that we will take and I have told Pak Hassan (Wirajuda) and I have communicated this also to president SBY, that if there is any area where Indonesia would like us to play a helpful role, just let us know. We will try our best.
Q: Have they asked for anything yet?
Minister: I think at the officials' level, we have a sense of what they want to achieve and through direct and indirect we will try to be helpful.
Q; Minister, earlier you said that Myanmar may not sign at this Summit but may sign later. Maybe you can explain how this process is because from...
Minister: No they're coming for the Summit. That was just hypothetical. I was saying that after the crackdown, when things were still unclear, we were not quite sure what was going to happen.
Q: So they are signing at the Summit, that's confirmed?
Minister: Oh yes of course. You're from Berita Harian?
Q: No I'm from TODAY newspaper.
Min: TODAY newspaper?
Q: Yes.
Q: Minister, the ASEAN Charter is very important.
Minister: You're from New Paper? Ok.
Q: Yes, the ASEAN Charter is very important but to win the so called hearts and minds of the people, you need something else like the song. So there's the ASEAN anthem? So my question to you is, is it harder to write the lyrics of the anthem or the words of the Charter?
Minister: (laughter) I'll leave it to those who are more competent in this area. I mean it should be fun. It should be something that people look forward to like the Eurovision song contest. We need to create similar cultural events in Southeast Asia that all of us can look forward to and enjoy.
Q: Following up on that, do we have a parade or some kind of occasion for ASEAN Day?
Minister: August the 8th! That's ASEAN Day which all countries have pledged to celebrate. So this year, we had the big event which PM officiated. Then at Chinggay we had all the ASEAN ambassadors to mount one of the floats.
Q: It's not a holiday right? It's best to declare it a public holiday.
Minister: (laughter) This is not an agenda item.
Q: Can I come back to the Charter?
Minister: Yes please.
Q: The principle of consensus and consultation is enshrined in it. Some people say that it holds ASEAN back from moving forward.
Minister: No, not necessarily. We can by consensus agree that for certain decisions we can go with the majority or for certain other decisions, a sub-group of countries, can proceed first and that was the basis of the ASEAN minus X principle which is now enshrined in the Charter. That is, if by common agreement, a smaller group of countries want to move on first, provided they leave the door open for the rest of us to join later, they can carry on. But it is important for the rules of non-consensual action, of decision-making, should be settled by consensus, that we must together agree that for certain situations, we can go ahead with a less than unanimous decision. So this is now enabled in the Charter.
Q: Is the one year ratification period a bit too long?
Minister: No, for some countries it is quite a protracted process. Yesterday when I had lunch with the Filipino ambassador, she said even one year might be a rush for the Filipino congress. I am not familiar with the internal procedures but there are steps that they have got to take. What I'm hoping is that once we have set that up as a target, we try to meet that target. It's not a problem for Singapore but it could be problem for some countries.
Q: Under the Charter, the ASEAN Summit will be held twice a year instead of once a year. Any reason for the change and will other dialogue partners be involved as well?
Minister: No, the second meeting, we've agreed among the Foreign Ministers, should be in retreat mode and only be a meeting among ourselves. It can be for half a day or a day, the leaders fly in, settle important issues so their ministers and officials can get on with their work. The problem now is sometimes when we can't agree, we spawn more study groups and more committees and the result is a waste of time and resources, when what we may need most is a decision. Yes, no, how to compromise. And for certain kinds of decisions, we need leaders to take them. So when we say twice a year, we will ensure that we won't have to wait a full year for the decisions to be taken. In the case of Europe, the leaders meet four times a year. Well, I think that's quite a lot of material. Thank you very much for coming. So watch this space!
[Minister gives a sound bite after the interview]
Minister: You see in '67, the Vietnam War at its height. '68 was the Tet offensive. '77: Cambodia had gone to the Khmer Rouge. Vietnamese divisions threatening to cross the Mekong '87: The Berlin wall had not yet come down. Vietnam had not yet withdrawn from across the Mekong but was clearly stuck. '97: financial crisis for an already united ASEAN. So now we're in 2007. What will happen in 2017?
By 2017, we know that China and India will be the major powers. By 2027, they will be very big powers. Where are we at that point in time? If we play it right, we'll be tethered to both of them. They rise, we rise with them. We are where they meet, we benefit from both and we help to maintain the peace in Asia. So it's quite significant. You can never say "If we didn't have this, if we didn't have an ASEAN, where will we be?" But each and every one of the ten countries has come to the conclusion that each of us is better off. Our survival chances are higher if we have ASEAN, than if we don't have ASEAN And it is this which is really what is galvanising us. You see, countries do not act out of love, or out of goodwill alone. Countries are impelled by fears, by ambitions. Often more by fear than by ambition and it is a fear of being small and vulnerable that is impelling us all to come here. That's the reason for the political will driving all of us forward.
Q: You've got to watch this space. Thank you very much.
Minister: Thank you!
