股票技术分析大师谈技术分析

原载于“谈股论金”群组 http://groups.wenxuecity.com/groupview.php?gid=60

谈到股票技术分析，不能不谈到归功于日本本间宗九的阴阳蜡烛图；谈到阴阳蜡烛图，不能不谈到Steve Nison 的《Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques》。这本经典著作阐述了阴阳蜡烛图分析的各方面。然而全书的精华却是人们往往跳过不读的导言。

摘录其中一节：

The importance of technical analysis is five-fold. First, while fundamental analysis may provide a gauge of the situations, price/earnings ratios, economic statistics, and so forth, there is no psychological component involved in such analysis. Yet the markets are influenced at times, to a major extent, by emotionalism. An ounce of emotion can be worth a pound of facts. As John Keynes stated, "there is nothing so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irrational world.” Technical analysis provides the only mechanism to measure the "irrational" (emotional) component present in all markets. Here is an entertaining story about strongly psychology can affect a market. It is from the book The New Gatsbys.  It takes place at the Chicago Board of Trade.

Soybeans were sharply higher. There was a drought in the Illinois Soybean Belt. And unless it ended soon, there would be a severe shortage of beans. . . . Suddenly a few drops of water slid down a window. "Look," someone shouted, "rain!"  More than 500 pairs of eyes [the traders-editor's note] shifted to the big windows. . . . Then came a steady trickle which turned into a steady downpour. It was raining in downtown Chicago.

Sell. Buy. Buy. Sell. The shouts cascaded from the traders' lips with a roar that matched the thunder outside. And the price of soybeans began to slowly move down. Then the price of soybeans broke like some tropic fever.

It was pouring in Chicago all right, but no one grows soybeans in Chicago. In the heart of the Soybean Belt, some 300 miles south of Chicago the sky was blue, sunny and very dry. But even if it wasn't raining on the soybean fields it was in the heads of the traders, and that is all that counts [emphasis added]. To the market nothing matters unless the market reacts to it. The game is played with the mind and the emotions.

In order to drive home the point about the importance of mass psychology, think about what happens when you exchange a piece of paper called "money" for some item like food or clothing? Why is that paper, with no intrinsic value, exchanged for something tangible? It is because of a shared psychology. Everyone believes it will be accepted, so it is. Once this shared psychology evaporates, when people stop believing in money, it becomes worthless.

全书中Steve Nison反复强调市场心理情绪以及主观经验的重要性，这种建立在感悟上的东方模糊思维和建立在参数上的西方明析推断相映成趣。

有趣的是， Steve将群体心理学写成mass psychology， 而不是crowd psychology.  Mass 是一个远为中性的词，其为人之谨慎中和可见一斑。

取法乎上，仅得其中。别人从他的书中断章取义，编成速成教材，只坏了许多发财梦。