一个有格局的人,对商业有很大的野心,但是对赚钱却尽量克制。

真正的大机会, 把握住一次足以改变境遇;把握住两次将开启全新的人生;把握住三次整个家族都会不同。大多数人早已在各种小折腾中荒废了---水晶苍蝇拍
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查理芒格:投资原则检查清单

(2018-07-04 19:54:47) 下一个

风险——所有投资评估应该从测量风险(尤其是信用的风险)开始


• 测算合适的安全边际
• 避免和道德品质有问题的人交易
• 坚持为预定的风险要求合适的补偿
• 永远记住通货膨胀和利率的风险
• 避免犯下大错;避免资本金持续亏损


独立——“惟有在童话中,皇帝才会被告知自己没穿衣服”


• 客观和理性的态度需要独立思考
• 记住,你是对是错,并不取决于别人同意你还是反对你——惟一重要的是你的分析和判断是否正确
• 随大流只会让你往平均值靠近(只能获得中等的业绩)
 

准备——“惟一的获胜方法是工作、工作、工作、工作,并希望拥有一点洞察力。”

• 通过广泛的阅读把自己培养成一个终生自学者;培养好奇心,每天努力使自己聪明一点点
• 比求胜的意愿更重要的是做好准备的意愿
• 熟练地掌握各大学科的思维模型
• 如果你想要变得聪明,你必须不停地追问的问题是“为什么,为什么,为什么”
 

谦虚——承认自己的无知是智慧的开端


• 只在自己明确界定的能力圈内行事
• 辨认和核查否定性的证据
• 抵制追求虚假的精确和错误的确定性的欲望
• 最重要的是,别愚弄你自己,而且要记住,你是最容易被自己愚弄的人

 

严格分析——使用科学方法和有效的检查清单能够最大限度地减少错误和疏忽


• 区分价值和价格、过程和行动、财富和规模
• 记住浅显的好过掌握深奥的
• 成为一名商业分析家,而不是市场、宏观经济或者证券分析家
• 考虑总体的风险和效益,永远关注潜在的二阶效应和更高层次的影响
• 要朝前想、往后想——反过来想,总是反过来想

 

耐心——克制人类天生爱行动的偏好

 

• “复利是世界第八大奇迹”(爱因斯坦),不到必要的时候,别去打断它
• 避免多余的交易税和摩擦成本,永远别为了行动而行动
• 幸运来临时要保持头脑清醒
• 享受结果,也享受过程,因为你活在过程当中


决心——当合适的时机出现时,要坚决地采取行动


• 当别人贪婪时,要害怕;当别人害怕时,要贪婪
• 机会来临的次数不多,所以当它来临时,抓住它
• 机会只眷顾有准备的人:投资就是这样的游戏


改变——在生活中要学会改变和接受无法消除的复杂性


• 认识和适应你身边的世界的真实本质,别指望它来适应你
• 不断地挑战和主动地修正你“最爱的观念”
• 正视现实,即使你并不喜欢它——尤其当你不喜欢它的时候


专注——别把事情搞复杂,记住你原来要做的事


• 记住,声誉和正直是你最有价值的财产——而且能够在瞬间化为乌有
• 避免妄自尊大和厌倦无聊的情绪
• 别因为过度关心细节而忽略了显而易见的东西
• 千万要排除不需要的信息:“千里之堤,溃于蚁穴”
• 直面你的大问题,别把它们藏起来

 

 

自从人类开始投资以来,他们就一直在寻找能够快速致
富的神奇公式或者捷径。正如你已经看到的,查理的优异业绩并非来自一
道神奇公式或者某些商学院教导的体系,它来自查理所说的“对不停地寻找
更好的思维方式的追求”;通过一丝不苟的准备进行“预付”的意愿;以
及他跨学科研究模式的非凡成果。总而言之,它来自查理最基本的行为守
则,最根本的人生哲学:准备、纪律、耐心、决心。每个因素都是互不相
干的,但它们加起来就变成了威力强大的临界质量(critical mass)能够催化那种因芒格
而闻名的 lollapalooza 效应。

最后,喜欢读英文原文的网友,请看下面:

Risk – All investment evaluations should begin by measuring risk, especially reputational

  • Incorporate an appropriate margin of safety
  • Avoid dealing with people of questionable character
  • Insist upon proper compensation for risk assumed
  • Always beware of inflation and interest rate exposures
  • Avoid big mistakes; shun permanent capital loss

Independence – “Only in fairy tales are emperors told they are naked”

  • Objectivity and rationality require independence of thought
  • Remember that just because other people agree or disagree with you doesn’t make you right or wrong – the only thing that matters is the correctness of your analysis and judgment
  • Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean (merely average performance)

Preparation – “The only way to win is to work, work, work, work, and hope to have a few insights”

  • Develop into a lifelong self-learner through voracious reading; cultivate curiosity and strive to become a little wiser every day
  • More important than the will to win is the will to prepare
  • Develop fluency in mental models from the major academic disciplines
  • If you want to get smart, the question you have to keep asking is “why, why, why?”

Intellectual humility – Acknowledging what you don’t know is the dawning of wisdom

  • Stay within a well-defined circle of competence
  • Identify and reconcile disconfirming evidence
  • Resist the craving for false precision, false certainties, etc.
  • Above all, never fool yourself, and remember that you are the easiest person to fool

Analytic rigor – Use of the scientific method and effective checklists minimizes errors and omissions

  • Determine value apart from price; progress apart from activity; wealth apart from size
  • It is better to remember the obvious than to grasp the esoteric
  • Be a business analyst, not a market, macroeconomic, or security analyst
  • Consider totality of risk and effect; look always at potential second order and higher level impacts
  • Think forwards and backwards – Invert, always invert

Allocation – Proper allocation of capital is an investor’s number one job

  • Remember that highest and best use is always measured by the next best use (opportunity cost)
  • Good ideas are rare – when the odds are greatly in your favor, bet (allocate) heavily
  • Don’t “fall in love” with an investment – be situation-dependent and opportunity-driven

Patience – Resist the natural human bias to act

  • “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world” (Einstein); never interrupt it unnecessarily
  • Avoid unnecessary transactional taxes and frictional costs; never take action for its own sake
  • Be alert for the arrival of luck
  • Enjoy the process along with the proceeds, because the process is where you live

Decisiveness – When proper circumstances present themselves, act with decisiveness and conviction

  • Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful
  • Opportunity doesn’t come often, so seize it when it comes
  • Opportunity meeting the prepared mind; that’s the game

Change – Live with change and accept unremovable complexity

  • Recognize and adapt to the true nature of the world around you; don’t expect it to adapt to you
  • Continually challenge and willingly amend your “best-loved ideas”
  • Recognize reality even when you don’t like it – especially when you don’t like it

Focus – Keep things simple and remember what you set out to do

  • Remember that reputation and integrity are your most valuable assets – and can be lost in a heartbeat
  • Guard against the effects of hubris(妄自尊大) and boredom
  • Don’t overlook the obvious by drowning in minutiae
  • Be careful to exclude unneeded information or slop(污水): “A small leak can sink a great ship”
  • Face your big troubles; don’t sweep them under the rug
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