2006/08/28 关于市场的随想

2006/08/28 关于市场的随想

I think it will go up this week and then down next week.
Rumors on how high AAPL and GOOG could be make me cautious on being too bullish.

The fact that spx has been well above 1290 in the past 8 days and that XLF didn't overract makes me think the market inside is truely strong. Pharmaceutical sector has been super strong, so does oil sector.

I am thinking by the end of sepetmer or early october the market should touch somewhere around the high in early May. Regarding if it can go even higher in Xmas rally, it's beyond the current vision scope.

The thing I am a little bit worried is that the time window doesn't support a short bull run in the next several days. But the market is essentially strong as my method tells.

When both PFE and MSFT reach $29/$28 respectively some time, the market will go bear or a major correction.

金融板一旦（而且正在）突破，指数得要自然地涨一大节。而且金融板目前还不是尖锐地涨。这意味着调整之后，还要涨一次。传统上，9月是最熊的季节。有点矛盾。但还是尊重看盘经验吧。
 
交易量对金融板和XOM/GE/PG等股没有参考价值。这些股的换手率相对极低，而且option open interests很小。完全是操纵市场的杠杆。现在市场总的成交量很小是个问题。但个人感觉问题不是很大，因为去年11月初交易量也不大。如果这次向上突破是带大量的话，我觉得后市反而要跌了。