如何从股市中赚钱：耐心和纪律最重要

编者前言：

如果你相信这篇文章的统计结果，你就应该明白，要想在股市中长期获利，操作技巧和趋势预测都不是最重要的，唯有正确的思想意识才是投资的最高境界，这其中又以耐心和纪律最为重要。而所谓“纪律”就是一旦确立自己的信号系统，经过历史数据和实时交易的反复验证，如果它的成功概率非常大，你就要坚持不懈、持之以恒地运用它。不要听到个什么消息，或者看到走势图的“异常”波动，就贸然行动，完全不顾当时有没有进场交易的信号。这种耍小聪明的心态最终肯定要输，因为这又回到了计算概率的问题上：你凭什么就知道这笔交易肯定会赢？你听到的消息或者看到的图表是否经过历史的反复验证？它的成功概率有多大？如果你不能肯定地回答这些问题，你就不要进场交易，因为你纯粹是在赌博，这一次或许可以侥幸过关，但这种心态最终会让你两手空空。

Many Roads to Riches

By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch.com, July 16, 2003

When I started tracking investment newsletters on June 30, 1980, I thought my research would provide answers to what previously had proven to be intractable investment questions:

- Is fundamental analysis better than technical analysis?
- Is successful market timing possible?
- Is buy-and-hold better than in-and-out trading?

Twenty-three years later and I am no closer to answering these questions.

But one thing has changed. I now believe that it is good news that these questions do not get answered once and for all.

After all, if there were only one road to riches, it would get awfully crowded.

Consider the multiplicity of approaches that are represented by the newsletters whose model portfolios, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest, have made the most money over the last 23 years.

At the top of the list is a newsletter that advocates the long-term buying and holding of good quality stocks. The average holding period of positions in the first of this newsletter's model portfolios is nearly six years. Neither market timing nor technical analysis plays an apparent role.

Lest you conclude that this newsletter's performance provides clear and unambiguous answers to the age-old investment questions, consider the second-place newsletter.

Its approach involves a combination of both fundamental and technical analysis, as well as market timing. The average holding period of its recommended stocks is less than six months. And in third and fourth place are newsletters whose approaches are based exclusively on technical analysis.

It is difficult to think of a group of top performers with more disparate approaches.

But that's not all. Clouding the picture even more are the newsletters at the bottom of the rankings. At the very bottom is a newsletter whose approach is primarily, if not exclusively, technical. But right above it is a newsletter that relied only on fundamental analysis.

Above that one is yet another newsletter that employs a combination of both technical and fundamental analysis.

In fact, after 23 years, I am now inclined to believe that almost any of the major approaches to investing can - in the right hands - be successful. Yet in the wrong hands, those same approaches can be big disappointments.

This insight leads to the drawing of an important Investment Lesson: The choice of investment approach is less important than what you or I add to the equation when following it.

What is this something else that can make all the difference between success and failure? Though a full discussion of why I think so is beyond the scope of this column, I believe the answer is discipline.

Discipline is what keeps us from reacting impulsively and emotionally to what happens in our portfolios. What separates the adults from the children in the investment world, so to speak, is a willingness to stick to a strategy during those temporary times it may be out of synch with the market.

I recognize that a plea for discipline is not nearly as exciting as a bold prediction about which way the market is going to go or which stocks will double overnight.

Call it boring if you will. But, regardless, discipline is the key to your long-term investment success.

This is as true today as it was in 1980. And I'll bet it will be just as true 23 years from now.

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