风萧萧_Frank
以文会友
为何美国说脱钩，但官员和企业家却频访华？
年初以来，中国不仅迎来了一个接一个的外国元首，欧美企业界的大佬们更是接踵而至，成为中国对外交往的一道风景线。到访中国的均是美国顶级的企业大佬，他们利用访问中国的机会，表达对中国发展前景的信心，向美国政府发出了反对与中国脱钩的一致声音。白宫一心想切断中国和西方的经济、贸易和科技联系，将中国排除出与西方的分工之外，但随着时间的推移，其实现的难度越来越大。在美版知乎Quora上，美国网友提问道：为什么美国大内宣说着对华脱钩，实际上从官员到企业家却频频访华求合作？这引起各国网友的围观和热议。
英国网友舒格•博世的回答
The propaganda and practical interests of the United States often run counter to each other.
美国方面的宣传和现实利益往往背道而驰。
The United States has imported nearly $560 billion in goods from China. Guess what the retail price of these goods is in the United States?
美国从中国进口了近5600亿美元的商品，猜猜这些商品在美国国内的零售价是多少?
$1.567 trillion or close to $1.6 trillion, which means that US importers spend $27.5 to purchase a pair of jeans from China, with a retail price of $69.99; A laptop imported from China has an import price of $700 and a retail price of $1199; A polished ebony table factory produces 6 chairs imported from China, priced at $121 and retail at $249.
1.567万亿美元或接近1.6万亿美元，这意味着，美国进口商花27.5美元从中国购买一条牛仔裤，零售价为69.99美元；一台从中国进口的笔记本电脑进口价700美元，零售价为1199美元；一个抛光乌木桌工厂制造，从中国进口的6把椅子，售价121美元，零售价249美元。
因此，从中国进口的5640亿美元给美国进口商带来了约1.6万亿美元的收入，1.6万亿美元，约占美国GDP的6.5%。
Now let's turn around and think: The United States exports $165 billion to China, guess what their retail value is?
现在我们反过来想：美国向中国出口1650亿美元，猜猜它们的零售价值有多少?
Only $255 billion to $260 billion
只有2550亿到2600亿美元
Why is this happening?
为什么会这样?
From the perspective of market pricing, brand pricing, and technology pricing, China exports low-cost and continuously value-added products.
从市场定价、品牌定价和技术定价来看，中国出口的是低成本、持续增值的产品。
A $37 calf leather wallet with the Gucci brand printed on it, with a retail price of $360;
一个价值37美元的小牛皮钱包，上面印着古驰品牌，零售价为360美元；
A T-shirt with Tommy Hilfiger brand printed on it for $3.10 is now selling for $43.99.
一件3.10美元的印有Tommy Hilfiger品牌的T恤，现在卖到43.99美元。
However, the products exported by the United States have little potential for value enhancement, such as soybeans, wheat, corn, semiconductors, and advanced machinery.
然而，美国出口的产品几乎没有价值提升潜力，大豆、小麦、玉米、半导体、先进机械等。
The value improvement brought by market pricing, brand pricing, or technology pricing is minimal. Even a Boeing aircraft, which earns up to several million dollars in commission to Chinese importers, has earned nearly 100 million dollars for the US economy.
市场定价、品牌定价或技术定价所带来的价值提升微乎其微，即使是一架波音飞机，给中国进口商最多赚几百万美元的佣金，却为美国经济赚了近1亿美元。
Do you understand?
明白了吧?
No country in the world can export goods worth $564 billion to the United States.
世界上没有哪个国家能向美国出口价值5640亿美元的商品。
It is estimated that the manufacturing potential of India, Vietnam, and Mexico in the next decade is three times that of today, and by 2030, they can collectively export goods worth $338 billion.
据估计，印度、越南和墨西哥的未来十年的制造业潜力是目前的三倍，到2030年，它们加起来可以出口价值3380亿美元的商品。
Growing to $226 billion in exports in the 27th year, there are also approximately $700 billion in final retail goods.
增长到27年2260亿美元的出口额，但也有大约7000亿美元的最终零售商品。
If the United States completely decouples from China, even if industrial output in India, Vietnam, and Mexico doubles by 2030, American businesses and entities will significantly decline.
如果美国与中国完全脱钩，即使到2030年印度、越南和墨西哥的工业产出增加两倍，美国企业和实体也将大大下降。
The US economy and its participants will be deprived of $700 billion in value, and by 2030, considering inflation, this number may reach around $1 trillion.
美国经济及其参与者将被剥夺7000亿美元的价值，到2030年，考虑到通货膨胀，这一数字可能会达到1万亿美元左右。
This means a lot of work and a lot of money is gone.
这意味着很多工作，很多钱都没了。
Meanwhile, what about China?
与此同时中国呢?
During the decoupling process, China may lose approximately $564 billion in exports
在脱钩过程中，中国可能损失约5640亿美元的出口
Therefore, even in the worst-case scenario where the United States completely decouples from China and India, Mexico and Vietnam's industrial output has tripled today, China will lose $580 billion, while the United States will lose $1 trillion
因此，即使在最坏的情况下，美国完全与中国和印度脱钩，墨西哥和越南今天的工业产出增加了两倍，中国将损失5800亿美元，而美国将损失1万亿美元
Based on the normal industrial output of these three countries, the United States will lose $2.4 trillion, almost 4.5 times the economic loss of China.
按这三个国家的正常工业产出计算，美国将损失2.4万亿美元，几乎是中国经济损失的4.5倍。
The same goes for the European Union.The same goes for ASEAN. The same goes for India
欧盟也一样，东盟也是如此，甚至印度也一样。
That's why Raymond visited China, and that's why 27 Chinese entities have been removed from the blacklist recently.
这就是雷蒙多访问中国的原因，这就是为什么最近会有27家中国实体被从黑名单中删除。
So far, Western media has been fabricating lies and promoting, while China does not care.
到目前为止，西方媒体一直在编造谎言和宣传，而中国并不在意。
Now, if China decides to retaliate by significantly reducing key exports by $100 billion, and the United States cannot even obtain exports exceeding $30 billion from other countries.
现在，如果中国决定通过大幅削减1000亿美元的关键出口来进行报复，而美国甚至无法从其他国家获得超过300亿美元的出口。
China lost $100 billion, while the US economy lost about $210 billion.
中国损失1000亿美元，而美国经济损失约2100亿美元。
The US economy is expected to grow by 1.8% this year, reaching $470 billion, of which this figure accounts for 44%.
美国经济预计今年将增长1.8%，达到4700亿美元，而这一数字占其中的44%。
雷蒙多
US Commerce Secretary Raymond said:
美国商务部长雷蒙多说：
Please maintain trade relations with China as usual and do not care about what we say in the media. The disputed industries between China and the United States are those worth billions of dollars in trade. Please take the overall situation into consideration and let us maintain a trade balance of the remaining 685 to 690 billion dollars.
请中国和往常一样保持贸易往来，不要在乎我们在媒体上说的话。中美彼此有争议的是那几百亿美元贸易额的产业，请中国顾全大局，让我们保持其余6850 - 6900亿美元的贸易平衡。
That's why American business people frequently visit China and have recently lifted some of the sanctions, decoupling from China and causing much greater losses for everyone.
这就是为什么美国商业和企业界人士频繁拜访中国，并且在最近解除部分制裁措施的原因，与中国脱钩，每个人的损失都要大得多。
德国学者雷•科莫的回答
Simply put, political influence in the First World is purchased with cash.
很简单，在第一世界的政治影响力是用现金购买的。
For example, the last US presidential election cost $15 billion, and this time it may exceed $20 billion to address the upcoming crisis.
例如，美国上次总统选举花费了150亿美元，这次为了解决即将到来的危机可能会超过200亿美元。
Where does the money come from?
钱从哪里来?
As another presidential election year approaches, politicians must begin to appease donors who are dissatisfied with destructive actions that harm their profits in China, whether in terms of direct trade or domestic business.
在又一个总统选举年来临之际，政界人士必须开始安抚那些因破坏性举动而感到不满的捐赠者，这些举动损害了他们在中国的利润，无论是在直接贸易方面，还是在国内大陆业务方面。
This is called lobbying, and petitions (some say demand) are aimed at preventing or reversing the deterioration of the business environment, which has been suppressed by the unprecedented interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, triggering global optimism and a downturn in spending amidst the wave of inflation.
这就是所谓的游说，请愿(有人说是需求)是为了阻止或扭转商业环境的恶化，这种恶化已经被美联储史无前例的加息所抑制，在通胀浪潮中引发了全球乐观情绪和支出的低迷。
Let's clarify the situation this year. The government's current fiscal deficit exceeds 30% to support an economy expected to grow by 1% this year. The debt of US treasury bond+municipal bonds has exceeded 37% of GDP, or 150% of GDP. The inflation rate remains at 5%, while consumer spending is shrinking amidst record breaking credit card debt.
让我们把今年的情况讲清楚。政府目前的财政赤字超过30%，以支撑今年预计增长1%的经济。美国国债+市政债券的债务已经超过了GDP的37%，或者说超过了GDP的150%。通货膨胀率仍维持在5%的水平，而消费者支出在创纪录的信用卡债务中萎缩。
I would like to say that now too many economies are in recession, and the comprehensive outbreak of scientific and technological war, tariffs and sanctions are competing with China's influence, exacerbating the economic difficulties caused by the excessive monetary and fiscal stimulus of the COVID-19 epidemic.
我想说，现在有太多的经济体陷入衰退，全面爆发的科技战、关税和制裁与中国的影响力相抗衡，加剧了因新冠疫情过度货币和财政刺激带来的经济困境。
The United States kindly requests China to take a break while playing the game of selecting global leaders across the Pacific.
美国貌似善意地请求中国，让我们在太平洋彼岸玩挑选全球领导者的游戏时，暂时休息一下。
China stated that, of course, we welcome a pause. Speaking is always better than doing, but remember that you don't have all the cards, because most of the time we are parrying without counterattacking.
中国表示，当然，我们欢迎暂停。说话总比动手好，但记住你不是掌握了所有的牌，因为我们大多数时候都是招架而没有反击。
At the same time, Chinese sources emphasize that signal reconnaissance flights along the coast of China have been suspended, and Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Ching de was unable to receive even a meeting with a well-known political figure during his recent "visit" to the United States. At critical moments, Americans, whether Republican or Republican, can act according to the unspoken script of China and the United States.
与此同时，中国消息人士强调，中国沿海的信号侦察航班已经暂停，而台湾地区民进党候选人赖清德最近在美国“窜访”期间，未能获得哪怕一位知名政治人物的会见。在紧要关头，美国人无论是共和党人还是共和党人都能按照中美心照不宣的剧本行事。
So, while summer is still here, enjoy it to the fullest. It is expected that there will be drastic fluctuations in speech next year, which will become unpredictable and terrifying fluctuations within the United States. But pay special attention to the Chinese people. I think 2024 will be the year when rabbits are pulled out of their magic hats. China will bring some surprises or even scares to the United States, such as news about chips or bombers.
所以，趁着夏天还在，尽情享受吧。预计明年的言论将出现剧烈波动，这将成为美国国内不可预测的、令人毛骨悚然的波动。但要特别注意中国人，我认为2024年将是兔子从魔法帽中被拉出来的一年，中国将给美国带来一些惊喜甚至是惊吓，比如芯片或者轰炸机方面的消息。
美国网友皮特•霍金斯的回答
No matter where you read 'China is collapsing', it's nonsense. I suggest you obtain news from more reputable channels, even Playboy is more accurate than this.
无论你在哪里读到“中国正在崩溃”，那都是胡说八道，我建议你从更有信誉的渠道获取新闻，就连《花花公子》也比这个更准确。
Recently, US officials have visited China several times in a row: first Secretary of State Antony Antony Blinken, then Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen.
最近，美国官员连续多次访问中国:首先是国务卿布林肯(Antony Blinken)，然后是财政部长耶伦(Janet Yellen)。
In addition, US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo has stated that she will use her four day visit to China this week to ensure the easing of tensions while maintaining a firm stance in the confrontation over technology restrictions and Chinese trade practices.
此外，美国商务部长吉娜•雷蒙多(Gina Raimondo)表示，她将利用本周对中国为期四天的访问，确保缓和紧张关系，同时在围绕技术限制和中国贸易做法的对抗中保持坚定立场。
However, this does not mean that "every leader" is visiting China.
不过，这并不能说明“每一位领导人”都在访华。
Raymond, who arrived in Beijing on Sunday, stated that when discussing economic and commercial relations with her Chinese counterparts, she will seek to "protect what we must protect and promote what we can promote".
周日抵达北京的雷蒙多表示，在与中国同行讨论经济和商业关系时，她将寻求“保护我们必须保护的东西，促进我们所能促进的东西”。
The list of discussions includes US export controls that China opposes to restrict the transfer of advanced semiconductors, as well as Chinese regulations and other methods that US officials have described as "unfair" use by Beijing against US companies in recent months.
讨论的清单包括中国反对的限制先进半导体转让的美国出口管制，以及美国官员称中国近几个月来对美国公司“不公平”使用的法规和其他方法。
Raymond will convey similar information to other government officials who have recently visited Beijing, as China describes technological restrictions as part of efforts to suppress China's rise.
雷蒙多将传递与最近访问北京的其他政府官员类似的信息，中国方面将技术限制描述为压制中国崛起的努力的一部分。
Raymond stated that she will explain that these technological controls are aimed at targeting a small number of projects to protect the so-called national security of the United States.
雷蒙多表示，她将解释说，这些技术控制旨在针对一小部分项目，以保护美国的所谓国家安全。
She said that the United States never seeks to break away from the Chinese economy, but rather hopes to maintain strong economic relations.
她说，美国绝不寻求脱离中国经济，而是希望保持强劲的经济关系。
Look, this is reality: the United States and China have a huge, dynamic, and constantly growing economic relationship, which is one of the largest trade relations in the world. Our two countries, in fact, the entire world, need us to manage this relationship responsibly, "Raymond told reporters before departing on Friday.
“看，这就是现实:美国和中国有着庞大、充满活力、不断增长的经济关系，是世界上最大的贸易关系之一，我们两国，事实上，整个世界，都需要我们负责任地管理这种关系，”雷蒙多周五在启程前对记者说。
This is the first visit by the US Secretary of Commerce to China in 7 years. During this period, as the two countries compete for global dominance, their relations have deteriorated to historical lows.
这是美国商务部长7年来首次访问中国。在此期间，随着两国争夺全球主导地位，两国关系已恶化至历史低点。
After new tensions emerged this year due to suspected Chinese balloon incidents and the Ukrainian war, the two governments have been cautiously taking action to restore almost interrupted high-level communication.
在今年因疑似中国气球事件和乌克兰战争而出现新的紧张局势之后，两国政府一直在谨慎地采取行动，恢复几乎中断的高层沟通。
The recent developments in the Chinese economy have brought new impetus to the Chinese side, hoping to repair the relationship between the two countries and prevent a decline in trade and foreign investment. In the current situation, both countries have a need for communication.
中国经济最近的动向，给中国方面带来了新的动力，希望修补两国关系，以防止贸易和外国投资下降。在当前形势下，两国都有沟通的需求。
