ranking

2025-11-03

from Internet: 

Because Sinner won the 2024 ATP Finals, while Alcaraz crashed out of the group stage winning only one match out of 3 - therefore, Sinner will lose a lot more points going into the 2025 ATP Finals compared to Alcaraz. In details, with the 2024 ATP Finals point subtracted out, Sinner is at 10,000 vs Alcaraz at 11,050. The math for Sinner to retain #1 works as follows:

1. If Sinner wins undefeated (1,500 points), then Alcaraz must get no more than 400 points. This means winning at most 2 matches in the group stage, and then losing in the semifinal.

2. If Sinner wins the tournament after dropping a match in the group stage (1,300 points), then Alcaraz must win at most 1 match in the group stage.

Unless Alcaraz does a 2024 repeat - which doesn't seem too likely - I'd say the most realistic path for Sinner to remain #1 is that Alcaraz somehow finishes 2nd in the group, then they play each other in the semi and Sinner wins out.