07/15/2009：市场评论

07/15/2009：市场评论

惨烈的轧空行情。证明了上周的快速深幅下跌是一个大的Bear Trap。

ES在ET 8：30am带罕见量11K+上扬确定盘前基调。SPX跳空10点开盘。全天成有规律的（小幅突破，窄幅盘整）的稳健上涨形态。在ET 3pm突破前期阻力线931，然后窄幅横盘至收盘。

INTC开盘在欧洲交易收盘的+6%，17.99，开盘就突破
AAPL开盘在主要阻力线145
CSCO跳空开盘在50SMA之上
MSFT跳空开盘在20SMA之上
GOOG/AMZN也是跳空开盘

GS开盘就越过了主要阻力线150
IBM在上周Bear Trap连续探测100SMA并获得支撑，今天跳空开盘在20/SMA和50SMA之上，光头光脚大阳线
BAC刚刚稳定在200SMA上，可能会走出JNJ的行情，也就是稳定在200SMA后，立刻连续上涨。
JPM跳空开盘在50SMA之上

指数和个股全天都是（小幅突破，窄幅盘整）的稳健上涨形态。日线图上今天的向上跳空大涨使得DJI/NDX/SPX都是明显的岛型反转。7月2日向下跳空下跌至昨天7月14日共8个交易日组成深幅岛型Bear Trap。

ES在股市收盘前5分钟放出112k个合约的巨量，实属罕见，而且全天Regular时段的5分钟成交量绝大多数不超过15k和30k。这个5分钟成交把ES从930.25打低到928.25，而全天ES最高为40分钟之前的930.75。这令人推测下面OE前的两天会有（至少日内）较大波动，方向则不明。所以要平仓所有这周OE的Call。

ES在股市收盘后Reopen有3k成交量和5k成交量两个打低动作。

GS/AAPL/INTC创3月份上涨以来的新高，预示着后市可期。

这是一个新的Up Trend的起始，SPX要突破950，下一站1000。

PS：

今日XLNX 跳空开盘放量阴线。+0.83，日成交量11.2M。盘后ER，-1.06，AH成交量98k。从成交量12.2M。

JPM盘后上涨0.34，成交量1.3M，日总成交量83.9M。

下面关注点：明天星期四盘前JPM ER，盘后GOOG/IBM ER；后天星期五OE day盘前C/BAC/GE ER。

XLNX ER：

SAN JOSE, Calif. (AP) -- Chip maker Xilinx Inc. said Wednesday its first-quarter profit declined 56 percent, hurt by restructuring charges and lower revenue.

For the three months ended June 27, the company earned $38 million, or 14 cents per share, down from $86.3 million, or 31 cents per share, in the same period a year earlier. The latest quarter's results include charges totaling 7 cents per share. Excluding items, the company would have earned 21 cents per share.

Revenue fell 23 percent to $376.2 million from $488.2 million.

Analysts, on average, were expecting a profit of 19 cents per share on sales of $381.4 million, according to a poll by Thomson Reuters. Analysts typically exclude one-time items from their estimates.

The company said it expects sales to grow about 2 percent to 6 percent sequentially. Analysts, on average, are predicting sales of $381.9 million for the fiscal second quarter, a decline of less than 2 percent.

Shares fell $1.12, or 5.4 percent, to $19.54 in after-hours trading. The stock had closed up 83 cents, or 4.2 percent, at $20.66 amid a broader market rally following strong quarterly results from chip maker Intel Corp.