股票还会涨多久？涨多少？

根据股票专家分析， 缓慢经济恢复阶段股票有上升趋势。 研究发现可能会在30个月上升44％。 也就是说， 牛市可能会持续到明年底。2012 年是选举年， 股票不看好。 Disclosure:  I do not buy stocks, but has mututal funds in 401k.

reference: Yahoo.com finance


--SLOW-GROWING ECONOMY

The economy is growing at a 2percent annual rate, according to the latest estimate by the CommerceDepartment. That's slow by historical standards and shows that the endof the recession 17 months ago hasn't translated into a robust economicexpansion.

Stocks have been in a bull market for 18 months,pushing the Dow up 70 percent since it hit a 12-year low in March 2009.That gain is larger than normal but isn't surprising considering thatthe rally followed the worst financial crisis since the GreatDepression. During slow recoveries like this one, bull marketstypically last 30 months and bring gains of 44 percent overall,according to Ned Davis Research.

Corporate profits are improving,and wealthy consumers are starting to make some costly purchases. Ifthe economy continues to improve, stocks will likely rise. But don'texpect large gains because the economy needs to grow 3 percent or moreto bring down the country's 9.6 percent unemployment rate. That'sunlikely soon because residential and commercial construction remainsweak, and construction fuels economic recoveries.

So what's aninvestor to do given this abnormal year? The best thing may be tofollow your long-term plans regardless of what happens in Washington.

"There'sno way to tell what's going to happen, or we would all be rich," saysPaul Larson, the chief equities strategist at Morningstar.