2006/05月->07月->10月:行情转变的波段分析及对目前行情的展望

Topics and outlines:

1. SP500  down percentage 05->07
1a.SP500 major down sectors' contribution
1b.SP500 relatively strong sectors
2. SP500  up percentage 07->10
2a.SP500 major up sectors' contribution
2b.SP500 relatively weak sectors
3. SP500 sector rotation: relationship between 05->07 relatively strong sectors and 07->10 leading sectors

4. NDX down percentage 05->07
4a.NDX major down stocks' contribution
4b.NDX relatively strong stocks
5. NDX up percentage 07->10
5a.NDX major up stocks' contribution
5b.NDX relatively weak stocks
6. NDX Lagging/leading rotation: relationship between 05->07 strong stocks and 07->10 leading stocks

7. When the index falls to a major down trend or consolidation, how can it happen? Which stocks/sectors lead the down trend/consolidation? Are they leading/consolidating/lagging stocks/sectors in the previous consolidating/up trend?

Conclusion:
1) Buy stocks/sectors that are relatively strong in the last index downtrend or consolidation when the index bottoms out or is about to bottom out
2) NDX major stocks in the 2nd class such as BRCM/ADBE/YHOO fluctuate much more
3) NDX major stocks in the 1st class such as CSCO/AAPL/INTC must contribute significantly in order to make NDX fluctuate measurablely

对目前行情的展望:
1) Strong stocks in the last down trend have been leading sector/stocks in the current up trend and they are still strong
2) Weak stocks in the last down trend or in the strong 07->10 up trend have consolidated enough and are bottoming out
3) Conclusion: the market will go up higher after the current consolidation

Details will be followed.