Goldman Sachs 预测明年2011股票涨势 25% ZT

Goldman Sachs is bullish on the U.S. economy for 2011, and forecasts U.S. stocks will see their third straight year of gains.

Theinvestment banking powerhouse sees the S&P 500 (INDEX: .SPX)gaining nearly 25 percent to a level of 1450 in the next 12 months,fueled by strong corporate profits, easy monetary policies and animproving U.S. economy.

Goldman (NYSE:GS - News)sees stocks gaining as the U.S. economic growth accelerating from 2.5to 4 percent by the end of 2012, but says investors will continue tohave doubt. (Watch comments by Goldman's Chief U.S. Investment Strategist David Kostin in the video clip later in this story.)

"Despitethese many positives, the equity investing landscape is hard todecipher," Goldman's U.S. investment strategy team writes in its 2011U.S. equity forecast, which is headlined "Easy Money, Hard Market."

Investorsremain understandably skeptical about positive economic data, Goldmansays, because the improvement is coming from a fairly low base. But thestrategists argue with strong corporate balance sheets, low inflationand interest rates that "the path of earnings growth has rarely beensmoother."

Goldman is recommending its clientsincrease their investments in cyclical sectors. It continues tooverweight technology, and has raised its outlook on energy andfinancials to overweight from neutral.

Goldman also recommends investors underweight defensive sectors like health care, consumer staples and utilities.

Long U.S. Bank Stocks

Goldman'sglobal investment team rates U.S. Large Cap Commercial Banks among its"Top Trades for 2011." The firm expects financial sector earnings togrow 24 percnet, with the economic recovery leading to improving loandemands and credit trends for the big banks. It also believes the largecap banks will get back to paying dividends in 2011.

The firm recommends clients gain exposure to the sector through the KBW Bank Index (Toronto:BKX.TO - News) or SPDR ETF based on the index (NYSEArca:KBE - News).

Commodities: Gold, Oil Higher in 2011

Goldmanbelieves low U.S. interest rates will continue to underpin the rally incommodities like gold. The firm expects the precious metal futures toclimb to $1,690 an ounce by the end of 2011 and continue to movehigher.

But the firm believes prices willlikely peak at $1,750 an ounce in 2012, as the U.S. recovery will seeinterest rates move higher.

Goldman'scommodities strategists also see oil futures rising to $105 dollars abarrel in 2011, and demand improving along with the U.S. economy. Thefirm notes, "Energy is historically the best performing sector when theISM is above 50, which seems increasingly likely given strong OctoberISM and our US economists upgrade to their 2011 growth outlook."