中国日报网8月15日电 欧洲盛宝银行的一位分析师认为，能源危机和全球通胀飙升等多重因素冲击英国经济，英国正沦为一个新兴市场国家。
Britain is becoming an 'emergingmarket country'
美国消费者新闻与商业频道报道截图
据美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）报道，盛宝银行近日发布的一份研究报告称，英国“越来越像一个新兴市场国家”。该行的宏观分析主管克里斯托弗·登比克指出，政局不稳、贸易混乱不堪、能源危机和通货膨胀飙升，这些成为英国经济陷入衰退的主要因素。
登比克指出，英国经济崩溃了。这是脱欧没做到的，但在新冠疫情和高通胀的加持下却成功做到了。
在登比克看来，与新兴市场国家唯一的区别，就是英国的货币在英国宏观经济持续走弱的情况下仍然相对稳定和坚挺。
过去一周，英镑兑欧元仅下跌0.70%，与美元的汇率仅下跌1.50%。登比克表示，在经历了英国脱欧的不确定性之后，目前看不到有什么因素能推动英镑大幅下跌。
然而，他指出，除了汇率稳定以外，其他所有主要指标都表明，英国经济将面临更多痛苦。据报道，今年7月，英国新车注册量（通常被认为是英国经济良好的重要指标）减少了14%，从去年7月的183.5万降至152.8万。这是自20世纪70年代末以来的最低水平。
登比克认为，英国经济衰退将是长期而深刻的，想要摆脱尤其不易。这才是最令人担忧的因素。据英国央行预计，英国经济衰退将持续到2025年中期，届时英国GDP仍将比目前的水平低1.75%。
英国央行此前发布警告，由于成本上升冲击经济增长前景，英国经济预计将从今年第四季度开始进入衰退，并将持续五个季度。这将是2008年金融危机以来持续时间最长的衰退期。
英国央行预计，10月的能源价格将进一步上涨75%，而能源价格飙升预计将在今年第四季度将通胀率推高至13%以上，并在2023年的大部分时间里保持在非常高的水平。数据显示，英国6月通胀率已高达9.4%，为40年来最高水平。
（编译：武文洁 编辑：王旭泉）
Britain is becoming an 'emerging market country,' analyst says
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/09/britain-is-becoming-an-emerging-market-country-analyst-says.html
By Elliot Smith Aug 9 2022
- The Bank of England warned last week that the U.K. economy will enter its longest recession since the global financial crisis in the fourth quarter, leading GDP 2.1% lower.
- In a research note Monday, Saxo Bank’s head of macro analysis, Christopher Dembik, said the U.K. is “more and more looking like an emerging market country.”
- The only factor missing from a characterization as an EM country, Dembik said, is a currency crisis, with the British pound holding firm.
Political instability, trade disruptions, an energy crisis and skyrocketing inflation are rendering the U.K. an “emerging market country,” according to Saxo Bank.
The Bank of England warned last week that the U.K. economy will enter its longest recession since the global financial crisis in the fourth quarter, leading GDP 2.1% lower. Meanwhile, inflation is projected to peak above 13% in October.
In a research note Monday, Saxo Bank’s head of macro analysis, Christopher Dembik, said the U.K. is “more and more looking like an emerging market country.”
A new prime minister will be announced Sept. 5 after Boris Johnson’s resignation, with Conservative candidates Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak vying for the keys to 10 Downing St. as the country faces a historic cost-of-living crisis and the sharpest fall in living standards on record.
The U.K.’s energy price cap is set to rise by another 70% in October, pushing energy bills above £3,400 ($4,118) per year and driving millions of households into poverty, with a further increase to the cap expected early next year.
The only factor missing from a characterization as an emerging market country, Dembik said, is a currency crisis, with the British pound holding firm despite the litany of macroeconomic headwinds.
“It only dropped 0.70% against the euro and 1.50% against the U.S. dollar over the past week. Our bet: after surviving Brexit uncertainty, we don’t see what could push the sterling pound into a free fall.”
However, he suggested that all leading indicators point to more pain ahead for the British economy. For instance, new car registrations — often perceived as a leading indicator of the health of the British economy — fell from 1.835 million in July 2021 to 1.528 million last month.
“This is the lowest level since the end of the 1970s. The recession will be long and deep. There won’t be an easy escape. This is most worrying, in our view. The Bank of England assesses the slump will last with GDP still 1.75% below today’s levels in mid-2025,” Dembik said.
“What Brexit has not done by itself, Brexit coupled with Covid and high inflation have succeeded in doing. The U.K. economy is crushed.”
The one solace, according to the Danish investment bank, is that the Bank of England’s expected interest rate hike in September — which would be its seventh in a row — could be the last.
“Outside of the jobs markets, there are signs that some of the key inflation drivers may be starting to ease,” Dembik said.
“In addition, the prospect of a long recession (five negative quarters of GDP starting in Q4 2022 all the way through to Q4 2023) will certainly push the Bank of England into a wait-and-see position.”
The 'social contract is broken'
However, the bank suggested that there are longer-term implications to the current crisis.
“Imagine the graduate entering the workforce in 2009/10, who will have been told this was a once-in-a-lifetime crash. They are now in their early 30s and having yet another once-in-a-lifetime economic crisis,” Dembik said.
“They faced an economy of suppressed wages, no housing prospects, two years of socializing lost to lockdown, obscene energy bills and rent and now a lengthy recession. This will lead to more poverty and despair.”
The Bank of England has projected real household post-tax disposable income will fall 3.7% across 2022 and 2023, with low-income households the hardest hit, and Dembik highlighted the IMF’s recent findings that the U.K.’s poorest households are among the hardest hit in Europe by the cost-of-living spike.
Britain is becoming an ‘emerging market country’
“What Brexit has not done by itself, Brexit coupled with Covid and high inflation have succeeded in doing. The UK economy is crushed.”
by Jack Peat 2022-08-10 in Business and Economics
Political instability, trade disruptions, an energy crisis and skyrocketing inflation is chipping into the country’s reputation on the world stage.
In a research note Monday, Saxo Bank’s head of macro analysis, Christopher Dembik, said the UK is “more and more looking like an emerging market country.”
Citing trade disruptions due to Brexit and Covid-related bottlenecks, he said the only factor missing from a characterization as an emerging market country is a currency crisis, with the British pound holding firm despite the litany of macroeconomic headwinds.
“It only dropped 0.70 per cent against the euro and 1.50 per cent against the US dollar over the past week. Our bet: after surviving Brexit uncertainty, we don’t see what could push the sterling pound into a free fall.”
However, he suggested that all leading indicators point to more pain ahead for the British economy.
For instance, new car registrations — often perceived as a leading indicator of the health of the British economy — fell from 1.835 million in July 2021 to 1.528 million last month.
“This is the lowest level since the end of the 1970s. The recession will be long and deep. There won’t be an easy escape. This is most worrying, in our view. The Bank of England assesses the slump will last with GDP still 1.75 per cent below today’s levels in mid-2025,” Dembik said.
“What Brexit has not done by itself, Brexit coupled with Covid and high inflation have succeeded in doing. The UK economy is crushed.”
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